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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2013 13:45:33 GMT -5
As of the now the 2013 rotation appears to be:
1. Lester
2. Bucholz
3. Dempster
4. Doubront
5. Lackey
Injuries and arm fatigue are bound to happen to pitchers at some time or another. Lackey could badly struggle coming back from TJ surgery. When a pitcher gets injured in 2013, who makes the spot start? Or if a starter goes on the DL, who replaces him?
Here are the other starters on the 40-man roster:
1. Rubby De La Rosa
2. Allen Webster
3. Drake Britton
4. Stephen Wright
Here are some relievers that could or have started in the past:
1. Franklin Morales
2. Andrew Miller
3. Alfredo Aceves
4. Clayton Mortensen
5. Alex Wilson
Here are some other possibilities that are not on the 40-man:
1. Graham Godfrey
2. Chris Hernandez
3. Brandon Workman
4. Terry Doyle
Junichi Tazawa is probably will not start again because of his success out of the bullpen. Also, I'm not going to consider Matt Barnes until he makes at least 10-15 starts in AA, depending on his success.
Reply for your thoughts please
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Post by mainesox on Jan 19, 2013 14:12:49 GMT -5
If it's just a start or two I think it's a pretty easy answer (at least in my opinion): you would go with one of Morales, or Aceves (Morales if it were up to me). If it's a more extended period of time I think things become a little more muddled; it could still be Morales or Aceves, or it could be any of RDLR, Webster, or Wright if they feel they are 'ready,' and depending on who is pitching the best at the time.
In an ideal world I think the depth chart for extended injuries would look something like:
RDLR
Webster
Wright
Morales
Aceves
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 19, 2013 15:29:12 GMT -5
If it's just a start or two I think it's a pretty easy answer (at least in my opinion): you would go with one of Morales, or Aceves (Morales if it were up to me). If it's a more extended period of time I think things become a little more muddled; it could still be Morales or Aceves, or it could be any of RDLR, Webster, or Wright if they feel they are 'ready,' and depending on who is pitching the best at the time. In an ideal world I think the depth chart for extended injuries would look something like: RDLR Webster Wright Morales Aceves I agree with the spot start analysis of Morales or Aceves, but in an extended period I think your order may be upside down. Morales and Aceves are most likely to take a regular rotation turn in case of an injury since we have depth in the pen and could add a Carpenter (or Bard if he's in AAA) and stick them in mop up duty pretty easily without sacrificing the development of RDLR or Webster. And Wright to me is the scariest option of that bunch. |
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Post by mainesox on Jan 19, 2013 15:36:19 GMT -5
I don't think they would want to use either Morales or Aceves as starters for a long period of time, simply because they aren't stretched out to do it and it makes the bullpen weaker as well as the rotation (and neither of them are likely to go 7-8 innings, so you'd want a stronger pen if anything to put one of them in the rotation for an extended period). You're right though that if they don't feel those guys are ready to step in then the most likely option is one of Morales or Aceves simply out of necessity (which is the point I was trying to make when I said "or it could be any of RDLR, Webster, or Wright if they feel they are ready.")
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 19, 2013 15:36:55 GMT -5
If we leave camp with one starter injured then I hope Hernandez gets a shot. I am curious to see if he can keep up his numbers with unremarkable stuff at a higher level.
I would also be very curious to see Tazawa spot start...
That said Morales was great spot starting last year before he got hurt. I like him as a starter much more than in the pen personally. He is the most likely first option.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 19, 2013 15:46:37 GMT -5
RDLR is years away from enough innings to start at the MLB level... can we assume that is not an option to start the year? What would an innings cap and progression be for him this year?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2013 19:02:40 GMT -5
RDLR is years away from enough innings to start at the MLB level... can we assume that is not an option to start the year? What would an innings cap and progression be for him this year? RDLR made 10 starts for the Dodgers in 2011 before TJ surgery. That brings two things to mind:
1. He is closer to the bigs than you think. He will need to start 2013 in AAA, but he could spend some time in Boston later in the year. He is not years away. 2. His service time clock began ticking in 2011, so he is not under team control for as long as you think. You want him in Boston as soon as possible without hurting his development. RDLR is yet through throw over 110.1 innings at any level, so he probably will be limited with around 150 in 2013, 180-190 in 2014, and then after that he should be fine. I wouldn't expect more than 190 innings from a power pitcher like RDLR anyway. I think we will see him making a few starts in 2013 maybe towards the end of the year. In 2014, I think he will be a regular part of the rotation. The question remains who will be out of Boston when RDLR, Webster, and Barnes are all ready. |
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Post by charliezink16 on Jan 20, 2013 17:13:23 GMT -5
I think Clayton Mortensen is a dark horse candidate in this scenario.
Mortensen made 26 appearances out of the bullpen last season after being called up on 5/2.
In 12 of those appearances, Mortensen pitched at least 2 innings and had a combined stat-line of: 33.2IP, 30K, 10BB, 2.17ERA
In 14 of those appearances, Mortensen pitched less than 2 innings and had a combined stat-line of: 8.1IP, 11K, 9B, 7.78ERA
The BB's are a bit of a concern, but overall I was thoroughly impressed with Mortensen in 2012. I think Clay has the ability to start, and with the plethora of RH relievers Boston has, I'd like to see Mortensen stretched into a full time starter.
Webster, Britton, Wright, Hernandez, and Workman probably aren't ready to fully contribute right now. Godfrey and Doyle don't appear to be anything more than AAAA guys, though that is up for debate. Miller has found his niche as a left hand specialist, and Tazawa is excellent in the pen, don't mess with what they have going for them, no need to pull a Daniel Bard here. Wilson, additionally, has made the transition to the pen, so leave him there. RDLR is coming off TJ, and will probably need a little bit of time in AAA, though I'm ecstatic over what Boston has in him. That leaves Aceves, Morales, and Mortensen as our spot starters IMO, but I really do believe Mort can be a pretty good starter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 20, 2013 17:36:51 GMT -5
very curious to see Tazawa spot start... I wonder if the Sox will ever give him another look as a starter. I'm intrigued by how the excellent fastball command he showed last year would play in that roll. |
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Post by elguapo on Jan 20, 2013 22:22:31 GMT -5
I assume A. Miller and Wilson are full time relievers from here on out. And I don't think they want to risk messing up Tazawa.
I assume the long man will spot start, and the four options in the minors are solid fill-ins, depending on who is pitching well at the time and whose turn in the rotation coincides with the need. Webster seems to me the least likely to get called up as the others are further into their careers and ready for testing, so to speak.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jan 21, 2013 14:26:17 GMT -5
I think it depends on timing. Early in the season if a starter goes down I would not expect to see DLR, but midseason if he has impressive AAA stats I think he would be the go to, after consideration of his innings limit.
I would like to see Morales get those starts because I think that is where we have the most to gain. I don't think anyone really considers Miller, Aceves, Mortensen, Wilson as starters anymore, but players that can step into the rotation for 15 day periods. But there has be deliberation if Morales can be an effective started. I don't think it would be off saying his ceiling is that of a 3-4 starter (if everything goes right for him), and some people on the forums suggested we go into 2013 with him penciled in at #5. If we can turn a reliever who we acquired for cash into a average ML starter that is a huge turnaround. He is still young and cheap.
A small part of me wonders if Miller can take last years relievers stats into a start role. We thought he could do it for a while now. The other part of me thinks don't mess up a good thing.
Tazawa, man the FB-splitter combo seems like it would be successful in a starting role, but he could be the next Daniel Bard.
What about looking for a FA who will sign an Aaron Cook type contract.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 22, 2013 17:54:43 GMT -5
I assume A. Miller and Wilson are full time relievers from here on out. And I don't think they want to risk messing up Tazawa. I assume the long man will spot start, and the four options in the minors are solid fill-ins, depending on who is pitching well at the time and whose turn in the rotation coincides with the need. Webster seems to me the least likely to get called up as the others are further into their careers and ready for testing, so to speak. I don't think there is much risk of turning tazawa into a starter again. He was solid in the starting role before the injury. Bard sucked as a starter in the minors and his demise was predictable. Tazawa has much better control and knows how to pitch instead of Bard who just knows how to throw. If we do see Tazawa starting it would be in the second half because of need like Morales last year. It would be a good way to get good relief innings while not jacking up his innings too much. My gut tells me he will get the opportunity. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 22, 2013 22:46:30 GMT -5
Given the way Tazawa's stuff has played up in the bullpen, I don't know that the Red Sox will be in a rush to move him back to the rotation. This isn't a situation like Papelbon or Feliz where a minor league starter became a reliever in the big leagues because he was needed for the role. Tazawa was converted to the pen in the minors.
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Post by rodstero6 on Jan 23, 2013 4:44:34 GMT -5
Given the way Tazawa's stuff has played up in the bullpen, I don't know that the Red Sox will be in a rush to move him back to the rotation. This isn't a situation like Papelbon or Feliz where a minor league starter became a reliever in the big leagues because he was needed for the role. Tazawa was converted to the pen in the minors. To be fair, Tazawa was a minor league starter before TJ surgery. Afterwards, they gave him all of 8 starts in 2011 before converting him to a reliever last year in the minors. So there's a bit of a point to be made that he didn't have his command back before they converted him to the bullpen. And, with the way some pitchers come back from Tommy John with improved stuff (albeit typically because they're spending rehab time actually working out the rest of their body) there is a tiny case to be made that he should be converted back to the rotation. That said, I agree with you. He's been too good in the bullpen and there are too many factors involved for the Sox to have him go back to starting. Just playing Devil's Advocate here. |
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