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Post by bookiemetts on May 18, 2017 15:45:33 GMT -5
Well about 5 days ago I don't think that this would have been considered a "ridiculous" discussion. Bradley was hitting .176 and the Sox had the 28th ranked offense...unable to score. I think you guys are being a little hard on demainah. I am a Bradley fan mesmerized by his white hot streaks and engaging personality....but boy he can be a black hole. Does anyone know what happens to his swing that leads to such dry periods? Is he that finely tuned that he implodes when a hair is out of place? Ok yeah the ridiculous might have been a bit much from me. Anyway I did a little looking and it seems like his slumps coincide with a jump in GB%:
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Post by dnfl333 on May 18, 2017 18:24:22 GMT -5
It's flummoxing to see this wave of complaints about Bradley. The guy has always been streaky to the extreme at the dish. His defensive efforts contribute to some of the best up-the-middle work in the big leagues, and that should never be forgotten. As a 7/8/9 hole hitter, Bradley is a damn valuable everyday player. I'm expecting another hot streak from Jackie, as he's driving the ball with authority to center and left-center again. A......men!
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Post by dnfl333 on May 18, 2017 18:25:04 GMT -5
Long as it takes. Problem with Jackie might be John
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 18, 2017 18:47:25 GMT -5
When JBJ came back from his knee injury he hit .081/.150/.081 with a .115 babip over 40 plate appearances. He only struck out in 27% of those PA, so not awful. 8 of his 26 balls hit were 97+ mph, 31%, league average. Of those 8 he went 2-8 with 2 singles. Shit luck. The quality of his contact this year has been phenomenal, and has got better in May than April. At the end of the day he's a Top 15-20 OF in baseball.
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Post by James Dunne on May 19, 2017 8:02:31 GMT -5
Long as it takes. Problem with Jackie might be John As in Farrell? As in the same manager who Bradley had last season? Okay.
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Post by mandelbro on May 19, 2017 9:03:33 GMT -5
Well about 5 days ago I don't think that this would have been considered a "ridiculous" discussion. Bradley was hitting .176 and the Sox had the 28th ranked offense...unable to score. I think you guys are being a little hard on demainah. I am a Bradley fan mesmerized by his white hot streaks and engaging personality....but boy he can be a black hole. Does anyone know what happens to his swing that leads to such dry periods? Is he that finely tuned that he implodes when a hair is out of place? I think his profile as a hitter lends itself to streakiness. He's a LHH pull hitter who doesn't put the ball in play much, and when he does, hits plenty of ground balls. When he lifts the ball he does damage. Over the last three seasons he has a BABIP of .302, and his true talent BABIP is probably .290-.300. So he produces a lot on a few of his swings (ISO of .222 in the last 3 seasons) and very little on most of his swings (high K rate and low BABIP). And when some of those productive swings happen at the same time it makes his overall stat line fly around.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2017 9:11:41 GMT -5
1. Development is not linear. It's easy to forget that.
2. Also easy to forget, but Bradley is still just 27 and will be all year. He is only just about to get into his prime. Combine this with the above and it's not crazy for him to still be learning and figuring things out.
I wouldn't be upset to see Young play against the toughest LHP (Young's carrying a strange reverse split this year, but likely due largely to luck as he has a .200 BABIP despite a 33% line drive percentage against lefties), but this isn't like when Bradley had a .531 OPS in 2014 and was basically the worst hitter in baseball, among regulars at least.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 19, 2017 9:27:13 GMT -5
Long as it takes. Problem with Jackie might be John As in Farrell? As in the same manager who Bradley had last season? Okay. In case you haven't noticed, the poster has a long standing crusade to rid the organization of the scourge of John Farrell.
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Post by bspeed on May 19, 2017 9:30:53 GMT -5
I am as big a Sox fan as anyone but I am always amazed how some fans think that every player on the field is going to hit .300/25/100 every year.
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Post by thursty on May 19, 2017 10:06:11 GMT -5
One should be careful at just referencing raw EV as a surrogate for some true batting skill - many GBs are hit very hard (even over 100) and have very small hit probability.
Bradley has always had an abnormally low IFH% (~ 6% and 4% this year), partly because of the shift and partly because of his mediocre speed.
Bogaerts, the King of BABIP, has a career 10% IFH%
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2017 11:09:44 GMT -5
As in Farrell? As in the same manager who Bradley had last season? Okay. In case you haven't noticed, the poster has a long standing crusade to rid the organization of the scourge of John Farrell. Maybe he's trying to undermine all of the valid arguments for doing that.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on May 19, 2017 11:24:52 GMT -5
I've always thought of JBJ as Mike Cameron. Great glove, power, but he's probably always going to K a lot. And he might be a .240 career hitter, with an unusual level of variation season to season. He might hit .290 one year and .220 another.
All this is to say, I love JBJ. Yes, when he's cold it can be painful, but when he's hot? Great. And through the peaks and valleys, he's a great fielder, and he appears to be a hard worker, good guy, etc. I hope he mans center for the next decade.
And... for all the slumps and slow starts across the young outfield, it is hard to say BBB have been the problem for the Sox this year.
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 19, 2017 21:03:34 GMT -5
One should be careful at just referencing raw EV as a surrogate for some true batting skill - many GBs are hit very hard (even over 100) and have very small hit probability. Bradley has always had an abnormally low IFH% (~ 6% and 4% this year), partly because of the shift and partly because of his mediocre speed. Bogaerts, the King of BABIP, has a career 10% IFH% Hitting the ball hard isn't a "true batting skill?" 95+ mph grounders have a .424 league batting average this year, .385 for JBJ.
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Post by thursty on May 20, 2017 8:08:51 GMT -5
Yes. Are you unaware of the launch angle revolution? One can hardly turn around without reading a story of the latest hitter renaissance due to hitting more flyballs (Donaldson, Martinez, Alonso, et al). Plus direction and even spin. Hanley Ramirez consistently leads (maybe excepting Ortiz) the Red Sox in average EV - is he the best hitter on the team? I think not. Whatever ails Bradley, I don't think the solution is for him to hit harder ground balls. I'm pretty sure I've seen a hit probability chart for GBs (but I can't find it), where HP is not a monotonically increasing function of EV.
The story isn't as simple as: Player X has poor results, but Player X has a relatively high average EV Therefore, Player X has just been a victim of bad luck and will see better results going forward
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 20, 2017 11:57:10 GMT -5
Honestly don't even know what you're arguing, don't know who is trying to make the case that Hanley or Jackie are the best hitters, and if someone is not having good results on hard hit balls I'll take my chances on that improving. pbs.twimg.com/media/DAID-EpWAAE_mM5.jpg
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 20, 2017 13:47:52 GMT -5
I have been watching JBJ pretty carefully and noticed that after he hit that mammoth homerun in baltimore he became pull happy with every pitch until they sat him down for a bit. Now he is taking the outside pitch to the opposite field and that is where he shpould live. He has the power to take it out in all fields, but he gets in to the pull habit too easily from circumstances of his hitting stance. In his slump his head was turning toward the right side and with an outside pitch he would roll it over or strikeout. He has to keep his head still and stop trying to yank the pitch. His biggest problem is that he falls out of this approach too easily. I would like to also pointout that as silly as it seems, he was much more effective hitting in the 9 hole. why move him up when he has success there. You tell me.
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Post by m1keyboots on May 20, 2017 14:08:38 GMT -5
He's hitting the ball hard, and as usual playing incredible defense at a premium position.
Not everyone can be Mike Trout, and compared to the underpaid Trout, JBJ is getting paid peanuts.
Jackie has barely played 200 innings, and has 7 runs saved defensively, and after hitting a couple out and having some good at bats against the Cards I'd say he's just getting his feet back under him after looking like he'd lost the season rounding first.
It's like people want a silver slugger at every position. Should we next get rid of Bogaerts because he's only hitting 330 with doubles and triples?
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 20, 2017 14:59:41 GMT -5
He's hitting the ball hard, and as usual playing incredible defense at a premium position. Not everyone can be Mike Trout, and compared to the underpaid Trout, JBJ is getting paid peanuts. Jackie has barely played 200 innings, and has 7 runs saved defensively, and after hitting a couple out and having some good at bats against the Cards I'd say he's just getting his feet back under him after looking like he'd lost the season rounding first. It's like people want a silver slugger at every position. Should we next get rid of Bogaerts because he's only hitting 330 with doubles and triples? He is in a good position now in his hitting mechanics. the problem is that if he hits a very long pull homerun he can fall back into the all pull mode too easily. I wouldn't say all his defense is incredible . His fielding is very good, but his throws into the infield have been suspect for some time now. He has been yanking a lot of throws up to the 1st base side instead of direct to home plate.
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Post by m1keyboots on May 20, 2017 17:36:23 GMT -5
He's hitting the ball hard, and as usual playing incredible defense at a premium position. Not everyone can be Mike Trout, and compared to the underpaid Trout, JBJ is getting paid peanuts. Jackie has barely played 200 innings, and has 7 runs saved defensively, and after hitting a couple out and having some good at bats against the Cards I'd say he's just getting his feet back under him after looking like he'd lost the season rounding first. It's like people want a silver slugger at every position. Should we next get rid of Bogaerts because he's only hitting 330 with doubles and triples? He is in a good position now in his hitting mechanics. the problem is that if he hits a very long pull homerun he can fall back into the all pull mode too easily. I wouldn't say all his defense is incredible . His fielding is very good, but his throws into the infield have been suspect for some time now. He has been yanking a lot of throws up to the 1st base side instead of direct to home plate. We can agree to disagree on the defense I suppose. As far as the best I'd say Kiermaier, Inciarte, and Pillar ( although all three have shown some regression/mistakes early) I'd still say JBJ is top 5 defensively in the league. His arm has looked suspect at times, although the arm strength looks good. We can agree to agree on the pull-happiness he experiences if he really turns on one, and he seems to be at his best going opposite field and letting the bombs come off poopy pitches.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2017 12:36:58 GMT -5
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Post by thursty on May 25, 2017 13:27:05 GMT -5
As far as his defense, his ballhawking +/- is top 10 in 2017. Buxton and Herrera are the top 2 and it's not close. Inciarte is 3rd (no "regression" at all), Kiermaier 4th. Pillar has been the most disappointing - just a bit above average (which is actually poor for a CF)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 25, 2017 13:35:53 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 25, 2017 16:21:59 GMT -5
As far as his defense, his ballhawking +/- is top 10 in 2017. Buxton and Herrera are the top 2 and it's not close. Inciarte is 3rd (no "regression" at all), Kiermaier 4th. Pillar has been the most disappointing - just a bit above average (which is actually poor for a CF) Defensive stats do not stabilize for about 2 years and JBJ had a knee injury. I know you like to look for the downside of absolutely everything, but you're really reaching here.
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Post by splendidsplinter on May 25, 2017 16:37:54 GMT -5
JBJ is a career .234 hitter with great defense. It is what it is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 25, 2017 16:44:02 GMT -5
JBJ is a career .234 hitter with great defense. It is what it is. That's such a misleading stat without context. It takes into account them rushing him to majors before he was ready and mishandling him for like two years of up and down from majors to minors. Like when he was just heating up and they called up Betts and sent him down when he was just putting things together. The last two years are a much better sample of Bradley's true skills with the bat.
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