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6/15 Gameday Thread: Winner in Greenville takes 1st place
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2017 10:23:47 GMT -5
It's not like Castillo will never play in MLB again. But for luxury tax concerns, he'd probably have been called up this year already (in place of Selsky), and there's a good chance that he's the MLB fourth outfielder as soon as next year. Do you think? 18:$11M, 19:$11M, 20:$13.5M is an awful lot for a 4th outfielder. I guess in theory that's less than the Young-Moreland-Abad contracts that come off the books next year, and if you figure you replace those three with Rusney-Travis-minimumsalaryRP, then it's a wash, but the commitment for three years is tough. That said, if he sucks, you outright him again, right? I think he could definitely replace Young and be a lot more versatile. Mookie probably could use a day off a month too. He's OPS'ing .938 vs. LHP this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2017 11:04:02 GMT -5
Do you think? 18:$11M, 19:$11M, 20:$13.5M is an awful lot for a 4th outfielder. I guess in theory that's less than the Young-Moreland-Abad contracts that come off the books next year, and if you figure you replace those three with Rusney-Travis-minimumsalaryRP, then it's a wash, but the commitment for three years is tough. That said, if he sucks, you outright him again, right? I think he could definitely replace Young and be a lot more versatile. Mookie probably could use a day off a month too. He's OPS'ing .938 vs. LHP this year. Well, again, this has nothing to do with talent. It has to do with committing $10.36 AAV to your 4th outfielder. By the way, I'd completely forgotten how they gamed the AAV in the contract a bit with that $0.1M in the first year. This easily could've been even worse as a 6/$72.4M deal. $12.07M AAV.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2017 11:06:54 GMT -5
I think he could definitely replace Young and be a lot more versatile. Mookie probably could use a day off a month too. He's OPS'ing .938 vs. LHP this year. Well, again, this has nothing to do with talent. It has to do with committing $10.36 AAV to your 4th outfielder. I get it, but if they go past the luxury tax threshold, that shouldn't be a huge deal since they're paying him anyway. Would they be able to get a 4th OF for $2.6M that would be the extra money paid for luxury taxes?
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Post by Coreno on Jun 16, 2017 11:52:47 GMT -5
I wonder if it would be possible to restructure that deal. You cant take that 40M or so away from him, but maybe you could rework the money into some weird Bobby Bonilla type deferment situation where he's getting checks into his 50s, making his yearly figure much more palatable for a backup OF, giving him a better chance to stick in the majors. He turns 30 in less than a month, the longer he's banished to outright assignment purgatory, the lower his chances of ever having a major league career. I mean he's already made his lifetime's worth of money probably, so maybe he doesn't care, but most guys have more pride and passion for the game than that.
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Post by rafael on Jun 16, 2017 12:18:34 GMT -5
Let's say Castillo is added to the 40-man roster right now and is kept there until the end of the season. For luxury tax considerations, his full AAV would be considered or just the pro-rated amount?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2017 12:21:29 GMT -5
Let's say Castillo is added to the 40-man roster right now and is kept there until the end of the season. For luxury tax considerations, his full AAV would be considered or just the pro-rated amount? It's pro-rated for days he's on the 40-man.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2017 14:17:19 GMT -5
It's not like Castillo will never play in MLB again. But for luxury tax concerns, he'd probably have been called up this year already (in place of Selsky), and there's a good chance that he's the MLB fourth outfielder as soon as next year. Do you think? 18:$11M, 19:$11M, 20:$13.5M is an awful lot for a 4th outfielder. I guess in theory that's less than the Young-Moreland-Abad contracts that come off the books next year, and if you figure you replace those three with Rusney-Travis-minimumsalaryRP, then it's a wash, but the commitment for three years is tough. That said, if he sucks, you outright him again, right? Castillo gets paid his contract either way. It's a sunk cost. The marginal cost of bringing him up to MLB is the extra luxury tax payment involved, which, assuming they duck under the threshold this year, is 17.5% starting next year. That's in the ballpark of $2M a year, which seems more than worth it to me. EDIT: or what jimed said above.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2017 14:35:33 GMT -5
Hm. I guess so. So if the point is just to get under this year to reset the penalties, rather than saying as a general rule the club would like to stay under it, that makes sense.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2017 15:18:15 GMT -5
On the topic of Rusney Castillo, when he first signed, he was a guy who hit a ton of ground balls but who hit essentially zero infield fly balls. That's why I've always been bullish on his ability to hit for average but bearish on his ability to tap into his raw power. But, over the past few years, and especially this year, his batted ball profile has changed a noticeable amount. To wit:
GB% FB% IFFB% 2015 AAA (172 PAs) 58.7% 26.2% 6.1% 2015 MLB (289 PAs) 63.5% 23.3% 2.0% 2016 AAA (429 PAs) 52.5% 28.6% 0.0% (!) 2017 AAA (229 PAs) 47.0% 34.1% 7.9%
Something to watch.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 16, 2017 16:31:55 GMT -5
On the topic of Rusney Castillo, when he first signed, he was a guy who hit a ton of ground balls but who hit essentially zero infield fly balls. That's why I've always been bullish on his ability to hit for average but bearish on his ability to tap into his raw power. But, over the past few years, and especially this year, his batted ball profile has changed a noticeable amount. To wit: GB% FB% IFFB% 2015 AAA (172 PAs) 58.7% 26.2% 6.1% 2015 MLB (289 PAs) 63.5% 23.3% 2.0% 2016 AAA (429 PAs) 52.5% 28.6% 0.0% (!) 2017 AAA (229 PAs) 47.0% 34.1% 7.9%
Something to watch. I found that part in Brian MacPherson's article very interesting
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