SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
How long should the Red Sox wait on JBJ? (This Year)
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2018 15:32:30 GMT -5
No one is saying that his strike outs are bad luck. C'mon. What everyone is saying is that when he hits 108 mph line drives, he should get more hits and more extra base hits than he has gotten. Surely that is a reasonable statement. His mechanics and approach has nothing to do with whether a 108 mph line drive becomes a hit or not. He already more than did his job and did it well when he hits the ball like that. That is also what his xwOBA is saying. The only problem I have with what you're saying is that you make it seem like its all bad luck. The shift data and looking at Bradley spray chart show you it isn't just bad luck. You can hit lasers all the time, but if you keep hitting them to the same spot everytime you can't expect to get hits. There is a reason his shift numbers keep rising. He has a massive amount of batted balls in one area. You'd have to be stupid not to play the shift on him. That's where xwOBA has it faults. Bradley doesn't act like a normal or regular hitter, so untill he figures the shifts out this isn't just bad luck. It looks like an equal mix of bad luck and that he's highly predictable. I've admitted that shifting is definitely the cause of some of the discrepancy, but not nearly all of it.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2018 15:51:45 GMT -5
I'll acknowledge that I know nothing about astronomy if you acknowledge that the sun doesn't have much to do with how the earth moves.
As a critic of those who just use exit velocity without context, OF COURSE exit velocity has much to do with how good a hitter someone is. Like, someone who hits the ball 110 miles an hour consistent is a better hitter than one who hits it 80. Being a good hitter isn't just the percentage of time you make contact, which is what you seem to think since you keep circling the conversation back to strikeout rates (which this isn't about). Being a good hitter is also barrelling the balls that you do hit. Hitting the ball 20 miles an hour harder makes it more likely to be a hit. That has nothing to do with a totally different event when the batter swung and missed.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2018 15:58:02 GMT -5
Yeah, those are definitely issues, but they look like bigger issues than they are because when he is hitting the ball hard, he's not getting nearly enough hits. No one would be complaining about him at all if his wOBA was .100 points higher than his xwOBA. They'd be calling him an All-Star, and that's just as wrong as underrating him because of bad results. jmei called me out, rightfully so, for not taking all the advanced metrics into account. However, you're only quoting EV so I've got to point this out. Top ten AV EV according to Statcast: 1. Joey Gallow - terrible hit tool 2. Aaron Judge - averageish hit tool 3. Nelson Cruz - averageish hit tool 4. Miguel Cabrera - generational talent 5. Mark Trumbo - below average hit tool 6. Matt Olson - young, unfair to judge but has a bad batting average 7. Ryan Zimmerman - career above average hit tool, might not be there anymore 8. Jose Bautista - very bad hit tool the last few years Ok, top 8. I got bored. And I'm not a scout so take my assessments with a grain of salt. Point is hitting a baseball hard is a decent way to guess if a guy is going to be a good hitter (really hope it works for our draft class) but is not a guarantee over time. Also, look at the profile of these guys. They're 6'4" power hitters. They can make up for some swing and miss because they can hit a ball 120 mph hour to the opposite field. They're also mostly right handed and not subject to shifts to the degree that JBJ is. 108 mph exit velocity sounds impressive, but if you hit into the shift the majority of the time (as someone pointed out JBJ is prone to do) then it's for nothing and a line out is the expected outcome. JBJ could hit a ball 55 mph to the left side of the field and have a .485 BABIP and it would be sustainable until they stop shifting on him. I'm exaggerating, but you get my point. If you take into account his high strikeout rate, bad contact numbers, and the fact that he plays into the defense's strategy when he does put a decent ball in play I'm not sure how you expect the guy to do much. It looks to me like you're equivocating here. The question is whether high exit velocities correlate with being a good hitter, but now you're talking about "hit tool." Like, Aaron Judge may have an average hit tool, but he's a danged good hitter, and I'd wager that the exit velocities on the balls he hits has a lot to do with it. Even Joey Gallo, who strikes out 97% of the time and has a worse batting average than Bradley, is able to pull a not-awful 93 wRC+ - thanks in large part, I'd say, to his ability to get high exit velocities. Frankly, your list of the top 8 EV guys looks pretty impressive overall. Anyway, it seems to me you're proving too much. Like, it follows from your argument here that Bradley can't be good even if he's hitting screaming liners all the time, cuz he'll just hit them into the shift for outs. But that's obviously not the case, because he goes on those hot streaks (as he's done recently). The issue, like I've said, is what causes him to go into those funks where he's not hitting screaming line drives.
|
|
|
Post by ajs1994 on Jun 29, 2018 15:59:07 GMT -5
Pasting the link below of the explanation of xWOBA in case that might be helpful. I don’t understand the conflation of it with the exit velo leaderboard, because xWOBA takes into account BB’s, strikeouts, etc and supplements that with the batted ball data. There are 2 obvious variables that xWOBA is missing that could lead to discrepancies, shifting and the batter’s speed. So if you look at 2017, the top 10 in qualifying batters with biggest difference between wOBA and xWOBA are guys like Miguel Cabrera, Mitch Moreland with a foot injury, Victor Martinez, Albert Pujols, Kendrys Morales. As for JBJ, the difference is likely the shifting and bad luck. My personal belief is that he’s probably a 95 wrc+ true talent hitter, which with his defense still makes him an asset. m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jun 29, 2018 16:07:05 GMT -5
Nobody is saying that the last 162 games didn't happen. People are saying "look, people play above or below their true level of skill, even for 162 games. Here's the evidence that they do, and here's the evidence that Bradley falls into that category." You disagree, which is fine, but "exit velocity doesn't have much to do with how good a hitter someone is" is simply a factually incorrect statement. It's not the only factor, because there is no one only factor. But if exit velocity weren't important then Aaron Judge wouldn't be a good baseball player, because his contact rates are garbage.
|
|
|
Post by a2sox on Jun 29, 2018 18:21:05 GMT -5
This reveals my lack of advanced statistical knowledge, but is there an xwOBA for pitchers?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 30, 2018 21:36:39 GMT -5
Except you’re equating AVG EV with xwOBA, and those are two fantastically different things. AVG EV probably tells you more about how big and strong a guy is than anything else. That’s like looking at hits a player has in a season and trying to decide if he’s a good player. You’re missing so much other context: XB, BB, total AB/PA...*defense*...that are required to make a judgement. That’s the point of xwOBA: it’s looking at how hard a ball was his, at what angle, and assigning a value, then summing up all of a player’s events. It includes non-batted ball events like BB and K. Just focusing on EV is silly. As Jimed noted, strikeouts alone make a huge difference. Take strikeouts out for all hitters, see what their stats look like, and I bet that correlates a lot better with EV. All proper statistical analysis requires context. You're right, I'm picking on one aspect of xwOBA and probably missing a lot in the process. I picked on EV specifically because 1 or 2 people had mentioned it and I could do a quick eye test. However, in general when you deal with predictive analytics you refine your results by comparing predictions to actual outcomes. In JBJ's case there seems to be a poor correlation over the last calendar year of baseball whether you're talking EV or xwOBA. A full season of baseball may not be enough to normalize data, but you've got to give me some leeway to connect a few dots at this point. I'll admit that I haven't looked extensively into xwOBA because I honestly don't care about the mechanics of how it works, but the outcome it produces for JBJ doesn't line up with almost all of JBJ's other stats and doesn't line up with what happens on the field. Maybe he's a little unlucky, but two weeks ago he missed about half a dozen batting practice fastballs in one game. That's not luck. That's poor mechanics, probably some mental stuff, and maybe a dash of diminishing skills. And I'm not just picking on one game. And we're talking about a guy who has a history of poor offensive stretches. Nobody's debating that. Maybe I'm wrong. Hopefully I am and you're all throwing this back at me in August. But for a player who in the past has needed a ridiculous hot streak to keep his stat line for the year, I think we need to be a little more open to the idea that the hot steak isn't coming this time around. Well, his BABIP this year is about 40 points below his career average, suggesting a lot of bad luck. But yeah, his IsoP is way down too, which suggests that he’s not hitting with the authority he has previously. One thing that contributes to the low IsoP is a due-for-regression HR/FB rate of 10%, particularly given that he’s had reasonably good EV. He’s historically been around league average (16-17% I think). And his batted ball profile shows essentially no change, so it’s not like he’s hitting more IFFB or grounders to explain the bad BABIP luck. His barrel rate is a little low, but his LD rate is fine at 20%. I’m sure shifts and his pull rate is part of it. But everything really does point to mostly just rotten luck. My guess is that if he doesn’t get in his own head too much and start over-tinkering with his swing, he’ll end the season around what he did last year. His defense means that’s still a valuable player, but he may never again be the guy he was in 2016.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Mar 3, 2019 15:30:46 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 3, 2019 16:11:40 GMT -5
Cannot be more excited about JBJ this season. That swing looks absolutely beautiful now.
I have to imagine that everyone who reads that article would be just as excited. He has worked his butt off.
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on Mar 3, 2019 17:57:23 GMT -5
Look at how dominant Jackie was in his 2018 rankings of several important categories (by all rights this should have led to much better production with some better luck); I think Jackie has a good chance to rake this year as he continues to hone his swing and has an idea what he wants to do now.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 3, 2019 22:17:18 GMT -5
Look at how dominant Jackie was in his 2018 rankings of several important categories (by all rights this should have led to much better production with some better luck); I think Jackie has a good chance to rake this year as he continues to hone his swing and has an idea what he wants to do now. Lol, I posted the link to that page in the ST thread, talking about his offseason swing work. It’s really impressive, right?! 18th in MLB in avgEV. It’s just his avgLA stinks (12% last year, a little better than previously, but def influenced by way too many hard grounders, which are almost automatic outs). He’s on the cusp of a production leap if he bought into Wallenbrock’s instruction during the offseason. Sox should make Ted Williams/John Underwood’s “The Science of Hitting” requires reading on joining the organization.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 4, 2019 12:30:55 GMT -5
As much as I love JBJ and hope for his continued, if not everlasting, success in a Sox uniform, (look at my icon), my gut and recent statistical analysis on age curves point to the Sox either riding him out to the end of his current deal, possibly making a QO then letting him go, or trading him before his final year. The only way this doesn’t happen is if he takes, say, a two year extension on a discount, which I can’t see happening unless he really, really wants that. Also, he’s a Boras client.
I do hope I’m wrong
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 4, 2019 13:26:43 GMT -5
As much as I love JBJ and hope for his continued, if not everlasting, success in a Sox uniform, (look at my icon), my gut and recent statistical analysis on age curves point to the Sox either riding him out to the end of his current deal, possibly making a QO then letting him go, or trading him before his final year. The only way this doesn’t happen is if he takes, say, a two year extension on a discount, which I can’t see happening unless he really, really wants that. Also, he’s a Boras client. I do hope I’m wrong I think he's the perfect guy to extend to get a discount before he puts it all together like I know he is. 5 win floor this year and his bat can carry the glove for his contract extension!
|
|
badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 408
|
Post by badfishnbc on Mar 4, 2019 13:35:50 GMT -5
I think he's the perfect guy to extend to get a discount before he puts it all together like I know he is. When was the last time a Boras client took the extension, especially one who is increasingly showing growth in the advanced metrics that make for a large, compelling free-agency book? I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze, especially if Boras sets his asking price at $20-25 million annually.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 4, 2019 13:41:10 GMT -5
I think he's the perfect guy to extend to get a discount before he puts it all together like I know he is. When was the last time a Boras client took the extension, especially one who is increasingly showing growth in the advanced metrics that make for a large, compelling free-agency book? I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze, especially if Boras sets his asking price at $20-25 million annually. Whoever comes to the Red Sox first willing to sign an extension should get it. I was just joking around with my comment. Varitek signed an extension without a care for the market and he was with Boras. So it can happen.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Mar 4, 2019 13:49:34 GMT -5
I think he's the perfect guy to extend to get a discount before he puts it all together like I know he is. When was the last time a Boras client took the extension, especially one who is increasingly showing growth in the advanced metrics that make for a large, compelling free-agency book? I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze, especially if Boras sets his asking price at $20-25 million annually. I really don’t think even Boras would ask for that much for JBJ. Unless he breaks out this year and hits 30 homers. Which may happen.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 4, 2019 15:17:20 GMT -5
That is just a terrific article. Must-read material if you’re aSox fan, and want a peek at the revolutionary change in organizational hitting philosophy.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 4, 2019 15:19:56 GMT -5
When was the last time a Boras client took the extension, especially one who is increasingly showing growth in the advanced metrics that make for a large, compelling free-agency book? I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze, especially if Boras sets his asking price at $20-25 million annually. Whoever comes to the Red Sox first willing to sign an extension should get it. I was just joking around with my comment. Varitek signed an extension without a care for the market and he was with Boras. So it can happen. Strasburg’s huge deal was almost definitely below what he’d have gotten as a FA, too. In the end, it’s up to the player and their desires.
|
|
|
Post by sparkygian on Mar 5, 2019 18:49:21 GMT -5
JBJ's one of the most controversial players on the team, it seems. So many rooting for his exit, and about the same voting for waiting longer on him to develop into a consistent, at least average hitter, with potential for much more (anybody who can hit three homers and two doubles in a game, and go on incredible hot streaks when he's on). Is the consensus opinion for the non-believers that the Sox can slide Benintendi into center field, to take the place of JBJ, and then have someone like Chavis play left-field? Right now there doesn't seem to me to be anyone available to fill the right-fielder's role if Betts took over CF. On the surface that seems to make sense, financially, and also opening up a position for maybe Chavis or Swihart to fill. Would Swihart even be a candidate for LF though? There would probably be a drop-off in overall outfield defense if JBJ was let go if Sox decide to play someone in the organization to fill whatever opening would result from letting JBJ go, since there doesn't seem to be anyone in the organization who is a natural outfielder, with good defensive attributes. I suppose JDM could spend a lot more time in the outfield, which would seem to make sense, as his defensive inadequacies would probably be offset by his offensive output.
To me it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to trade for a JBJ replacement, or sign a free agent.
Personally, I am hoping JBJ has a great all-around 2019, and is then willing to re-sign with Sox for a hometown discount, considering his erratic seasonal, hitting stats.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 3:05:59 GMT -5
JBJ's one of the most controversial players on the team, it seems. So many rooting for his exit, and about the same voting for waiting longer on him to develop into a consistent, at least average hitter, with potential for much more (anybody who can hit three homers and two doubles in a game, and go on incredible hot streaks when he's on). Is the consensus opinion for the non-believers that the Sox can slide Benintendi into center field, to take the place of JBJ, and then have someone like Chavis play left-field? Right now there doesn't seem to me to be anyone available to fill the right-fielder's role if Betts took over CF. On the surface that seems to make sense, financially, and also opening up a position for maybe Chavis or Swihart to fill. Would Swihart even be a candidate for LF though? There would probably be a drop-off in overall outfield defense if JBJ was let go if Sox decide to play someone in the organization to fill whatever opening would result from letting JBJ go, since there doesn't seem to be anyone in the organization who is a natural outfielder, with good defensive attributes. I suppose JDM could spend a lot more time in the outfield, which would seem to make sense, as his defensive inadequacies would probably be offset by his offensive output. To me it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to trade for a JBJ replacement, or sign a free agent. Personally, I am hoping JBJ has a great all-around 2019, and is then willing to re-sign with Sox for a hometown discount, considering his erratic seasonal, hitting stats. I’d like to see Chavis get some LF experience; he has solid speed, and a plus arm, so you’d hope he could be an adequate or even good defensive LF with enough reps...the tools are there for it at least. I’m not a big proponent of Benintendi in CF (as you say he doesn’t have the arm for RF; Chavis might but that’s a big RF in Fenway, and especially deep in RCF, with that risky short wall headed towards the pole), but he’s probably adequate there in the absence of a better defensive option. And Mookie would probably be a terrific CF. He’s got plenty of arm, accuracy, good speed, and takes good routes. But I’m also kind of with jimed about making an overture to JBJ about signing an extension. Hicks’s 7/$70 deal is an ideal template for JBJ. Jackie’s got above-avg speed (75th %ile or so in MLB) but he’s not a burner. His CF defense is likely to age well as he depends on outstanding instincts and superb routes with a great first step. He also has a terrific arm, so he could most certainly play an outstanding defensive RF. So even if his speed declines he’s probably still average or better out there no matter where he plays, probably plus. And I really do have confidence in his swing changes. He doesn’t walk like Hicks, and his offensive production hasn’t reached Hicks’s level (nearly 130 wRC+ the last two years), but I think it can and will. I think the swing adjustments he’s made will improve his consistency and create better production from his contact. I honestly believe that he could approach his minor league numbers only with more power. He could very reasonably be a .280/.360/.500 hitter or even better, provided he, say, stops cold streaks after 2-3 weeks, not 5-6. I think the new approach helps him do that. At half a year younger than Hicks, JBJ on say, a 6/$72 deal would be very reasonable and probably a steal. Hell, make it 8/$88 to top Hicks. By the end of that deal he’s hopefully approaching RS-for-life territory, and tbh $10M-12M AAV for even an above-avg 4th OF isn’t really unreasonable (Pearce is getting $6.5M...adjusted for inflation it’ll prob look more like $8M in 8 years). My bet is that Jackie’s closer to a 5-win player this year than a 2. That’s terrific value. And at that level of production, if they DID want to trade him, he would return a TON if he looked like a perennial 4-5 win player with that defense.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 3:16:12 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the better and better Hicks’s signing is for the Sox in JBJ negotiations. I mean, they’re very similar in age, both play CF well, and have similar overall value. Plus, JBJ’s more defensively-minded but doesn’t have the offense of Hicks. Given that clubs more readily pay for offense...well, his market value is right there to see. And Pollock signed for 4/$60M with an option, at 31 but in FA. So 5-7 years, $10-15M AAV is his market right now. Lower end AAV, higher end years might wrap him up, and provide some lux tax breathing room, while keeping him in the Sox uni for life.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Mar 6, 2019 7:35:49 GMT -5
Been a big JBJ supporter from the beginning so this all makes me very happy to read. Can't wait to see the results and how much more dangerous the Sox will be at the plate, expecting both Devers and Benni to improve also. A team OPS of 810+ would be impressive.
Do you guys remember the days when the reports were JBJ wouldn't take coaching on his swing well? Just how valuable has the JD Martinez signing been? That man will deserve the raise he gets when he opts out and the Sox resign him.
Not sure if it has been discussed anywhere but I have been thinking a lot about how the Sox coming salary cap issues and the CBA issues are aligning a little bit. I wish the CBA ended a little sooner so they would align on top of each other but I have to think the next CBA would be a lot friendlier to a higher cap that the Sox need. Could the Sox throw caution to the wind? Blow by the caps and sign more of their core knowing that it would cost a lot short term but relief would be coming with a new CBA? I bring this up here as JBJ is a big part of that and I expect/hope this season will only add to his value.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Mar 6, 2019 9:03:04 GMT -5
Been under a rock for a couple years, but after reading through I've concluded that they didn't dump Bradley for Steve Selsky as was recommended on Page 1? Am I reading correctly? Please advise.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 6, 2019 16:50:52 GMT -5
Steve Selsky? Best damn salesman in the business.
|
|
|
Post by jimmydugan on Mar 6, 2019 21:19:59 GMT -5
Steve Selsky? Best damn salesman in the business. Are you guys talking about Steve Selsky?? I know Steve Selsky!
|
|
|