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Post by grandsalami on Aug 14, 2017 9:03:29 GMT -5
Xander is going to be the one the Sox let walk
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Post by station13 on Aug 14, 2017 9:32:26 GMT -5
His swing is jerky, slow and awkward. I can't remember if he even hits foul balls hard this year.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 14, 2017 9:49:10 GMT -5
In the first half he hit .303 .359 .447 for an .806 OPS I don't call that hitting poorly. In second half he has a .477 OPS. Over the past calendar year he's been a below average hitter relative to the rest of the league. 92 wRC+. Should he not be compared to other SS?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 14, 2017 9:55:36 GMT -5
i noticed him shaking his left hand last night in the box and also when he dove for that foul pop, he was very slow to get up, despite it not seeming to be that hard a fall (could be wrong). Those led me to believe there are some health issues that the team is not talking about.
That said, there isn't a reason to extend him at this point, or probably any point before FA. It is tearing me up, I like X the most out of all the guys on the club. I am praying for him to make all of us eat our words and become a big part of this team this year and in the future.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2017 12:19:04 GMT -5
Every time the team is in a slump, people look for convenient excuses like the hitting coach or manager. It's based on nothing but bias. When the team is on a hot streak, it's forgotten. This is a lost year for Xander and I won't blame anything but his thumb injury. Just wait til next year. It would be pretty difficult to replace Xander and almost assuredly not worth the cost. The only possibility would be buy-low candidates, which we already have in Xander. Come September, I imagine he'll be getting more days off. His poor play this year is 10000% not because of this injury... He has been struggling for over a year Completely false. It's true that on June 23 of last year, Xander lined a walk-off single off the White Sox' Matt Purke to give the Sox an 8-7 victory in 10 innings, and that he was hitting .351 / .401 / .510, and had, IIRC, +0 DRS or better, and was on a pace for a 6.0 WAR season. It's also true that the rest of the way, he hit .246 / .318 / .391 and was -10 DRS or worse. I've broken those numbers down and couldn't find a meaningful pattern, IIRC. The difference is too extreme to be random, buy we don't know what was going on. He did get very few days off, and he seemed to be tired. It's possible that something personal was affecting him. This year he was off to a lesser but still comparable start, .324 / .376 / .478 through June 24. He then went into an ordinary slump, then missed two games with a tight groin. He was 0/5 his first game back, but he went yard the next day for the only two runs in a loss to the Rangers. At this point he was still hitting .308 / .361 / .455. That's a guy who can hit 1 or 5 in a contender's lineup. The next game he got hit in the hand. Since the thumb injury, all his deeper metrics are those of a guy who has changed his approach because he doesn't feel he can hit the ball with any authority, and he's hit . 176 / .236 / .206. So, he had an 817 OPS in 341 PA before the thumb injury, and a 442 in 110 PA after. His median performance -- which is to say, if you pick his average game this year -- is still a guy who is a serious part of this offense. That's a much better measure of his talent level than his overall average. It's unclear whether he's gotten healthier or whether he's adapted better to the injury, but he's been a bit better recently.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 14, 2017 13:17:17 GMT -5
Every time the team is in a slump, people look for convenient excuses like the hitting coach or manager. It's based on nothing but bias. When the team is on a hot streak, it's forgotten. This is a lost year for Xander and I won't blame anything but his thumb injury. Just wait til next year. It would be pretty difficult to replace Xander and almost assuredly not worth the cost. The only possibility would be buy-low candidates, which we already have in Xander. Come September, I imagine he'll be getting more days off. His poor play this year is 10000% not because of this injury... He has been struggling for over a year I know what those numbers say but I'm going to defend Bogaerts here. Those numbers include his second half slide from last season and then his good start and the huge dropoff post-injury. Those second half numbers from last year to have a bit of a mitigating factor - Farrell was playing Bogaerts last year until he dropped. He was clearly in need of a breather last year that he never got. So you take exhausted numbers and then add an injury that affects him and you will have bad stats. I'm not trying to make excuses for him, but for whatever reason, Farrell refuses to give Bogaerts and Bradley any time off to regroup, so they play like guys needing a breather. He gave Benintendi a couple days off and Benintendi looks like a new man. I wish they'd give Bogaerts some time off, but the fact of the matter is that Farrell has no qualms about playing Chris Young for Benintendi but he doesn't want to use his backup SS if necessary nor move Betts or Benintendi to CF for a couple of days.
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 17, 2017 5:52:04 GMT -5
At what point do the Red Sox consider moving Xander off short? This is now back to back seasons he has posted well below average defensive metrics.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2017 6:18:14 GMT -5
At what point do the Red Sox consider moving Xander off short? This is now back to back seasons he has posted well below average defensive metrics. His value is in his bat. The Sox will probably ride out his 2+ years here at short stop and then move on or at least that's what I'd do. He can stick at short for at least that long and be acceptable if he keeps hitting.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2017 6:18:51 GMT -5
At what point do the Red Sox consider moving Xander off short? This is now back to back seasons he has posted well below average defensive metrics. -2.8 and -2.3 UZR/150 isn't well below average. It's barely below average.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2017 10:57:23 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 17, 2017 12:38:27 GMT -5
At what point do the Red Sox consider moving Xander off short? This is now back to back seasons he has posted well below average defensive metrics. -2.8 and -2.3 UZR/150 isn't well below average. It's barely below average. I was looking at DRS
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2017 13:28:32 GMT -5
Huh. DRS does kinda hate him. -23 since start of 2016, 47th of the 47 shortstops I mentioned.
That said, I'm still inclined to think of him as an "acceptably below average but keep an eye on him" defender given that the metrics don't agree on how far below average he is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 17, 2017 13:44:39 GMT -5
I don't see the point of playing through an injury if you can't play like you normally do. Big difference in playing through a little pain and playing when you have to change the way you hit and field. The new shorter DL stints make it easier. Just DL him for 10 days, better than letting it linger for 2 months. If it was Sept or Oct I could understand it, but not when Bogaerts got injured. I would rather 147 healthy games than 155 games with 2 months of him trying to get healthy.
In 2015 Bogaerts played very well according to DRS, he was average on D. It's only the last two years that he has gone backwards. So I don't think it's just DRS doesn't like Bogaerts.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2017 14:01:34 GMT -5
I don't see the point of playing through an injury if you can't play like you normally do. Big difference in playing through a little pain and playing when you have to change the way you hit and field. The new shorter DL stints make it easier. Just DL him for 10 days, better than letting it linger for 2 months. If it was Sept or Oct I could understand it, but not when Bogaerts got injured. I would rather 147 healthy games than 155 games with 2 months of him trying to get healthy. In 2015 Bogaerts played very well according to DRS, he was average on D. It's only the last two years that he has gone backwards. So I don't think it's just DRS doesn't like Bogaerts. That's just the argument I was making. The exact same thing happened with Moreland and his toe. Both guys changed their swings for the worse because it hurt to swing naturally. It's inconceivable that Lin/Marrero and Travis wouldn't have been better than what we saw when these guys were playing hurt. What is the point of having a deep organization if you're going to do that? The interesting thing is that they seem to be doing the right thing with Pedey, all the more surprising given his history of playing through injuries that affected his hitting. Maybe somebody used the Moreland and Bogey results to convince someone else to do the smart thing. Re DRS, Xander was around 0 not just in 2015 but in 2016 until late June. His DRS tanked at the same time his hitting went south -- he was on a 6.0 WAR pace that year on June 23 and was a 1.6 player the rest of the way -- in fact, IIRC, he was replacement level through a good stretch of that. That doesn't happen without cause.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2017 20:51:22 GMT -5
The fact that the Sox just made Xander play for almost 2 months and let him struggle because of injury is really really irritating to me. The fact he is admitting it now is frustrating.
What are you doing John Farrell and Dave Dombrowski?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 17, 2017 21:06:04 GMT -5
The fact that the Sox just made Xander play for almost 2 months and let him struggle because of injury is really really irritating to me. The fact he is admitting it now is frustrating. What are you doing John Farrell and Dave Dombrowski? I don't think they 'made him'. I think 'allowed him' is probably more accurate. Teams don't like their valuable players playing injured in June - it's usually a pride/ego thing with the player. Think of Cal Ripken. We praise him for playing in so many consecutive games, but how many of those games would his team have been better off if he had taken a day off or nursed an injury? Until the fans stop praising behavior like that, the players won't stop playing hurt.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 17, 2017 21:19:13 GMT -5
The numbers and the eye test leave me with no doubt that X's hand has been a major issue and the reason for his poor performance. His swing became noticeably weaker when he got drilled. I remember thinking he might not be any good the rest of the year and unfortunately that's what has happened.
Not DLing him weeks ago is inexplicable. But September call-ups are only two weeks away and I expect that Marrero will be brought up. I'd take advantage of that to give X at least a couple of days off in a row, building the rest around a game against a LH starter. In a SSS of 50 ABs, Marrero put up a .949 OPS vs. LHP.
Longer term, I'd like to see a bounce-back next year and then for the RS to shop him in a trade. He's not signing here on a reasonable deal, so move him just before his FA year and extract some value.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2017 0:14:33 GMT -5
The fact that the Sox just made Xander play for almost 2 months and let him struggle because of injury is really really irritating to me. The fact he is admitting it now is frustrating. What are you doing John Farrell and Dave Dombrowski? I don't think they 'made him'. I think 'allowed him' is probably more accurate. Teams don't like their valuable players playing injured in June - it's usually a pride/ego thing with the player. Think of Cal Ripken. We praise him for playing in so many consecutive games, but how many of those games would his team have been better off if he had taken a day off or nursed an injury? Until the fans stop praising behavior like that, the players won't stop playing hurt. I would normally agree with you but when the media asked John Farrell a month ago whether Xander should go to the DL, Farrell was quoted along the lines of saying "this is something Xander is going to need push or work through." Either way the Sox should of handled the situation better. Xander struggling doesn't help the player or the team. They should of taken charge of the situation and left the decision in their hands. The days of Cal Ripken are over.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 18, 2017 23:28:20 GMT -5
Bogaerts is the most intriguing Sox player the rest of this year and moving forward.
There are probably a bunch of interesting trades that can be made involving him in the offseason. If he proves healthy and rakes throughout this year, however, the calculus of those deals and his future contract change immensely.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 19, 2017 14:38:28 GMT -5
Bogaerts is the most intriguing Sox player the rest of this year and moving forward. There are probably a bunch of interesting trades that can be made involving him in the offseason. If he proves healthy and rakes throughout this year, however, the calculus of those deals and his future contract change immensely. I don't see Xander as a trade chip at any point. The Sox have no one good to replace him with.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 19, 2017 15:10:48 GMT -5
The fact that the Sox just made Xander play for almost 2 months and let him struggle because of injury is really really irritating to me. The fact he is admitting it now is frustrating. What are you doing John Farrell and Dave Dombrowski? I don't think they 'made him'. I think 'allowed him' is probably more accurate. Teams don't like their valuable players playing injured in June - it's usually a pride/ego thing with the player. Think of Cal Ripken. We praise him for playing in so many consecutive games, but how many of those games would his team have been better off if he had taken a day off or nursed an injury? Until the fans stop praising behavior like that, the players won't stop playing hurt. I have a theory that John Farrell believes in souls but not bodies. That is, he subscribes to the old school nonsense that players ought to play through the pain, and ignores that it is dumb to apply this principle when the injury is causing the players' performance to suffer. That would imply a) that Farrell may have asked Bogaerts to play so long as he was physically capable of swinging the bat, and/or b) there was subtle pressure for Bogaerts to play through the pain, even if it was not explicitly expressed. Of course, it could also be Bogaerts' attitude that playing through the pain is valorous, but at the very least Farrell didn't overrule Bogie in the matter. My evidence for this theory: Bogaerts and Moreland. Also the fact that Farrell likes to invoke abstract moral/psychological factors as justifications for his decision-making without explaining the concrete benefits of those decisions (e.g., we need to make a bunch of outs on the basepaths because that "puts pressure on the opposition" because that will help us... somehow...). Counter-evidence: resting Pedroia. My theory about that is that Pedroia himself is so gung-ho, even Farrell has to be like, whoa there, buddy, take it easy...
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 4, 2017 21:46:28 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 4, 2017 21:50:46 GMT -5
Bench him for the rest of the season. He is hurt and is hurting the team with his play.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 4, 2017 23:52:45 GMT -5
dat babip difference
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2017 0:24:16 GMT -5
It doesn't sound like he's going to be right the rest of the season. I think now is the time to have him take his DL time by being on the bench. I hate the idea of Nunez at SS, but it might have to be, and then they defense Marrero later in games. At this point Bogaerts is an easy out, devoid of any power. That injury really messed up his season.
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