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Post by James Dunne on Jun 14, 2017 7:51:54 GMT -5
6/14 Red Sox (LHP Brian Johnson 2-0, 3.44, 18.1 IP, 16K:4BB) @ Phillies (RHP Jeremy Hellickson 5-4, 4.50, 72.0 IP, 33K:20BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 6/15 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale 8-2, 2.97, 91.0 IP, 126K:17BB) @ Phillies (RHP Nick Pivetta 1-3, 5.52, 29.1 IP, 27K:16BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,195
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Post by radiohix on Jun 14, 2017 7:54:57 GMT -5
I hope BJ takes Hellickson deep.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2017 10:02:35 GMT -5
I hope BJ takes Hellickson deep. For those who've forgotten or don't know, was NCAA two-way player of the year as a junior. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 14, 2017 16:08:42 GMT -5
So, how good has the Sox setup relief been? Rankings of the entire pen are a bit biased ...
(No, you won't be seeing that much more of me ... I'm in bed after minor surgery and I was curious ...)
(I counted Chapman and Britton as closers and Betances and Brach as setup guys. Ditto with the guys who lost their jobs--Neftali Feliz and Francisco Rodriguez are closers and Corey Knebel and Justin Wilson are setup guys. IOW, it's an assessment of the initial roster. If I'm missing any other closer changes, let me know.)
The Sox rank:
28th in setup IP
11th in xFIP
4th in ERA
4th in ERA - xFIP
5th in WPA/IP
3rd in WPA adjusted for LI / IP.
28th in setup leverage management (WPA - LI-adjusted WPA, per IP)
The setup staff appears to be rocking some combination of low BABIP, low HR/FB, and clutch pitching (the spreadsheet I threw together doesn't have the right data to go deeper there). OTOH, The Sox are one of just three teams with an inverse correlation between setup reliever WPA (adjusted for LI) and LI.
It's arguable that the mild backwards correlation of setup quality to setup leverage-use is a function of instead matching pitchers to the right hitters. Which is to say, you can't bury Farrell for the former without knowing how much of the ERA - xFIP difference he's responsible for. Among the 30 teams, there is a tendency (r = .29, p = .12) for ERA - xFIP to be opposite setup leverage management, so I think this may be a legit tradeoff.
Now, the big question, the one that motivated this study, is of course: where would they rank without Tyler Thornburg?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 14, 2017 16:19:10 GMT -5
As we get ready for the game, something interesting to note - just looking at latest WAR - Mookie has zoomed to 4th at 2.9 (Judge at 4.1, Trout at 3.4, Dickerson at 3.0). And he's not really caught fire - at least with consistency - yet. JBJ is in a big tie - 7 at 2.0, currently listed as 19th on ESPN.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2017 17:20:17 GMT -5
Hanley in at first base for 2nd time all season....
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2017 17:26:30 GMT -5
Game 2 of the series should be a lock for a win.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2017 17:40:08 GMT -5
Devin Marrero optioned to Pawtucket. Hector Velazquez recalled before today's game. Bullpen needed a arm.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Jun 14, 2017 18:41:42 GMT -5
Xander!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2017 18:42:14 GMT -5
There's not a better hitter with 2 strikes than Xander.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 14, 2017 18:44:43 GMT -5
this is looking good!!!
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Post by Guidas on Jun 14, 2017 18:50:55 GMT -5
I was at Nava's first game when he hit the granny vs. the Phillies. Always liked him.
I also believe there sould be a country song titled "The day Farrell ran Daniel Nava out of town."
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 14, 2017 18:50:59 GMT -5
I know it's the Phils but Brian Johnson can pitch. I wonder if teams call about his availability.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 14, 2017 18:52:35 GMT -5
I was at Nava's first game when he hit the granny vs. the Phillies. Always liked him. I also believe there sould be a country song titled "The day Farrell ran Daniel Nava out of town." I am sure if you wanted to get creative it would fit well with The night they drove old Dixie down. i.e. Danial Nava's my name and I served on the Pawtucket Train Till Farrell the manager came And tore up my stats again etc..etc... |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 14, 2017 19:02:00 GMT -5
I'm ready to say Brian Johnson should be a pinch hitter.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jun 14, 2017 19:04:39 GMT -5
I was at Nava's first game when he hit the granny vs. the Phillies. Always liked him. I also believe there sould be a country song titled "The day Farrell ran Daniel Nava out of town." When you get the chance to play Jonny Bromes as much as you can, you just can't pass that up. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2017 19:18:15 GMT -5
Now Johnson is out with a apparent injury after getting hit hard from the last 2 hitters.
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Post by p23w on Jun 14, 2017 19:19:46 GMT -5
I know it's the Phils but Brian Johnson can pitch. I wonder if teams call about his availability. Okay Pray tell who is going to call for a guy who can't get through the Phillies line up, second time around?. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 14, 2017 19:24:33 GMT -5
I know it's the Phils but Brian Johnson can pitch. I wonder if teams call about his availability. Okay Pray tell who is going to call for a guy who can't get through the Phillies line up, second time around?. he has limited velocity and has to do it with guile. I said he can pitch.....that's my story and I am sticking to it.  |
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Post by marrcus on Jun 14, 2017 19:25:13 GMT -5
Trouble on the way (Valasquez). Going to need more runs and Farrell's got to manage the pen for another 5 innings. Not Good.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 14, 2017 19:27:53 GMT -5
Trouble on the way (Valasquez). Going to need more runs and Farrell's got to manage the pen for another 5 innings. Not Good. Seriously? Velazquez has been every bit as good as BJ in Pawtucket. !st opportunity wasn't as good as planned, but BJ has had opportunities that he hasn't seized either. No reason to expect HV shouldn't be reasonably effective - or at least as effective as BJ. |
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Post by bluechip on Jun 14, 2017 19:43:19 GMT -5
Xander certainly makes some real flashy plays at short.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 14, 2017 19:50:40 GMT -5
Left shoulder discomfort for Brian Johnson.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 14, 2017 19:57:21 GMT -5
Left shoulder discomfort for Brian Johnson. Ouch! Very sad. I thought the kid was starting to learn how to pitch at the major league level. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 14, 2017 20:17:14 GMT -5
Left shoulder discomfort for Brian Johnson. Ouch! Very sad. I thought the kid was starting to learn how to pitch at the major league level. It seems that if Brian didn't have bad luck...he'd have no luck at all. Feel bad for the guy. |
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