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brendan98
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 12, 2017 15:07:48 GMT -5
OPSing .477 since the All Star break, if this is a slump I guess you gotta let him play his way through it, but if it's due to the HBP to his hand in Tampa right before the break, which sure seems like it's the case, than when do the Sox shut Xander down and go with Lin and/or Marrero? They had shown themselves as a nice little L/R platoon earlier in the season..
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2017 15:37:01 GMT -5
He's been hitting poorly for over a year. He has to make some changes. His swing now compared to what it looked like as a prospect is just sad, granted that I know he had a huge hole in his swing get exposed when he hit the majors.
I'm not sure what his trade value would even be at this point, but I definitely wouldn't want to extend him if he doesn't show he can hit much better. His average glove is probably only going to get worse over time, and right now his bat giant doing him any favors.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2017 15:46:20 GMT -5
Xander is 9th in MLB in fWAR even after the awful stretch. I also wish we had the best player in the league at every position.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 12, 2017 15:52:17 GMT -5
He's been hitting poorly for over a year. He has to make some changes. His swing now compared to what it looked like as a prospect is just sad, granted that I know he had a huge hole in his swing get exposed when he hit the majors. I'm not sure what his trade value would even be at this point, but I definitely wouldn't want to extend him if he doesn't show he can hit much better. His average glove is probably only going to get worse over time, and right now his bat giant doing him any favors. In the first half he hit .303 .359 .447 for an .806 OPS I don't call that hitting poorly. In second half he has a .477 OPS.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2017 16:01:33 GMT -5
He's been hitting poorly for over a year. He has to make some changes. His swing now compared to what it looked like as a prospect is just sad, granted that I know he had a huge hole in his swing get exposed when he hit the majors. I'm not sure what his trade value would even be at this point, but I definitely wouldn't want to extend him if he doesn't show he can hit much better. His average glove is probably only going to get worse over time, and right now his bat giant doing him any favors. In the first half he hit .303 .359 .447 for an .806 OPS I don't call that hitting poorly. In second half he has a .477 OPS. Over the past calendar year he's been a below average hitter relative to the rest of the league. 92 wRC+.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 12, 2017 16:16:50 GMT -5
In the first half he hit .303 .359 .447 for an .806 OPS I don't call that hitting poorly. In second half he has a .477 OPS. Over the past calendar year he's been a below average hitter relative to the rest of the league. 92 wRC+. Well he slumped bad in the second half last year and is even worse this year. That doesn't mean he didn't have a good first half, he did. The issue seems to be he declines as the season goes along. Not that he is just hitting poorly for a whole year. Give him some rest!
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Post by sportnik on Aug 12, 2017 17:31:14 GMT -5
You look at what Shaw is doing in Milwaukee and the general regression that the Sox young hitters have had over the past year and you have to wonder if Farrell is the issue. Unfortunately it looks like we stuck with him unless he had a Grady-like meltdown in the playoffs (which is probably a 50/50 proposition).
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Post by prangerx on Aug 12, 2017 19:14:54 GMT -5
It does seem to have looked better the past few weeks. He even had a hit streak going. He has seemed to have some bad luck on some well hit balls, that just didn't fall in. But I can't dispute that his second half slumps have been very concerning....Also the fact he hasn't hit for the kind of power that has been expected of him, particularly this year.
Its not that he has been a bad player. Its just that people expect him to be great. His trade value is hurt by the fact that he is only two years away from free agency after this season. He has little value to small market teams looking to rebuild. But the fact he is so young and has so much talent... Makes it risky to give up on him now anyway.
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Post by marrcus on Aug 12, 2017 19:47:32 GMT -5
Makes it risky to give up" ----------------------------- I'd take that risk in the right deal. X is 0-11 last few games I believe. He's not even in his prime yet: he should have the stamina to at least get to August in first class shape. I get he's probably knicked up,maybe that's what messes with his swing? He should hit 10 Fenway hr's a year (min).
Boras will want top end money even though his power numbers don't demand it. He's a good ss but not a plus fielder. I'm not looking to make a Jacoby comparison but most of us were not looking for the FO to sign him either even though he put together an outlier season prior to UFA. We saw through it. I hope X's around for the future at fair value but I'm not counting on it. I want great power at corners/DH. We've got it at 3b let's get it at other two. If I have to take a plus fielder/less hitter, at SS so be it. I wouldn't pay 20m a year for what X offers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 12, 2017 23:25:59 GMT -5
You look at what Shaw is doing in Milwaukee and the general regression that the Sox young hitters have had over the past year and you have to wonder if Farrell is the issue. Unfortunately it looks like we stuck with him unless he had a Grady-like meltdown in the playoffs (which is probably a 50/50 proposition). What is it that a manager could do that would lead to a player hitting poorly?
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Post by patford on Aug 12, 2017 23:39:13 GMT -5
You look at what Shaw is doing in Milwaukee and the general regression that the Sox young hitters have had over the past year and you have to wonder if Farrell is the issue. Unfortunately it looks like we stuck with him unless he had a Grady-like meltdown in the playoffs (which is probably a 50/50 proposition). What is it that a manager could do that would lead to a player hitting poorly? I know I blame Farrell for Lindor hitting .268.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2017 0:15:25 GMT -5
You look at what Shaw is doing in Milwaukee and the general regression that the Sox young hitters have had over the past year and you have to wonder if Farrell is the issue. Unfortunately it looks like we stuck with him unless he had a Grady-like meltdown in the playoffs (which is probably a 50/50 proposition). What is it that a manager could do that would lead to a player hitting poorly? Not asking management to put him on the DL until he can hit with some authority.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 13, 2017 1:17:15 GMT -5
Bogey looks so messed up at the plate right now. He needs at least 10 days on the dl to think it over,
Can we welcome back Lin or marrero?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2017 9:00:40 GMT -5
Some numbers. I actually brought these with me (on a physical piece of paper, not in a spreadsheet yet!) to Florida.
Xander's season was going great through June 24 when he was hitting .324 / .376 / .478. He then went into an ordinary slump where his plate discipline went all to hell. And then he had the thumb injury, and sat out two games.
His plate discipline returned to normal within a couple days of his return, surprisingly so. The thing is, even when a hitter is going well, they'll occasionally get fooled by a pitch and chase out of the zone. When a hitter's swing is messed up mechanically, and/or when they're hurt and unable to make hard contact, we'll remember those bad swings much more. It creates the illusion that bad discipline is a factor.
The columns here are:
Hot: Through June 24 Cold: June 25 to July 6 (.176 / .256 / .265) B4: Through July 6 Hurt: July 8 to July 28 (.127 / .186 / .164) Now: July 29 to now (.250 / .298 / .273, but including 0/11; plate discipline numbers edited to include yesterday)
Stat Hot Cold B4 Hurt Now wRC+ 124 27 113 -14 44 K .158 .385 .184 .203 .085 BB .073 .051 .070 .068 .064 BABIP .376 .263 .367 .163 .275 Zone .490 .391 .479 .438 .523 Z-Swing .549 .492 .544 .638 .593 Z-Cont .916 .871 .912 .881 .944 O-Swing .309 .459 .330 .333 .265 O-Cont .651 .556 .633 .689 .636 LD .230 .050 .216 .140 .250 GB .491 .700 .508 .419 .475 FB .278 .250 .276 .442 .275 IFFB .203 .000 .188 .105 .091 HR/FB .078 .200 .087 .000 .000 Pull .452 .450 .452 .302 .325 Oppo .235 .300 .240 .279 .300 Hard .330 .300 .328 .186 .275 You can see that in his slump, his O-Swing went up by exactly 50% and his Z-Swing actually went down. Strikeouts skyrocketed. He was still pulling the ball, and hitting homers, but his GB soared, no doubt from pitches he chased.
When he was definitely hurt, his Z-Swing hit a season high, his pull percentage and hardness of contact and BABIP were all destroyed, and he hit a ton of fly balls. A guy just trying desperately to make contact, knowing that he has no ability to hit it hard at all.
Since July 29 he's hitting the ball much better, but it looks much more like a more successful adaptation to the injury than a guy who's now healthy but still messed up mechanically. His plate discipline has actually been quite good, and he's barely striking out. But he's still not pulling the ball. He's hitting a nice amount of LD, especially the other way. He hasn't homered and seems unlikely to do so until he starts to try to pull the ball. The results have not been good, but they looked much better just three days ago, so they may well get better and be OK. And it's possible that the thumb is feeling a bit better as part of that.
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Post by sportnik on Aug 13, 2017 9:38:27 GMT -5
You look at what Shaw is doing in Milwaukee and the general regression that the Sox young hitters have had over the past year and you have to wonder if Farrell is the issue. Unfortunately it looks like we stuck with him unless he had a Grady-like meltdown in the playoffs (which is probably a 50/50 proposition). What is it that a manager could do that would lead to a player hitting poorly? [ There is too much circumstantial evidence here of young hitters regressing under Farrell for there not to be an underlying root cause. Based on what I've seen from Farrell I suspect it's some combination of: Not holding players accountable. Constantly making excuses for his players. Not motivating his players to put the extra work in to improve. Not encouraging players to make adjustments. Not communicating effectively with young players.
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Post by m1keyboots on Aug 13, 2017 10:44:29 GMT -5
People are blaming Farrell for Xander. Is this serious? I can't tell if its a running gag on this site, or people just dont understand that players slump. He wasn't healthy, he got drilled in his hand. That thing looked broken for sure. It wasn't broken, now he probably feels better but is having a tough time getting back the feel.
He's hit 4 or 5 line drives this past weekend.
I know people love to blame Farrell, I get it. It seems to be a fan thing. Maybe its just left over from Valentine to assume that he's the problem. Are people really going to sit here and say Farrell aftects Babip? Does Farrell get credit for all the good things that have gone right with this club? I sure hope we dont start blaming him for random and stupid things even still after winning 9 of 10.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 13, 2017 10:58:06 GMT -5
I don't think there's much value in assigning blame here. The conversation should be: 1.) is Xander injured? 2.) Will rest allow him to heal/recover for Sept/October? 3.) If he'll be physically affected by the injury for the rest of the season and continues to be this type of limited hitter, how long do you give him regular playing time? He has been terrible for a while now, but the internal options are pretty weak too. I'd certainly give him more off days than he's been receiving, but I expect that to happen once Pedroia is back anyway.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 13, 2017 11:37:45 GMT -5
There is too much circumstantial evidence here of young hitters regressing under Farrell for there not to be an underlying root cause. Based on what I've seen from Farrell I suspect it's some combination of: Not holding players accountable. Constantly making excuses for his players. Not motivating his players to put the extra work in to improve. Not encouraging players to make adjustments. Not communicating effectively with young players. LOL This is where Farrell's teams rank in terms of OBP every year in the AL since he's been here: 1st, 8th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd. 23 years old Mookie Betts was a legit MVP candidate last year, 22 years old Benintendi would be the ROY in any year but 2017, Devers won't be able to legally drink for a while and he's sporting a cool .939, heck even Xander Bogaerts back in 2013 as nearly a teenager was key for the team that won the World Series. Your argument is bullsh*t and if it's based on Travis Shaw, which it looks like it is, he didn't "regress under Farrell". Last year he surpassed any expectations anyone had about him as a prospect and this year he kept it up. Plenty of real reasons to criticize Farrell for how he puts line-ups together of how he uses his bullpen. This is not a real reason.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2017 12:38:16 GMT -5
Every time the team is in a slump, people look for convenient excuses like the hitting coach or manager. It's based on nothing but bias. When the team is on a hot streak, it's forgotten.
This is a lost year for Xander and I won't blame anything but his thumb injury. Just wait til next year. It would be pretty difficult to replace Xander and almost assuredly not worth the cost. The only possibility would be buy-low candidates, which we already have in Xander.
Come September, I imagine he'll be getting more days off.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2017 12:41:41 GMT -5
What is it that a manager could do that would lead to a player hitting poorly? [ There is too much circumstantial evidence here of young hitters regressing under Farrell for there not to be an underlying root cause. Based on what I've seen from Farrell I suspect it's some combination of: Not holding players accountable. Constantly making excuses for his players. Not motivating his players to put the extra work in to improve. Not encouraging players to make adjustments. Not communicating effectively with young players. Do you have a source for any of that or are you just making stuff up to fit the narrative you want to believe? We heard the Travis Shaw thing, but from all we've heard about every other young player is that they all have outstanding work ethics. A good manager will always make excuses for his players to the media just to have their backs. We don't have any clue what goes on behind closed doors. It's ridiculous to guess and then declare it true.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2017 13:34:58 GMT -5
By all reports Chili Davis is a very good hitting coach. He has worked a ton with Bogaerts and Bradley. In the minors in 2011 and the last 3 years in majors.
In that time Bogaerts, Bradley and Sox have been very good at hitting overall. The last couple years the slumps have been huge though. Every team will go through slumps, but our slumps seem to be bigger and longer than than I can remember in the past. We are either red hot or ice cold. Not much in the middle.
So I would look at adding an assist hitting coach that can help our hitter work on that. Even if Davis is great, sometimes players need someone new to show them something different.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2017 14:23:07 GMT -5
To clarify the one reasonable way that JF contributes to this: there's a culture in MLB about letting guys play through injuries. It's a standard way of doing things, like reliever usage. And it's clearly sometimes (or often) counterproductive. Not only is the guy playing hurt often performing worse than his backup, he's also not recovering as fast as he would if he weren't playing.
Xander had a -14 wRC+ for 20 days after hurting the thumb. At the time, Lin and Marrero were platooning at 3B and Travis was on the roster, so the offsetting roster move, had they DL'd him, would have been to recall Sandoval from his crappy rehab and have him on the bench until they activated Holt on 7/16 (two days after they actually DFA'd Sandoval). Whether it was Lin, Marrero, or eventually Holt who was in the lineup instead of Xander, each of them would have been better, and Xander would have had 10 days or more off.
In retrospect that was the thing to do. Given how thumb injuries like that are known to wreck hitting, it was also easy to foresee. Someone decided not to go that route. Was JF involved in that decision? We don't know. Was he in a position to make the better thing happen? Sure. Would that have been uncharacteristically bold for him, or most MLB managers. Yes.
Folks might want to look at the Playing Through Injuries thread where I gave the evidence that a DL stint for Moreland when he broke his toe would have had similar very positive results.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 13, 2017 22:25:25 GMT -5
What is it that a manager could do that would lead to a player hitting poorly? [ There is too much circumstantial evidence here of young hitters regressing under Farrell for there not to be an underlying root cause. Based on what I've seen from Farrell I suspect it's some combination of: Not holding players accountable. Constantly making excuses for his players. Not motivating his players to put the extra work in to improve. Not encouraging players to make adjustments. Not communicating effectively with young players. Even accepting that this circumstantial evidence exists for the sake of argument (as shown above, it doesn't), interestingly, players in the Red Sox organization playing for Farrell correlates to their playing in the major leagues... which is harder than the minor leagues. It is hard to hit in the major leagues. Because a player in the major leagues is not hitting well does not mean it must be the manager. Young players hit poorly across the major leagues sometimes, as do players in their prime and older players. Dansby Swanson and Kyle Schwarber got sent to the minors this year when they weren't producing. Other young players have slumped. I think Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have simply set the bar too high for what we expect out of guys, and we lose sight of the fact that they're generational talents, not examples of what should be the norm. Do you think Bogaerts right now is like "eh, I'm not hitting well, but Farrell isn't yelling at me, so who cares?"
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 13, 2017 23:47:01 GMT -5
I dont want to pay him, but I dont really want to trade him either. Wonder if the FO is feeling the same.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 14, 2017 8:09:09 GMT -5
Every time the team is in a slump, people look for convenient excuses like the hitting coach or manager. It's based on nothing but bias. When the team is on a hot streak, it's forgotten. This is a lost year for Xander and I won't blame anything but his thumb injury. Just wait til next year. It would be pretty difficult to replace Xander and almost assuredly not worth the cost. The only possibility would be buy-low candidates, which we already have in Xander. Come September, I imagine he'll be getting more days off. His poor play this year is 10000% not because of this injury... He has been struggling for over a year
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