SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,908
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2017 8:09:11 GMT -5
Xander as a leadoff hitter* has cut his strikeout rate from .201 to .097, which is way significant statistically (P < .01). His BB rate has gone from .072 to .115, which is a decent trend (p = .12).
His plate discipline numbers going into last night:
Bats Pitches Zone ZSw ZCo OSw OCo Leadoff 446 .451 .562 .929 .265 .692 Other 2029 .459 .552 .895 .318 .656 Fewer pitches in the zone, fewer strikes taken, and fewer swings and misses in the zone, but it's not remotely statistically significant (p = .75, .79, and .90).
He has a strong trend towards swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone (p = .11), but because the sample is so small, the improvement in contact on those pitches is not at all significant (p = .57). The two are causally related, so it's not kosher to multiply them together, and the overall improvement in the percentage of pitches outside the zone that he's chased unsuccessfully, .109 to .082, has p = .20.
So how do you explain the terrific improvement in K/BB ratio?
It has to be a changed approach on 2-strike and 3-ball counts. That reveals a whole missing set of plate discipline data that is probably highly relevant. I'm not sure a breakdown by every possible count would be informative (simply because the samples get so small), but separate splits for full count, other 2-strike counts, and 3-1 counts might cast a lot of light.
*He's never hit leadoff before this season, so all the data is from this year only.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 29, 2017 7:42:28 GMT -5
In his last 16 games, Xander has slashed .333/.455/.460 BB/K% 15.6%/9.1%
Although for some reason, Fangraphs doesn't include IBB in BB%, in which case his walk rate would be 18.2%. If they're not counting IBB in BB%, then they shouldn't count IBB plate appearances either and making his walk percentage lower without giving the player an opportunity to walk on his own if they pitched to him.
It's gotta be a mistake because I spot checked a Barry Bonds season and they definitely count IBB in BB% for him. In 2004, his walk rate was 37.6%, not 18.1%.
I submitted the issue to Fangraphs.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 29, 2017 8:33:42 GMT -5
If you can explain away Bogaerts numbers this season due to injury or change in approach (and I'm not smart enough to say we can definitively) then could his last few weeks be more representative of the hitter we will have the next two years? and maybe more importantly into the playoffs this year?
Becuase. That. Would. Be. Just. Super.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 29, 2017 10:28:32 GMT -5
In his last 16 games, Xander has slashed .333/.455/.460 BB/K% 15.6%/9.1% Although for some reason, Fangraphs doesn't include IBB in BB%, in which case his walk rate would be 18.2%. If they're not counting IBB in BB%, then they shouldn't count IBB plate appearances either and making his walk percentage lower without giving the player an opportunity to walk on his own if they pitched to him. It's gotta be a mistake because I spot checked a Barry Bonds season and they definitely count IBB in BB% for him. In 2004, his walk rate was 37.6%, not 18.1%. I submitted the issue to Fangraphs. I shouldn't be doing math before coffee. IBBs are already counted in BB. /facepalm
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,908
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2017 12:00:53 GMT -5
If you can explain away Bogaerts numbers this season due to injury or change in approach (and I'm not smart enough to say we can definitively) then could his last few weeks be more representative of the hitter we will have the next two years? and maybe more importantly into the playoffs this year? Becuase. That. Would. Be. Just. Super. If you eliminate stretches of time due to known injuries or similar factors, you almost always get better projections going forward. The classic example is David Ortiz. He was very streaky in Minnesota, but every one of his bad stretches came immediately before or after a DL stint (except one at the end of his last season). Eliminate those, and you get the hitter we were seeing in mid-late 2003. Another good example is Jed Lowrie, who played a big chunk of his 2006 season with Wilmington with a bum ankle. You could excise the time before and after his DL stint quite clearly, and come up with numbers that matched his debut season. I told Mike Andrews at a SABR meeting that winter that this site had him ranked way too low (#21 IIRC) and that he was still a top 10 prospect. Batting leadoff seems to really work for Xander. It fits perfectly with his surprising adaptation to an all-fields high-contact line drive hitter versus the pull-power guy we thought we would be getting (a great adaptation in the age of shifts and high strikeouts, BTW). I've always thought he'd re-incorporate his plus raw power into that approach, and I think the injury this year essentially set him back a year on that. But I still think he's a 20 HR guy down the road, if not 30. Oh, he's hit .312 / .378 / .432 this year in 426 PA, except for the 48 games after he got hit in the hand, where he hit .193 / .270 / .293 in 200 PA. That's a 118 wRC+ versus 46. Not random. (This split includes his 2/7 in his first two healthy games ... but he looked really good, going 0/3 against Alex Cobb on a day when no one hit him and hitting two very loud outs. So it's not cherry-picked to get the best numbers. Recall that he was being benched the day he started looking like himself (after looking terrible the day before), entering in the 2nd as a pinch-runner for Nunez.) Edit: corrected the numbers for the proper date of the injury!
|
|
|
Post by m1keyboots on Sept 29, 2017 13:12:01 GMT -5
Man Jimed14 I was about to slide by FG and start complaining about the Simmons article without mentioning the Betts back to back -30 runs saved seasons. I was talking to someone I work with, who happens to be a Yankee fan. She was explaining to me that Mookie gets all his runs saved defensively bc he's mastered Fenways RF. Before I could let her know A. Does that even matter if you play half the games there? B. Aaron Judge and Yankee stadium RF homers lol. C. This thread is about Xander.
Even during the slump he still hit at'em balls, and that hand beaning looked particularly bad.
How MLers can play through beanings like that is beyond me. Including the way he continued to go about his business, hand probably feeling like the staypuft marshmallow man, and relative good defensive play I wasn't too worried,(ok I was).
With no real long term talent in the minors, and DRS being generally unfavorable to X the last couple years I wonder how that'll change the arbitration process. 2 months ago he was slashing something like 315/380/450 on a position with Seager, Lindor, and Yankee Stadium Didi as the offensive best. Hopefully the Bosox don't lowball him. There hasn't for me, except for a time his sophmore season that I wondered if he was below average at SS. The odyssey that was short immediately after Nomar left was a long one.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 29, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 29, 2017 17:25:44 GMT -5
Great article. What an awesome work ethic. And people are getting dumber and dumber in comments sections.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Dec 29, 2017 18:00:35 GMT -5
There never has been a question of his work ethic. Just hope Hyers can press the right buttons to get the power to play.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 29, 2017 19:33:14 GMT -5
Thanks for posting. Hoping for the best, X has been my favorite prospect of the last 20-30 years. I believe what he says about the hand, but it isn't that simple. He clearly changed his approach to favor OBP over power. I am not sure that was the best decision. It may have been made for self preservation, and I can't blame him for that, but IMO, he should be more aggressive in the zone.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,679
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Dec 30, 2017 23:34:54 GMT -5
The Xander of today is so different from him as a prospect, it’s almost not worth comparing. Unless they risk completely overhauling his swing and approach (which is risky in its own right), he won’t ever be the guy we thought he could/would be. Still a valuable player, just not the guy we dreamed on.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 31, 2017 3:23:03 GMT -5
The Xander of today is so different from him as a prospect, it’s almost not worth comparing. Unless they risk completely overhauling his swing and approach (which is risky in its own right), he won’t ever be the guy we thought he could/would be. Still a valuable player, just not the guy we dreamed on. Yeap, which is exactly why I thought he was the biggest concern heading into 2018, even over David Price's injury concerns. If we know David Price is healthy, there is a good chance he is AT LEAST a number 2 or 3 starter. If we know Xander is healthy, what is he? A solid and good but not great player on a team with playoff aspirations. People may say that's fine and it COULD be, BUT on a team not loaded with everyday superstar talent in the lineup, it may not be good enough. Maybe that's why Dombrowski is looking at Machado. Just speculating.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 31, 2017 10:07:03 GMT -5
I'm still in the camp that Xander can become an elite level hitter. It might be in a different way than we initially thought, less HR's, but better average, plate control, etc.
That being said, I have absolutely no idea what type of contract extension he'd be looking for at this point, or even after a good 2018.
Also, I think all of this Machado talk/rumors is complete crap. It's being used by Boston to pressure Boras to have JDM sign by "potentially" getting its offensive boost elsewhere, and it's being used by Baltimore to prop up its trade position, which they've already bungled, and I have zero doubts they'll completely screw it up.
There's too much of why Machado shouldn't/won't come to Boston for me to even consider it a remote possibility.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Dec 31, 2017 12:09:23 GMT -5
I think it not happening has less to do with Machado/Boston than it does Baltimore trading him in general.
I just don't see any way for all sides to come away happy enough to get a deal done, and I've thought that since rumors of his availability popped up. It just doesn't make sense. By all accounts, Manny wants to test the market, and he should, considering talk of the kind of contracts he and Harper could be getting. That means there's no way you would be able to use a negotiating window to pull off a trade and extension in one fell swoop. If that is the case, nobody will (read: should) give up enough for 1 year of control for the O's to feel satisfied with the return.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,656
|
Post by gerry on Dec 31, 2017 13:59:23 GMT -5
I think it not happening has less to do with Machado/Boston than it does Baltimore trading him in general. I just don't see any way for all sides to come away happy enough to get a deal done, and I've thought that since rumors of his availability popped up. It just doesn't make sense. By all accounts, Manny wants to test the market, and he should, considering talk of the kind of contracts he and Harper could be getting. That means there's no way you would be able to use a negotiating window to pull off a trade and extension in one fell swoop. If that is the case, nobody will (read: should) give up enough for 1 year of control for the O's to feel satisfied with the return. Agree it's a trade that shouldn't happen. And shouldn't happen for the many valid reasons enumerated. Personally, I am in the camp of wanting to hang onto Xander. Eric's look at his offensive stats above, and XB's awareness of how stupid it was for him to ruin his game in order to play thru pain, are strong evidence that he is likely to pull it all together as a veteran 25 year old. The kid continues to learn and grow. (As a sidebar, how stupid was the training/coaching staff to permit him, and MM, and JBJ and Nunez and others to play poorly through injuries. We can hope that era is over.) In addition to XB and JB and AB I also want to hang on tightly to Groome and Chavis and Mata et alia as there is zero reason to trade any of them. Simply sign, at a reasonable rate, JDM as DH. If not him, then Duda or LoMo as DH. Duda and Nunez would produce a ton of runs and allow a move for more shut down pitching. Keep the door open for Brentz, Swihart and eventually Chavis. One last thing. I do not like Machado and don't want him on the Red Sox. He has a reputation as a dirty player for a reason. I believe his spiking of Pedey was deliberate, perhaps not consciously, but at least subconsciously as part of his game. After taking out Pedey, he took out Nunez with an extra and unnecessary tweak of his arm. This is not necessary in baseball. It is also more obvious and often severely punished. Referees in basketball, hockey, football, soccer spend half their game policing against dirty play at speeds which make such policing difficult. Most baseball players try to "keep it clean". Those that don't hurt your team.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 31, 2017 15:41:42 GMT -5
I have not given up hope that Xander will end up being a 300 hitter with 30 hrs in his prime. He just turned 25 and this year was a throw away based on the injury, at 23 he hit 294 with 21 hr. XB hasn't even settled into himself as a hitter yet, take a look at all the changes he has made at the plate. He has all the tools to be a 300/30 guy who can play a decent ss.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2017 16:16:15 GMT -5
Easy to forget how young Bogaerts is.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 31, 2017 16:29:26 GMT -5
Easy to forget how young Bogaerts is. Yes it is!! He hit with one hand this year!
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 31, 2017 17:39:24 GMT -5
Easy to forget how young Bogaerts is. Yes it is!! He hit with one hand this year! Yea, he's young, no doubt on that. But because he was called up so young, he's a FA in just two years for the 2020 season. Certainly plenty of time for the Sox to see what they really have with him, but time is running out for any sort of non FA contract/team friendly deal, if that was ever actually a possibility with Boras, which was always questionable at best to be fair
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Dec 31, 2017 23:30:03 GMT -5
I do not think we were ever getting a contract from Boras.
If betts and sale are priority resigns, where does that leave bogey and Bradley?
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Jan 1, 2018 14:21:36 GMT -5
I do not think we were ever getting a contract from Boras. If betts and sale are priority resigns, where does that leave bogey and Bradley? Way too early to get specific on XB. Not even sure what XB is yet. He could be terrific. Or he could have flattened out. I'd "ride out" XB. With JBJ I'd take I'd look more to trade at a future time. This year imo no reason to actively seek a trade for him. But with XB, at this moment I'd be more concerned that he will be an above average ss but not so much above average. He wouldn't be a priority over Betts, Devers, and Beni. Regarding priorities, who's to say Betts will want to sign with Sox or if his ba/ops will be more like this year? If Betts isn't much better of a hitter beyond what he showed and Xander is more like 2016 - it might be harder to get a quality ss.
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Jan 16, 2018 11:45:00 GMT -5
I think Bogaerts will have a very good year, if healthy. I think close to .300 with 15 HRs and a .350 OBP... maybe another 15 SBs too. Defense will be average to slightly below however. In the long run, I do not see Boston resigning him... I just feel like Boras will demand he be paid 24 mil per year....
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,656
|
Post by gerry on Jan 17, 2018 13:08:32 GMT -5
I think Bogaerts will have a very good year, if healthy. I think close to .300 with 15 HRs and a .350 OBP... maybe another 15 SBs too. Defense will be average to slightly below however. In the long run, I do not see Boston resigning him... I just feel like Boras will demand he be paid 24 mil per year.... Last year Xander said he will steal a few more bases, and he did. Last year he played through pain in his wrist which sapped his power.This season, we have a new manager and coaches who want to play an aggressive, though intelligent, running game, and who will also work with XB about launch angle and hitting his pitches in the zone. Would it really be a surprise if he hit that .300/.350 while also becoming another Red Sox 20+/20+ guy? With AB, Mookie and JBJ ... maybe Nunez? That would be awesome, fun baseball.
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Jan 17, 2018 23:26:41 GMT -5
I think Bogaerts will have a very good year, if healthy. I think close to .300 with 15 HRs and a .350 OBP... maybe another 15 SBs too. Defense will be average to slightly below however. In the long run, I do not see Boston resigning him... I just feel like Boras will demand he be paid 24 mil per year.... Last year Xander said he will steal a few more bases, and he did. Last year he played through pain in his wrist which sapped his power.This season, we have a new manager and coaches who want to play an aggressive, though intelligent, running game, and who will also work with XB about launch angle and hitting his pitches in the zone. Would it really be a surprise if he hit that .300/.350 while also becoming another Red Sox 20+/20+ guy? With AB, Mookie and JBJ ... maybe Nunez? That would be awesome, fun baseball. It would not be a surprise if he hit .300/.350 at all... I think he will.
|
|
|
Post by Bogey2Short on Mar 29, 2018 23:08:20 GMT -5
After seeing his new, taller stance, I'm feeling pretty good about my favorite player. Go BOGEY!
30+ bombs, .300+AVG
you heard it here first
FYI I am not saying this premature and am not a blind homer
|
|
|