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Passan outlook on 2018-19 Free Agent Class
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 28, 2017 9:37:49 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2017 10:04:44 GMT -5
I'd be focusing on Otani and Otani only, if anyone. I think everyone else ends up drastically overpaid.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 28, 2017 11:09:18 GMT -5
I would anticipate the Yankees to wind up with both Harper and Machado, and I think they'll be heavily in the mix for Otani or eventually Kershaw as well. They're going to want a big pitcher to go with Tanaka, assuming they sign him, and Severino.
It's scary to think about what that lineup will look like with Machado and Harper very much in their prime joining Sanchez, Judge, and eventually Torres And Frazier (and perhaps Rutherford).
The Red Sox, OTOH, have Devers for 3b - I'm assuming Machado won't be a SS option by then, so the Sox don't need to spend there. The outfield is locked up through 2020. I would assume JBJ would either play out his option and leave and I hope if Betts stays healthy that the Red Sox lock him up long-term. They'd need one more OF, not necessarily a corner one. It certainly wouldn't need to be Bryce Harper, as great as he is.
If the Sox have the money to get one big free, and one big free agent only, I would agree with jimed and go hard after Otani, but if it's just a posting fee, there would be a ton of competition. Not sure how that works if a bunch of teams are bidding the maximum posting fee.
If it were just a free agent frenzy I'd expect the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs to be heavily involved, but I don't think that's the case here?
Unless Price hates being in Boston that much (and that's a possibility) I doubt he opts out. My gut tells me TJ surgery is somewhere in his future and he'll take the guaranteed Boston money.
I'm guessing the Sox can find a way to phase out Hanley before his option vests...but I don't see any of Donaldson, Harper, Machado, or even Kershaw on the Red Sox (although Kershaw would be the most likely candidate of those guys).
It seems to me the Sox have to wait and see on Xander as in he can play SS well enough by 2020 or does his bat merit a move to the corner OF and a long-term deal?
They also have to decide among Porcello and Sale. Doubt they can afford both and if Sale is then who he is now, he will be quite expensive.
I think the Sox are not going to be players in that free agent crop while the Yankees and their young core will be, and the difference will be quite noticeable by 2019. The Yankees are well positioned. The Red Sox time is now and the clock is ticking because between the money the Yankees have, the quality of the free agents available, and that good young core and good farm system they have, they will have their best teams since that 1996 - 2000 era.
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2017 13:32:13 GMT -5
I really hope the Yankees are stupid enough to spend over $1 billion dollars next offseason. I mean this is the year that they finally act like they used to 20 years ago, right? That should give them a decade of getting out from those contracts after a few good seasons. BTW, Tanaka has an opt-out next year as well, so the Yankees might have to re-sign him also.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 28, 2017 18:29:51 GMT -5
I really hope the Yankees are stupid enough to spend over $1 billion dollars next offseason. I mean this is the year that they finally act like they used to 20 years ago, right? That should give them a decade of getting out from those contracts after a few good seasons. BTW, Tanaka has an opt-out next year as well, so the Yankees might have to re-sign him also. I get what you're saying...but flip it around. It's kind of like a Yankees fan saying I'm glad the Sox have to pony up all that dough to extend Betts, Sale, and Xander or Porcello if either of the latter two are worthwhile, especially if the farm system doesn't have a ready replacement. Fact of the matter is with Harper and Machado, even if the back end of those deals aren't the greatest, those are young elite multi-faceted (not DH types like Giambi) free agents and carry less risk than pitchers. The Yanks would likely get burned at some point, but might enjoy a good five years of prime seasons from these stars along with their younger core coming to maturation. That gives them a good long window to succeed.
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2017 19:03:50 GMT -5
I really hope the Yankees are stupid enough to spend over $1 billion dollars next offseason. I mean this is the year that they finally act like they used to 20 years ago, right? That should give them a decade of getting out from those contracts after a few good seasons. BTW, Tanaka has an opt-out next year as well, so the Yankees might have to re-sign him also. I get what you're saying...but flip it around. It's kind of like a Yankees fan saying I'm glad the Sox have to pony up all that dough to extend Betts, Sale, and Xander or Porcello if either of the latter two are worthwhile, especially if the farm system doesn't have a ready replacement. Fact of the matter is with Harper and Machado, even if the back end of those deals aren't the greatest, those are young elite multi-faceted (not DH types like Giambi) free agents and carry less risk than pitchers. The Yanks would likely get burned at some point, but might enjoy a good five years of prime seasons from these stars along with their younger core coming to maturation. That gives them a good long window to succeed. Keep in mind that Harper will probably get $40M + per year for probably 10 years, which will require him to be at least a 5 WAR player every year (minus inflation if it continues to rise, which is no guarantee) to break even. He has had a 1.4 and 3.5 fWAR season for 2 of the last 3 years and will likely be in his late 30s by the end of the contract. His health is questionable in his early 20s and that usually doesn't improve with age.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 28, 2017 19:09:50 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not looking forward to Machado and Harper going to New York. Sure, the contracts won't be great but they will give the Yankees the best players in the organization (franchise players, which is better than anything they have in their system or on their ballclub).
Machado might be the best short stop in baseball if they stick him there.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 28, 2017 19:51:57 GMT -5
I get what you're saying...but flip it around. It's kind of like a Yankees fan saying I'm glad the Sox have to pony up all that dough to extend Betts, Sale, and Xander or Porcello if either of the latter two are worthwhile, especially if the farm system doesn't have a ready replacement. Fact of the matter is with Harper and Machado, even if the back end of those deals aren't the greatest, those are young elite multi-faceted (not DH types like Giambi) free agents and carry less risk than pitchers. The Yanks would likely get burned at some point, but might enjoy a good five years of prime seasons from these stars along with their younger core coming to maturation. That gives them a good long window to succeed. Keep in mind that Harper will probably get $40M + per year for probably 10 years, which will require him to be at least a 5 WAR player every year (minus inflation if it continues to rise, which is no guarantee) to break even. He has had a 1.4 and 3.5 fWAR season for 2 of the last 3 years and will likely be in his late 30s by the end of the contract. His health is questionable in his early 20s and that usually doesn't improve with age. If the Yanks are trying to win WAR efficiency or something like that, I guess so, but they're going to win more games even if they overpay to do so, something the Yankees normally don't mind doing if they win. And the object is to accumulate more wins than necessarily be WAR efficient, particularly if you print money the way the Yankees do. Again they have a young cheap core surrounding these guys so it's not like they're on the hook for many other huge contracts. The only terrible one is the Ellsbury one. They're off the hook with most of the others.
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2017 19:54:04 GMT -5
Keep in mind that Harper will probably get $40M + per year for probably 10 years, which will require him to be at least a 5 WAR player every year (minus inflation if it continues to rise, which is no guarantee) to break even. He has had a 1.4 and 3.5 fWAR season for 2 of the last 3 years and will likely be in his late 30s by the end of the contract. His health is questionable in his early 20s and that usually doesn't improve with age. If the Yanks are trying to win WAR efficiency or something like that, I guess so, but they're going to win more games even if they overpay to do so, something the Yankees normally don't mind doing if they win. And the object is to accumulate more wins than necessarily be WAR efficient, particularly if you print money the way the Yankees do. Again they have a young cheap core surrounding these guys so it's not like they're on the hook for many other huge contracts. The only terrible one is the Ellsbury one. They're off the hook with most of the others. Like I said, I hope they get right back to their old ways. They really don't print money or they would never stop buying free agents like they have for years now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 28, 2017 20:05:04 GMT -5
If the Yanks are trying to win WAR efficiency or something like that, I guess so, but they're going to win more games even if they overpay to do so, something the Yankees normally don't mind doing if they win. And the object is to accumulate more wins than necessarily be WAR efficient, particularly if you print money the way the Yankees do. Again they have a young cheap core surrounding these guys so it's not like they're on the hook for many other huge contracts. The only terrible one is the Ellsbury one. They're off the hook with most of the others. Like I said, I hope they get right back to their old ways. They really don't print money or they would never stop buying free agents like they have for years now. They are the most valuable franchise in all of sports. They can spend what they want. They know that there are diminishing returns on free agents and that the best ones to get our the best of the best. Spending $40 million on a 27 year old Bryce Harper makes more sense than spending $20 million on a 32 year old Hanley and $20 million more on Sandoval.
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Post by dirtdog on May 28, 2017 22:22:13 GMT -5
I dont know, Hal Steinbrenner certainly isnt his father. While I am sure George loved his money, he always seemed have a will to win. Hal just seems to have a will to make money.
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Post by dirtdog on May 28, 2017 22:26:31 GMT -5
Oh and I dont see Kershaw leaving the NL. While I do believe has a chance to go down as an all time great, it has to be nice to face a pitcher every 9 ABs instead of a DH. I'd be real surprised if he left the Dodgers, never mind the NL.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 28, 2017 22:45:01 GMT -5
I dont know, Hal Steinbrenner certainly isnt his father. While I am sure George loved his money, he always seemed have a will to win. Hal just seems to have a will to make money. Hal spent 450 million in the off-seasons of 2008 and 2009 when George left the team to him to take over. George was still alive but wasn't really a part of things in the baseball front office. Don't be fooled, the Yankees will spend money that will shock people all over again to probably numbers will even be a surprise in today's baseball when it comes to contracts. I'll just shrug my shoulders and say, well the Yankees are back I guess.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 28, 2017 22:49:12 GMT -5
Oh and I dont see Kershaw leaving the NL. While I do believe has a chance to go down as an all time great, it has to be nice to face a pitcher every 9 ABs instead of a DH. I'd be real surprised if he left the Dodgers, never mind the NL. This is the one future question of the Yankees. Who are they going to get to lead their rotations in the future? I'm guessing they start with Yu Darvish next year, resigning Tanaka this off-season and I'm also guessing they're going to do everything they can do to get Otani. The only answer they have in the future who has cheap control is Severino. That's it in their rotation. Sheffield is in the minors, but I can easily see him traded in the future.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 28, 2017 23:30:17 GMT -5
Hal spent 450 million in the off-seasons of 2008 and 2009 when George left the team to him to take over. George was still alive but wasn't really a part of things in the baseball front office. Don't be fooled, the Yankees will spend money that will shock people all over again to probably numbers will even be a surprise in today's baseball when it comes to contracts. I'll just shrug my shoulders and say, well the Yankees are back I guess. The thing about the Yankees is they do in big binges. The old man used to do it every year and didn't care much about his farm system. Cashman is smarter than that. As I read earlier the Yanks could have made a big deal with Atlanta for Heyward that would have cost them a lot of young talent but refrained. They dealt Miller and Chapman away for huge talent when they were still in the playoff race last season. The Yankees do things smarter. But they also splurge. 2009 was a big splurge year and 2014 was as well. The talent is 2018 is even better than the talent was in 2009 when they signed a pitcher and a 1b, along with a lesser pitcher. They are definitely gearing up for 2018-2019 where they are signing two guys who are young for free agency and could play middle of the diamond positions if necessary, but won't be needed to. I think the Yankees figured out splurging was the way to go because you could sign two 1st round talents but only give up one first rounder and a 2nd rounder instead of 1st rounders in consecutive years if you spread out the major signings. The rules have since changed, so I'm not sure of the impact there. I believe the 1st round picks are protected now so it's less of a deterrent to sign a major talent, although I don't know that it's still better to binge rather than spread the signings around.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 10:59:59 GMT -5
Hal spent 450 million in the off-seasons of 2008 and 2009 when George left the team to him to take over. George was still alive but wasn't really a part of things in the baseball front office. Don't be fooled, the Yankees will spend money that will shock people all over again to probably numbers will even be a surprise in today's baseball when it comes to contracts. I'll just shrug my shoulders and say, well the Yankees are back I guess. Everyone has been saying that since then. I'll wait until it happens.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 14:30:28 GMT -5
Hal spent 450 million in the off-seasons of 2008 and 2009 when George left the team to him to take over. George was still alive but wasn't really a part of things in the baseball front office. Don't be fooled, the Yankees will spend money that will shock people all over again to probably numbers will even be a surprise in today's baseball when it comes to contracts. I'll just shrug my shoulders and say, well the Yankees are back I guess. Everyone has been saying that since then. I'll wait until it happens. The Yankees are one of the most valuable franchises in all of sports. You won't wait long. 1-2 years max.
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Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 14:41:55 GMT -5
Everyone has been saying that since then. I'll wait until it happens. The Yankees are one of the most valuable franchises in all of sports. You won't wait long. 1-2 years max. It was the same argument when there was no chance in hell that we were signing Moncada.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 21:34:19 GMT -5
The Yankees are one of the most valuable franchises in all of sports. You won't wait long. 1-2 years max. It was the same argument when there was no chance in hell that we were signing Moncada. The Yankees didn't want to spend that much on a unknown quantity. They spent 150+ million for Tanaka who was a more known quantity. The Yankees spend on star power. They always have and will.
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Post by ryan24 on May 30, 2017 7:11:25 GMT -5
250 to 400 million WOW that is one whale of a lot of money. Who is really worth it? You look at the big 5 harper, manny, clay, Donaldson, and keuchel. How many teams will even go after them? Yanks and the dodgers are in excellent shape moneywise. The cubs and the sox are in for maybe one. Washington is in poor shape but probably will look at one. The dodgers have the money and probably offer clay a big contract before he gets to FA. The money will be there he likes the west coast and the national league. Donaldson has a history of injuries. The jays probably will make a run to sign him before he get's to FA. Wash and the cubs have young players at the position. The sox are looking at devers for now. Subject to change. The dodgers maybe and the yanks, torres, maybe. Harper and manny are next. Manny probably stays at 3rd. For now that leaves the sox, wash, and the cubs in the same spot, FOR NOW, as with Donaldson. For the Yankees I think it depends on what they do with didi, castro, mateo and torres. Right now the yanks do not need a splash they are riding the wave to compete for the title and fill the seats with the young group they have. They definitely need starting pitching. I think the same reasoning can be used with harper. The yanks have judge and hicks along with 3 very promising prospects in the system. Injuries and attitude could have a huge impact for harper and how much he gets for how long. I bet that wash will offer a big contract to start and slow the process down. I think the hot prospect will be keuchel, assuming he is still pitching the way he has the last few years. All 5 teams can always use starting pitching, especially the yanks. Then this logic all goes out the window because of trades, injuries, and owner's ego's. Do devers and torres continue to develop? What decline happens for these players ? Does the economy allow the owners to pay at these levels? Wow I remember living in the philly area and the uproar that the fans had when the phils paid rose 800 a year.
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Post by jimed14 on May 30, 2017 7:46:16 GMT -5
It was the same argument when there was no chance in hell that we were signing Moncada. The Yankees didn't want to spend that much on a unknown quantity. They spent 150+ million for Tanaka who was a more known quantity. The Yankees spend on star power. They always have and will. So do a lot of teams, including the Red Sox. We will see.
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Post by mredsox89 on May 30, 2017 8:50:11 GMT -5
Many more teams have plenty of money now vs. even 5 years ago. I'm not saying the Yankees won't go commit $1.5B to 4-5 guys, but the Nationals have the $ if they want to keep Harper, the Orioles keeping Machado may be pushing it, but there are also multiple teams who can break the bank on Otani. I can't possibly see the Sox going after Harper or Machado, but if they're not overly concerned with the luxury tax limit, they're not really in that bad of a spot. As long as they stay under this year, which they probably will, they should be ok
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on May 30, 2017 9:53:31 GMT -5
I can't see the Phillies not being a major player here. They only have like 7 million in guaranteed commitments next year. They have in the past spent 200 million plus on payroll. They have a very solid fan base. No way their fans will be okay with the team not making a major push for at least one of the players already mentioned, especially when they have the money to do it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 30, 2017 14:51:46 GMT -5
Many more teams have plenty of money now vs. even 5 years ago. I'm not saying the Yankees won't go commit $1.5B to 4-5 guys, but the Nationals have the $ if they want to keep Harper, the Orioles keeping Machado may be pushing it, but there are also multiple teams who can break the bank on Otani. I can't possibly see the Sox going after Harper or Machado, but if they're not overly concerned with the luxury tax limit, they're not really in that bad of a spot. As long as they stay under this year, which they probably will, they should be ok Otani is only getting around 5 million maximum due to the international minor league free agency rules.
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Post by Guidas on May 30, 2017 15:56:11 GMT -5
Harper and Machado will be 26, which is really intriguing for both. In the years that Machado has played a full, healthy season he has been a +6 fWAR performer, although this year seems to be an outlier so far on that count (unless he's hiding an injury). His WAR would also likely increase if he moved back to SS, a position he reportedly played better than third (he was pressed into service because of injury at third and the Orioles kept him there because of...JJ Hardy). Harper has averaged above 4 fWAR in his MLB years, and that would likely go up if he moved to LF where his defense would be even better for the position. He is exceeding that projection this year and, if he stays healthy, will likely be more than a 5 fWAR player.
Both are Scott Boras clients. So, I think with the insane Stanton contract being a marker, we're looking at a minimum of 10 year contracts for each.
Theoretically, if a GM wanted to roll the dice, the team could offer 10 years at $35-40M a year for Machado and $30-35M a year for Harper with an opt-out after 4 years (and pray the player exercises it). You get 4 years at top dollar and (hopefully) top performance, gambling on health and Scott Boras wanting another bite at the apple. Both players would be young enough - and, if their health remains intact, good enough - to enter back into free agency in their age 30 winters, getting a second chance at even bigger, more lucrative contracts, given that the free agent market gets more ridiculous every year. If there is a health issue then the organization is stuck with a massive sunk cost, which is the gamble, but within 4 years the GM may be gone anyway if the team doesn't win, and, if it's the Sox or Yankees, the current ownership group may have sold its stake. Still, more teams seem to be taking such gambles with the opt outs, and with the DH in the AL the decline years for Harper and Machado would be mitigated if they decided to stay and remained relatively healthy.
Given that these are both position players, true superstars, and young, if I was a GM and got the go ahead from my GM, I'd try to grab one (prob Machado, though I love Harper) with the opt-out after 4 years and roll the dice. If it was Boston and Machado, you could trade Xander in his walk year for a prime prospect in a position of need (this is assuming Devers is up and can handle MLB). If it was Harper it's a much easier solution as they would likely trade my binky, JBJ. If they decided to go all in and extend Betts and or Xander, and moved Panda out at .50 on the dollar (or less) the Harper acquisition would give them a positional core of Harper, Mookie, Benintendi, Xander, and Devers.
This will never happen, of course, but had to throw it out there.
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