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Tanner Houck, RHP, University of Missouri (24th Pick)
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 12, 2017 22:46:50 GMT -5
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Post by Costigan on Jun 12, 2017 23:00:54 GMT -5
Really hard to be upset with this pick. Can't wait to see him pitch.
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 12, 2017 23:12:19 GMT -5
Any idea how many innings he got this year?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2017 23:21:17 GMT -5
Any idea how many innings he got this year? 94 2/3. So I'd expect, if all goes well, that he'll be assigned to Lowell and get 35 or so. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 12, 2017 23:24:40 GMT -5
Carson Smith 2.0 (minus the slider), Welcome to the Sox.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 12, 2017 23:35:34 GMT -5
Here are Houck's stats across his 3 years at Missouri. He was pretty damn consistent statistically speaking in that time. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2017 23:53:09 GMT -5
A few years back, Eric Van did what I thought was his most useful and interesting analysis that he did during his time posting here consistently, looking to see if there was a type of pitcher who was consistently undervalued. I'd often criticized Eric for a lot of his studies showing survivorship bias, but the nature of this study was the survivorship itself, so I found it really useful. Anyhow, if there was one type of pitcher who got consistently underrated, it was sinkerballers who generated a ton of groundballs. Because grounders are more likely to turn into hits the lower someone is in the minors, the more likely it is that those grounders are going to turn into hits. So you'd get these sinkerball pitchers like Brandon Webb and Doug Fister who were putting up mediocre ERAs in the minors despite otherwise strong peripherals, and really not getting any prospect recognition.
Anyway, Houck seems to fit this sort of profile. Now, this study can be misleading - it doesn't mean that guys who induce grounders are better than you expect, but rather that if there's a guy who turned out better than you expect there is a good chance he's getting a bunch of grounders. Houck has very good control, and misses a good amount of bats (not a ton, but one per inning so certainly enough), and kept the ball in the park. Yet he put up a 3.33 ERA, which seems way out of line with the rest of his line the quality of his sinking fastball. I think he'll put up ERAs in the 3's on his way up and some higher WHIPs than you'd like, but he's someone I'll be much more interested in paying attention to the groundball rate, K rate, and walk rate. If he does those, the groundballs will start getting scooped as he moves up.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 13, 2017 1:16:21 GMT -5
Houck reminds me a ton of Mike Shawaryn. 3/4 arm slot, best pitch is sinking fastball, throws a slider and change up. Both put up similar numbers in College. Both had one standout year, Houck as freshman and Shawaryn as a sophomore. Both seen as future relievers due to deliever and a change up that needs a lot of work. Houck seems to have a better fastball, who has the better slider and change up?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2017 4:07:09 GMT -5
I'm going to put some videos of this kid-
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2017 4:08:16 GMT -5
Kid is the size of a horse-
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2017 4:21:27 GMT -5
Last one, you can see why his breaking ball is inconsistent at 1:50 minutes into this video but he also shows flash on the breaking ball throughout the course of this video-
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Post by giatree12 on Jun 13, 2017 5:05:04 GMT -5
He has that look in his eyes that seems as if he won't let anything get him off his game..sorta like Sale.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 13, 2017 5:06:16 GMT -5
He has that look in his eyes that seems as if he won't let anything get him off his game..sorta like Sale. The anti-Allen Webster |
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 13, 2017 5:39:56 GMT -5
I don't think this was posted yet: By Keith Law: 37. Tanner Houck, RHP School: Missouri Houck will show a plus fastball and slider but not consistently, and he has a reliever’s delivery without a third pitch, so the odds are he ends up in the bullpen. And FWIW, he was worked hard this year. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-workloads-of-2017s-top-draft-prospects/ |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2017 6:15:38 GMT -5
It's easy to see why scouts are so conflicted on Houck. You look at his body and frame and think instantly that this kid could easily handle 200 innings a year.
Then you actually look at his arsenal of pitches and think that this guy really only has one plus pitch at the moment and another average pitch that can get better. With only two pitches, it's easy to see why others see reliever.
Hopefully he's Justin Masterson and does both.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 13, 2017 6:51:13 GMT -5
I'm an optimist for sure, but I really like what I've seen in the videos above. Great pitcher body. Mid-90's. Even his slider showed potential. Let's see what professional coaching can do for this young man. I always take what Law says with a grain of salt, and O'Dowd is just reading off a cue card. Physically he looks like someone who can go deep into games. It was my thought last night watching things unfold, that there were not many options at #24 that were outstanding. This kid, in my option, easily has the upside of a #3 with him getting the opportunity to develop his secondaries.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 13, 2017 11:58:23 GMT -5
This pick is interesting.
It's always seemed that the Sox look for pitchers who are very much differentiated as starters. Over-the-top guys, who have the outline of 4-pitch mix, even if it's rough around the edges. Houck doesn't fit that mold at all.
The Sox have always been very inflexible about moving stalled starters to relief, or starting players in the bullpen. This year we've seen some more aggressive moves to the pen than usual (Buttrey, Callahan).
I wonder if the additions of Houck (and to a lesser extent, Shawaryn) are hints at a bigger change in philosophy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 13, 2017 12:25:24 GMT -5
This pick is interesting. It's always seemed that the Sox look for pitchers who are very much differentiated as starters. Over-the-top guys, who have the outline of 4-pitch mix, even if it's rough around the edges. Houck doesn't fit that mold at all. The Sox have always been very inflexible about moving stalled starters to relief, or starting players in the bullpen. This year we've seen some more aggressive moves to the pen than usual (Buttrey, Callahan). I wonder if the additions of Houck (and to a lesser extent, Shawaryn) are hints at a bigger change in philosophy. For what it's worth the flexibility of moving guys to relief has been a year or two going now. They started showing that flexibility with guys like Callahan in 2015, Buttrey and Cosart last year. I also recall having a similar thought when they let Shepherd stay in the bullpen out of college - he's a guy they'd have developed as a starter in the past, I feel like. Also don't know if I agree with the assessment re: starters. Yes, it's rare they take one in the first round, but how many late first-round picks have they used on pitchers? Even going back to the last few, the book on Kopech was that he might need to move to the bullpen, and the same was true of a number of guys they've taken in the third and fourth rounds like Cosart, Myles Smith, and Maddox. Frankly, with pretty much any pitcher, you could say at the time they're drafted something like "he needs to do X, Y, and Z, otherwise he's a reliever." |
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 13, 2017 12:43:37 GMT -5
For what it's worth the flexibility of moving guys to relief has been a year or two going now. They started showing that flexibility with guys like Callahan in 2015, Buttrey and Cosart last year. I also recall having a similar thought when they let Shepherd stay in the bullpen out of college - he's a guy they'd have developed as a starter in the past, I feel like. Yeah, I had Buttrey and Callahan in mind as part of the big picture shift in philosophy. Seems like they haven't always been as quick to move those players to the pen and challenge them there. Also don't know if I agree with the assessment re: starters. Yes, it's rare they take one in the first round, but how many late first-round picks have they used on pitchers? Even going back to the last few, the book on Kopech was that he might need to move to the bullpen, and the same was true of a number of guys they've taken in the third and fourth rounds like Cosart, Myles Smith, and Maddox. Frankly, with pretty much any pitcher, you could say at the time they're drafted something like "he needs to do X, Y, and Z, otherwise he's a reliever." I guess what I'm getting at, is it seems to me like they're taking on a different Y and Z to develop than they have in the past. Higher effort, more one-dimensional arms. |
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Post by bnich on Jun 14, 2017 6:39:19 GMT -5
This pick is interesting. It's always seemed that the Sox look for pitchers who are very much differentiated as starters. Over-the-top guys, who have the outline of 4-pitch mix, even if it's rough around the edges. Houck doesn't fit that mold at all. The Sox have always been very inflexible about moving stalled starters to relief, or starting players in the bullpen. This year we've seen some more aggressive moves to the pen than usual (Buttrey, Callahan). I wonder if the additions of Houck (and to a lesser extent, Shawaryn) are hints at a bigger change in philosophy. Speaking on a change in philosophy. We have seen a lot in the past drafting guys as you said with a four pitch mix, think Anderson, Johnson. While reading up on some of the newest draftees, I saw a tweet that all pitchers selected so far have a fastball rated 60 or better with inconsistent secondaries. They have a chance to stay starters but at the very least should be able to play up out of the pen because of the plus fastball. I think the idea is obvious, to hit on as many picks as possible. With guys that have plus fastballs the chance they can still pitch out of the pen if not as a SP is greater IMO. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2017 7:19:27 GMT -5
I don't know that it's a huge change. Johnson was something of an outlier in the 2012 draft which also had Light, Callahan, and Buttrey. And Kopech is sort of the ultimate fastball-first draft pick. Drafting tall guys (though Kopech isn't) with big fastballs has been the organizational philosophy for awhile. The 2016 draft was a bit of a move toward more polished guys who move quickly in Anderson, Shawaryn, and Nogosek.
And, for what it's worth, one of the reasons Houck has such upside is that his secondaries have all shown something, he's just never developed the consistency with him.
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