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How long should the Red Sox wait on JBJ? (This Year)
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Aug 10, 2017 22:59:19 GMT -5
It's Steve Selsky time!!!!! Free Steve Selsky!! Free Steve Selsky!!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2017 6:28:01 GMT -5
Overall, Jackie's WAR is 10.0 over the last 3 seasons, which means that overall he is helping the team. I do not think the Red Sox should weaken their young core by trading any of Bradley, Betts, Benintendi, Devers, Bogaerts, E-Rod, Hembree, Scott, Martin, Maddox, Workman, or Vazquez.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 11, 2017 7:01:39 GMT -5
Overall, Jackie's WAR is 10.0 over the last 3 seasons, which means that overall he is helping the team. I do not think the Red Sox should weaken their young core by trading any of Bradley, Betts, Benintendi, Devers, Bogaerts, E-Rod, Hembree, Scott, Martin, Maddox, Workman, or Vazquez. Yes they have a young core. But, I would not include Hembree, Scott, Martin, and Maddox as part of that core. I can see Bradley and XB traded for prospects before they hit free agency. 2 to 4 years out the sox will hit a salary crunch. JBJ and XB are represented by Boris, probably making them hard to sign. Not saying I want to get rid of anyone, just saying Dave will have to make salary decisions and /or making cuts. The cuts would be trades and not letting any one just walk. Pedro and umass have brought it up several times about the impacts of the numbers of players coming up for new BIG contracts in the2-4 year range. Dave will have some very hard choices to make. Betts, Sale, and Kimbrel. Who stays and who goes will bring some VERY interesting conversations.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 11, 2017 8:51:07 GMT -5
It's Steve Selsky time!!!!! Free Steve Selsky!! Free Steve Selsky!! In a John Farrell lineup, Selsky would even play CF. You wouldn't even need to switch Mookie or Benintendi. It's perfect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 11, 2017 17:56:22 GMT -5
JBJ has been the 9th best CFer in MLB this year.
As others have suggested, it's kind of impossible to devise a series of personnel moves that would improve the team while removing Bradley, that couldn't be bettered by a series of moves that would include keeping him.
We're set everywhere next year except at 1B (and LHR, but you're not trading JBJ to fill that hole).
You can't downgrade CF and more than offset that by trading JBJ for a 1B, because you're not getting Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, or Cody Bellinger for JBJ, Swihart, and any set of prospects anyone here would be happy to give up. And the next best option at 1B may well be Eric Hosmer, a very good FA who has a ridiculous Fenway swing and has been consistently great with men on and in high leverage throughout his career.
So, can you get one of the 8 better guys in a trade based on JBJ and Swihart (even if Swihart goes to a 3rd club that needs a catcher)?
Mike Trout? No. Aaron Hicks? Not sure if he's for real, and, no, the Yankees won't trade him to Boston if they think he is. George Springer? No. Kevin Kiermaier? Also within the division (and it's a bad idea to trade for pure defense). Lorenzo Cain? Doubtful. Leury Garcia? If he's for real, the ChiSox will build around him. Jarrod Dyson, Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock? Now you're into territory where the edge on JBJ is small enough that a trade is never going to happen except as a mutual change of scenery.
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Post by jimoh on Aug 11, 2017 20:46:58 GMT -5
Seems like it's his turn to get two days off, no? Holt or Young in LF?
It's amazing that, as Eric has said, "JBJ has been the 9th best CFer in MLB this year" after this rough month.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 11, 2017 21:54:00 GMT -5
JBJ has obviously been in an offensive slide but still is at .256. He is more offensively impactful than Bogaerts and Vasquez and, on a comparative scale, better defensively IMO.
Someone must know what accounts for the hot/cold streaks (timing off?, big swing? trying to pull the ball?, pulling off the ball?) but he is due for a hot one. We haven't had this potentially impactful CFder in some time. Plus he is fun to watch.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 18, 2018 18:06:00 GMT -5
A close friend had a conversation yesterday with a former great Red Sox pitcher. The pitcher said he had recently talked with JBJ telling him to stop trying to pull everything, that he was not a home run hitter, that he was a #9 hitter for a reason. He told him his job was to get on base, encouraged him hit to left and to bunt frequently with likely 50% success given the defense.
But based on current performance, he said he would pitch him outside to get him to rollover into the shift or get 2 strikes and then bust him inside...not a threat.
Asked how this was received, he concluded that "junior" was stubborn.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2018 18:20:27 GMT -5
I would acquire an outfielder at the deadline, move JBJ to the bench for the year, and see if he comes back swinging next year. If a few months into next year he is still struggling, then I'm ready to cut him.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jun 18, 2018 18:53:22 GMT -5
Bradley was a great young talent... then cooled off... then caught fire (batting)... now has cooled off. His defense has remained. Maybe others with more insight can explain, but what isn't Bradley doing that he DID do in the past to hit successfully? And if it's a case of pitchers figuring him out, why hasn't he (or his coaches) learned to adapt to how pitchers are throwing to him? I'd have to think it's an ongoing process for any hitter... to adjust to what the league perceives/exploits as your weakness.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 18, 2018 20:44:49 GMT -5
I'm at the point that I think his hit tool is lacking and will never really improve, especially if he's as stubborn as has been mentioned, and thanks for the anecdote sarasoxer - very interesting.
Unfortunately he's at the point where you debate if his spectacular defense makes up for his awful offense. I've been leaning that this doesn't.
I don't have a ton of faith that he's going to get back to that .250/.325/0.400 area I wish he would be at.
I think he'll be offered around in December, but I don't think the Sox would get much for him.
I don't like Benintendi in CF as much and it's tough to move the best defensive RF in the game although I do believe Betts could thrive in CF, but I also believe the wear and tear from being CF might hamper his offensive game a bit as far as staying healthy.
I do believe the Sox will be in the market for a CF sooner or later, a guy who won't be the defender JBJ is but would be a better hitter.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 18, 2018 20:46:19 GMT -5
I would acquire an outfielder at the deadline, move JBJ to the bench for the year, and see if he comes back swinging next year. If a few months into next year he is still struggling, then I'm ready to cut him. Despite how I feel about his bat, cutting JBJ if he's on your roster makes no sense. He's the perfect guy to come in off the bench and make your late inning outfield defense spectacular. Trading him if you upgrade is one thing, but cutting him for nothing makes no sense.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2018 6:28:22 GMT -5
I would acquire an outfielder at the deadline, move JBJ to the bench for the year, and see if he comes back swinging next year. If a few months into next year he is still struggling, then I'm ready to cut him. Despite how I feel about his bat, cutting JBJ if he's on your roster makes no sense. He's the perfect guy to come in off the bench and make your late inning outfield defense spectacular. Trading him if you upgrade is one thing, but cutting him for nothing makes no sense. I agree. I meant trade. And I wouldn't do it for some time yet.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2018 7:50:10 GMT -5
I'm at the point that I think his hit tool is lacking and will never really improve, especially if he's as stubborn as has been mentioned, and thanks for the anecdote sarasoxer - very interesting. Unfortunately he's at the point where you debate if his spectacular defense makes up for his awful offense. I've been leaning that this doesn't. I don't have a ton of faith that he's going to get back to that .250/.325/0.400 area I wish he would be at.I think he'll be offered around in December, but I don't think the Sox would get much for him. I don't like Benintendi in CF as much and it's tough to move the best defensive RF in the game although I do believe Betts could thrive in CF, but I also believe the wear and tear from being CF might hamper his offensive game a bit as far as staying healthy. I do believe the Sox will be in the market for a CF sooner or later, a guy who won't be the defender JBJ is but would be a better hitter. According to Statcast data, that's about where he should be at. .242 BA .418 SLG baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=BOS&min=50It's really easy to pile on a guy with a .241 BABIP. And yeah, some of that is hitting into the shift, but we've all seen him hitting line drives right at people over and over again in the last month.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 19, 2018 8:20:21 GMT -5
The thing with JBJ is he could OPS 1.2 for the next month and I wouldn't be at all surprised... not many players get hotter or colder (in my observation... could prove otherwise). He's the opposite Pedroia (I think after those first few rough months he was .280-.320 pretty much every month for two years).
I like the lineup enough now to give JBJ a chance, partly because I cant stand the thought of checking box scores every day and thinking we were missing out (even though the regression would be coming).
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 8:36:50 GMT -5
I'm at the point that I think his hit tool is lacking and will never really improve, especially if he's as stubborn as has been mentioned, and thanks for the anecdote sarasoxer - very interesting. Unfortunately he's at the point where you debate if his spectacular defense makes up for his awful offense. I've been leaning that this doesn't. I don't have a ton of faith that he's going to get back to that .250/.325/0.400 area I wish he would be at.I think he'll be offered around in December, but I don't think the Sox would get much for him. I don't like Benintendi in CF as much and it's tough to move the best defensive RF in the game although I do believe Betts could thrive in CF, but I also believe the wear and tear from being CF might hamper his offensive game a bit as far as staying healthy. I do believe the Sox will be in the market for a CF sooner or later, a guy who won't be the defender JBJ is but would be a better hitter. According to Statcast data, that's about where he should be at. .242 BA .418 SLG baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=BOS&min=50It's really easy to pile on a guy with a .241 BABIP. And yeah, some of that is hitting into the shift, but we've all seen him hitting line drives right at people over and over again in the last month. If you want to chalk up JBJ's mediocre to bad hitting over a very long period of time to bad luck, have at it. I think his hit tool is lacking and it's pretty much the same thing with him over and over again. The man doesn't consistently hit. The guy has 1 great to overwhelming month a season and you spend the other five wishing he'd contribute anything offensively. Jim, I get that you think we're seeing a new (or maybe 2016 version) of JBJ now that his timing is better and he's just now hitting into buzzard luck. I'm telling you even if he goes out on his hot stretch for a month, they'll adjust to him and we'll be right back where we started - with him not hitting again. I thought we saw something new about him after that scorching hot month in 2016 as he even got his BA up to .340. I knew he would cool off somewhat, but I didn't think his average would decline all the way down to .267. It was more of the same last season. Batting average by itself doesn't mean a ton, but it tells me that his hit tool isn't consistently good enough to sustain even his hot streaks and I don't think that's really going to change drastically over the next couple of seasons. I think when this season is all said and done JBJ will be hitting around .215 - .230 with an OPS in the mid .600s, and I don't think it will be drastically different next season or the one after that. He'll have stretches where it looks like he has figured it out accompanied by slumps that take forever to get out of. This upcoming offseason I would take a look at AJ Pollack, who's from Hebron, CT (about 20 minutes away from me) as a free agent for CF and trade JBJ and hope Pollack can be a stop gap CF until the Sox finally develop one. I'd be fine with the Sox moving on from JBJ. I hope he proves me wrong as that would benefit the Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2018 8:54:36 GMT -5
If you want to chalk up JBJ's mediocre to bad hitting over a very long period of time to bad luck, have at it. I think his hit tool is lacking and it's pretty much the same thing with him over and over again. The man doesn't consistently hit. The guy has 1 great to overwhelming month a season and you spend the other five wishing he'd contribute anything offensively. This upcoming offseason I would take a look at AJ Pollack, who's from Hebron, CT (about 20 minutes away from me) as a free agent for CF and trade JBJ and hope Pollack can be a stop gap CF until the Sox finally develop one. I'd be fine with the Sox moving on from JBJ. I hope he proves me wrong as that would benefit the Sox. I'm pointing out what his batting average and slugging percentage should be based on how hard he hits the ball. He should be over a .700 OPS based on how he has hit the ball this year, which isn't as good as he has hit the ball in the past.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 8:58:28 GMT -5
If you want to chalk up JBJ's mediocre to bad hitting over a very long period of time to bad luck, have at it. I think his hit tool is lacking and it's pretty much the same thing with him over and over again. The man doesn't consistently hit. The guy has 1 great to overwhelming month a season and you spend the other five wishing he'd contribute anything offensively. This upcoming offseason I would take a look at AJ Pollack, who's from Hebron, CT (about 20 minutes away from me) as a free agent for CF and trade JBJ and hope Pollack can be a stop gap CF until the Sox finally develop one. I'd be fine with the Sox moving on from JBJ. I hope he proves me wrong as that would benefit the Sox. I'm pointing out what his batting average and slugging percentage should be based on how hard he hits the ball. He should be over a .700 OPS based on how he has hit the ball this year, which isn't as good as he has hit the ball in the past. And in which direction do you see it going over the next 2.5 seasons?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2018 9:04:36 GMT -5
I'm pointing out what his batting average and slugging percentage should be based on how hard he hits the ball. He should be over a .700 OPS based on how he has hit the ball this year, which isn't as good as he has hit the ball in the past. And in which direction do you see it going over the next 2.5 seasons? Probably .700 - .850 OPS. He's still above replacement level even with the terrible results he has had. If he got expected results, he'd be a 3+ win player easily.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2018 9:10:32 GMT -5
2018-06-17 102.6 403 2018-06-17 84.8 290 2018-06-17 97.1 145 2018-06-16 95.2 340 2018-06-15 101.5 81 2018-06-15 107.0 362 2018-06-15 79.6 148 2018-06-14 104.4 19 2018-06-14 101.1 162 2018-06-14 97.0 269 2018-06-13 105.2 341 2018-06-13 102.2 143 2018-06-13 85.1 103 2018-06-12 100.3 17 2018-06-12 108.7 282 2018-06-12 103.1 6 2018-06-12 90.3 304 2018-06-11 91.4 13 2018-06-11 91.9 278 2018-06-11 102.2 10 2018-06-11 99.9 379 2018-06-10 51.0 3 2018-06-10 98.4 332 2018-06-10 104.6 27 2018-06-09 105.7 414 2018-06-06 82.9 2018-06-06 97.3 342 2018-06-05 95.8 157 2018-06-05 103.8 21 2018-06-03 79.9 288 2018-06-02 106.8 327 2018-06-02 84.2 5 2018-06-02 72.5 217 2018-06-01 105.9 87 2018-06-01 106.2 274
JBJ's exit velocities for this month. It doesn't look like a guy who is struggling to hit at all. In 35 events, the average velocity is 95.6. His BABIP for June is .152.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 9:35:11 GMT -5
2018-06-17 102.6 403 2018-06-17 84.8 290 2018-06-17 97.1 145 2018-06-16 95.2 340 2018-06-15 101.5 81 2018-06-15 107.0 362 2018-06-15 79.6 148 2018-06-14 104.4 19 2018-06-14 101.1 162 2018-06-14 97.0 269 2018-06-13 105.2 341 2018-06-13 102.2 143 2018-06-13 85.1 103 2018-06-12 100.3 17 2018-06-12 108.7 282 2018-06-12 103.1 6 2018-06-12 90.3 304 2018-06-11 91.4 13 2018-06-11 91.9 278 2018-06-11 102.2 10 2018-06-11 99.9 379 2018-06-10 51.0 3 2018-06-10 98.4 332 2018-06-10 104.6 27 2018-06-09 105.7 414 2018-06-06 82.9 2018-06-06 97.3 342 2018-06-05 95.8 157 2018-06-05 103.8 21 2018-06-03 79.9 288 2018-06-02 106.8 327 2018-06-02 84.2 5 2018-06-02 72.5 217 2018-06-01 105.9 87 2018-06-01 106.2 274 JBJ's exit velocities for this month. It doesn't look like a guy who is struggling to hit at all. In 35 events, the average velocity is 95.6. His BABIP for June is .152. While encouraging it's too small a sample size for me to buy in that he's going to be stinging the ball forward over the long-term from this point on as the law of averages catch up to him. I mean, what were his exit velocities in June of 2016 when he was murdering the ball? I'm sure it was through the roof. Then what happened? Was he able to maintain or did his BA decline by a large amount purely by luck? The point is that it comes and goes with him. You see a guy with a .700 - .850 OPS. I see a guy who can OPS .850 for a month or so, but will wind up at .650 - .700. If they can upgrade in the not-so-distant future and get equal value from him in a trade before you risk if his hit tool goes altogether, I think you have to consider it. There's no way I'd want to re-sign him beyond 2020.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2018 11:03:54 GMT -5
JBJ's wOBA by season, 2015-2018:
.355 .354 .313 .263
JBJ's BABIP by season, 2015-2018:
.310 .312 .294 .241
Statistically, it sure looks like the BABIP is a whole lot of what's going on. And anecdotally, from watching the games... it sure looks like the BABIP is a whole lot of what's going on.
It's an open question to me whether a normalization and general return to form means he gets back to the .313 range or the .355 range. But even at .313 he was a 2+ WAR player.
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Post by coachmac on Jun 19, 2018 11:45:56 GMT -5
JimEd you are a lot more into the statistics than I am. It seems a lot of the hard-hit balls by jbj are pullside ground balls into extreme shifts. If that's accurate wouldn't you expect his BABIP to be negatively impacted? This isnt meant as argumentative but truly asking for analysis input.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 12:45:35 GMT -5
JimEd you are a lot more into the statistics than I am. It seems a lot of the hard-hit balls by jbj are pullside ground balls into extreme shifts. If that's accurate wouldn't you expect his BABIP to be negatively impacted? This isnt meant as argumentative but truly asking for analysis input. In a way, the question you ask is kind of central to the state of the game. Rob Manfred talked about changes to what defenses can do to shift. With the technology explosion, teams pretty much know where to defend hitters. So JBJ is like a lot of hitters who face heavy shifting. They can either go against the shift and hit the other way or they can try to do what Ted Williams did which is to say, "Screw the shift, I'm going OVER it!" If you never strike out like Ted Williams and you have his discipline and hit tool, then no problem. Ted probably could have hit to the left side but he was too stubborn and he felt he could really beat it, which he did. But in today's game, striking out is no longer an embarrassing thing like it used to be, so players without Ted Williams' hit tool, having trouble beating the shift by going the other way, are trying to go over it. So you get more of the Three True Outcomes game, which leads to more inaction, and more bored fans - at least according to MLB. Bringing in back to JBJ, I think he's trying to do what a lot of others are trying to do which is to say screw the batting average, I'll go over the shift, but he doesn't have that kind of consistent power and his hit tool isn't that great to begin with, so like a lot of others slapping the ball the other way is something he'd struggle with, so he's trying to pull the ball over those shifts. I don't think he's going through things that a lot of other hitters aren't experiencing now with the changes in the game.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2018 12:52:02 GMT -5
JimEd you are a lot more into the statistics than I am. It seems a lot of the hard-hit balls by jbj are pullside ground balls into extreme shifts. If that's accurate wouldn't you expect his BABIP to be negatively impacted? This isnt meant as argumentative but truly asking for analysis input. That's true and why I said that the shift is some of it. But the 2nd # in that list is the distance it was hit. Anything over about 100 feet is a line drive or a fly ball. There are still a lot of hard luck outs.
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