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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2019 11:15:12 GMT -5
Problem is, it would be hard for him to be an elite closer if he can't get lefties out. Highest leverage situations are usually going to include either a good LHB in the lineup, or a pinch-hitter situation.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2019 12:31:19 GMT -5
He’s getting a few more whiffs than last year and he’s significantly cut his walk rate. Hoping he’s working out how to command and utilize the 4FB to go with the 2FB and SL. Still think he’d benefit from getting the CH in order or maybe even trying a SF, though I’m not sure how his arm angle would affect SF movement. His low-3/4 isn’t great for 4FB rise, and it makes sense he scrapped the CB cuz that’s not a great pitch unless it’s over-the-top. Arm slot works awful well with the SL though. I mean, they have the *perfect* mirror image model for him in Sale: 2/4, SL, CH, all low-3/4. Clearly it works, as long as he can command. Still appreciate his trying to use spin data to maximize his repertoire though. Tonight was a nice step. As I tweeted: the splits are very, very deep. He could get RHB in the majors out tomorrow with his slider. Well, he threw 110 pitches, so not tomorrow, but you get what I mean. Good to hear that the change was working against lefties. He's going to need to develop that a lot. It really benefits the Red Sox if teams continue to load lineups with LHB against him - over 60% of the batters he's faced have been left-handed. Yeah, I saw his splits somewhere else just before I read this, and it’s (painfully?) obvious that he needs to either really master the CH to where he can use it frequently and in any situatiin vs lefties, or try another pitch like a SF (I know I’ve been mentioning it a lot lately, but I think it’s a terribly underutilized pitch, and it’s ideal for opposite-handed batters; old friend Frankie Montas is a *completely* different pitcher this year after adding a SF). He also would really benefit a ton, I think, from a little more ability to manipulate and locate the SL; his slot makes it suboptimal vs LHB but Sale has obviously figured out a way to use his SL against righties, so it’s certainly possible. Sale varies his SL velocity quite a bit, he can get it low and in or just nick the outside corner down, and there are times when he gets more vertical break and less horizontal vs righties. I really like Houck, because he’s got a classic workhorse build and solid to plus velo, with a terrific pitch in the SL, at least vs RHB. Kinda reminds me of Gene Nelson. On top of that, he strikes me as very coachable and open-minded, and I think in today’s game that’s becoming a huge plus. Hitting 96 after 100 pitches really isn’t something you can teach...that’s the “innate starter” characteristic Bannister talked about before the draft. Def a good point that LHH-loaded lineups are gonna help him, because I think *when* (not if) he unlocks the secret to shutting down lefties, Houck is going to really surprise some people. He’s an exciting player to me...there’s tremendous upside once he figures out the splits. I think he’s gonna eat innings like Porcello, but on top of that I’ve got some hope that he turns into more than a 3/4. Even so, 1st-division 3s are a relatively rare commodity, and developing Houck to be just that would be a huge win for the Sox. Darwinzon, Houck, Mata, and Groome (and maybe even Thad Ward, whose changes I’m very curious about) all have a shot to fit that bill.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 7, 2019 12:41:39 GMT -5
Moved some Houck discussion/analysis here
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Post by ramireja on Sept 15, 2020 11:36:53 GMT -5
Congrats to Houck on his upcoming debut, and we're rooting for lots of Ks tonight:
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Post by Canseco on Sept 15, 2020 11:50:57 GMT -5
ROOAAAARRRR! The Incredible Houck finally arrives!
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 15, 2020 15:44:54 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 15, 2020 20:11:54 GMT -5
$700
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 16, 2020 12:09:34 GMT -5
Houck's splitters last night, threw six, all to lefties, one good one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2020 12:56:54 GMT -5
In the game thread, I reported that Houck had an 0.48 pERA last night. That was 0.11 versus RHB and 1.18 vs. LHB, but the latter figure includes his second pitch of the game, which Dickerson smoked. If you give him a jitters mulligan (which Dickens novel had Jitters Mulligan as a character?), then he was -0.45.
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So, did anyone else say to themselves, wow, his 4-seamer and sinker are pretty much two different pitches, in terms of movement?
If that's the case, it essentially gives him an extra pitch.
So I constructed a spreadsheet of pitch data for the 213 starting pitchers who threw 200+ innings total from 2015 to 2019. I narrowed that down to the 185 guys who threw both a 4-seamer and sinker sufficiently often.
Now, Houck's five IP fall somewhat short of my 200 IP standard. But he had 7.0 inches of movement difference between his two fastballs, which would tie Mike Soroka (200.1 IP!) at the top of the leaderboard.
Check out this comp. Numbers are percentage 4-seamer, sinker, and breaking ball; then fastball type movement difference.
.407, .174, .349; 7.0". Tanner Houck last night.
.416, .180, .362; 6.3". John Lackey, 2015-2019.
Of course, Lackey had a curve which he threw occasionally (his total is .276 SL, .086 CU).
The next thing I notice is that Houck's 4-seamer movement, 5.2", would rank worst! But that gives him an insane ratio of movement between the two pitches. The average guy in my database gets 46% more movement on his sinker, and the highest figure is Soroka's 94%. Lackey had 69% extra. Houck last night got 134% more movement. It really does function as a different pitch.
When they were converting Bard to a starter I did a study of guys from the previous season, their arsenals and their effectiveness. The conclusion was that arsenal size was only relevant to being an ace. You can't be an ace throwing 3 pitches. Other than that it didn't seem to matter. And very few people (mostly the aces) had three pitches that got better than average results. Two plus pitches and a third one to keep people guessing is all you need to be a #3.
So that's two different reasons why his success as a starter is less reliant on developing his splitter (which Statcast classified as a change) than is advertised.
Oh, and Eduardo Rodriguez arrived in MLB as an actual 3-pitch pitcher and added a cutter and sinker. A cutter is a relatively easy pitch to learn, and lots of guys throw both a cutter and slider. Remy and Eck were really confused watching one of Mazza's starts and eventually started distinguishing between a hard and soft slider -- but the former was his cutter.
Finally, given the college connection, I couldn't help reminding myself of the scouting reports that Max Scherzer got (admittedly after his only year in the minors). Both BA and BP had him as a future closer, ranking him 66th and 90th. If you take Scherzer and downgrade him by the proportional quality of a setup guy to an elite closer, is that Houck's upside?
Next up (after lunch -- and no cracks about drinking Kool-Aid) ... where does his slider movement rank? I look at slider movement relative to 4-seamer. I think that's what's happening in hitter's brains. And here, the relative lack of movement that Houck has on his 4-seamer would make the slider really play up.
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Post by patford on Sept 16, 2020 13:08:45 GMT -5
His 6th K had a weird screwball type movement. Was that was the cutter he's added ?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Sept 16, 2020 14:06:17 GMT -5
That was a sinker
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Post by Canseco on Sept 16, 2020 14:46:13 GMT -5
Yeah... that looked like a solid two-seam fastball. During the game, what really amazed me was Houck's slider. If he can command that thing consistently, watch out. The thing is like a frisbee.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2020 15:01:29 GMT -5
Yeah... that looked like a solid two-seam fastball. During the game, what really amazed me was Houck's slider. If he can command that thing consistently, watch out. The thing is like a frisbee. I love the slider/2-seamer combo against righties. Close to the same speed dipping the opposite ways. Those 2-seamers he busted in on a few righties really tied them up. The two outstanding questions are a) does he gave a good formula against lefties, and b) can he carry his velocity? Truthfully, I don’t see why he can’t do something similar to lefties to what does to righties: jam sliders on the hands and throw 2-seamers on the outside that move out of the zone for chases.
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Post by patford on Sept 16, 2020 15:47:44 GMT -5
Yeah... that looked like a solid two-seam fastball. During the game, what really amazed me was Houck's slider. If he can command that thing consistently, watch out. The thing is like a frisbee. Well that two-seam FB is so different from his four seam and slider that he's apparently got a very good mix right there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2020 16:37:18 GMT -5
I'm going to go way deeper into fastball and slider effectiveness.
But these prelIminary findings are likely to hold up in some fashion once I'm done.
For guys who throw both kinds of fastballs, the raw movement on the sinker has a negative correlation to effectiveness. So it is indeed the movement relative to the 4-seamer that seems to be what matters.
The most predictive thing is the ratio of the extra movement to the 4-seamer movement. The thing that Tanner Houck is off in his own universe in.
This is why they taught him the 4-seamer, and why he actually throws it more than the sinker.
His raw sinker movement is actually below average! MLB hitters were going to learn to hit that. But make the sinker into an out pitch that contrasts with an OK 4-seamer, and that's golden.
------
It turns out that the raw movement on the slider is what seems to be predictive of effectiveness, not the movement relative to FB.
Houk's 25 sliders last night broke an average of 8.7".
How good is that? Chris Sale's averages 7.0.
I have 141 guys who throw the slider in my database.
8.9" Corey Kluber 8.8" Mike Clevinger
But Clevinger doesn't throw it as hard.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 16, 2020 16:37:48 GMT -5
Yeah... that looked like a solid two-seam fastball. During the game, what really amazed me was Houck's slider. If he can command that thing consistently, watch out. The thing is like a frisbee. I love the slider/2-seamer combo against righties. Close to the same speed dipping the opposite ways. Those 2-seamers he busted in on a few righties really tied them up. The two outstanding questions are a) does he gave a good formula against lefties, and b) can he carry his velocity?Truthfully, I don’t see why he can’t do something similar to lefties to what does to righties: jam sliders on the hands and throw 2-seamers on the outside that move out of the zone for chases. I'm not super concerned about his velocity, but I do think location of his 4S is going to be critical. It's awfully straight and I can see why he was hit around when he first started using it and throwing it completely in place of his 2S. But if he can locate it toward the periphery of the zone and use it somewhat sparingly so that hitters are trained to see the SL and 2S, then he might just be ok. It will be interesting to see how he does against lefties....two paths for improvement are improved command of his SL against LHB and the development of the splitter. It would be even better if he could do both. Exciting debut for the guy and one of those moments as prospect followers thats incredibly gratifying (no matter what the future holds).
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 16, 2020 16:46:48 GMT -5
He is in line to pitch Sunday against NY which will be must see TV for anyone on this site. I was thinking about Lowe's final 3 starts in 2001 which set him up for a great 2002 year as a starter, not that I expect the same results when Lowe finished second in ERA in 02.
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Post by patford on Sept 16, 2020 17:02:11 GMT -5
I love the slider/2-seamer combo against righties. Close to the same speed dipping the opposite ways. Those 2-seamers he busted in on a few righties really tied them up. The two outstanding questions are a) does he gave a good formula against lefties, and b) can he carry his velocity?Truthfully, I don’t see why he can’t do something similar to lefties to what does to righties: jam sliders on the hands and throw 2-seamers on the outside that move out of the zone for chases. I'm not super concerned about his velocity, but I do think location of his 4S is going to be critical. It's awfully straight and I can see why he was hit around when he first started using it and throwing it completely in place of his 2S. But if he can locate it toward the periphery of the zone and use it somewhat sparingly so that hitters are trained to see the SL and 2S, then he might just be ok. It will be interesting to see how he does against lefties....two paths for improvement are improved command of his SL against LHB and the development of the splitter. It would be even better if he could do both. Exciting debut for the guy and one of those moments as prospect followers thats incredibly gratifying (no matter what the future holds). He did "blow away" a couple of hitters with his 95-96 4S. So much of pitching is deception. We have seen that a fair number of MLB hitters can hit a 100mph FB if they can sit on it. As with all pitchers it's going to come down to command. If he can command even one pitch and have good control over 2 to 3 other pitches he's going to be a good starter. His slider looks close to devastating. It's practically uninhabitable. Many of the strikeouts resulted in hitters who looked flummoxed in one way or another. So hard to say after one start. Three weeks ago I had little hope for him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2020 21:59:02 GMT -5
His 6th K had a weird screwball type movement. Was that was the cutter he's added ? FYI, a screwball and a cutter have completely different break. A screwball breaks toward the arm side, like the two-seam in the video. A cutter is like a slider that's thrown harder and with less movement.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2020 22:04:23 GMT -5
Does anyone throw a screwball anymore? Last guy I remember being a big screwball pitcher was Tug McGraw.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2020 22:20:53 GMT -5
I love the slider/2-seamer combo against righties. Close to the same speed dipping the opposite ways. Those 2-seamers he busted in on a few righties really tied them up. The two outstanding questions are a) does he gave a good formula against lefties, and b) can he carry his velocity?Truthfully, I don’t see why he can’t do something similar to lefties to what does to righties: jam sliders on the hands and throw 2-seamers on the outside that move out of the zone for chases. I'm not super concerned about his velocity, but I do think location of his 4S is going to be critical. It's awfully straight and I can see why he was hit around when he first started using it and throwing it completely in place of his 2S. But if he can locate it toward the periphery of the zone and use it somewhat sparingly so that hitters are trained to see the SL and 2S, then he might just be ok. It will be interesting to see how he does against lefties....two paths for improvement are improved command of his SL against LHB and the development of the splitter. It would be even better if he could do both. Exciting debut for the guy and one of those moments as prospect followers thats incredibly gratifying (no matter what the future holds). They had him throw 41% 4-seamers, more than any other pitch, and I think you've got the game theory / expectations thing backwards.
The best strategy for him would probably be to throw the the three pitches at random. That makes it impossible to guess on any of them. And only the best hitters can hit that sinker or not chase that slider unless they're looking for it -- in which case, it's not that hard.
If a hitter knows it's mostly SL and SI, they have close to a 50% chance of guessing correctly at random, and a much easier time of trying to guess smartly. Adding a third pitch makes it much more difficult. The number of non-show pitches goes up 50%, but the number of different pitch sequences goes up exponentially. You go from 8 to 27 three-pitch sequences.
As I noted above, the sinker movement is an 80 (easily) only in comparison to his 4-seam movement. You have to throw the latter often enough to turn the sinker from a pitch with 45 movement to 80.
You're absolutely correct that he needs to command it to the edges of the plate and leave it out of the middle. But now that I believe that he has 80 movement on both his 2-seamer and slider (lots of work needed to measure how important the former is), I believe that's not the difference between being able to start and needing to relieve, but the difference between being a top-to-mid rotation starter and a mid-to-bottom one. Improving the splitter will help a bit there, but it's a lot less important than commanding the 4-seam fastball.
Which is of course always job #1! But in his case, the potential benefits are higher than usual.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2020 22:33:23 GMT -5
Does anyone throw a screwball anymore? Last guy I remember being a big screwball pitcher was Tug McGraw. It's not in any pitch-tracking system. And that's in part because a screwball behaves exactly like a hard changeup with lots of movement. I know I've read pitchers describe their changeups as "almost a screwball."
The same thing, BTW, has happened to the screwball comedy (Bringing Up Baby, It Happened One Night, etc). They don't make them anymore, but Crazy, Stupid, Love, with Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling? It's a hard changeup with lots of movement.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 16, 2020 22:43:24 GMT -5
Houck's slider is reminiscent of Byung-hyun Kim's frisbee.
SP profile says his FB runs 92-94 and tops out at 98. That might be a little generous off last night's emotionally charged game. There was no suggestion that he doesn't hold velocity.
It seems evident that the split is a work in progress.
He sure has the classic pitcher's frame...tall, lean with long levers. I could almost hear him grunt tho...
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2020 23:17:24 GMT -5
Does anyone throw a screwball anymore? Last guy I remember being a big screwball pitcher was Tug McGraw. It's not in any pitch-tracking system. And that's in part because a screwball behaves exactly like a hard changeup with lots of movement. I know I've read pitchers describe their changeups as "almost a screwball."
The same thing, BTW, has happened to the screwball comedy (Bringing Up Baby, It Happened One Night, etc). They don't make them anymore, but Crazy, Stupid, Love, with Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling? It's a hard changeup with lots of movement.
Holy cow do I love His Girl Friday. Those were all so great. Am I officially old?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 16, 2020 23:29:00 GMT -5
Does anyone throw a screwball anymore? Last guy I remember being a big screwball pitcher was Tug McGraw. Brent Honeywell, and it’s no coincidence he hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2017
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