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2018 Red Sox Prospect Rankings
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 22, 2018 10:50:44 GMT -5
When's the last time our top prospect was as low as 83 on BA's list? Gotta be pre-Henry era, right? BA has their archives online back to 1990, and it doesn't look like ever: www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time/Previous lowest was Brad Baker, ranked #76 back in 2001. And that team had Dernell Stenson at #77 as well. EDIT: Just for perspective's sake though, they might've had the #1 prospect if Pablo Sandoval's awfulness and about 10 injuries hadn't forced their hand with Devers. The Red Sox 25-and-under list is arguably as good as it's ever been.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 22, 2018 10:52:16 GMT -5
When's the last time our top prospect was as low as 83 on BA's list? Great question. Per the wonderful www.thebaseballcube.com/prospects/ resource, heres top RS prospect in BA's rankings by year. They really have been on a great run, and the answer is... never. 2017: Benintendi, 1 2016: Moncada, 3 2015: Swihart, 17 2014: Bogaerts, 2 2013: Bogaerts, 8 2012: Middlebrooks, 51 2011: Kelly, 31/Iglesias, 52 (Kelly was traded that offseason, so he was tops on the RS list but was on the Pads by the time the top 100 came out. 2010: Westmoreland, 21 2009: Anderson, 17 2008: Buchholz, 4 2007: Ellsbury, 33 2006: Marte, 14/Lester, 22 (Marte was acquired and traded during that offseason) 2005: H. Ramirez, 10 2004: H. Ramirez, 39 2003: H. Ramirez, 19 2002: Seung Song, 60 (lol) 2001: Dernell Stenson, 77/Brad Baker, 76 (somehow Stenson was #1 on the Sox list, but Baker ranked higher on the top 100) 2000: Steve Lomasney, 50 1999: Stenson, 22 1998: Brian Rose, 22 1997: Garciaparra, 10 1996: Donnie Sadler, 28 1995: Garciaparra, 22 1994: Nixon, 13 1993: Frankie Rodriguez, 25 1992: Rodriguez, 9 1991: Vaughn, 10 (from this year backward, the top 100s have no correlation with the team lists. See below) 1990: Kevin Morton, 61/Scott Cooper, 68 (this year's list is weird. Morton was 5th on the RS list but the highest on the top 100. Eric Wedge, 9th on the RS list, was actually between Morton and Cooper. Strange.)
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Post by burythehammer on Jan 22, 2018 11:07:16 GMT -5
Huh, it's almost as if you can have a highly competitive major league club and a healthy farm system at the same time...
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 22, 2018 11:24:43 GMT -5
2002: Seung Song, 60 (lol) He's still pitching in the KBO!
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 22, 2018 13:08:56 GMT -5
BBA also released tool grades on everyone. Absolutely green with envy at some of the tools at the top. Acuña, Ohtani, and Vlad Jr. will be absolutely ridiculous if they can reach their potential.
On a Red Sox note, BBA has Groome’s FB and CB both with 60 grades. With the velocity of his FB much slower than reports during the draft, I would have expected to see the curve with a high grade. What’s the life like on his fastball?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 22, 2018 13:14:15 GMT -5
BBA also released tool grades on everyone. Absolutely green with envy at some of the tools at the top. Acuña, Ohtani, and Vlad Jr. will be absolutely ridiculous if they can reach their potential. On a Red Sox note, BBA has Groome’s FB and CB both with 60 grades. With the velocity of his FB much slower than reports during the draft, I would have expected to see the curve with a high grade. What’s the life like on his fastball? We've got four different scouting write-ups on him linked from his player page, which itself contains an updated scouting report: www.soxprospects.com/players/groome-jay.htm
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 22, 2018 14:07:07 GMT -5
Moniak didn't even make the Top 100 (he was #17 last year). Picking him over Senzel seemed weird to me at the time, and it's even nuttier given a year of hindsight.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 23, 2018 9:30:00 GMT -5
Law released his 1-50 rankings. Groome sits at 30, a drop from 20 last year. But that’s still considerably higher than most people have him. Law is still high on the curveball and optimistic after a full offseason of development and conditioning.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 25, 2018 9:56:55 GMT -5
Law’s list of 10 prospects that just missed his top 100 included Tanner Houck. Same reasons that everyone has doubts about him: reliever or starter? But if Houck pitches well in the first half of the season as a starter, then you’ll probably see him join Groome and Chavis in the latter half of top 100 rankings.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2018 10:15:17 GMT -5
Law’s list of 10 prospects that just missed his top 100 included Tanner Houck. Same reasons that everyone has doubts about him: reliever or starter? But if Houck pitches well in the first half of the season as a starter, then you’ll probably see him join Groome and Chavis in the latter half of top 100 rankings. To be clear, that last part is not from Law, and I'd actually say that's not what he's saying at all. He's saying he is a top 100 prospect if he "shows that he can start," which would mean: It's not a matter of success to start the year. He's likely to find success in A-ball with his current repertoire. It's a matter of developing a third pitch and better command, which Law calls below-average.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2018 10:43:43 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 28, 2018 12:07:31 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline releases their top 100 yesterday. Chavis lands at #79 and Groome at #85.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 28, 2018 13:35:45 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline releases their top 100 yesterday. Chavis lands at #79 and Groome at #85. As the resident Chavis honk I fully endorse this.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 1, 2018 12:22:03 GMT -5
Law's Top 17: 1. Jay Groome 2. Michael Chavis 3. Tanner Houck 4. Bryan Mata 5. Sam Travis 6. Alex Scherff 7. Jake Thompson 8. Cole Brannen 9. Travis Lakins 10. Darwinzon Hernandez 11. Mike Shawaryn 12. Nick Duron 13. Tyler Esplin 14. Josh Ockimey 15. Bobby Poyner 16. Danny Diaz 17. Joan Martinez Definitely some different picks here although we should expect at this point that its a bit of a free-for-all after #4 in the system. Some notes on his more interesting picks: Thompson - Came to Red Sox w/ plus changeup and a curveball that the Beavers discouraged him from throwing. Ability to get ground balls with sinker and miss bats with off-speed. Duron - Fastball back at 92-97. Short slider up to 87 and mid 80s changeup, both flashing above average or better. Not a lot of life on his FB which led to lack of Ks. Will need to mix pitches and avoid middle of plate with FB to advance. Esplin - Opened eyes with raw power and ability to drive all other way. Has right fielder's arm but his size might force move to 1B down the road. Poyner - High spin rate on FB helped to miss bats. Not a specialist w/ changeup as best off-speed pitch and reverse platoon splits last two years. Projecting as a solid middle reliever.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 1, 2018 12:56:09 GMT -5
| SP | BA | BP | KLaw | MLB | FG | 1 | Groome | Groome (83) | Groome | Groome (30) | Chavis (79) | | 2 | Chavis | Chavis (85) | Chavis | Chavis (76) | Groome (85) | | 3 | Mata | Houck | Mata | Houck (JM) | | | 4 | Houck | Mata | Houck | Mata | | | 5 | Travis | Brannen | Ockimey | Travis | | | 6 | Ockimey | D. Hernandez | Shawaryn | Scherff | | | 7 | Brannen | Travis | Brannen | Thompson | | | 8 | Shawaryn | Shawaryn | Scherff | Brannen | | | 9 | Scherff | Scherff | Cedrola | Lakins | | | 10 | Beeks | M. Hernandez | Travis | D. Hernandez | | | 11 | Johnson | | | Shawaryn | | | 12 | Chatham | | | Duron | | | 13 | Dalbec | | | Esplin | | | 14 | D. Hernandez | | | Ockimey | | | 15 | Raudes | | | Poyner | | | 16 | Thompson | | | Diaz | | | 17 | Diaz | | | J. Martinez | | | 18 | Lin | | | | | | 19 | Lakins | | | | | | 20 | Brentz | | | | | |
BA: Ockimey 11-20. Baldwin is "close" to top 15. Flores would have been between 3 and 5. Cedrola, Duron not in Top 30.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 1, 2018 13:12:20 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 1, 2018 17:37:24 GMT -5
One of the most interesting things about Law’s list of Red Sox prospects was his take on Travis Lakins. He has Lakins as having three potential above-average to plus pitches. I don’t know how consistent he is with those pitches at the moment, whether they just flash or what. But Law said his upside is a #2 starter. If he can just stay healthy this year, then he could really break out.
Also, Law says that Thompson has a different look and out pitch than before he was drafted. Anyone know what changed with his pitch repertoire?
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Post by ramireja on Feb 1, 2018 18:06:37 GMT -5
One of the most interesting things about Law’s list of Red Sox prospects was his take on Travis Lakins. He has Lakins as having three potential above-average to plus pitches. I don’t know how consistent he is with those pitches at the moment, whether they just flash or what. But Law said his upside is a #2 starter. If he can just stay healthy this year, then he could really break out. Also, Law says that Thompson has a different look and out pitch than before he was drafted. Anyone know what changed with his pitch repertoire?According to Law, he brought back a changeup and curveball that he used sparingly if at all at OSU....he was primarily a sinker/slider guy there. Of course you may have read that, so I apologize if you're asking whether anyone on the site can confirm that change to his pitch repertoire. Ian's look at Thompson from last year seems to confirm heavy use of a changeup that flashed average-to-better but was inconsistent, in addition to a curveball that looked like a work in progress during that look.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2018 8:58:25 GMT -5
Listening to the January 22nd Sox prospects podcast Chris Hatfield and Ian Condell we're talking about the Sox prospects rankings and other Publications rankings of Darwinzon Hernandez. Sox Prospects has him ranked at No.14 minor league baseball.com has him ranked at No.9 Keith Law hasn't ranked at number No. 10.Baseball America has him ranked at No.6. I find Hernandez a very intriguing arm for the 2018 season he may not contribute to the major league team but he could move fast through the minor league system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2018 10:20:41 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 5, 2018 12:52:50 GMT -5
One of the most interesting things about Law’s list of Red Sox prospects was his take on Travis Lakins. He has Lakins as having three potential above-average to plus pitches. I don’t know how consistent he is with those pitches at the moment, whether they just flash or what. But Law said his upside is a #2 starter. If he can just stay healthy this year, then he could really break out. Also, Law says that Thompson has a different look and out pitch than before he was drafted. Anyone know what changed with his pitch repertoire?According to Law, he brought back a changeup and curveball that he used sparingly if at all at OSU....he was primarily a sinker/slider guy there. Of course you may have read that, so I apologize if you're asking whether anyone on the site can confirm that change to his pitch repertoire. Ian's look at Thompson from last year seems to confirm heavy use of a changeup that flashed average-to-better but was inconsistent, in addition to a curveball that looked like a work in progress during that look. After reading that my question is why OSU, had him be a Sinker/Slider guy if he had a plus Change up?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2018 14:14:41 GMT -5
Fangraphs top 100 is out. Chavis at 95, Groome at 98. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/ | SP | BA | BP | KLaw | MLB | FG | 1 | Groome | Groome (83) | Groome (78) | Groome (30) | Chavis (79) | Chavis (95) | 2 | Chavis | Chavis (85) | Chavis | Chavis (76) | Groome (85) | Groome (98) | 3 | Mata | Houck | Mata | Houck (JM) | | | 4 | Houck | Mata | Houck | Mata | | | 5 | Travis | Brannen | Ockimey | Travis | | | 6 | Ockimey | D. Hernandez | Shawaryn | Scherff | | | 7 | Brannen | Travis | Brannen | Thompson | | | 8 | Shawaryn | Shawaryn | Scherff | Brannen | | | 9 | Scherff | Scherff | Cedrola | Lakins | | | 10 | Beeks | M. Hernandez | Travis | D. Hernandez | | | 11 | Johnson | | | Shawaryn | | | 12 | Chatham | | | Duron | | | 13 | Dalbec | | | Esplin | | | 14 | D. Hernandez | | | Ockimey | | | 15 | Raudes | | | Poyner | | | 16 | Thompson | | | Diaz | | | 17 | Diaz | | | J. Martinez | | | 18 | Lin | | | | | | 19 | Lakins | | | | | | 20 | Brentz | | | | | |
BA: Ockimey 11-20. Baldwin is "close" to top 15. Flores would have been between 3 and 5. Cedrola, Duron not in Top 30.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 5, 2018 19:39:53 GMT -5
Fangraphs has Groomed listed as: 55/55 fastball 55/65 curve ball
It seems the ceiling has fallen far from the potential "plus to better" fastball and potential "plus plus" curve ball reported a year ago (sox prospects July write up seems to align with this as well). What do you guys think accounts for the drop in his perceived ceiling?
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KB24
Rookie
Posts: 147
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Post by KB24 on Feb 8, 2018 11:27:45 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 8, 2018 11:50:20 GMT -5
Eh, I don't know if I agree with that conclusion. It's a "guys we like" thing with a few specific categories, not anything scientific. Are there guys who you think should have appeared on those lists in particular? Looking quickly, might've been a case for a Mata, Houck, or Darwinzon in the lower-level starting pitchers, but that was a list of 12 guys, and nobody comes to mind who should be on any of the other lists.
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