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Post by patford on Mar 26, 2018 19:00:23 GMT -5
I'm as excited about Mata (and maybe more), than I am about any other player in the organization, but it seems odd to include a dude people have spent the last 10 days breathlessly hyping on a "don't overlook" list. Maybe it's my Red Sox-centric universe, but it doesn't feel that anyone is overlooking him. Maybe the emerging thinking is he should be one of the top ten prospects in baseball ? Josh Norris: Best arm I've seen this trip and it's not really close Not to mention he is not primarily seen as an arm guy. Or at least wasn't.
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Bryan Mata
Mar 26, 2018 19:51:02 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2018 19:51:02 GMT -5
Maybe the emerging thinking is he should be one of the top ten prospects in baseball ? Josh Norris: Best arm I've seen this trip and it's not really close Not to mention he is not primarily seen as an arm guy. Or at least wasn't. I’d be curious to know what the rest of the trip entailed. I mean, did he see (m)any legit high-level arms? You’re right, though...Mata was certainly never viewed as a big arm/stuff guy. But young, very age-advanced, highly projectable, efficient, and possessing extremely precocious pitchability is a great collection of traits to have. Idk...I’ve barely heard a peep about him on any prospect lists/sites, so maybe he *has* been underrated/overlooked given *relatively* pedestrian stuff and, on the surface, kind of modest results. For sure, guys who do well at low levels by “pitching” often get exposed in high A/AA if the stuff isn’t there (or even earlier, see Raudes). I think he’s one of those “Missouri” (Show Me!) arms that evaluators file in the back of their minds but are pretty easy to discount because, like defense, pitchability and efficiency for the most part lack “wow” factor. Those guys pop up real quickly when they eliminate the “buts...” people point to.
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Bryan Mata
Mar 26, 2018 20:01:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2018 20:01:01 GMT -5
I'm as excited about Mata (and maybe more), than I am about any other player in the organization, but it seems odd to include a dude people have spent the last 10 days breathlessly hyping on a "don't overlook" list. Maybe it's my Red Sox-centric universe, but it doesn't feel that anyone is overlooking him. Yeah, I mean he's #3 here. He's no Travis Shaw. In fairness, though, the Sox system is seen as pretty barren by prospect hound CW, and the “don’t overlook” is probably aimed at a much more casual fan crowd than people pointing to players like Trent Kemp and Jhonathan Diaz as 2018 breakout candidates. I mean, I have good friends who are big baseball fans and have played fantasy baseball for years. Doesn’t mean they don’t ask me what Lake Tahoe and Yosemite have to do with projecting Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2018 fantasy draft value.
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Bryan Mata
Mar 26, 2018 20:08:21 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2018 20:08:21 GMT -5
That last CB is nasty. His arm action is really smooth, like you said he def looks real low-effort. I notice he lands consistently, too, although he’s got a funny little toe-in so his plant foot’s angled about 20-30 degrees towards the third base side. He kind of stiffens his knee and falls across his turned leg. Makes me think of a pole-vaulter. Whatever, though...he obviously makes it work. Love the easy velo. 92-94 and touching 95 is real solid for an 18 y/o. Put him in the draft as a HSer and he’s probably going in the 1st round. He'd be a top ten pick if he was in the draft this year, I think. There's still even more room for velocity as time goes on (consistent mid 90's fastball). This kid has been my binky since the beginning of last year. I was starting threads how I'd rather trade Chavis over this kid, that's how much I love watching the progression of this kid. My first inclination was to (with consideration) discount the top-10 talk. But honestly...significant success in A-ball at 18 and now above-average to plus stuff across the board? With pretty much everything else you could want in a young pitcher? I think you’re absolutely right. Certainly sounds like a mid season top-100 (maybe even top-50 if his stuff continues to impress and he’s killing it in high A) to me, and that’s where usually 3-5 or so top 10 picks end up on lists at the end of the year. Tough to not get overexcited at this point.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Mar 27, 2018 14:55:20 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 28, 2018 9:31:32 GMT -5
Maybe the emerging thinking is he should be one of the top ten prospects in baseball ? Josh Norris: Best arm I've seen this trip and it's not really close Not to mention he is not primarily seen as an arm guy. Or at least wasn't. I read Norris' comment as meaning best pitcher he's seen. Mata doesn't have electric stuff or anything such that "arm" would mean he has a great arm in the literal sense. And no, there's no way Mata is a top 10 prospect in baseball. Even putting him in the top 100 (right now at least - I could see it post 2018 with a great year) would be super-aggressive. I'll also again take this opportunity to point out that there's no way John Sickels has ever seen Mata pitch...
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Post by m1keyboots on Mar 28, 2018 10:46:58 GMT -5
This may be a nonsensical complaint. Here goes it though. I for one wouldn't want to see him sitting mid-upper 90s. Not saying his body couldnt handle it, but his ability is already there and after seeing so many great hsrd throwing young RHSP go down it seems like low 90s is enough. Of course it's about how you GO about adding that velocity, and whether or not it adds to, or plays your fastball up. Its really just nit picking, but having a young homegrown starter is just so exciting, that selfishly I want to be hired as a personal arm protector. I could lift all his luggage and sign autographs for him. Just so his arm remains perfectly intact. From what I’ve read, the injury risk and velocity relationship is more about sitting velo/max velo versus overall velocity. Basically, it’s a product of effort. So I’d be happiest if I saw Mata having success touching 98-99 but sitting 93, rather than, as you say, having the same peak velo of 99 but sitting 95. “Pitching” beats throwing any day. I think we might agree on it seems more exciting to watch a guy who sits low to mid 90s, and then once in awhile jacks one at 99 with two strikes or elevated to give a guy a different look. More exciting than someone who just pumps 98 consistently. Although when I think of Kimbrel I think of nothing but excitement. It might just be a coincidence, but when I think of the big right-handers who throw hard consistently I think of injuries. Strasburg, to Grom, syndergaard, Eovaldi Etc.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 29, 2018 1:32:38 GMT -5
From what I’ve read, the injury risk and velocity relationship is more about sitting velo/max velo versus overall velocity. Basically, it’s a product of effort. So I’d be happiest if I saw Mata having success touching 98-99 but sitting 93, rather than, as you say, having the same peak velo of 99 but sitting 95. “Pitching” beats throwing any day. I think we might agree on it seems more exciting to watch a guy who sits low to mid 90s, and then once in awhile jacks one at 99 with two strikes or elevated to give a guy a different look. More exciting than someone who just pumps 98 consistently. Although when I think of Kimbrel I think of nothing but excitement. It might just be a coincidence, but when I think of the big right-handers who throw hard consistently I think of injuries. Strasburg, to Grom, syndergaard, Eovaldi Etc. Absolutely. Watching a guy really **pitch**...putting it on the black, up, down, in tight and corner low away. Changing speeds, movement, eye levels and location. Those pitchers who can start a game with four straight perfectly located fastballs. Corner away 92 2-seam. Then in tight at the hands, swung late at 96, riser. Maybe the batter nicks the next one at the letters a shade tight at 94, 4-seam fouled back. A screaming foul liner into the stands past 3b on a 93 2-seam back off the outside corner that the pitcher leaves just a little too close to the plate. Bends him back or freezes him with the 11-7 78-mph CB dropped in tight just shading the bottom of the zone. Then it’s 91, 95 knees, numbers with 2-seamer and 4 to the next batter. He flares weakly to SS reaching for a 92 2-seam out and away. Maybe the next batter gets a couple of benders, the first at 84 right out over the plate but low and with hard, late break the batter swings over. Then 77 with off-the table break that catches the zone but ends up buried away for called strike 2. Then 98 at the numbers with the 4-seam, way behind for strike three. Saves the changeup for later.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 29, 2018 12:51:48 GMT -5
From what I’ve read, the injury risk and velocity relationship is more about sitting velo/max velo versus overall velocity. Basically, it’s a product of effort. So I’d be happiest if I saw Mata having success touching 98-99 but sitting 93, rather than, as you say, having the same peak velo of 99 but sitting 95. “Pitching” beats throwing any day. I think we might agree on it seems more exciting to watch a guy who sits low to mid 90s, and then once in awhile jacks one at 99 with two strikes or elevated to give a guy a different look. More exciting than someone who just pumps 98 consistently. Although when I think of Kimbrel I think of nothing but excitement. It might just be a coincidence, but when I think of the big right-handers who throw hard consistently I think of injuries. Strasburg, to Grom, syndergaard, Eovaldi Etc. DeGrom doesn't really belong on that list, he throws hard but he doesn't sit particularly close to his max, and he's been largely healthy since coming to the big leagues. I think his only major injury in the big leagues (he had TJ in the minors) was the UCL nerve thing, which isn't really a stress injury as I understand it. His teammate, Steven Matz, is basically the poster boy for this though, he throws very close to his max all the time and, wouldn't you know it, has never been healthy. Also, some might disagree with the relative importance of velocity...
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 1, 2018 6:42:57 GMT -5
I think we might agree on it seems more exciting to watch a guy who sits low to mid 90s, and then once in awhile jacks one at 99 with two strikes or elevated to give a guy a different look. More exciting than someone who just pumps 98 consistently. Although when I think of Kimbrel I think of nothing but excitement. It might just be a coincidence, but when I think of the big right-handers who throw hard consistently I think of injuries. Strasburg, to Grom, syndergaard, Eovaldi Etc. Absolutely. Watching a guy really **pitch**...putting it on the black, up, down, in tight and corner low away. Changing speeds, movement, eye levels and location. Those pitchers who can start a game with four straight perfectly located fastballs. Corner away 92 2-seam. Then in tight at the hands, swung late at 96, riser. Maybe the batter nicks the next one at the letters a shade tight at 94, 4-seam fouled back. A screaming foul liner into the stands past 3b on a 93 2-seam back off the outside corner that the pitcher leaves just a little too close to the plate. Bends him back or freezes him with the 11-7 78-mph CB dropped in tight just shading the bottom of the zone. Then it’s 91, 95 knees, numbers with 2-seamer and 4 to the next batter. He flares weakly to SS reaching for a 92 2-seam out and away. Maybe the next batter gets a couple of benders, the first at 84 right out over the plate but low and with hard, late break the batter swings over. Then 77 with off-the table break that catches the zone but ends up buried away for called strike 2. Then 98 at the numbers with the 4-seam, way behind for strike three. Saves the changeup for later. And hopefully that Change-Up comes along to become a Wipeout pitch! :-)
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 1, 2018 6:46:39 GMT -5
I think we might agree on it seems more exciting to watch a guy who sits low to mid 90s, and then once in awhile jacks one at 99 with two strikes or elevated to give a guy a different look. More exciting than someone who just pumps 98 consistently. Although when I think of Kimbrel I think of nothing but excitement. It might just be a coincidence, but when I think of the big right-handers who throw hard consistently I think of injuries. Strasburg, to Grom, syndergaard, Eovaldi Etc. DeGrom doesn't really belong on that list, he throws hard but he doesn't sit particularly close to his max, and he's been largely healthy since coming to the big leagues. I think his only major injury in the big leagues (he had TJ in the minors) was the UCL nerve thing, which isn't really a stress injury as I understand it. His teammate, Steven Matz, is basically the poster boy for this though, he throws very close to his max all the time and, wouldn't you know it, has never been healthy. Also, some might disagree with the relative importance of velocity... This isn't meant to argue, but a BP fastball from Greinke is mid-to-upper 80s at this point. Of course, he is such an experience and great picture that he's able to locate at the lower velocities and get by the lineup multiple times. And I didn't mean the velocity saying to be a Max effort reason that the velocity goes up. Just because the ground doesn't Max out in the upper 90s, doesn't mean that throwing in the mid-90s half the time might not have had an effect. Although, I do think that Dan warthen slider had a serious effect on all those meds pictures as well as maxing out there velocity
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Bryan Mata
Apr 10, 2018 12:01:28 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Addam603 on Apr 10, 2018 12:01:28 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2018 12:21:53 GMT -5
Wow, he's the youngest by a good 8 months too. My goodness. The youngest guy in High A is Eguy Rosario in San Diego's system who had a .573 OPS in Low A last year but for some reason got a promotion... That said, not true that he's the only Red Sox on this list. Roniel Raudes is the 6th youngest player in the Carolina League (AND HE'S REPEATING!) and Hildemaro Requena is 9th youngest. It is very weird, though, to have Salem be the only team with guys on these lists. Usually the org has at least one guy on each, or at least the EL, Carolina, and SAL lists. EDIT: Actually, they also did a piece on the average age of teams and organizations: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/padres-phillies-have-youngest-teams-in-minors/Sox are only a tenth of a year younger than the league on average as an org, but that's pulled up by an old PawSox team.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 10, 2018 12:48:11 GMT -5
Wow, he's the youngest by a good 8 months too. My goodness. The youngest guy in High A is Eguy Rosario in San Diego's system who had a .573 OPS in Low A last year but for some reason got a promotion... That said, not true that he's the only Red Sox on this list. Roniel Raudes is the 6th youngest player in the Carolina League (AND HE'S REPEATING!) and Hildemaro Requena is 9th youngest. It is very weird, though, to have Salem be the only team with guys on these lists. Usually the org has at least one guy on each, or at least the EL, Carolina, and SAL lists.EDIT: Actually, they also did a piece on the average age of teams and organizations: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/padres-phillies-have-youngest-teams-in-minors/Sox are only a tenth of a year younger than the league on average as an org, but that's pulled up by an old PawSox team. Yeah part of that is a reflection of our bigger trades (Kopech for example makes the AAA list), and also the aggressive promotions of our own. For example Rafael Devers would still be 7th youngest in the Eastern League! In the South Atlantic League, the list stops at 19.1, but its worth noting that Kervin Suarez and Everlouis Lozada who were both ~19.3 on Opening Day weren't far off the pace.
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Bryan Mata
Apr 10, 2018 13:06:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Addam603 on Apr 10, 2018 13:06:01 GMT -5
Wow, he's the youngest by a good 8 months too. My goodness. The youngest guy in High A is Eguy Rosario in San Diego's system who had a .573 OPS in Low A last year but for some reason got a promotion... That said, not true that he's the only Red Sox on this list. Roniel Raudes is the 6th youngest player in the Carolina League (AND HE'S REPEATING!) and Hildemaro Requena is 9th youngest. It is very weird, though, to have Salem be the only team with guys on these lists. Usually the org has at least one guy on each, or at least the EL, Carolina, and SAL lists. EDIT: Actually, they also did a piece on the average age of teams and organizations: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/padres-phillies-have-youngest-teams-in-minors/Sox are only a tenth of a year younger than the league on average as an org, but that's pulled up by an old PawSox team. Excuse my blindness, not sure how I missed that. The fact about Raudes is extremely impressive.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2018 13:18:04 GMT -5
Wow, he's the youngest by a good 8 months too. My goodness. The youngest guy in High A is Eguy Rosario in San Diego's system who had a .573 OPS in Low A last year but for some reason got a promotion... That said, not true that he's the only Red Sox on this list. Roniel Raudes is the 6th youngest player in the Carolina League (AND HE'S REPEATING!) and Hildemaro Requena is 9th youngest. It is very weird, though, to have Salem be the only team with guys on these lists. Usually the org has at least one guy on each, or at least the EL, Carolina, and SAL lists.EDIT: Actually, they also did a piece on the average age of teams and organizations: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/padres-phillies-have-youngest-teams-in-minors/Sox are only a tenth of a year younger than the league on average as an org, but that's pulled up by an old PawSox team. Yeah part of that is a reflection of our bigger trades (Kopech for example makes the AAA list), and also the aggressive promotions of our own. For example Rafael Devers would still be 7th youngest in the Eastern League! In the South Atlantic League, the list stops at 19.1, but its worth noting that Kervin Suarez and Everlouis Lozada who were both ~19.3 on Opening Day weren't far off the pace. Good points. Logan Allen is on the Texas League list as well.
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 25, 2018 18:56:31 GMT -5
Had to go back to April to find this.
Wondering how excited I should be about the below the surface parts of Mata’s year.
Yes, the walks are absolutely ridiculous. But I think that’s more of him just trying to deal with his mechanics as his body develops. Eventually he’ll be fine.
But even while walking 7.42 guys per nine innings, he still has a 3.00 ERA. I get that ERA is a flawed stat, but he’s done a good job at keeping people from crossing the plate. In large part to his 60% ground ball rate.
And look at his batting average against and slugging against. Opponents are hitting .211 and slugging only .263. 7 extra base hits against 254 batters faced. Those are the really interesting numbers to me. Can someone a lot smarter than me tell me whether those numbers are as good as I think they are?
I guess my point is that besides the walks, Mata is having a damn good year. Take away those walks and we’re looking at a 19 year old kid dominating the competition. The upside of that kid is massive.
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Post by jclmontana on Jun 25, 2018 20:41:48 GMT -5
Take away those walks and we’re looking at a 19 year old kid dominating the competition. The upside of that kid is massive. [/quote]
Dude, stop plagiarizing my posts. I am absolutely certain I wrote that in the Henry Owens thread 3 years ago. Have some respect!
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Bryan Mata
Jun 25, 2018 21:05:42 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on Jun 25, 2018 21:05:42 GMT -5
Had to go back to April to find this. Wondering how excited I should be about the below the surface parts of Mata’s year. Yes, the walks are absolutely ridiculous. But I think that’s more of him just trying to deal with his mechanics as his body develops. Eventually he’ll be fine. But even while walking 7.42 guys per nine innings, he still has a 3.00 ERA. I get that ERA is a flawed stat, but he’s done a good job at keeping people from crossing the plate. In large part to his 60% ground ball rate. And look at his batting average against and slugging against. Opponents are hitting .211 and slugging only .263. 7 extra base hits against 254 batters faced. Those are the really interesting numbers to me. Can someone a lot smarter than me tell me whether those numbers are as good as I think they are? I guess my point is that besides the walks, Mata is having a damn good year. Take away those walks and we’re looking at a 19 year old kid dominating the competition. The upside of that kid is massive. Yeah, I’ve thought a lot about that too. It’s impossible to overlook the walks (and i wonder if, as historically a “pitchability” guy, he’s having issues with nibbling or experimenting with modifying his grips/mix), but the rest is pretty impressive. Clearly there’s a control/command issue, which probably explains the lower K rate, too. Idk if he’s struggling with attacking more advanced hitters, and, as I said, being too “fine.” He’s obviously trending up in GB vs FB, and there’s little change in terms of where batters are hitting it. Curious to know if he’s leaning on one pitch to develop/command it, given the jump in GB rate. He’s still very clearly limiting HR, and it’s possible that some of his inefficiency (his IFFB and GB rate being high...those should be easy outs) is related to poor defense...hence the possible tendency to nibble.
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Post by patford on Jun 25, 2018 21:42:19 GMT -5
I'm not overly concerned about the walks because walking people was not previously a problem for him. Could have something to do with him maturing physically and having to grow into his "new" body ?
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Bryan Mata
Jun 25, 2018 22:20:27 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 25, 2018 22:20:27 GMT -5
I'm not overly concerned about the walks because walking people was not previously a problem for him. Could have something to do with him maturing physically and having to grow into his "new" body ? Or the horrible strikezones in MiLB.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 26, 2018 8:12:24 GMT -5
Also, when looking at a lot of the performances of our minor league pitchers I have to wonder if this is reflective of a shift in development strategy. We haven't produced starters in years, so a new approach was in order.
The yankees seem to always have guys with control issues coming up and they hit on a few of them as starters the last couple years. Let's see what happens, Mata is still so young and performance to date is pretty darn impressive.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2018 9:21:18 GMT -5
I'm not overly concerned about the walks because walking people was not previously a problem for him. Could have something to do with him maturing physically and having to grow into his "new" body ? Or the horrible strikezones in MiLB. I don't think you can just dismiss the walks like this. You have to take the good with the bad. He's got an 18.5% walk rate this year. There have been seasons recently in which no pitcher in the system had a walk rate that high and threw 20 innings. Going back through 2011, which is as far back as our stat page goes, the only pitcher of any consequence to have a walk rate that high is the aforementioned Owens. Drop the bar to 15% and you add 2016 Darwinzon. It's an extremely concerning mark. Now, I will give you that it's REALLY weird that if you sort the system's pitchers by highest walk rate (min 20 ip), the pitchers ranked 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 have spent the year in Salem (with the pitchers in 7th and 8th having spent about half the year there. However, using those 7 and 8 spot guys as controls, it doesn't appear to be the league. Jordan Weems had a walk rate 6 percentage points higher in the Carolina League, but Yankory Pimentel's walk rate has been 14 percentage points lower. I think what we have here is that Joan Martinez, Mata, Tanner Houck, and Darwinzon Hernandez got challenged this year (Jared Oliver, the guy at #3, has always walked a lot of guys). Now, the solace we can take is that it's not like Mata has a history of this - his walk rate was 8% last year, 7.7% in the DSL the year before. If he repeats the level he'll probably still be one of the youngest players in the league next year, nevermind this year. But he absolutely needs to cut the walk rate before I'm buying. As for the idea of "horrible strike zones in MiLB," I don't understand how that would disproportionately affect him as opposed to every other pitcher we've ever seen come through the system.
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Post by patford on Jun 26, 2018 11:28:33 GMT -5
Another possibility is the system has asked him to work on his secondary pitches which he has supposedly not commanded as well as his FB. Walks really concern me when a guy has a longish track record of walking tons of batters with no signs of progression except for little windows which look encouraging until the problem returns again (Henry Owens and Kopech).
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 26, 2018 12:11:16 GMT -5
(Henry Owens and Kopech). .... Okay, so there's no similarity at all between those two. Owens combined a bad fastball with bad location, forcing him to nibble and miss or get too much of the plate and get annihilated. Michael Kopech is currently reworking his curveball ,which is a big reason for his struggles statistically the last two months. He pairs that reworked/work-in-progress curve with what is almost certainly the best fastball in minor league baseball. Speaking as someone who was a comparative skeptic on Kopech (meaning I think he's more of a Top-30 prospect than a Top-10 prospect), having Bryan Mata turn out to be anything like Kopech would be a gift. EDIT:
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