giltg
Veteran
When the eagle is silent , the parrots begin to jabber.
Posts: 274
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Post by giltg on Feb 22, 2018 15:14:57 GMT -5
From the stories going around that David Price convinced JD Martinez to come play in Boston kind of find it unlikely that he would opt out along with the reasons of his age in the money that's still on the table. As as far as Pomeranz if he uses his cutter like he did towards the end of the year where he had that good stretch I believe he'll be successful. I definitely give Pomeranz and Kimbrel a qualifying offer. Kimbrel definitely will command the 16 to 18 million dollars that the qualifying offer is and Pomeranz will be looking for a multi-year offer and won't accept the qualifying offer.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2018 16:31:06 GMT -5
Wow I think 10-15 percent chance of Price opting out is crazy high. Going into his age 33 season he'll have 4 years 127 million left on his deal. Even if he has a monster year, after his arm troubles who gives him a monster deal? After watching this years market why would he want to even try it? Kimbrel will get paid. Even the new CBA won't stop him from getting 70 or 80 million, not if he has a good year. Pomeranz is different. Next years free agent class is loaded. Unless a ton of rebuilding teams start to compete, he will most likely cost less than you think. Maybe if he really increases his innings he can come close to 120 to 140 million. Right now I see him more in the 5 years 90-100 million range. I wonder about offering him 5 years 80 million right now, given the market. Just that adds a ton of risk, he's still rather risky in my opinion. He also has a long injury history. At the same time I have no worries about Kimbrel long-term and would give him an extension right now if you wanted to keep him long-term. Well, it all depends on results. My Pomeranz projection is based on him doing what he did last year, again. That would allay some injury concerns (not sure where you get the long injury history from) about the forearm, and it defines him as basically a strong 2. With LA and NY back in the mix, I think he gets a deal a little less rich than Lester’s. The market has been volatile, so maybe you’re right, but 5/80 would be a bargain. That basically takes him to the end of historical performance plateau on a low-mileage arm. As for Price...idk. Does he have a 10% chance of finishing top-3 in the Cy? Cuz that’s probably what it would take for him to consider an opt-out. I agree that he’s highly unlikely to get $124M over four years, let alone 6, unless he throws 200 innings, has 220-230 Ks, a WHIP around 1, and wins 18+ games with an ERA/FIP under 3. If Price opts out and Hanley’s option vests, we’re probably looking at a 100-win WS team. His past injuries www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/03/20/durability-concerns-remain-for-drew-pomeranz/eNqcMQ2CUROeL007kUTArL/story.html
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Post by telson13 on Feb 22, 2018 22:24:00 GMT -5
Well, it all depends on results. My Pomeranz projection is based on him doing what he did last year, again. That would allay some injury concerns (not sure where you get the long injury history from) about the forearm, and it defines him as basically a strong 2. With LA and NY back in the mix, I think he gets a deal a little less rich than Lester’s. The market has been volatile, so maybe you’re right, but 5/80 would be a bargain. That basically takes him to the end of historical performance plateau on a low-mileage arm. As for Price...idk. Does he have a 10% chance of finishing top-3 in the Cy? Cuz that’s probably what it would take for him to consider an opt-out. I agree that he’s highly unlikely to get $124M over four years, let alone 6, unless he throws 200 innings, has 220-230 Ks, a WHIP around 1, and wins 18+ games with an ERA/FIP under 3. If Price opts out and Hanley’s option vests, we’re probably looking at a 100-win WS team. His past injuries www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/03/20/durability-concerns-remain-for-drew-pomeranz/eNqcMQ2CUROeL007kUTArL/story.htmlEh, the shoulder issue (surgical) I have some concern about long-term. The forearm/triceps stuff is more worrisome because it’s been somewhat recurrent, but he had no issues last year after wearing out at the end of ‘16. The wrist isn’t a concern to me. I guess my threshold for “extensive” is higher than yours. Certainly, the forearm/tendinitis issue is a real consideration. But again, my hypothetical presupposes a healthy, successful 2018. If not, that drastically changes the calculus. I think we’re probably in agreement that a recurrence of soft/connective tissue problems in his pitching arm makes an extension high-risk. To me, if he’s healthy for the second year in a row and has 185 or so innings with ‘17-type results, I’m a lot more amenable to extending him at reasonable cost. 5/80 would be a bargain for a 2.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2018 23:07:47 GMT -5
Never used the word "extensive", just long injury history, which I think he does. At the same time I would do 5 years 80 million if he repeats 2017 season and is fully healthy in 2018. I just want to see him do that, hence I wouldn't want to offer that right now.
Kimbrel vs Pomeranz is a great question if you can't keep both. I can see reasons to keep each one.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2018 2:49:33 GMT -5
Wow I think 10-15 percent chance of Price opting out is crazy high. Going into his age 33 season he'll have 4 years 127 million left on his deal. Even if he has a monster year, after his arm troubles who gives him a monster deal? After watching this years market why would he want to even try it? Kimbrel will get paid. Even the new CBA won't stop him from getting 70 or 80 million, not if he has a good year. Pomeranz is different. Next years free agent class is loaded. Unless a ton of rebuilding teams start to compete, he will most likely cost less than you think. Maybe if he really increases his innings he can come close to 120 to 140 million. Right now I see him more in the 5 years 90-100 million range. I wonder about offering him 5 years 80 million right now, given the market. Just that adds a ton of risk, he's still rather risky in my opinion. He also has a long injury history. At the same time I have no worries about Kimbrel long-term and would give him an extension right now if you wanted to keep him long-term. Whether it's 10-15 percent or 5-10 percent, it's not that important to argue about really. Either one of them aren't high percentage numbers. I don't want Price to opt out if he has a great year and proves he's healthy either. I hope he stays in Boston for a long time. At the same time, the reason why I picked Pomeranz is because Kimbrel has shown a tendency to walk more batters recently in his career and I don't think that's getting any better as he ages. The depth in the organization is more likely to cover a Kimbrel departure rather than a Pomeranz departure too. All pitching is risky when it comes to injuries, however Kimbrel might have a edge over staying healthy over Pomeranz. Still, I take the chance with a low mileage arm like Pomeranz if I'm the Sox. A lot of it has to do with 2018. If Kimbrel would take a 4 year extension after this season began, that'd be tempting to get done, but I'm sure he'll be willing to wait and get his 5 year deal after the season. I'm not going any higher than 5 years with either pitcher and I guess whoever took the 5 year deal might be the pitcher the Sox are willing to keep in the end most likely.
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