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Post by amfox1 on Apr 30, 2013 15:48:36 GMT -5
Bump to combine threads.
EDIT: Let's hope today's outing (and last 2 of 3) will quell some of the early-season anxiety about Barnes.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2013 7:23:42 GMT -5
I've been harder on Barnes then just about anyone else. Preseason I questioned him being ranked ahead of Webster and De La Rosa since he hadn't had any success above A Ball and had less tan impressive secondary offerings. Wasn't just being a hater, they were huge red flags I felt were being overlooked.
He got off to rocky start this season, but has had a nice string of starts. Most importantly Speier is reporting that the change has coe a long ways. Not where it needs to be but the trajectory is there as are some accompanying results. If he can get that to be a legit weapon, then he could be special.
Nice to see progress, especially in May
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Post by njsox on May 22, 2013 19:46:24 GMT -5
Haven't gotten to watch Barnes firsthand, except for once, tjis year but he has let up more hits/solid contact than we expected. I think this has been attributed to a lack of fastball command as well as the changeup and curveball not playing early on. With that being said, I would love to see if Barnes can add a cutter to the mix. He has that very smooth delivery with easy heat. Not to say anyone could be Mariano Rivera, but his smooth, effortless mechanics to pump out 92-95 heat is reminiscent of Rivera. I think that is a great base to developing a solid cutter that will have a fastball look and get weak contact. Maybe he has tried a cutter or maybe you don't want to challenge by adding another pitch when he still needs a lot of work with his secondary offerings, but I really just have a gut feeling he could pull off adding a good, hard cutter. Maybe Workman can sell him on adding one.
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Post by hammerhead on May 23, 2013 8:17:35 GMT -5
I think that a lot of scouts expected there to be some transition time making the jump from Salem to Portland and I think that's what we saw/are seeing. It seems that he's settling in now. I think he will always be the kind of pitcher that's a workhorse innings eater, but does give up quite a few hits (like Andy Pettite or John Lackey not that his stuff resembles either). I think he's right on schedule for where a good prospect should be at this point. I think by the end of the year his numbers will look pretty good and it will be a solid season in terms of development.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 23, 2013 8:54:13 GMT -5
I think people will be a lot happier with Barnes and his development if we lowered the expectations. If we're expecting a dominant 1 or 2 starter, who can carry a rotation, we will probably be disappointed. It's possible, but unlikely. However, its fairly likely, he's going to be a good major league starter who can be hugely valuable to a rotation. Maybe a guy like a Dempster as far as results go. Lots of innings and strikeouts, keeping the team in most games.
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Post by njsox on May 23, 2013 8:56:07 GMT -5
I think that a lot of scouts expected there to be some transition time making the jump from Salem to Portland and I think that's what we saw/are seeing. It seems that he's settling in now. I think he will always be the kind of pitcher that's a workhorse innings eater, but does give up quite a few hits (like Andy Pettite or John Lackey not that his stuff resembles either). I think he's right on schedule for where a good prospect should be at this point. I think by the end of the year his numbers will look pretty good and it will be a solid season in terms of development. Actually reminds me a lot of Matt Morris in terms of arm, build, mechanics, arsenal and even performance in AA (with Barnes so far showing a better ability to get K's so far). A Morris type career would obviously make us very happy especially if he could add durability to the mix.
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Post by gatortough on May 24, 2013 9:51:30 GMT -5
Great first hand scouting reports up at BP right now. Barnes got the best report, but it has reports on him, Webster, and Workman. This report projects Barnes as a 3-4, with future potential of a number 2. No really new information, but nice detailed reports for anyone with a BP subscription.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jun 8, 2013 20:30:51 GMT -5
It's definitely worry time for Barnes.
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 8, 2013 20:32:14 GMT -5
not really a bad outing for Barnes even though he gave up 4 runs. Most of the hits were ground balls and he just got unlucky how they came right after one another. first inning was a walk, single, 2 strikeouts, a double steal, and then another single to drive in 2. Third inning was ground ball single, ground ball single, then a double. And those were all of the base runners, not too bad especially with the 8 k's.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 8, 2013 20:54:11 GMT -5
not really a bad outing for Barnes even though he gave up 4 runs. Most of the hits were ground balls and he just got unlucky how they came right after one another. first inning was a walk, single, 2 strikeouts, a double steal, and then another single to drive in 2. Third inning was ground ball single, ground ball single, then a double. And those were all of the base runners, not too bad especially with the 8 k's. Agreed. Looks like some bad luck. But love those K's
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2013 21:09:00 GMT -5
It's definitely worry time for Barnes. Why? First inning: two runs score on a walk and two singles, one of them a ground ball. He also strikes out two. Second inning: K, 5-3, K Third inning: Two singles, both on ground balls, and a double lead to two more runs. Another K Fourth inning: Three K's Then comes out at 89 pitches. Needs to be more economical, but I don't see this as a "worry" start.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,814
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Post by wcp3 on Jun 9, 2013 0:14:39 GMT -5
It's definitely worry time for Barnes. Why? First inning: two runs score on a walk and two singles, one of them a ground ball. He also strikes out two. Second inning: K, 5-3, K Third inning: Two singles, both on ground balls, and a double lead to two more runs. Another K Fourth inning: Three K's Then comes out at 89 pitches. Needs to be more economical, but I don't see this as a "worry" start. So are we ignoring the rest of the season?
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Post by jmei on Jun 9, 2013 0:23:23 GMT -5
My POV: hitters are sitting on Barnes' fastball. He's got great strikeout and walk rates, but has routinely been pounded. I do think much of it is bad luck, but the elevated home run rate in particular is worrying, especially since he's been pitching in the cold Portland spring where balls aren't exactly flying out. My conjecture is that his lack of a great secondary pitch means hitters can wait for the fastball. Barnes has good enough control that he's still striking guys out, but hitters have been hitting the ball hard when they've made contact.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,814
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Post by wcp3 on Jun 9, 2013 9:30:14 GMT -5
That's what worries me as well. I wasn't expecting him to develop a top-notch secondary offering over night, but I thought either his change or, especially, his curve would have taken a step up this season.
The numbers suggest he's been pretty unlucky this season (last night is a great example, what with all the singles), and the positive is that Barnes' SO/BB rate is still good. But he's consistently giving up hard contact, which is what has me worried a bit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 10:16:24 GMT -5
Why? First inning: two runs score on a walk and two singles, one of them a ground ball. He also strikes out two. Second inning: K, 5-3, K Third inning: Two singles, both on ground balls, and a double lead to two more runs. Another K Fourth inning: Three K's Then comes out at 89 pitches. Needs to be more economical, but I don't see this as a "worry" start. So are we ignoring the rest of the season? What does "worried" even mean? The guy was the unofficial runner up for the site's pitcher of the month award in May. He's not dominating, but the "rest of the season" has been fine. Let's look at it: April: In his first start, comes out after one not-great, but not horrible, inning because of mandatory 30-pitch rule Sox have. Gets hit hard in his second start. Stellar third start (6-5-1-1-7). Hit hard in his fourth start. So for the month, one great start, two pretty bad ones, one incomplete. Rough adjustment to Double-A - he's certainly not the first player to have that. May: For the month, 34.2 ip, 27 h, 11 r (10 er), 9 bb, 37 k. Not sure what more you want from the guy. Only thing that kept him from winning the site's POTM award was Ranaudo's even better line (33.0-20-8 (7)-10-32), and there was internal debate on that. Four great starts and one that was merely good. June: One really awful start to begin the month. Then last night's start which wasn't good, but wasn't a complete disaster either. So for the year, he's got three brutal starts in which his numbers (8.2 ip, 23 h, 18 r, 4 bb, 9 k) are inflating his season numbers. Do we ignore those? No, absolutely not. He got hit hard, as you can see, and wasn't missing many bats (of those 9 k's, six were from one of the three starts). My guess is that on those nights, his curve and/or changeup weren't working at all. We know those pitches are inconsistent, and his ability to develop those is probably his biggest developmental need. When they're not working, he'll have nights like that. To me, I want a guy to struggle a little so he learns how to pitch. If you're "worried" about Barnes right now, your expectations for minor league players are unrealistic.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 10:22:54 GMT -5
As for the "consistent hard contact":
Of his 7 HR allowed this year, 3 came in that awful 6/2 start. He's given up 14 doubles. 12 of those were hit in 3 of his 12 starts (5, 4, and 3), and one of those games (the 5-double game) is when he gave up one of his three triples allowed.
So basically, he's had four games in which he's given up more than one XBH, and eight games in which he's given up one or none. Interestingly, the 4- and 3-double games were good starts (5/17 and 5/22), so he was able to pitch around them. Another interesting note is that one of his bad starts - a 2.1 inning, 6 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 1 K stinker on 4/14 in his second start - he didn't give up a single XBH, suggesting death-by-papercuts bad luck.
This all dovetails with what I said above about the secondaries, which kind of jibes with what you guys are saying w/r/t his developmental needs. But it's not like he hasn't had his secondaries at all - he's had them some nights and hasn't had them others. I like that, personally.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 10:25:19 GMT -5
Split this out of last night's gameday thread b/c it's interesting.
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Post by tomricardo on Jun 9, 2013 12:01:59 GMT -5
I don't understand why anyone would be too worried with his K Rate and looking at Ranaudo. Two bad months do not sink a prospect.
He is in AA working on his secondary pitches. I would rather him struggle now and try to figure it out then give up throw him in a bullpen role and say he is not a starter.
The Red Sox have enough pitching depth in their system to be very patient with a guy like Barnes.
I rather Barnes' issues to Dylan Bundy's issues (undisclosed elbow tightness).
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Post by njsox on Jun 10, 2013 11:05:33 GMT -5
I know we as Sox fans are an impatient group, but have we given up on developing prospects entirely? Matt Barnes has things he needs to improve upon, just like all prospects. Are his secondary pitches behind where we all hoped they would be by now? Yes. Has he shown some potential with them? Yes. His combination of k/9 and k/bb% Are top 5 in the league with 2 of those guys (Gausman and Workman) already having been promoted. If he spends the rest of this year in Portland, he still starts out in Pawtucket next year as a 23 year old. This kid definitely has some time and, with his peripherals, I could definitely see the floor of an effective MLB reliever with a power arm.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 10, 2013 13:08:56 GMT -5
Thanks for the perspective from Chris and everyone. The impatience may be understandable, the game-to-game bi-polar commentary less so.
Go back and read the analysis on the site. Mellen and the others have had this nailed for a while. He has a dominating fastball but you need more than that in the majors. He's working on the secondary stuff, and those pitches are really improving. Will there be times when it doesn't all come together? This is baseball where ups and downs - for players, winning and losing streaks, hell entire seasons such as last year's for the Sox - are the order of the day.
Stand back a little and look for long-term improvements. Consistency in performance start-after-start, is the hallmark of the very best pitchers. Think Buchholz this season. We really shouldn't expect that from anyone who hasn't reached that level. Barnes has good peripherals as nj makes clear. He's a real prospect and one or two games where it doesn't all work out is no reason to panic.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 11, 2013 5:14:14 GMT -5
Thanks for the perspective from Chris and everyone. The impatience may be understandable, the game-to-game bi-polar commentary less so. Go back and read the analysis on the site. Mellen and the others have had this nailed for a while. He has a dominating fastball but you need more than that in the majors. He's working on the secondary stuff, and those pitches are really improving. Will there be times when it doesn't all come together? This is baseball where ups and downs - for players, winning and losing streaks, hell entire seasons such as last year's for the Sox - are the order of the day. Stand back a little and look for long-term improvements. Consistency in performance start-after-start, is the hallmark of the very best pitchers. Think Buchholz this season. We really shouldn't expect that from anyone who hasn't reached that level. Barnes has good peripherals as nj makes clear. He's a real prospect and one or two games where it doesn't all work out is no reason to panic. We are Red Sox fans. Panic is our way of life. Or at least it was until 2004. How long until the house money runs out?
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 11, 2013 12:11:51 GMT -5
I think we all expected some growing pains for Barnes in AA. He can't get away with what he got away with in College and A ball. Barnes was able to dominate those levels because of his fastball. The sooner he learns that the better. Struggles early in his first shot at AA will force him to integrate his secondaries and refine them more. He's a work in progress, I think his talent and work ethic will win out and this will end up a good season for him. He's learning to be a pitcher not a thrower and sometimes that learning experience isn't pretty.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2013 20:34:32 GMT -5
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jul 21, 2013 20:53:07 GMT -5
At least he looks strong mentally with grinding out.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 22, 2013 10:26:48 GMT -5
Makes sense based on his inconsistent results this year ... his curveball was almost uniformly terrible earlier according to him, so the times he didn't feel his change (and it happens), he was a one-pitch pitcher, with just his fastball to go to. He was probably hit pretty hard those stretches. Other times, he felt his change (or his curve was working more recently) and did pretty well. I'll be very interested to see how he does the rest of this year. If he puts together a consistent last six weeks, I'll be optimistic. Still think he's got a reasonable chance to have a long, successful career as a starter on a championship-caliber club like the Sox.
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