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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2019 12:40:29 GMT -5
I was looking at his scouting report and it mentioned him as a #4 type starter or reliever. Based on his changes does his ceiling increase to perhaps a mid-rotation starter down the road? Somebody who can pitch 180 - 200 innings with quality, like a really good 3 (on a 90 - 95 win type team) who in his best years is like a #2 starter?
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 20, 2019 15:49:58 GMT -5
I think the durability questions are the biggest thing holding the projections back. A guy that pitches 120 quality innings a year is valuable, but does that make him more than a 4/5? Guess the evaluation of pitchers is going to have to change a bit as pitching staffs evolve and way less guys are throwing even 175 inning s a year.
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Post by caseytins on Jun 21, 2019 22:47:41 GMT -5
Long time reader, casual poster. How does his track record, and continued progression compare to Eduardo Rodriguez? Just wondering. Mata is more advanced at his current age than E-Rod was at 20. Remember, Mata recently turned 20. If you look at their progression, Mata has better peripherals. His GB rates cannot be understated either. His stuff is simply nasty and batters really struggle making solid contact. I think that it's a pretty decent comparison, however, in terms of their paths. I am probably the biggest Mata fan on this board, so I could be a little biased.
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Post by caseytins on Jun 21, 2019 22:57:19 GMT -5
I was looking at his scouting report and it mentioned him as a #4 type starter or reliever. Based on his changes does his ceiling increase to perhaps a mid-rotation starter down the road? Somebody who can pitch 180 - 200 innings with quality, like a really good 3 (on a 90 - 95 win type team) who in his best years is like a #2 starter? Mata is definitely a starter. For me he has the ceiling of a #2 and a floor of a back end starter. He's still so young that you can never predict how the body will hold up. His delivery isn't the cleanest, yet it isn't the worst either. I like his chances of holding up and eventually becoming a #2 type guy who can throw 180 innings or so. I think he's about two years away from being MLB ready.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 21, 2019 23:00:52 GMT -5
I think he could be ERod quality, but I'd rather they be cautious with him to maximize his control which they did not do with ERod. I know it's difficult to do this a lot of the time. But it's a crying shame to use up a year of control for him if you don't think you can get more than 140 innings out of him. And he's never been beyond 77 IP yet. I'd definitely make sure he's built up to 140ish innings before I even think of using up a year of control on him. I wouldn't push for him in the majors sooner than late 2021.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 22, 2019 1:39:21 GMT -5
Agree, they have to fix mata here in Salem. When he speeds up the delivery, the front shoulder gets out of whack, his balance gets off and the ball sails.
His pure stuff is probably the best of all the pitching prospects we have, and his control issues should be fixable. I think his ceiling is directly tied to his health and ability to control his pitches.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2019 15:52:18 GMT -5
Long time reader, casual poster. How does his track record, and continued progression compare to Eduardo Rodriguez? Just wondering. Mata is more advanced at his current age than E-Rod was at 20. Remember, Mata recently turned 20. If you look at their progression, Mata has better peripherals. His GB rates cannot be understated either. His stuff is simply nasty and batters really struggle making solid contact. I think that it's a pretty decent comparison, however, in terms of their paths. I am probably the biggest Mata fan on this board, so I could be a little biased. Strong disagree that Mata is more advanced at the same age. Rodriguez split his age 20 season between High A and Double-A, and after that year was a consensus top-75 prospect in the game. Only way that'll happen with Mata is if he stays healthy the rest of the way, gets promoted in like early July, and shoves. That can definitely happen, so don't misunderstand me, but my point is that his keeping up with ERod's progression at the same age is probably a best-case scenario. I don't think there's any outcome for this season that can be reasonably expected in which Mata is clearly ahead of where Rodriguez was. That said, I do agree with you that it's a fair comparison to make as a barometer of where he's at. The thing is, the step forward Rodriguez made after getting traded to the Red Sox (I forget what it was and need to look it up, but the O's were trying to get him to do something, and after the trade, the Red Sox let him do what he wanted and he took off) came in his age 21 season, so to keep up, Mata needs to continue improving. For him, that could come by staying healthy next year.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on Jun 22, 2019 20:03:55 GMT -5
The O's thought his change up was "too hard" and he should throw it less lol
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 23, 2019 17:17:41 GMT -5
The O's thought his change up was "too hard" and he should throw it less lol RIGHT. Thank you for that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2019 11:05:41 GMT -5
Bump. Might need this in a bit.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 1, 2019 14:30:37 GMT -5
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Post by caseytins on Jul 1, 2019 18:08:21 GMT -5
I am glad for the promotion. He is ready for AA.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 1, 2019 22:43:01 GMT -5
I was looking at his scouting report and it mentioned him as a #4 type starter or reliever. Based on his changes does his ceiling increase to perhaps a mid-rotation starter down the road? Somebody who can pitch 180 - 200 innings with quality, like a really good 3 (on a 90 - 95 win type team) who in his best years is like a #2 starter? That’s exactly where I envision him as a 10-20% outcome. I’m a little on the high side, I think, but his velo increase, the improvement in command/control, and the ever-increasing GB rate are encouraging, particularly given his youth. He’s probably still got even a little more velo to add, because at just 20 he’s still filling out. I’d imagine he could see gains from more leg strength/drive. And the GB rate (coupled with the fact that he misses some bats) is something that translates well to MLB, I’d expect. He might be a bit volatile (like Porcello), since he’s going to have some good/bad BABIP luck. But a GB pitcher with a K rate around 9 per 9, especially if he limits walks, has solid potential. I think best-case he’ll probably have some high-4 ERA years, but alternatively some low-3s when he’s limiting hard contact, suppressing (or lucking into) BABIP...especially with a strong INF defense...and **limiting HR**. He’s very clearly given up a consistently low HR/FB rate in the minors, and has a low FB rate to begin with, so staying away from walks and the long ball should add up to some nice seasons. He just needs to stay healthy...fair number of nagging injuries so far.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 1, 2019 22:45:46 GMT -5
Mata is more advanced at his current age than E-Rod was at 20. Remember, Mata recently turned 20. If you look at their progression, Mata has better peripherals. His GB rates cannot be understated either. His stuff is simply nasty and batters really struggle making solid contact. I think that it's a pretty decent comparison, however, in terms of their paths. I am probably the biggest Mata fan on this board, so I could be a little biased. Strong disagree that Mata is more advanced at the same age. Rodriguez split his age 20 season between High A and Double-A, and after that year was a consensus top-75 prospect in the game. Only way that'll happen with Mata is if he stays healthy the rest of the way, gets promoted in like early July, and shoves. That can definitely happen, so don't misunderstand me, but my point is that his keeping up with ERod's progression at the same age is probably a best-case scenario. I don't think there's any outcome for this season that can be reasonably expected in which Mata is clearly ahead of where Rodriguez was. That said, I do agree with you that it's a fair comparison to make as a barometer of where he's at. The thing is, the step forward Rodriguez made after getting traded to the Red Sox (I forget what it was and need to look it up, but the O's were trying to get him to do something, and after the trade, the Red Sox let him do what he wanted and he took off) came in his age 21 season, so to keep up, Mata needs to continue improving. For him, that could come by staying healthy next year. Especially with how Rodriguez fared after the trade, once the leg issues cleared up and they instituted some repertoire use changes. He was terrific in Portland.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2019 6:49:03 GMT -5
To be fair, he is keeping up with that track. We'll see how he does in Portland. Really hoping he lines up for the series in Bowie in early August.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 15, 2019 23:09:14 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 16, 2019 2:07:37 GMT -5
Mata is a clear cut top 2 prospect in our organization and with his young age and production, warrants a clear cut spot in the top 100 prospects lost
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Post by telson13 on Jul 16, 2019 2:53:26 GMT -5
Mata is a clear cut top 2 prospect in our organization and with his young age and production, warrants a clear cut spot in the top 100 prospects lost I’d agree. I think it’s reasonable to put a 50 FV on him right now, given the premium velocity, four (usable) pitches, improved command, and some success against overwhelmingly older competition. He’s **very** age-advanced for AA (barely 20, when the average age is around 24, and most legit prospects are 22-23), and he certainly hasn’t been overmatched. As Chris noted, he’s basically reproducing Rodriguez’s progression right now. And while Eddie’s struggled with injuries and inconsistency, he’s a 3 when he’s out there, and still has some upside beyond that. I also think Mata’s excellent GB rate shouldn’t be underestimated (it’s down a bit in AA) and his historical HR suppression taken into account (his HR/FB rate is uncharacteristically high in Portland, too, with an unsightly .342 BABIP too, hence the ugly 4.60 ERA but superb 2.85 xFIP). I think it’s pretty likely that if his ERA comes more into line with the peripherals, as we see some regression on the BABIP & HR rates, he’ll show up on the offseason lists in the 65-90 range. At some point, CW is going to catch up to the combo of stuff and production.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2019 5:33:25 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2019 6:07:57 GMT -5
Mata is a clear cut top 2 prospect in our organization and with his young age and production, warrants a clear cut spot in the top 100 prospects lost At this point, I can't disagree about the top 100 list. I was going to post and write "wait until he pitches a 100 innings first," but I look at previous lists and see Anderson Espinoza on them. Mata basically has the same kind of mix as Espinoza. Always a big Mata fan, the year last year was a little funky, but Eddy Romero explained in that Masslive article that he was still growing last year and needed to learn to repeat everything (delivery wise) with his growing size and muscle memories. That's a certainly reasonable reason why a kid that young could struggle with control. Mata certainly proved that it was a blip so far too. His stuff is even better than ever. He'll be the kid every team is asking for in the Sox farm system REALLY soon, if not already. Arms like this comes around only once or twice a decade it seems, even in a good farm system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 16, 2019 6:24:15 GMT -5
If you ask me today, he's certainly top 3, but yeah, that might be a conversation the brass here has soon as far as no. 2 in the system. Clear cut? Not so sure on that. I know Dalbec's batting average has been low for a couple months, but his BABIP is also incredibly low, making me wonder if he's just getting unlucky. HIs BIP profile has been VERY FB heavy though, so it might not necessarily be.
At any rate, potential 30 HR, above-average defender at 3B who put a dent in his K rate this year is nothing to shake a stick at. You could certainly defensibly put the two in any order, but my point is only that I wouldn't call it "clear cut" that one should be ranked ahead of the other.
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Post by caseytins on Jul 16, 2019 7:49:21 GMT -5
Mata is a clear cut top 2 prospect in our organization and with his young age and production, warrants a clear cut spot in the top 100 prospects lost This has been my belief for a few months. For me, he could even be in consideration for #1. I see Mata and Casas as the clear top 2 in our system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 16, 2019 9:02:35 GMT -5
He was taught the cutter in spring training. Different pitch. A cutter is different than a 2 seam.
Espinoza's breaking stuff was much better than Mata's, whereas Mata has the cutter. Much different body types. Don't really see the comp there.
But just do it doesn't seem like I'm trashing him: He's currently the best SP prospect they've had since Groome was healthy, and their best high minors SP prospect since Eduardo Rodriguez.
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Post by caseytins on Jul 16, 2019 16:21:07 GMT -5
He was taught the cutter in spring training. Different pitch. A cutter is different than a 2 seam. Espinoza's breaking stuff was much better than Mata's, whereas Mata has the cutter. Much different body types. Don't really see the comp there. But just do it doesn't seem like I'm trashing him: He's currently the best SP prospect they've had since Groome was healthy, and their best high minors SP prospect since Eduardo Rodriguez. Espinoza, E-Rod, and Mata all have one thing in common: they were all promising young arms. All three have different deliveries, body types. and pitches. I will continue to lead the Mata train. His new slider mix, along with whatever you want to call the FB have me quite excited..
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Post by telson13 on Jul 17, 2019 22:13:55 GMT -5
If you ask me today, he's certainly top 3, but yeah, that might be a conversation the brass here has soon as far as no. 2 in the system. Clear cut? Not so sure on that. I know Dalbec's batting average has been low for a couple months, but his BABIP is also incredibly low, making me wonder if he's just getting unlucky. HIs BIP profile has been VERY FB heavy though, so it might not necessarily be. At any rate, potential 30 HR, above-average defender at 3B who put a dent in his K rate this year is nothing to shake a stick at. You could certainly defensibly put the two in any order, but my point is only that I wouldn't call it "clear cut" that one should be ranked ahead of the other. Fair, although for me the kicker is the age difference. I think Dalbec’s FB-heavy approach is going to limit his BABIP long-term, but I also think that his OBP will be fine, and he’ll hit plenty of HR, so he should still be offensively valuable. And he’s got the look of a plus defender at a value position. But he’s 24, making him 3 years, 10 months older than Mata. And they’re playing at the same level. Sure, Dalbec has what amounts to a full season of AA (essentially) under his belt, and Mata only three starts. But in terms of advancement, particularly given Dalbec’s BA struggles and Mata’s solid performance so far (upping his k rate, no less, and with a sterling xFIP), they’re pretty close. While I give Dalbec credit for a great job cutting the whiff rate, especially after a historically difficult jump, the questions about his bat do linger some. In that way, i think both still have pretty broad outcome curves, probably pretty similar in width, but I think Mata’s premium velo and solid repertoire outweigh Dalbec’s premium power and solid defense. Dalbec’s K questions/hit tool (BA/approach) questions are similar to Mata’s command question, in that both will probably determine their ultimate ceilings. And that’s where age is a huge separator for me: Mata’s command issues appear to be largely a product of his upwards physical development trajectory and changing pitch mix. Dalbec’s a lot more likely to be “locked in” as far as style. So yeah, maybe not “clear-cut,” because positional players are simply less risky than pitchers, but I’d give Mata a pretty solid edge right now. In all honesty, my first reaction to pf45’s Espinoza comp was to be incredulous...but in a way he’s right. Mata is showing a very similar profile at a similar age to Espinoza (tho you’re right about breakers, pending further data on Mata’s CU/SL and what happens with his CB). He simply didn’t explode out of the gate. I think he’s probably quite underrated as far as CW because of that, and his struggles last year. But what he’s showing now borders on remarkable. That’s #1 ceiling stuff, even if that outcome likelihood remains quite low. If he finishes up AA in line with what he’s done there so far (figuring in positive regression on his BABIP, HR/FB rate, and LOB%, all of which are out of line with his “normal”)...say, low-3 ERA/FIP/xFIP with a K/9 at 10...whew, that’s a helluva job by a 20 y/o at that level. Super exciting stuff there.
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