radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Bryan Mata
Jul 25, 2019 16:17:39 GMT -5
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Post by radiohix on Jul 25, 2019 16:17:39 GMT -5
So after 25+ innings in AA, the 20 years-old is sporting a 2.86 xFIP. He throws hard, miss bats, supress opposition's slugging by keeping the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many people. That's the Roy Halladay style of pitching that I love. In fact the 2019 Mata's repertoire is Halladayish: Cutter, sinker & curveball. If he keeps this up for the rest of the season and stays healthy, he should be in the MLB top 50 right?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2019 16:19:26 GMT -5
So after 25+ innings in AA, the 20 years-old is sporting a 2.86 xFIP. He throws hard, miss bats, supress opposition's slugging by keeping the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many people. That's the Roy Halladay style of pitching that I love. In fact the 2019 Mata's repertoire is Halladayish: Cutter, sinker & curveball. If he keeps this up for the rest of the season and stays healthy, he should be in the MLB top 50 right? When do we start dreaming of him replacing Porcello next season?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 25, 2019 16:31:25 GMT -5
So after 25+ innings in AA, the 20 years-old is sporting a 2.86 xFIP. He throws hard, miss bats, supress opposition's slugging by keeping the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many people. That's the Roy Halladay style of pitching that I love. In fact the 2019 Mata's repertoire is Halladayish: Cutter, sinker & curveball. If he keeps this up for the rest of the season and stays healthy, he should be in the MLB top 50 right? When do we start dreaming of him replacing Porcello next season? You brought an important point the other day when you talked about his workload and how important it is to let him log innings before thinking of calling him up and I completely agree. If he stays healthy ( big if for any pitching prospect) I think they'll start him in Portland, let him dominate for a while then move him to AAA and see how the ML ball comes out of his hand. I hope they keep him in the Minors for the major part of 2020 to build innings, work on his arsenal (tunneling pitches, maybe get that changeup back etc) and then calling him for good if he keeps shoving. Man, it's been a looooong time since we dreamed about a pitching prospect in this forum lol
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 26, 2019 1:05:12 GMT -5
So after 25+ innings in AA, the 20 years-old is sporting a 2.86 xFIP. He throws hard, miss bats, supress opposition's slugging by keeping the ball on the ground and doesn't walk too many people. That's the Roy Halladay style of pitching that I love. In fact the 2019 Mata's repertoire is Halladayish: Cutter, sinker & curveball. If he keeps this up for the rest of the season and stays healthy, he should be in the MLB top 50 right? In last night's game, he was almost all FB, slider, curve with a fair amount of each. Early innings he was missing with the curve but not by much, later, he commanded all three very well. Maintained 95-97 throughout the outing. Hit 97 with his 75th pitch.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,446
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Bryan Mata
Jul 31, 2019 11:59:35 GMT -5
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Post by radiohix on Jul 31, 2019 11:59:35 GMT -5
Bryan's xFIP is at 2.73, his K/9 has increased, his BB/9 is practically the same and his GB%, while decreasing after the jump to AA, remains above avg at 52.5%. My question is: How many more innings are they gonna let him pitch? We're already at a career high with 82 IP, his previous high was 77 in 2017 and because of injuries he only pitched 72 innings last year. 110 innings maybe (give or take 6 more starts)? What do you guys think?
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 31, 2019 14:10:10 GMT -5
I'd say around 105-110 innings. That would give him about 7-8 more starts than he had last year which seems right to me, but any sign of fatigue I'd be comfortable shutting him down or at least giving him extra rest.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2019 14:13:00 GMT -5
Isn't a better way to limit innings is to put them in the bullpen at the end of the season? Pretty much every pitcher needs to be exposed to pitching out of the pen these days anyway.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 22, 2019 8:06:22 GMT -5
One thing I just noticed is that Mata has allowed six homers since his promotion to Portland after allowing only seven in the rest of his minor league career before that. Part of his success has been an outstanding ability to keep the ball in the park. It's what allowed his ERA to be solid despite his control issues in 2018. It's probably just a small sample, but a little bit of regression on his homer-suppressing ability as he climbs the ladder obviously makes it all the more important that his control improvement sticks.
Of course, he's still 20. Unsightly ERA aside, his adjustment to Double-A has been quite good for a player of his (or really any) age.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2019 16:04:34 GMT -5
3 of the six home runs are in his last 2 starts, 4 in his last 4. Gotta wonder the career high in IP is getting him a little bit.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2019 8:47:26 GMT -5
Innings total, better hitters, plus the Eastern League plays better for hitters than the Carolina League when the weather heats up. Not something I'm close to worried about, just a thing I noticed.
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Post by caseytins on Aug 23, 2019 23:50:04 GMT -5
I've also noticed a bit more of a struggle with runners on base. His GB ratio is still very good, but I think, with the advanced AA hitters, his misses up in the zone are being hit in the air more with harder contact. The last start he looked solid. Too bad it was suspended after 4 innings. Don't those suspended stats eventually count in AA when the suspended game is completed? Mata did K 8 in 4 innings of work..
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Post by ramireja on Oct 2, 2019 16:59:49 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 2, 2019 17:22:53 GMT -5
Wasn't Zambrano kind of chunky, or better put.. On the larger size?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 2, 2019 19:25:23 GMT -5
Wasn't Zambrano kind of chunky, or better put.. On the larger size? I was looking at pictures of zambrano as a rookie and while he’s definitely a thicccc boi he isn’t as big as he got later in his career I’m encouraged by what the guys here thought about Mata’s physical profile this year though so I’m not too worried about that being a big issue for him unless he lets it become one
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 2, 2019 19:37:15 GMT -5
IMO Zambrano’s weight has nothing to do with the comp
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 3, 2019 8:38:53 GMT -5
The comp specifically mentioned Zambrano's frame.
Personally, I don't see it. He's a big boy but looked to be in very good shape in August (I sat behind him while he charted as well as seeing him pitch). Great starter's build.
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 13, 2020 11:00:14 GMT -5
Wanted to float this Mata thread up to the top considering he is our highest ranked pitcher and will be in AA at 20!!
Personally, I will be very curious to hear what starts to be said about him during spring training as he's in big league camp (to start) for the first time. I know our system hasn't produced pitching, but it seems like the scouting reports on him are some of the most optimistic in terms of starting potential that we've had in some time.
Based on the reports on this site, it is curious that the industry seems a bit lukewarm on him as a prospect. Is the 2018 control meltdown the main reason for that?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 13, 2020 18:28:26 GMT -5
I selfishly do not want him to last long in MLB camp so he's down by the time we get there.
Mata is not better thought of because he kind of struggled in Portland. It's not as bad as 2018 but even accounting for age, I get that it wasn't a top 100 performance. He also walked 11 in 10.1 IP in Arizona, hitting 3 more, although he basically had 2 or 3 games where he just lost his control completely.
He needs to be more consistent to be a top 100 guy. I think that's a fair criticism of him.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 13, 2020 18:57:45 GMT -5
I selfishly do not want him to last long in MLB camp so he's down by the time we get there. Mata is not better thought of because he kind of struggled in Portland. It's not as bad as 2018 but even accounting for age, I get that it wasn't a top 100 performance. He also walked 11 in 10.1 IP in Arizona, hitting 3 more, although he basically had 2 or 3 games where he just lost his control completely. He needs to be more consistent to be a top 100 guy. I think that's a fair criticism of him. I am curious how much of it late season struggles were due to fatigue. Not that we'll ever rally know, but I wonder if that lead to control issues in AZ and maybe some inconsistency in Portland. He showed he can miss bats in AA. If he can improve his command and consistency he's REALLY intriguing.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 13, 2020 19:09:40 GMT -5
Yeah I've posted about this before but he really didn't do all that worse in AA if you dig a little deep. His xFIP in A+ and AA were 3.23 and 3.27, respectively. His K% and BB% didn't move all that much, he just gave up a lot more hits and HRs in AA: His BABIP jumped from .268 to .340 and his HR/FB% jumped up from 4.2% to 15.0%. Now some of that we shouldn't necessarily just dismiss as bad luck...his GB% did drop from an absurd 65.9% to a still above average 52.1%, but I do think its fair to regress the BABIP and HR/FB% a little to his career norms. I also remember him dominating through some of those AA starts and then getting bombed in an eventual inning where he'd get pulled.
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Bryan Mata
Feb 13, 2020 19:29:25 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 13, 2020 19:29:25 GMT -5
Yeah I've posted about this before but he really didn't do all that worse in AA if you dig a little deep. His xFIP in A+ and AA were 3.23 and 3.27, respectively. His K% and BB% didn't move all that much, he just gave up a lot more hits and HRs in AA: His BABIP jumped from .268 to .340 and his HR/FB% jumped up from 4.2% to 15.0%. Now some of that we shouldn't necessarily just dismiss as bad luck...his GB% did drop from an absurd 65.9% to a still above average 52.1%, but I do think its fair to regress the BABIP and HR/FB% a little to his career norms. I also remember him dominating through some of those AA starts and then getting bombed in an eventual inning where he'd get pulled. I saw Mata in person a few different times in AA last year and will second that. He would go through stretches where he was absolutely filthy and then have a bad inning or two later in the game that made his stat line look worse than it was. Guys went yard on him three or four times I think when I saw him, but he left pitches up. Fatigue definitely played a factor.
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Bryan Mata
Feb 14, 2020 11:21:26 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 14, 2020 11:21:26 GMT -5
That squares with my memory now that you mention it.
The one time I saw him pitch he didn't get out of the first, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by manfred on Feb 14, 2020 12:12:30 GMT -5
I am irrationally excited about Mata. He seems to be on a pretty great development curve. I think of all the Sox prospects, I have the highest hopes for him.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Feb 20, 2020 6:58:05 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 20, 2020 10:12:28 GMT -5
I agree and I also think Thad Ward is a big sleeper too, although I see him as a backend starter whereas Mata you can dream on a bit more.
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