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Linsanity 2.0? (Tzu-Wei Lin)
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Post by jmei on May 12, 2017 10:27:58 GMT -5
Tzu-Wei Lin got a write-up in Carson Cistulli's fringe five prospects at Fangraphs today ( link): With that said, here's a snippet from a recent scouting report from our own Ian Cundall ( link) which is less glowing: Hard to believe that this power surge is all real, but the drastic change in his profile is intriguing. He's gone from a low-strikeout (historically in the 10-15% range), high-ground ball, no-power profile to a higher-strikeout, fly ball, flashes of real power profile. Add to that his being exposed to other defensive positions (in addition to the infield, he's been playing center field), it puts him back on the prospect map for me.
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Post by jimed14 on May 12, 2017 10:55:24 GMT -5
I wonder how he handles high fastballs now? Have a strong feeling that the new holes in his swing haven't been exploited yet.
Good to see though, because changing his swing was his only chance.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 12, 2017 11:33:49 GMT -5
Thanks for the links. This must have to do with coaching, no? For the approach to have changed that drastically, there has to have been a re-working of the overall approach and that's what hitting coaches are for.
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Post by Guidas on May 12, 2017 12:15:34 GMT -5
Thanks for this - missed it. The progress is good to see, but I'm always a bit suspicious when a player is having success while repeating a level. Still, let's see if he can carry this forward.
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Post by cologneredsox on May 13, 2017 12:05:28 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2017 10:53:48 GMT -5
Lin makes another appearance on Cistulli's fringe five ( link):
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2017 11:22:00 GMT -5
Do we have continued evidence of advanced bat-to-ball skills since he got back? Since he came off the DL, in 6 games, he's 5 for 16, all singles, with 3 walks to 2 strikeouts.
In his 6 games back: 5/19: F9, 3-1, 1B (LD to rf), 1-3 5/20: pinch ran/defensive replacement, no plate appearances 5/21: 1B (LD to CF), 4-3, BB, Ksw 5/23 (1): F7, BB, 1B (LD to CF) 5/23 (2): 1B (LD to RF), F8, BB, FC 6-4 (productive out - RBI) 5/24: 1B (LD to RF), 3-1, P5, Ksw
So the 5 hits are all line drives. 3 flyballs. 1 popup. 5 groundballs. So perhaps we do. I'd like the power to come back though - well-struck base hits in front of the outfielders (which these may or may not be, of course) aren't the "advanced bat-to-ball skills" that I'd hope to see from him if we're really seeing a change there.
I can telegraph that he is going to be ranked this month, probably in the 40-50 range.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2017 11:38:39 GMT -5
Two strikeouts in 19 PAs seems like advanced bat to ball skills to me. In my mind, that phrase just implies contact, not necessarily quality contact.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 26, 2017 11:56:00 GMT -5
If hypothetically Lin keeps putting up the same numbers over another 200-300 plate appearances, where would that put him in the prospect ratings? I'm thinking 6th in front of Chatham.
How does Lin profile defensively vs Chatham?
I had watched film of Lin early on and he looked great aside for some error issues, has he cleaned those up?
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Post by jimed14 on May 26, 2017 12:05:29 GMT -5
If hypothetically Lin keeps putting up the same numbers over another 200-300 plate appearances, where would that put him in the prospect ratings? I'm thinking 6th in front of Chatham. How does Lin profile defensively vs Chatham? I had watched film of Lin early on and he looked great aside for some error issues, has he cleaned those up? I think he's more likely to go on a super utility path than every day shortstop, but I guess we could be looking at one of the most dramatic turnarounds ever for a prospect. It would be hard to rank a super utility prospect. I don't think the defensive value for a super utility player has been established.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2017 13:32:32 GMT -5
If hypothetically Lin keeps putting up the same numbers over another 200-300 plate appearances, where would that put him in the prospect ratings? I'm thinking 6th in front of Chatham. How does Lin profile defensively vs Chatham? I had watched film of Lin early on and he looked great aside for some error issues, has he cleaned those up? What do you mean by "the same numbers?" The .337/.424/.512 line? Even with that I can't justify him that high. Not to compare them just because they're both Taiwanese, but that would remind me of this guy, who went nuts in his second year in Portland then turned back into Clark Kent: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=chiang001chiDrastically different profiles - LF-only vs. utility guy with good glove - but top 20, for sure, sounds right. Probably top 15. Top 10 would depend on what else happens with other guys and who comes and goes.
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Post by ramireja on May 26, 2017 13:46:44 GMT -5
If hypothetically Lin keeps putting up the same numbers over another 200-300 plate appearances, where would that put him in the prospect ratings? I'm thinking 6th in front of Chatham. How does Lin profile defensively vs Chatham? I had watched film of Lin early on and he looked great aside for some error issues, has he cleaned those up? What do you mean by "the same numbers?" The .337/.424/.512 line? Even with that I can't justify him that high. Not to compare them just because they're both Taiwanese, but that would remind me of this guy, who went nuts in his second year in Portland then turned back into Clark Kent: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=chiang001chiDrastically different profiles - LF-only vs. utility guy with good glove - but t op 20, for sure, sounds right. Probably top 15. Top 10 would depend on what else happens with other guys and who comes and goes.I agree with this, but the initial idea that he might be hitting .337/.424./.512 in 300 PA is extremely unlikely in my opinion. Its really such a drastic departure from his past....he's never reached an OPS of .700, and hadn't even reached .600 in his past two seasons at AA. Remember, this is his third season (albeit 2nd full) at AA. That said, at 23 he isn't necessarily old for the level, and the data suggests he seems to have made changes to his approach/swing plane that could represent 'real' changes moving forward. He needs a large sample size in my opinion, and yes even then, best case scenario he breaks in the top 20 or 15.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 26, 2017 15:24:16 GMT -5
Is the 'utility' label due to him not sticking as a full time shortstop defensively? Or simply because he has played multiple positions to increase his value?
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2017 15:35:17 GMT -5
I agree that I need to see more of a track record before I get too excited here, but he's at least put himself back on the prospect map, and he doesn't have to hit much to at least make the majors as a utility type.
I'd like to see updated scouting of his defense, especially at the non-SS positions. Above-average defensive shortstops, when moved to other positions, usually defend pretty well at those new positions, but that's not always true, and Lin has only just started moving off SS.
I'll also note that he's been injured a fair amount in his career, which may be a result of his small/undersized frame-- something to watch for. He'll also be Rule 5 eligible this winter, which may be a tough decision depending on how the rest of the season shakes out.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2017 15:40:43 GMT -5
Is the 'utility' label sure to him not sticking as a full time shortstop defensively? Or simply because he has played multiple positions to increase his value? It's because no one really thinks (thought?) he would hit well enough to be a starter at shortstop. Defensively, he's regarded as above-average there. You raise a fair point, though-- if he doesn't hit well enough to be a borderline starter at SS, is he really much of a utility player? But as Marrero is illustrating now, sometimes you just need a guy who can hold his own defensively at a bunch of positions on an MLB bench.
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Post by telson13 on May 26, 2017 17:09:56 GMT -5
If hypothetically Lin keeps putting up the same numbers over another 200-300 plate appearances, where would that put him in the prospect ratings? I'm thinking 6th in front of Chatham. How does Lin profile defensively vs Chatham? I had watched film of Lin early on and he looked great aside for some error issues, has he cleaned those up? I think he's more likely to go on a super utility path than every day shortstop, but I guess we could be looking at one of the most dramatic turnarounds ever for a prospect. It would be hard to rank a super utility prospect. I don't think the defensive value for a super utility player has been established. In fairness, he signed for a huge amount. He just did the old school "hit it on the ground" thing because of his speed way too long.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2017 17:32:17 GMT -5
I think he's more likely to go on a super utility path than every day shortstop, but I guess we could be looking at one of the most dramatic turnarounds ever for a prospect. It would be hard to rank a super utility prospect. I don't think the defensive value for a super utility player has been established. In fairness, he signed for a huge amount. He just did the old school "hit it on the ground" thing because of his speed way too long. For what it's worth, the size of his bonus was, in part, due to the fact that he signed days before the last CBA kicked in that instituted the IFA caps. He had a TON of leverage. "Want to use your financial leverage? You better get me under contract before July 2." To the converse, he also had every incentive to sign before then as well, so it's not like he had teams over a barrel, but no team's going to haggle over a few hundred K in that situation.
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Post by ramireja on May 26, 2017 17:42:59 GMT -5
MLB.com had him ranked as the 18th best IFA that year. (Wendell Rijo was #5)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2017 10:20:50 GMT -5
MLB.com had him ranked as the 18th best IFA that year. (Wendell Rijo was #5) Right, but if you look, that was the class after the one he technically signed with, and if you look at the one he did sign in, he tied Mondesi for the fifth-largest bonus (presuming nobody big signed between March and June that year). www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613091.htmlDidn't mean to say he was a nobody, so sorry if it came off that way. I just mean that in a typical year, I bet he'd probably have gotten half of what he did, if even that.
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Post by jmei on Jun 23, 2017 14:19:17 GMT -5
Some Tzu-Wei Lin updates from Eric Longenhagen ( link) and Carson Cistuli ( link), both of Fangraphs. The Longenhagen article is particularly interesting as it includes a video comparison of his new swing (from his 5-for-5 night a few days ago) and his old swing and the following snippet:
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 23, 2017 14:28:04 GMT -5
Some Tzu-Wei Lin updates from Eric Longenhagen ( link) and Carson Cistuli ( link), both of Fangraphs. The Longenhagen article is particularly interesting as it includes a video comparison of his new swing (from his 5-for-5 night a few days ago) and his old swing and the following snippet: I'm praying he can fill the Brock Holt role in September. We were so spoiled with Holt.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 23, 2017 14:59:11 GMT -5
Some Tzu-Wei Lin updates from Eric Longenhagen ( link) and Carson Cistuli ( link), both of Fangraphs. The Longenhagen article is particularly interesting as it includes a video comparison of his new swing (from his 5-for-5 night a few days ago) and his old swing and the following snippet: I'm praying he can fill the Brock Holt role in September. We were so spoiled with Holt. There's next to no chance of that. He's barely playing positions other than SS - he's gotten all of 6 games in CF and 2 at 2B this year. For his career he's played 11 games in CF, 36 at 2B, and 18 at 3B compared to 397 at SS. As much lip service as the Red Sox may have given him as a "utility guy," they're doing it behind the scenes if they are at all.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 24, 2017 14:33:18 GMT -5
Insanity reaches Boston!
Rutledge to the DL.
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2017 14:42:04 GMT -5
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Post by bigpapiortiz on Jun 24, 2017 14:42:44 GMT -5
Very cool!
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