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2018-19 International Signing Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 3, 2018 7:32:29 GMT -5
Cedroia is the 31st ranked Red Sox prospect during another down year for the system. He appears to have limited power and projects to have a ceiling as spare outfielder on a second tier team. Could his value increase as he matures, sure. However, they are likely going to use that bonus money to acquire two or three guys with much higher ceilings than Cedroia. This team needs to take those risks to help rebuild their farm system. For one, you’re not getting two or three highly rated signees for $1.5M. That’s enough for one top-30 IFA, plus maybe a second player in the next tier. That’s clear if you look both at the bonuses the Sox have already handed out, and at the IFA deals in general. These payers are also 4 years younger than Cedrola, who’s hit at every level (but could stand to take a walk). I’d say he looks like a solid 4th OF who can play all three positions and won’t kill you with the bat, but whose BA/OBP/SLG are alarmingly similar. His upside is probably a light-hitting CF for a second division team. But light hitters with great contact skills do develop power sometimes, and learn to take a walk. Cedrola is a much lower risk player than any 16-y/o. So if they’re really doing it to sign just one guy (or two), I question the value. The bust rate is pretty high. OTOH, as I said, if they’re doing it to basically ink 6 guys to $250k deals, then that makes more sense to me. Maybe they’ve planned that all along (I mentioned a while back the “sign-a-boatload” approach, which has merit just on odds and the inherent wild variance on outcomes for players this young), and they’ve put extra scouting resources out there. I wouldn’t put it past Romero to have a trick like that up his sleeve. But if you’re not buying a *bunch* of lottery tickets with that money, odds are you’re throwing it (and a useful player) away. They could sign about 429 Cedrola's for $1.5M. (bonus $35K)(I know that's not how this works) I don't see the loss there. He's like Jose Iglesias without the glove to me.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 3, 2018 7:54:51 GMT -5
I LOVE the fact that they traded a player for more international cap space. I just wasn't 100% that Cedrola was the player to trade. That being said, I like the thought process enough that I'm not mad at the results. I just wish that they could do the same with draft signing capital too.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 3, 2018 8:36:28 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2018 8:45:45 GMT -5
I'm a novice to the international signings but does international cap space carry over? Seems like they have a ton of space left, am I missing something?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 3, 2018 8:47:35 GMT -5
I'm a novice to the international signings but does international cap space carry over? Seems like they have a ton of space left, am I missing something? No carryover from year to year. Use it or lose it ADD: And if they have eyes in Victor Victor, then they'll need that space.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 3, 2018 8:53:10 GMT -5
It is natural to associate high signing bonuses with talent. However there are just as many guys who have success with low bonuses Acuna ($150 k), Robles ($150k), Cano ($100k), Ozuna ($50k), Altuve ($15 k), Cruz ($15 k),etc. as there are busts such as Fukodome, Matsuzaka, Contreras, Nishioka, Irabu, etc. calltothepen.com/2018/03/18/mlb-top-prospects-latin-bonus-prospect/4/bleacherreport.com/articles/1852254-10-most-disastrous-international-free-agent-signings-in-mlb-history
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 3, 2018 9:03:08 GMT -5
The Padres curiously signed 15 players for $300k each (note this is the max they could sign any one player given they had exceeded their signing cap in the last two years). Given that AJ Preller is still their GM I would hope MLB looks into those signings given his history (e.g. Pooling bonus similar to what the Red Sox were accused of in prior years to circumvent cap). Also curious why MLB is publishing bonuses given to Venezuelan prospects given their families request not to do so as it increases the risk of kidnapping relatives. Padres Euribel Angeles, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Neifi Antunez,SS, Venezuela -- $300,000 Charlie Aquino, SS, Dominican Republic --$300,000 Nerwilliam Cedeno, SS, Venezuela -- $300,000 Justin Diaz, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Reginald Dowston, OF, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Albert Fabian, OF, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Eduardo Hidalgo, OF, Venezuela -- $300,000 Wilmert Paula, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Axcel Peralta, 1B, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Alex Ramirez, C, Venezuela -- $300,000 Emanuel Rodriguez, SS, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 Edwin Rojas, OF, Venezuela -- $300,000 Wilfredo Tovar, C, Venezuela -- $300,000 Jose Velez, OF, Dominican Republic -- $300,000 www.mlb.com/news/july-2-international-prospects-signing-tracker/c-283495622
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2018 9:08:27 GMT -5
I'm a novice to the international signings but does international cap space carry over? Seems like they have a ton of space left, am I missing something? No carryover from year to year. Use it or lose it ADD: And if they have eyes in Victor Victor, then they'll need that space. Damn. Now you have my hopes up!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 3, 2018 10:19:06 GMT -5
I don’t really get the Cedrola trade. Internally they must really not have liked what they saw. To me it doesn’t make much sense to trade a 20-y/o who’s young for his level, has plus speed, plays solid CF defense, and has excellent bat-to-ball skills for the chance to sign a couple of players 4 years younger who have no minor league track record, let alone an intriguing one. There’s got to be more going on...they’ve either got a few guys they *really* like, or maybe (and i actually like this idea) they’re going for volume in the 100-300K range and hoping at least one of 5-7 guys shakes out as a bigtime prospect. I get trading a guy like Longhi, who was further along but didn’t look like he was going to be a starter in MLB. But 20 years old and having success? Just seems odd to me. So the calculus is would they rather have Cedrola or $1.5M in international cap space. Cedrola profiles as, at best, a fourth outfielder. We'll have to see how they use the money until we can really judge the trade. Last year, they basically dealt Longhi for the money to sign Daniel Flores, which I liked. Right now they haven't even used up their original cap space, so we can't really judge this deal against what they used it for yet. Will any of these new signees play this year? If not, what do the Sox do with them until next yr.? Likely not. Last year, they signed a bunch of older guys who could play right away and would be able to jump to the US this year because they'd been in the penalty box for a year and hadn't signed anyone - these were guys to help fill in that gap. And they got some pretty good ones too, see Alexander Montero, who just jumped into the rankings at #44 (now 43 with Cedrola gone). But usually these guys sign and go work out at the complex. There's also a "shadow league", which is kind of like a DSL JV team, that I understand is for these guys. But they'll all play in the DSL nextyear. I'm a novice to the international signings but does international cap space carry over? Seems like they have a ton of space left, am I missing something? No carryover from year to year. Use it or lose it ADD: And if they have eyes in Victor Victor, then they'll need that space. Correct, no carryover. They currently have $6,483,500 in cap space and can trade for another $2,237,625 (you can increase your cap by up to 75% through trades, which apparently drops to 60% next year). VTSox currently has them at $3,240,000 spent, so considering they have another $3.2M left in their current cap (and bothered trading Cedrola to get there - they haven't even spent his money yet), they must have something planned. And note that someone asked Badler (I think - could've been McDaniel or Longenhagen) about Mesa, and he said that there's no word on when he's even having a workout for scouts, so I don't think the Cedrola trade was for Mesa money. With Mesa, I think they would wait and trade for that when they need it. I would be stunned if they didn't have plans for that other $3.2M, even if it's dinking and dunking it into ~$300-500k signings. Give it time.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 3, 2018 11:17:11 GMT -5
Fwiw, I thought the Longhi move was a good one. That’s because Flores looked like a potential generational player at an ultra-premium position, and because Longhi, being closer to MLB, had more or less declared who he was as a player. I definitely think the way the bonus is used is what determines value, regardless of who they sign.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 3, 2018 12:22:28 GMT -5
I agree that higher bonuses are generally going to players with perceived higher talents with the price driven up by competition. However there is also a higher risk element given the age and further development to occur. There is also something to be said for signing a bunch of players between $100 k and $300 k to increase the odds for success with a larger talent pool.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 3, 2018 19:13:27 GMT -5
Bumping with additional reported bonuses from Jesse Sanchez.
Eduardo Lopez, of, Dominican Republic -- $1.15 million signing bonus Eduardo Vaughan, of, Panama -- $550,000 signing bonus Claudio Ochoa, rhp, Venezuela Naysbel Marcano, c, Venezuela -- $350,000 signing bonus Elio Prado, of, Venezuela Carlos Reyes, rhp, Dominican Republic -- $180,000 signing bonus Bryan Gonzalez, of, Dominican Republic. -- $500,000 signing bonus Gabriel Jackson, rhp, Dominican Republic -- $350,000 signing bonus Alixandri Alvarez, ss, Venezuela Efren Diaz, rhp, Venezuela Giancarlos Santana, cf, Dominican Republic -- $460,000 signing bonus Wikelman Gonzalez, rhp, Venezuela Luis Talavera, rhp, Venezuela Albert Feliz, 3b, Dominican Republic -- $400,000 Alex Zapate, if, Venezuela Andy Pena, c, Venezuela
Bonuses reported so far -- $3,940,000
Space left with current pool -- $2,543,500
Space left up to the max -- $4,781,125
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Post by ramireja on Jul 3, 2018 23:35:01 GMT -5
There is definitely an emphasis on those mid tier signings (150K-600K) this year compared to last. It will be interesting to see if most of the remaining cap space is accounted for by similar bonuses that we haven't tracked yet, or if there seems to be space remaining for someone who becomes available later in the signing period.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 4, 2018 1:26:46 GMT -5
Albert Feliz' deal is official and is listed as an OF.
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Post by jdb on Jul 4, 2018 8:08:15 GMT -5
There is definitely an emphasis on those mid tier signings (150K-600K) this year compared to last. It will be interesting to see if most of the remaining cap space is accounted for by similar bonuses that we haven't tracked yet, or if there seems to be space remaining for someone who becomes available later in the signing period. It’s almost like trading back in the NFL draft to get more bites at the apple. I could see the benefits of doing it this way. Still holding out hope for Victor though.
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Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Jul 4, 2018 9:57:21 GMT -5
Bumping with additional reported bonuses from Jesse Sanchez. Eduardo Lopez, of, Dominican Republic -- $1.15 million signing bonus Eduardo Vaughan, of, Panama -- $550,000 signing bonus Claudio Ochoa, rhp, Venezuela Naysbel Marcano, c, Venezuela -- $350,000 signing bonus Elio Prado, of, Venezuela Carlos Reyes, rhp, Dominican Republic -- $180,000 signing bonus Bryan Gonzalez, of, Dominican Republic. -- $500,000 signing bonus Gabriel Jackson, rhp, Dominican Republic -- $350,000 signing bonus Alixandri Alvarez, ss, Venezuela Efren Diaz, rhp, Venezuela Giancarlos Santana, cf, Dominican Republic -- $460,000 signing bonus Wikelman Gonzalez, rhp, Venezuela Luis Talavera, rhp, Venezuela Albert Feliz, 3b, Dominican Republic -- $400,000 Alex Zapate, if, Venezuela Andy Pena, c, Venezuela Bonuses reported so far -- $3,940,000 Space left with current pool -- $2,543,500 Space left up to the max -- $4,781,125 Where are the shortstops? In most years it seems that 1/2 the position players are listed as shortstops. Just one so far....
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 4, 2018 10:15:38 GMT -5
That was a good callout about the Padres. Isn’t this the type of stuff the MLB frowns on. Just happen to sign like ten guys for 300k when your restricted . It’s not like the GM has a great reputation.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 4, 2018 12:12:39 GMT -5
That was a good callout about the Padres. Isn’t this the type of stuff the MLB frowns on. Just happen to sign like ten guys for 300k when your restricted . It’s not like the GM has a great reputation. Depends on how highly rated those guys are. I think the Sox unexpectedly signed a couple of top 40 guys for less than they should have signed for.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 4, 2018 22:16:11 GMT -5
The Red Sox officially signed:
SS Imanol Contreras RHP Angel Bastardo OF Eduardo Lopez RHP Efren Diaz RHP Wilkelman Gonzalez RHP Gabriel Jackson C Naysbel Marcano RHP Carlos Reyes OF Albert Feliz SS Alixandri Alvarez 3B Alex Zapete CF Eduardo Vaughan OF Giancarlos Santana OF Bryan Gonzalez SS Axel James RHP Claudio Ochoa SS Eddinson Paulino C Andy Pena RHP Andres Ortuno CF Elio Prado SS Noelberth Romero
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Post by telson13 on Jul 4, 2018 23:15:49 GMT -5
The Red Sox officially signed: SS Imanol Contreras RHP Angel Bastardo OF Eduardo Lopez RHP Efren Diaz RHP Wilkelman Gonzalez RHP Gabriel Jackson C Naysbel Marcano RHP Carlos Reyes OF Albert Feliz SS Alixandri Alvarez 3B Alex Zapete CF Eduardo Vaughan OF Giancarlos Santana OF Bryan Gonzalez SS Axel James RHP Claudio Ochoa SS Eddinson Paulino C Andy Pena RHP Andres Ortuno CF Elio Prado SS Noelberth Romero I like the volume approach. I count 22, and with the VZ bonuses unannounced, there’s probably not much room left unless they make another deal.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 5, 2018 9:31:50 GMT -5
Oops, make that 21. I can’t imagine they have any space left though, since so many of their signings announced are over $300k.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 10:09:59 GMT -5
Oops, make that 21. I can’t imagine they have any space left though, since so many of their signings announced are over $300k. They very easily could have a lot of space left.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 5, 2018 11:31:44 GMT -5
Oops, make that 21. I can’t imagine they have any space left though, since so many of their signings announced are over $300k. They very easily could have a lot of space left. Well, I see 8 players with no listed bonuses from VZ, and $2.5M in space. Obviously, if those bonuses are mostly $75-150K, then you’re right. I get the sense that (since the lowest bonus listed is $180K) that’s not the case. But it could be, particularly given their strong VZ presence and maybe having feelers out on players who are more under-the-radar given geopolitical issues. I’m genuinely curious...where do you think those players slot? And what do you think they plan to do with those $? Trade for more and sign big (VVM?) Or continue a value approach?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 11:41:52 GMT -5
I guess they could have signed those guys for that much money, but I doubt they've signed that many guys for >$300k based solely on past practice. I think it's more likely that those players range from like $50k-$300k rather than all being in the $300k range they'd have to be in for the money to all be gone.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 5, 2018 11:45:19 GMT -5
They very easily could have a lot of space left. Well, I see 8 players with no listed bonuses from VZ, and $2.5M in space. Obviously, if those bonuses are mostly $75-150K, then you’re right. I get the sense that (since the lowest bonus listed is $180K) that’s not the case. But it could be, particularly given their strong VZ presence and maybe having feelers out on players who are more under-the-radar given geopolitical issues. I’m genuinely curious...where do you think those players slot? And what do you think they plan to do with those $? Trade for more and sign big (VVM?) Or continue a value approach? I don't want to speak for Chris, but my take is: Its impossible to tell at this point. I mean, there's virtually no available information on these new signees (VTsox would be all over it if there was). There's just no way to tell if they are 500K signees or 20K signees. If you forced me to guess, I'd say that the most recently added names are not of the 300K-500K variety as I'd guess these bonuses would be the first to leak to the likes of Jesse Sanchez and Ben Badler. I believe we were linked to Claudio Ochoa ahead of July 2, so perhaps he could have a midrange bonus? These are really just uninformed guesses though. We'll just have to wait and see. Without knowing how much space its left, we are then left guessing about their strategy this year and whether or not Mesa may be in play.
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