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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2018 10:18:55 GMT -5
In regards to him batting 3rd. Cora should do it now. He needs to put his stamp on this team, show that he is willing to make the right move. Not hitting for Leon last night was a missed opportunity, I want more out of him. Be a little more proactive. The key thing is to have your best 5 hitters 1 through 5. We all suspect that Devers is a better hitter than Hanley, but it's too soon to pull the plug on Hanley 3. If you do drop Hanley to 6 (maybe 7 once Pedey is back), there are lots of ways to do 1 through 5, all with JDM cleanup. If Devers hits 5th, then the three B's can hit 1 through 3 in any order without there being a huge difference (although certainly you want to find the best one). And right now it's too soon to tell what the best sequence is: it depends in large part on how much power each one ultimately manifests, versus walks, and versus singles. I think the biggest challenge in that lineup is not getting the sequence perfect, but coming up with a better nickname than the too-obvious "Killer B's." (Devers could also hit 3, with Benny 1, and X and Mookie 2 and 5 or vice versa. But that seems less likely.)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2018 12:00:38 GMT -5
I'll take a season where he stays healthy and isn't streaky or doesn't wear down. If that happens he should be very good.
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 4, 2018 6:25:34 GMT -5
Agreed with your whole statement, I would be more than ecstatic with the line somewhere around 325/380/500 With the 50 doubles and 30 home runs. Sprinkle in the 15 steals. That would be an MVP season in my opinion If he had 50 doubles and 30 home runs, he'd have an ISO well over .175. If he did hit .325 with that many XBH and his typical walk rate, you're looking closer to .325/.400/.570 which is kinda crazy to predict IMO. Considering I said "somewhere around", I didn't expect someone from the peanut gallery to come nitpick at my comment, which was supposed to be a positive one. So let me make it all better 47 doubles, 27 bombs, 15 steals. 325/380/575. I didn't make a prediction, I said I would be ecstatic with such a slash line. So as crazy as you'd like to think that prediction is, a prediction it wasn't. If you'd like to consider my hopefulness crazy then by all means labeled it crazy. I guess I'm just a glass-half-full kind of guy. Maybe it's because I moved out of Boston
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 6:33:37 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and bump a Xander Bogaerts thread.
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around if the Sox are going to extend him. One year left until free agency.
He's a bad short stop defensively and it's probably going to get worse as time moves on. He might be the worst defensive short stop in MLB by the time he's 30. He prides himself as a short stop though and I have a hard time seeing him moving off the position any time soon.
OTOH, he's like a top 3 hitting short stop in the league and he's still young. He's a now 2 time world series champion here. His swing was built for Fenway and he's the best hitting short stop the Sox have had since Nomar Garciaparra.
The outside factors is Scott Boras and whether the Sox can replace him or come to a fair agreement on both sides.
I think if Xander was willing to take a 7 year, 140 million dollar deal right now, I'd do it. Anything beyond 150 million is a no go for me. How much is Xander willing to take to stay in Boston? He's been with the organization for over 10 years now. I think he would take less to stay, but I don't know how much less or if he'd take a say 150 million dollar offer or less offer to stay here.
Tzu-Wei Lin is also a factor, I think. If Lin keeps hitting and proves he can be more than a super sub, then he could also play a small decision whether to overpay for Xander or not.
I think you're almost forced to extend Sale coming up, because you have no one to replace him talent wise.
Xander I think is the toughest decision for the organization the next 3 years to extend.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Nov 3, 2018 11:53:31 GMT -5
I don't think it's clear that he's a bad shortstop. The numbers range from he's a bad shortstop, to he's basically an average one. I struggle to recall a player who there was such consistent disagreement with among defensive metrics. Normally if you have an average UZR, everything else is average. Not the case with Xander.
With the focus on shifting, I wouldn't be shocked if range becomes slightly de-emphasized when assessing defensive value of infielders.
Ultimately, I think his bat is equally confusing. He's been 5 different offensive players over his Sox career. I'm a fan, and thrilled to have watched him grow up in the system and become a borderline star, but his path has been a strange one.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 12:13:26 GMT -5
I don't think it's clear that he's a bad shortstop. The numbers range from he's a bad shortstop, to he's basically an average one. I struggle to recall a player who there was such consistent disagreement with among defensive metrics. Normally if you have an average UZR, everything else is average. Not the case with Xander. With the focus on shifting, I wouldn't be shocked if range becomes slightly de-emphasized when assessing defensive value of infielders. Ultimately, I think his bat is equally confusing. He's been 5 different offensive players over his Sox career. I'm a fan, and thrilled to have watched him grow up in the system and become a borderline star, but his path has been a strange one. He has had bad range 2 out of the last 3 years. His DRS has been declining hard for 3 straight years. He's still in his mid 20's right now. It's only getting worse from here defensively. You're right about him offensively while developing in Boston though.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2018 12:19:04 GMT -5
I don't think it's clear that he's a bad shortstop. The numbers range from he's a bad shortstop, to he's basically an average one. I struggle to recall a player who there was such consistent disagreement with among defensive metrics. Normally if you have an average UZR, everything else is average. Not the case with Xander. With the focus on shifting, I wouldn't be shocked if range becomes slightly de-emphasized when assessing defensive value of infielders. Ultimately, I think his bat is equally confusing. He's been 5 different offensive players over his Sox career. I'm a fan, and thrilled to have watched him grow up in the system and become a borderline star, but his path has been a strange one. He has had bad range 2 out of the last 3 years. His DRS has been declining hard for 3 straight years. He's still in his mid 20's right now. It's only getting worse from here defensively. You're right about him offensively while developing in Boston though. And yet his UZR/150 has him slightly above average.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Nov 3, 2018 17:19:03 GMT -5
exactly my point, DRS has consistently hated him while UZR likes him. I think the truth is that he's probably a slightly below average shortstop. A guy who's not a liability but not among the better fielders at the position. With his bat that's a really good player.
The question to me is what type of bat he is. I still think there's more power in that bat. He's still young, and he's clearly good at adjusting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2018 18:07:29 GMT -5
He's probably slightly below average at short but fields the position acceptably. I'm not worried about him going Nomar on us.
As far as the idea that he's "only going to get worse," I don't agree with that either. He's 26, not 34. It is within the range of possible outcomes that he even improves a bit.
There's no reason to go Chicken Little about Bogaerts on defense. I thought we'd all worked through this already.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 20:08:23 GMT -5
Isn't 28 when the decline usually hits?
I wasn't thinking he'd turn Nomar, I was thinking he'd turn into Jeter, who became a short stop who had no range outside of his first step in either hole to his left or right.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2018 20:09:30 GMT -5
Isn't 28 when the decline usually hits? I wasn't thinking he'd turn Nomar, I was thinking he'd turn into Jeter, who became a short stop who had no range outside of his first step in either hole to his left or right. Jeter wasn't laughably bad until he was in his late 30s. That's a long time from now with Xander.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 20:28:18 GMT -5
Isn't 28 when the decline usually hits? I wasn't thinking he'd turn Nomar, I was thinking he'd turn into Jeter, who became a short stop who had no range outside of his first step in either hole to his left or right. Jeter wasn't laughably bad until he was in his late 30s. That's a long time from now with Xander. I'm not so sure about that. Jeter was a complete negative ever since DRS and UZR existed in all but one year (2009) from 2003-2014. Xander reminds me a lot of Jeter defensively. Sure hands, good arm, not a ton of range.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Nov 3, 2018 22:02:44 GMT -5
not to beat a dead horse but if the issue is range, I think that's less important in 2019 than it was in Jeter's playing days. There's so my emphasis on positioning players on data/scouting that range is not as important as it was in the recent past. I'm hardly the first guy to make this argument, but I think we might get to a point where teams worry about range in the outfield and ignore it in the infield, leading to more offensive minded middle infielders and fewer guys who are just really good quality middle infielders.
Even if that's not the case, I'd caution that Xander is tricky to assess in terms of range in that his foot speed is well above average, but people still think he's below average. He has long strides; he looks slow. But he's one of the faster guys on the team. Whether that translates to fielding, I don't know, but it certainly has an impact on the bases.
Xander is a bizarre player. We're lucky to have him, but he's hard to evaluate. I think the offensive ceiling is still enormous. To me, he's the 2nd best all around offensive player on the team.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 23:17:01 GMT -5
He's not better than JDM or Mookie offensively. I can also see him and Benintendi going from 3rd to 4th best on the team. Still a plus offensive player.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 4, 2018 0:24:19 GMT -5
Isn't 28 when the decline usually hits? I wasn't thinking he'd turn Nomar, I was thinking he'd turn into Jeter, who became a short stop who had no range outside of his first step in either hole to his left or right. No. 28 is the average age of when players have their best seasons. That means some have it earlier and some later. Physically, players start to decline in their early 30s but the rate of decline varies considerably. Players who are natural athletes and keep in good shape are likely to age more slowly.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Nov 4, 2018 8:34:38 GMT -5
Offensive player meaning position player. Apologies for the lack of clarity on my part.
A SS who can put up a 130 wRC+ is worth a lot. Even if his defense isn't great. I think it's reasonable to believe that if Xander puts up that offensive line, he could be the second best position player on the Sox. Martinez is clearly a better hitter and Benintendi is in the same ball park offensively, but he's of course a Left Fielder.
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