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The "blow up the draft cap" theory
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 21, 2019 13:26:53 GMT -5
I really think a lot of players just want to go to college. Going to college is not always about improving their signing bonus and therefore not always about money. If that were true, before there were draft slotting and caps, no one would have gone to college. How many high school or even College guys have turned down 2-3 million? Like it's happened, but not many will turn that down. You can always go back to College after if it doesn't workout and have a ton of money. Million dollars in a bank account at 5% interest is $50,000 a year for the rest of your life! Can you tip me off as to what bank you're using? I really want my money to sit around making 5%. And don't tell me they're in Nevis, Mautitius, or The Isle of Man.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 21, 2019 13:38:25 GMT -5
How many high school or even College guys have turned down 2-3 million? Like it's happened, but not many will turn that down. You can always go back to College after if it doesn't workout and have a ton of money. Million dollars in a bank account at 5% interest is $50,000 a year for the rest of your life! Can you tip me off as to what bank you're using? I really want my money to sit around making 5%. And don't tell me they're in Nevis, Mautitius, or The Isle of Man. You got a million plus dollars? That's the only way your getting crazy high rates. Search around, you'll find a bank that needs to increase it's cash flow due to lending limits and negotiate. I've seen higher frankly. Heck 10 plus years ago when I worked at a branch, the manager could negotiate rates for anything over $10,000. People with a lot of money don't get the printed low rates you see in Banks, those are just for your normal everyday folks with a small amount of money or they have no clue Banks negotiate on large sums. The smart people shop around. It's easier for Banks to do that, then sell off loans if their cash flows get too low.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 21, 2019 21:15:24 GMT -5
Done. But I forgot the overage tax, so we’re talking probably $100M low end and possibly more like $150-$180M. Still, it’s a LOT of talent. Telson! Did you see my earlier posts? . Admittedly, they're on the TLDR side so here's the cliff notes version: I basically did the same thing you did using MLB's rankings to come up with a hypothetical 2019 draft from Rounds 1-20. I think it looks pretty similar to yours except maybe some differences in the later rounds that could be interesting to compare in a couple years to see if MLB or FG did better in that range. I also did the same thing for the 2018 draft and the 2017 draft. The 2017 draft in particular is interesting because we're far enough away from that draft to begin seeing some results. In short, that hypothetical draft has already produced two 2019 first round picks, two other guys paid like first round/sandwich round picks, and is currently projected (a lot can change) to produce three more first round picks in 2020. Lol, no, of course I missed it by like, 2 posts cuz I got way to curious and excited to find out. 🤣🤣. I’ll have to check ‘em out...you apparently did more work than me!!!
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Post by telson13 on Jun 21, 2019 21:27:16 GMT -5
Interesting thread and I am not a believer in the viability of this plan for various reasons and I think they can spend the money in other ways with out risking the wrath of the league. 1) Redsox has an issue for not being able to develop draft picks well. Could the money be spent on addressing those by getting better coaches and methods? Why dont they get the top coaches? Could it be economics? Could it be more difficult than we believe? 2) Teams like Houston went from floor to the top not just by picking at the top of the draft. They probably had a better scouting operation and better talent evaluaters or better decision makers at the helm. They could spend that money there and do it the right way. Why dont every team do this? 3) Draft picks picked in first round flame routinely because there is much more to why they become a productive player in MLB than just talent. 4) MLB is a group of 30 rich guys (certain level of ego comes with being rich) collectively agree on a group of people to run the league. Some of those owners have varying degrees of interest/influence on the league management. Assuming they will look away when one of them is trying to get a leg up by exploiting the rules is not reasonable. They can find ways (unpublished in the rule book) to punish the offending team with out recourse or just blackball the team. Your first point is wicked wrong, though. The Sox are the best-drafting team in baseball since 2000, and it’s not even remotely close ( blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-teams-have-drafted-in-this-millennium/ ). I’ve read elsewhere they rank second behind St Louis in developmet, but i don’t have a link. They *have* had relative difficulty developing pitchers, but their position player success is stupidly good.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 21, 2019 21:30:25 GMT -5
How many high school or even College guys have turned down 2-3 million? Like it's happened, but not many will turn that down. You can always go back to College after if it doesn't workout and have a ton of money. Million dollars in a bank account at 5% interest is $50,000 a year for the rest of your life! Can you tip me off as to what bank you're using? I really want my money to sit around making 5%. And don't tell me they're in Nevis, Mautitius, or The Isle of Man. I once had a CD during the ‘80s inflation foolishness that was at 14.6%. FOR A FIVE-YEAR CD 🤣🤣🤣. In fairness, one could diversify and very reasonably make 5%, probably more like 10%. But yeah, not with the security of a bank account.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 21, 2019 21:32:46 GMT -5
We have our target, the 2020 draft, best in like ten years. Make a splash! Seriously. The FG guys have mentioned huge buzz among scouts, saying basically this. Depth-wise, especially HS, it’s supposed to be absolutely ridiculous. PERFECT time to do it.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,722
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Post by mobaz on Jun 24, 2019 7:38:06 GMT -5
We have our target, the 2020 draft, best in like ten years. Make a splash! Seriously. The FG guys have mentioned huge buzz among scouts, saying basically this. Depth-wise, especially HS, it’s supposed to be absolutely ridiculous. PERFECT time to do it. So what if two teams decide to do it? Or three? Now we're adding to the game theory portion of the discussion.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 26, 2019 22:13:03 GMT -5
Seriously. The FG guys have mentioned huge buzz among scouts, saying basically this. Depth-wise, especially HS, it’s supposed to be absolutely ridiculous. PERFECT time to do it. So what if two teams decide to do it? Or three? Now we're adding to the game theory portion of the discussion. Now THAT would be fascinating. And certainly, if teams see another doing it, after 4-5 rounds, they might hop on the bus figuring the hammer won’t come down as hard.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2021 12:11:16 GMT -5
Yes, I remain committed to this thread! Posting below the blow-up-the-draft approach from 2018 which now includes a number of draft picks. As a reminder, these drafts were created by taking MLB's best player available in each round and assuming we'd find a number at which they would sign. If a team were to do this in reality, there would be better ways to do this...in fact, you might have been able to get multiple 2018 1st rounders to fall to your picks in say rounds 2-6 by lining up ~$3M deals before going down to a ~$1M-$2M dollar range. Also, its likely that a MLB's scouting resources lead to a better board than MLB.com, no disrespect to Callis, Mayo, etc. Regardless its fun to see. This draft in particular would have yielded: 4 1st-round/CBA picks: McClanahan/Casas, Kumar Rocker, Slade Cecconi, Ty Madden 2 2nd round/CBB picks: Jaden Hill, Isaiah Campbell 3 3rd round picks: Cole Wilcox (paid like a $3.3M 1st rounder though), Zach Watson (1st pick of 2019 3rd round), Landon Marceaux 1 7th round pick: Zack Hess 1 9th round pick: Chandler Champlain + Northcut and perhaps most importantly, Owen Sharts Sorry I don't mean to distract from other draft conversation, but if anyone here is curious as to what our draft would have looked like if we selected MLB's BPA at each of our picks in Rounds 1-20, I put that together: 1 (26). Shane McClanahan (14) – LHP – South Florida.....or.....Triston Casas (20) – 1B – American Heritage HS, Committed to Miami 2 (64). Cole Wilcox (19) – RHP – Heritage HS (GA), Committed to Georgia 3 (100). Kumar Rocker (23) – RHP – North Oconee HS (GA), Committed to Vanderbilt 4 (130). Nander De Sedas (55) – SS – Montverde Academy (FL), Committed to Florida St. 5 (160). Slade Cecconi (63) – RHP – Trinity Prep School (FLO) Committed to Miami 6 (190). Zach Watson (65) – CF – LSU (Sophomore) 7 (220). Jaden Hill (78) – RHP – Ashdown Sr HS (AR), Committed to LSU 8 (250). Nicholas Northcut (81) – 3B – William Mason HS (OH), Committed to Vanderbilt 9 (280). Zack Hess (91) – RHP – LSU (Sophomore) 10 (310). Brett Hansen (94) – LHP – Foothill HS (CA), Committed to Vanderbilt 11 (340). Austin Becker (95) – RHP – Big Walnut HS (OH), Committed to Vanderbilt 12 (370). Garrett McDaniels (96) – LHP – Pee Dee Academy (SC), Committed to Coastal Carolina 13 (400). Garrett Wade (100) – LHP – Hartselle HS (AL), Committed to Auburn 14 (430). Kameron Guangorena (104) – C – S. John Bosco HS (CA), Committed to Cal State Fullerton 15 (460). Isaiah Campbell (109) – RHP – Arkansas U. 16 (490). Landon Marceaux (117) – RHP – Destrehan HS (LA), Committed to LSU 17 (520). Owen Sharts (119) – RHP – Simi Valley HS (CA), Committed to Nevada 18 (550). Chandler Champlain (120) – RHP – Santa Margarita HS (CA), Committed to USC 19 (580). Kerry Wright (121) – RHP – Monteverde Academy (FL), Committed to Louisville 20 (610). Ty Madden (122) – RHP – Cypress Ranch HS (TX), Committed to Texas HS pitchers are the most likely prospects to drop in the draft (I'd imagine due to both signing demands and volatility), therefore you end up with a draft that is unreasonably skewed toward this demographic.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 19, 2021 15:14:42 GMT -5
What would the cost have been for that draft ?? Cannon and Lugo?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2021 15:22:18 GMT -5
The penalty would be two 1st rounders, so Yorke would be part of that (which in turn translates to a slot pick replacing Blaze). We didn't have a 1st round pick in 2019, so I'm actually not sure if Cannon would qualify as penalty or if the 1st round penalty would roll over to a subsequent year. The other "cost" is simply how much it would cost to pull this off. We've estimated something like $80M: an average of $2M per each of 20 picks (although some might more be like 3-4$M others closer to $1M) with a 100% tax on those picks.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2022 11:02:35 GMT -5
You rang? 2017 here2018 here2019 hereI guess I stopped there with 2020 being the truncated draft and got lazy last year. Maybe I'll pick back up this year.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2022 11:10:54 GMT -5
You rang? 2017 here2018 here2019 hereI guess I stopped there with 2020 being the truncated draft and got lazy last year. Maybe I'll pick back up this year. That 2017 class would not be very good, though funny we did wind up with Drohan. the 2018 class wouldn't be all too deep but you'd have McClanahan (who you could've taken and then had a normal draft after anyway, so I guess it defeats the purpose) and Rocker. 2019 would've been interesting with Leiter, Barco, Lee, Jones, and Doughty, but most of those guys are just getting drafted now so hard to say if it'd be better or not yet.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2022 13:40:19 GMT -5
Right you have to basically ignore the first rounder. Maybe the second and third too.
It probably boils down to, is that all worth it to get Jackson Rutledge or HS Kumar Rocker (assuming he even signs)? Some of these guys just aren't going to sign unless you give them top 15 money. I guess we're blowing up the draft but you can't give every guy 5m.
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 19, 2022 17:06:31 GMT -5
Interesting thread and I am not a believer in the viability of this plan for various reasons and I think they can spend the money in other ways with out risking the wrath of the league. 1) Redsox has an issue for not being able to develop draft picks well. Could the money be spent on addressing those by getting better coaches and methods? Why dont they get the top coaches? Could it be economics? Could it be more difficult than we believe? 2) Teams like Houston went from floor to the top not just by picking at the top of the draft. They probably had a better scouting operation and better talent evaluaters or better decision makers at the helm. They could spend that money there and do it the right way. Why dont every team do this? 3) Draft picks picked in first round flame routinely because there is much more to why they become a productive player in MLB than just talent. 4) MLB is a group of 30 rich guys (certain level of ego comes with being rich) collectively agree on a group of people to run the league. Some of those owners have varying degrees of interest/influence on the league management. Assuming they will look away when one of them is trying to get a leg up by exploiting the rules is not reasonable. They can find ways (unpublished in the rule book) to punish the offending team with out recourse or just blackball the team. Your first point is wicked wrong, though. The Sox are the best-drafting team in baseball since 2000, and it’s not even remotely close ( blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-teams-have-drafted-in-this-millennium/ ). I’ve read elsewhere they rank second behind St Louis in developmet, but i don’t have a link. They *have* had relative difficulty developing pitchers, but their position player success is stupidly good. That's a really interesting take/article that definitely makes me rethink this years draft quite a bit also. THANK YOU for the link and knowledge!! If you could find that link on the development I'ld love to read the article (seriously not a sarcastic response). Thanks again.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 19, 2022 20:34:40 GMT -5
This theory fascinates me. If they ever do this I would be all aboard. I still can’t believe we only have limited trading.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 17:48:59 GMT -5
Looks like I stopped doing this for the past couple of years. I could always pull something together retrospectively. In the meantime, this is what a hypothetical draft would look like from our 2023 draft positions if you went best player available according to the MLB Pipeline board. Feel free to swap Zanetello for Walker Martin in the 2nd round if you think we made the better call. MLB Pipeline rankings for each player are listed in parentheses:
1 (14). Kyle Teel (7) – C – University of Virginia 2 (50). Walker Martin (30) – SS – Eaton HS (CO), Committed to Arkansas 3 (83). Cameron Johnson (42) – LHP – IMG Academy (FL), Committed to LSU 4 (115). Roch Cholowsky (44) – SS – Hamilton HS (AZ), Committed to UCLA 4c (132). Cooper Pratt (45) – SS – Magnolia Heights HS (MS), Committed to Mississippi 4c (133). Jace Bohrofen (66) – OF – University of Arkansas 5 (151). Trent Caraway (70) – SS – Jserra Catholic HS (CA), Committed to Oregon State 6 (178). George Wolkow (71) – OF – Downers Grove North HS (IL), Committed to South Carolina 7 (208). Zane Adams (73) – LHP – Porter HS (TX) – Committed to Alabama 8 (238). Will Gasparino (75) – OF – Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) – Committed to Texas 9 (268). Tanner Witt (76) – RHP – University of Texas 10 (298). Caden Sorrell (79) – OF – Marcus HS (TX) – Committed to Texas A&M 11 (328). Joey Volchko (80) – RHP – Redwood HS (CA) – Committed to Stanford 12 (358). Liam Peterson (85) – RHP – Calvary Christian HS (FL) – Committed to Florida 13 (388). Jake Brown (93) – LHP – Sulphur HS (LA) – Committed to LSU 14 (418). Grant Gray (99) – OF – Norco HS (CA) – Committed to UCLA 15 (448). Drew Burress (104) – OF – Houston County HS (GA) – Committed to Georgia Tech 16 (478). Steven Milam (105) – SS – Cetennial HS (NM) – Committed to LSU 17 (508). Ethan McElvain (106) – LHP – Nolensville HS (TN) – Committed to Vanderbilt 18 (538). James Ellwanger (107) – RHP – Magnolia West H (TX) – Committed to Dallas Baptist 19 (568). Luke McNeillie (109) – RHP – Milton HS (GA) – Committed to Florida 20 (598). Dylan Cupp (111) – SS – Cedartown HS (GA) – Committed to Mississippi St.
Other undrafted or late round Top 200 HS players you could swap: Alex Sosa – C; Justin Lee – RHP; Parker Detmers – RHP; Wil Libbert – LHP; Colin Fisher – LHP; Hunter Dietz – LHP; Cam Kozeal – SS; Zion Rose – C; Gavin Grahovac – OF; Cameron Flukey – RHP; Cam Clayton – SS; Cal Fisher – SS; Campbell Smithwick – C; Gabe Gaeckle – RHP (drafted in Round 20); Chance Mako – RHP; Jacob Gholston (drafted in Round 17); Tate McGuire – RHP; Aidan Knaak RHP
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Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 17:53:35 GMT -5
...and also, I should add...those older drafts earlier in the thread aren't aging well. That said, I'm pretty convinced the Red Sox board with a BPA approach would do better than a board using MLB Pipeline rankings like the above. However, I still don't think the benefits outweigh the massive $ it would take to pull this off although its not my money.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 13, 2023 21:56:14 GMT -5
...and also, I should add...those older drafts earlier in the thread aren't aging well. That said, I'm pretty convinced the Red Sox board with a BPA approach would do better than a board using MLB Pipeline rankings like the above. However, I still don't think the benefits outweigh the massive $ it would take to pull this off although its not my money. Let's say you land three T100 prospects applying this approach, including one T20 guy. Wouldn't that justify the $80MM costs and loss of draft picks?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 22:02:32 GMT -5
...and also, I should add...those older drafts earlier in the thread aren't aging well. That said, I'm pretty convinced the Red Sox board with a BPA approach would do better than a board using MLB Pipeline rankings like the above. However, I still don't think the benefits outweigh the massive $ it would take to pull this off although its not my money. Let's say you land three T100 prospects applying this approach, including one T20 guy. Wouldn't that justify the $80MM costs and loss of draft picks? For a fan that doesn’t have to spend that money, sure. Not for someone running a business.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 13, 2023 22:06:26 GMT -5
Let's say you land three T100 prospects applying this approach, including one T20 guy. Wouldn't that justify the $80MM costs and loss of draft picks? For a fan that doesn’t have to spend that money, sure. Not for someone running a business. If you can't spend $80MM on an MLB draft, owning a baseball team shouldn't be for you. Considering the multiple years of the team control, you'd probably end up saving money under this strategy as well compared to paying 3 veterans $10MM per for 5 years.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2023 22:09:11 GMT -5
For a fan that doesn’t have to spend that money, sure. Not for someone running a business. If you can't spend $80MM on an MLB draft, owning a baseball team shouldn't be for you. Considering the multiple years of the team control, you'd probably end up saving money under this strategy as well compared to paying 3 veterans $10MM per for 5 years. But the problem is this is not the NBA or NFL where the drafted players have an immediate impact on the pro roster. Hell, Just because they were a top pick in the MLB draft does not really guarantee that they make the big leagues let alone become an all star.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 13, 2023 22:15:02 GMT -5
If you can't spend $80MM on an MLB draft, owning a baseball team shouldn't be for you. Considering the multiple years of the team control, you'd probably end up saving money under this strategy as well compared to paying 3 veterans $10MM per for 5 years. But the problem is this is not the NBA or NFL where the drafted players have an immediate impact on the pro roster. Hell, Just because they were a top pick in the MLB draft does not really guarantee that they make the big leagues let alone become an all star. Nope, but I'd bet good money though a T100 draft prospect has 25% of making the major leagues, a 10% chance of becoming a solid major leaguer, and a 5% chance of becoming an all star. Throw that into a calculator and you are probably coming out ahead on investment on average. This will be the next frontier of MLB draft strategies for front offices that can afford it. There is only so much high resolution pitching video you can watch on a specific trait before everyone in the industry picks up on the same thing.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2023 22:16:51 GMT -5
But the problem is this is not the NBA or NFL where the drafted players have an immediate impact on the pro roster. Hell, Just because they were a top pick in the MLB draft does not really guarantee that they make the big leagues let alone become an all star. Nope, but I'd bet good money though a T100 draft prospect has 25% of making the major leagues, a 10% chance of becoming a solid major leaguer, and a 5% chance of becoming an all star. Throw that into a calculator and you are probably coming out ahead on investment on average. This will be the next frontier of MLB draft strategies for front offices that can afford it. There is only so much high resolution pitching video you can watch on a specific trait before everyone in the industry picks up on the same thing. www.mlb.com/news/biggest-mlb-prospect-busts-this-decade
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 22:18:36 GMT -5
For a fan that doesn’t have to spend that money, sure. Not for someone running a business. If you can't spend $80MM on an MLB draft, owning a baseball team shouldn't be for you. Considering the multiple years of the team control, you'd probably end up saving money under this strategy as well compared to paying 3 veterans $10MM per for 5 years. How much money do you think MLB owners just have laying around? Very few could just throw out $80 million dollars like it’s nothing lol, an owner’s net worth is not the amount of liquid money they have. Also, they own the team to make money, blowing absurd amounts of money like that is the exact opposite of what they’re going to want to do when it isn’t competitively required (meaning you can field a good team without doing it. It’s a fun thing to say as a fan they should do, but anyone that takes a second to think about it or understands business (I work in Athletics finance, albeit a bit different of an operation) can pretty easily understand why it’s not realistic or even, really, possible.
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