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How long should the Red Sox wait on JBJ? (This Year)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2018 15:35:37 GMT -5
Unless he can become less streaky it is certainly a problem because he won't swing the bat this way for the rest of the season. A lot of players are streaky, but few have the huge highs and lows Bradley does. Nevermind he's been going in the wrong direction for 3 straight years now. I've been a huge Bradley guy for years and thought overtime he'd become more consistent. He hasn't and I have had enough. For a team that wants to win championships you need players you can count on and you can't count on Bradley's bat. Remember that time the Red Sox won a championship with Mike Napoli? There's a lot of streaky players in baseball and I'm sure you can find a few on every championship team. It's really not that big a deal. Most players are streaky, few reach Bradleys extremes. Take Napoli in 2013, he's nothing like Bradley. Its most likely very close to what the average player does in a given year. Its not two great months and 4 really crappy ones.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2018 15:41:00 GMT -5
It's nice that we can count on JBJ's glove though. For as bad as he's been with the bat, he's still at +0.5 fWAR, which is 1 win better than Nunez. He's 2 years away from a 5+ win season and his BABIP should continue to rise from the .256 it is now. And once again, his expected wOBA is .332 right now according to Statcast data. That's equivalent to about a 110 wRC+. His expected wOBAs in the expected wOBA era: 2015 - .289 2016 - .333 2017 - .320 2018 - .332 Bradley is inconsistent in small samples, but if you zoom out, he's actually quite steady. Not a great player, but a solid one. He's consistent year to year by being highly inconsistent every year month to month. He's usually either red hot or ice cold. He has very little middle ground. If anything those numbers prove his 2016 was more luck than skill. Which is interesting to say the least.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 15:48:53 GMT -5
His expected wOBAs in the expected wOBA era: 2015 - .289 2016 - .333 2017 - .320 2018 - .332 Bradley is inconsistent in small samples, but if you zoom out, he's actually quite steady. Not a great player, but a solid one. He's consistent year to year by being highly inconsistent every year month to month. He's usually either red hot or ice cold. He has very little middle ground. If anything those numbers prove his 2016 was more luck than skill. Which is interesting to say the least. In 2016, he was +.021. (wOBA-xwOBA) In 2018, he is -.057. If anything, these numbers prove that this year is way more bad luck than skill. Almost 3 times worse than his good luck in 2016. I expect his final wOBA this year to be around .310-.320 which should be right around an average MLB hitter and a 2.5 win player, even with below expected results for the season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2018 16:13:59 GMT -5
My point was the second half of 2015 and 2016, the two .830 plus OPS and OPS+ of 119 and 118 seasons are luck based on those stats. Those are basically bars I used to judge him and it seems he just got lucky those years. So my personal bar is way too high.
I don't see how you think his WOBA goes down that much, yet his results improve that much. So your basically betting on him being crazy lucky? He has a long way to go to reach a 2.5 bwar season and he just waisted a huge hot streak according to the numbers. It could happen, it just kinda seems crazy.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 16:14:28 GMT -5
I guess you just can't accept xwOBA as a legitimate stat. I do. To each their own.
This post was for jlebowski.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 16:18:06 GMT -5
My point was the second half of 2015 and 2016, the two .830 plus OPS and OPS+ of 119 and 118 seasons are luck based on those stats. Those are basically bars I used to judge him and it seems he just got lucky those years. So my personal bar is way too high. I don't see how you think his WOBA goes down that much, yet his results improve that much. So your basically betting on him being crazy lucky? He has a long way to go to reach a 2.5 bwar season and he just waisted a huge hot streak according to the numbers. It could happen, it just kinda seems crazy. I don't get why you say he "wasted a huge hot streak" and can't understand what I'm saying about bad luck. I simply expect him to continue hitting the ball the way he has and getting better results because you can't be that far from expected results forever.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2018 16:45:29 GMT -5
My point was the second half of 2015 and 2016, the two .830 plus OPS and OPS+ of 119 and 118 seasons are luck based on those stats. Those are basically bars I used to judge him and it seems he just got lucky those years. So my personal bar is way too high. I don't see how you think his WOBA goes down that much, yet his results improve that much. So your basically betting on him being crazy lucky? He has a long way to go to reach a 2.5 bwar season and he just waisted a huge hot streak according to the numbers. It could happen, it just kinda seems crazy. I don't get why you say he "wasted a huge hot streak" and can't understand what I'm saying about bad luck. I simply expect him to continue hitting the ball the way he has and getting better results because you can't be that far from expected results forever. I had the stats backwards, thought you were saying you thought his expected results would drop from .330 to .310 to .320 yet his results would equal a 2.5 war player. When you said his actual results will rise, and the expected results say the same. I have wOBA, where do you get xwOBA? You still have to worry one hot streak is waisted. For example his May he had a .332 BABIP yet still sucked, so he hasn't been swinging a hot bat all year. Improved luck when he's not hot won't be a big help to his numbers and he usually only has a few hot streaks a year. Which is my major issue with him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 17:13:38 GMT -5
I don't get why you say he "wasted a huge hot streak" and can't understand what I'm saying about bad luck. I simply expect him to continue hitting the ball the way he has and getting better results because you can't be that far from expected results forever. I had the stats backwards, thought you were saying you thought his expected results would drop from .330 to .310 to .320 yet his results would equal a 2.5 war player. When you said his actual results will rise, and the expected results say the same. I have wOBA, where do you get xwOBA? You still have to worry one hot streak is waisted. For example his May he had a .332 BABIP yet still sucked, so he hasn't been swinging a hot bat all year. Improved luck when he's not hot won't be a big help to his numbers and he usually only has a few hot streaks a year. Which is my major issue with him. xwOBA is here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=BOS&min=100It also shows that JBJ should be hitting .251 instead of .200 and slugging .421 instead of .322. That site has so much interesting stuff to look at, it's amazing. What's really funny is that Mookie and JDM are both hitting less than expected as well.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2018 17:48:43 GMT -5
I had the stats backwards, thought you were saying you thought his expected results would drop from .330 to .310 to .320 yet his results would equal a 2.5 war player. When you said his actual results will rise, and the expected results say the same. I have wOBA, where do you get xwOBA? You still have to worry one hot streak is waisted. For example his May he had a .332 BABIP yet still sucked, so he hasn't been swinging a hot bat all year. Improved luck when he's not hot won't be a big help to his numbers and he usually only has a few hot streaks a year. Which is my major issue with him. xwOBA is here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=BOS&min=100It also shows that JBJ should be hitting .251 instead of .200 and slugging .421 instead of .322. That site has so much interesting stuff to look at, it's amazing. What's really funny is that Mookie and JDM are both hitting less than expected as well. Thanks good stuff, just wish it broke it down into months. Shifts are killing Bradley, as he's seeing one over 51% of the time. By far the highest of his career and his numbers the last two years are night and day with no shift or having the shift on. He has to adjust. Untill he overcomes that he'll never fully meet his expected numbers.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jun 28, 2018 18:15:12 GMT -5
I can't begin to follow all the present-day statistical stuff. I just enjoy the game. OK, I'm a dinosaur. That said, Bradley is such a tough decision for me. Such a shame that a great defender can't hit his weight. At some point a team has to do addition by subtraction. I think it's becoming time to let him go. As for his replacement (and the $$$ or prospects required), that's for others to determine. Could Boston move Holt or someone to left, shifting AB to center? It's just hard to fathom a guy struggling to hit .200 holding down center field for an elite club.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 28, 2018 21:04:58 GMT -5
Well this thread will rightfully die the rest of the season probably.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 28, 2018 21:30:08 GMT -5
I had the stats backwards, thought you were saying you thought his expected results would drop from .330 to .310 to .320 yet his results would equal a 2.5 war player. When you said his actual results will rise, and the expected results say the same. I have wOBA, where do you get xwOBA? You still have to worry one hot streak is waisted. For example his May he had a .332 BABIP yet still sucked, so he hasn't been swinging a hot bat all year. Improved luck when he's not hot won't be a big help to his numbers and he usually only has a few hot streaks a year. Which is my major issue with him. xwOBA is here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=BOS&min=100It also shows that JBJ should be hitting .251 instead of .200 and slugging .421 instead of .322. That site has so much interesting stuff to look at, it's amazing. What's really funny is that Mookie and JDM are both hitting less than expected as well. All the more reason the Sox will win the East. Bad luck, and they’re on pace for 105 wins 😂
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 29, 2018 5:11:52 GMT -5
Well this thread will rightfully die the rest of the season probably. Red Sox acquire Steve Pearce. Home run aside, Dombrowski may have ended the debate for us. Pearce is probably insurance for several players, but he's definitely JBJ insurance. Pierce is a platoon player who will fill in a lot, but he isn't JBJ insurance.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2018 5:51:37 GMT -5
I guess you just can't accept xwOBA as a legitimate stat. I do. To each their own. This post was for jlebowski. No worries, and I'm not completely discounting xwOBA. It's a reasonable data point and hitting the ball hard is obviously a good thing. I just don't think it can be used to explain away a full season's worth of mostly bad results from JBJ. ”A full season” is not really that big of a sample size. Flukey things can and regularly do happen in 600 PA samples.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 29, 2018 9:54:50 GMT -5
”A full season” is not really that big of a sample size. Flukey things can and regularly do happen in 600 PA samples. I agree it's not a huge sample size, but it's not 4 games either. I hope the last few games does mark the end of the cold streak for JBJ, but I think we need to temper expectations and not use it as vindication for what's been mostly a bad 6 months of baseball. The thing I jumped on yesterday wasn't so much the sample size but people saying he hasn't been bad and he's just been unlucky (xwOBA debate). To quote the movie Rounders: "Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas? It's a skill game Jo." The same applies to baseball. "Why was Ted Williams in the top 5 in batting every year? What, is he the luckiest guy in baseball?" Anyone here is free to quote exit velocities and draw what conclusions they may, but even a brief look at the top 50 in exit velocity and the top 50 in batting average will tell you there's not a perfect correlation (not even a good one, really). If anyone wants to break out a stats book and come up with an exact R 2 value go for it, it won't be good. Point is, JBJ hasn't been good this year. He certainly hasn't been as good as he was in 2016 and that opinion lines up perfectly with what you see when you watch the games (last week or so excluded). Except you’re equating AVG EV with xwOBA, and those are two fantastically different things. AVG EV probably tells you more about how big and strong a guy is than anything else. That’s like looking at hits a player has in a season and trying to decide if he’s a good player. You’re missing so much other context: XB, BB, total AB/PA...*defense*...that are required to make a judgement. That’s the point of xwOBA: it’s looking at how hard a ball was his, at what angle, and assigning a value, then summing up all of a player’s events. It includes non-batted ball events like BB and K. Just focusing on EV is silly. As Jimed noted, strikeouts alone make a huge difference. Take strikeouts out for all hitters, see what their stats look like, and I bet that correlates a lot better with EV. All proper statistical analysis requires context.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2018 9:55:32 GMT -5
”A full season” is not really that big of a sample size. Flukey things can and regularly do happen in 600 PA samples. I agree it's not a huge sample size, but it's not 4 games either. I hope the last few games does mark the end of the cold streak for JBJ, but I think we need to temper expectations and not use it as vindication for what's been mostly a bad 6 months of baseball. The thing I jumped on yesterday wasn't so much the sample size but people saying he hasn't been bad and he's just been unlucky (xwOBA debate). To quote the movie Rounders: "Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas? It's a skill game Jo." The same applies to baseball. "Why was Ted Williams in the top 5 in batting every year? What, is he the luckiest guy in baseball?" Anyone here is free to quote exit velocities and draw what conclusions they may, but even a brief look at the top 50 in exit velocity and the top 50 in batting average will tell you there's not a perfect correlation (not even a good one, really). If anyone wants to break out a stats book and come up with an exact R 2 value go for it, it won't be good. Point is, JBJ hasn't been good this year. He certainly hasn't been as good as he was in 2016 and that opinion lines up perfectly with what you see when you watch the games (last week or so excluded). You've done it now. Time to dig out my Rounders blue ray disc that I got for 3.99 and watch it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2018 10:06:40 GMT -5
Last two years teams have played Bradley on the shift 33.1% and 51.1%. His wOBA is .333 and .300 with no shift and .278 and .251 with the shift.
So you can fully expect that .300 to get close to his .330 expected when his luck improves. Thing is untill he figures out the shift, his wOBA will never match his xwOBA. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Reminds me of Ortiz, wasn't till he learned to hit against the shift till he looked elite again. Ortiz was an elite hitter and he struggled with it for years. Lost so many hits.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2018 10:28:13 GMT -5
Last two years teams have played Bradley on the shift 33.1% and 51.1%. His wOBA is .333 and .300 with no shift and .278 and .251 with the shift. So you can fully expect that .300 to get close to his .330 expected when his luck improves. Thing is untill he figures out the shift, his wOBA will never match his xwOBA. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Reminds me of Ortiz, wasn't till he learned to hit against the shift till he looked elite again. Ortiz was an elite hitter and he struggled with it for years. Lost so many hits. I guess that's one of the positives we can thank Adrian Gonzalez for. He kind or reminded Ortiz that the Monster was his friend. Ortiz was kind of pull happy and then started incorporating the opposite field a bit more once Gonzo arrived. His BA shot up over .300 for awhile, and again in his final season.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2018 10:37:56 GMT -5
Last two years teams have played Bradley on the shift 33.1% and 51.1%. His wOBA is .333 and .300 with no shift and .278 and .251 with the shift. So you can fully expect that .300 to get close to his .330 expected when his luck improves. Thing is untill he figures out the shift, his wOBA will never match his xwOBA. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Reminds me of Ortiz, wasn't till he learned to hit against the shift till he looked elite again. Ortiz was an elite hitter and he struggled with it for years. Lost so many hits. I'm relatively confident in JBJ, but the one open question for me in this debate is why he struggles when he does. What it looks like, and what many people have said, is that he seems to be trying to pull for power, and that's when he ends up grounding into the shift, whereas when he's going hot he's going with the pitch and hitting the other way, which results in Laser Show (w/ apologies to D. Pedroia). So the conclusion is that a bad approach is behind his slumps. I just don't have the eye for hitting mechanics to say, really. But how can we tell whether it's the approach vs. just messed up timing or mechanics? Like, could it be that messed up mechanics are making it look like he's trying to pull when really it's just that his swing is messed up?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2018 12:05:16 GMT -5
I'm relatively confident in JBJ, but the one open question for me in this debate is why he struggles when he does. What it looks like, and what many people have said, is that he seems to be trying to pull for power, and that's when he ends up grounding into the shift, whereas when he's going hot he's going with the pitch and hitting the other way, which results in Laser Show (w/ apologies to D. Pedroia). So the conclusion is that a bad approach is behind his slumps. I just don't have the eye for hitting mechanics to say, really. But how can we tell whether it's the approach vs. just messed up timing or mechanics? Like, could it be that messed up mechanics are making it look like he's trying to pull when really it's just that his swing is messed up? That's kind of what I'm trying to get at. When he swings out of his shoes at an 0-2 slider that didn't spend any time in the strike zone that's not bad luck. I have no eye for swing mechanics either so I'm not going to pretend to be his hitting coach, but I can listen to Jerry, Eck, and everyone else during the game who says his swing looks bad and believe it. Edit: I'm not that optimistic about a return to form, but that's fine. We need more people like you to counterbalance the people like me. No one is saying that his strike outs are bad luck. C'mon. What everyone is saying is that when he hits 108 mph line drives, he should get more hits and more extra base hits than he has gotten. Surely that is a reasonable statement. His mechanics and approach has nothing to do with whether a 108 mph line drive becomes a hit or not. He already more than did his job and did it well when he hits the ball like that. That is also what his xwOBA is saying.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2018 12:19:34 GMT -5
Last two years teams have played Bradley on the shift 33.1% and 51.1%. His wOBA is .333 and .300 with no shift and .278 and .251 with the shift. So you can fully expect that .300 to get close to his .330 expected when his luck improves. Thing is untill he figures out the shift, his wOBA will never match his xwOBA. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Reminds me of Ortiz, wasn't till he learned to hit against the shift till he looked elite again. Ortiz was an elite hitter and he struggled with it for years. Lost so many hits. I'm relatively confident in JBJ, but the one open question for me in this debate is why he struggles when he does. What it looks like, and what many people have said, is that he seems to be trying to pull for power, and that's when he ends up grounding into the shift, whereas when he's going hot he's going with the pitch and hitting the other way, which results in Laser Show (w/ apologies to D. Pedroia). So the conclusion is that a bad approach is behind his slumps. I just don't have the eye for hitting mechanics to say, really. But how can we tell whether it's the approach vs. just messed up timing or mechanics? Like, could it be that messed up mechanics are making it look like he's trying to pull when really it's just that his swing is messed up? He struggled when he first came up those first few times. So he changed his approach to more of an all or nothing type thing, compared to the good all around hitter he was in the minors. It worked, he showed power few thought he had. I just thought overtime he'd settle in kinda some where between both approaches. That hasn't happended, he's still swinging for the fences. For us it seems so obvious what he needs to do, but its not easy going away what made you so good. If I remember right he was streaky even in the minors, just not to this degree. At this point he is what he is. Maybe it just all comes together for him, but I wouldn't bet on it. He has access to way more data than we do. He knows the shift is killing him, yet he can't adjust. A ton of guys can't, because adjusting could make them even worse players. So yea I'd love to see him be more of a contact hitter and not trying for homeruns. I just don't think that will happen. Being able to adjust is really what seperates the really good hitters from the rest of the hitters.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2018 12:20:48 GMT -5
That's kind of what I'm trying to get at. When he swings out of his shoes at an 0-2 slider that didn't spend any time in the strike zone that's not bad luck. I have no eye for swing mechanics either so I'm not going to pretend to be his hitting coach, but I can listen to Jerry, Eck, and everyone else during the game who says his swing looks bad and believe it. Edit: I'm not that optimistic about a return to form, but that's fine. We need more people like you to counterbalance the people like me. No one is saying that his strike outs are bad luck. C'mon. What everyone is saying is that when he hits 108 mph line drives, he should get more hits and more extra base hits than he has gotten. Surely that is a reasonable statement. His mechanics and approach has nothing to do with whether a 108 mph line drive becomes a hit or not. He already more than did his job and did it well when he hits the ball like that. That is also what his xwOBA is saying. I agree with almost everything you've said here, but the issue isn't his bad luck on 108 mph line drives - it's that he goes through stretches where he's not hitting those line drives. For instance, in May his K rate was 36% and his hard contact was 32%, vs. 24% and 44%, respectively, in June. The question (at least for me) is what accounts for those differences, which have nothing to do with luck.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2018 12:26:00 GMT -5
No one is saying that his strike outs are bad luck. C'mon. What everyone is saying is that when he hits 108 mph line drives, he should get more hits and more extra base hits than he has gotten. Surely that is a reasonable statement. His mechanics and approach has nothing to do with whether a 108 mph line drive becomes a hit or not. He already more than did his job and did it well when he hits the ball like that. That is also what his xwOBA is saying. I agree with almost everything you've said here, but the issue isn't his bad luck on 108 mph line drives - it's that he goes through stretches where he's not hitting those line drives. For instance, in May his K rate was 36% and his hard contact was 32%, vs. 24% and 44%, respectively, in June. The question (at least for me) is what accounts for those differences, which have nothing to do with luck. Yeah, those are definitely issues, but they look like bigger issues than they are because when he is hitting the ball hard, he's not getting nearly enough hits. No one would be complaining about him at all if his wOBA was .100 points higher than his xwOBA. They'd be calling him an All-Star, and that's just as wrong as underrating him because of bad results.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2018 14:23:30 GMT -5
That's kind of what I'm trying to get at. When he swings out of his shoes at an 0-2 slider that didn't spend any time in the strike zone that's not bad luck. I have no eye for swing mechanics either so I'm not going to pretend to be his hitting coach, but I can listen to Jerry, Eck, and everyone else during the game who says his swing looks bad and believe it. Edit: I'm not that optimistic about a return to form, but that's fine. We need more people like you to counterbalance the people like me. No one is saying that his strike outs are bad luck. C'mon. What everyone is saying is that when he hits 108 mph line drives, he should get more hits and more extra base hits than he has gotten. Surely that is a reasonable statement. His mechanics and approach has nothing to do with whether a 108 mph line drive becomes a hit or not. He already more than did his job and did it well when he hits the ball like that. That is also what his xwOBA is saying. The only problem I have with what you're saying is that you make it seem like its all bad luck. The shift data and looking at Bradley spray chart show you it isn't just bad luck. You can hit lasers all the time, but if you keep hitting them to the same spot everytime you can't expect to get hits. There is a reason his shift numbers keep rising. He has a massive amount of batted balls in one area. You'd have to be stupid not to play the shift on him. That's where xwOBA has it faults. Bradley doesn't act like a normal or regular hitter, so untill he figures the shifts out this isn't just bad luck. It looks like an equal mix of bad luck and that he's highly predictable.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2018 15:30:54 GMT -5
Yeah, those are definitely issues, but they look like bigger issues than they are because when he is hitting the ball hard, he's not getting nearly enough hits. No one would be complaining about him at all if his wOBA was .100 points higher than his xwOBA. They'd be calling him an All-Star, and that's just as wrong as underrating him because of bad results. jmei called me out, rightfully so, for not taking all the advanced metrics into account. However, you're only quoting EV so I've got to point this out. Top ten AV EV according to Statcast: 1. Joey Gallow - terrible hit tool 2. Aaron Judge - averageish hit tool 3. Nelson Cruz - averageish hit tool 4. Miguel Cabrera - generational talent 5. Mark Trumbo - below average hit tool 6. Matt Olson - young, unfair to judge but has a bad batting average 7. Ryan Zimmerman - career above average hit tool, might not be there anymore 8. Jose Bautista - very bad hit tool the last few years Ok, top 8. I got bored. And I'm not a scout so take my assessments with a grain of salt. Point is hitting a baseball hard is a decent way to guess if a guy is going to be a good hitter (really hope it works for our draft class) but is not a guarantee over time. Also, look at the profile of these guys. They're 6'4" power hitters. They can make up for some swing and miss because they can hit a ball 120 mph hour to the opposite field. They're also mostly right handed and not subject to shifts to the degree that JBJ is. 108 mph exit velocity sounds impressive, but if you hit into the shift the majority of the time (as someone pointed out JBJ is prone to do) then it's for nothing and a line out is the expected outcome. JBJ could hit a ball 55 mph to the left side of the field and have a .485 BABIP and it would be sustainable until they stop shifting on him. I'm exaggerating, but you get my point. If you take into account his high strikeout rate, bad contact numbers, and the fact that he plays into the defense's strategy when he does put a decent ball in play I'm not sure how you expect the guy to do much. It's not just EV. It's xwOBA. You want to argue with stats, argue with who came up with xwOBA. There is more to xwOBA than just EV. I have not once said anything about strikeouts because they always have a .000 batting average and have nothing to do with luck.
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