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2018 Hall of Fame vote debate
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 24, 2018 18:49:06 GMT -5
Damon would fall off the ballot with those results also.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 24, 2018 18:52:37 GMT -5
A real shame that Santana fell off. He was the best pitcher in baseball over a 5 or 6 year period, or at least no. 2 to Halladay.
Next year's ballot adds Lance Berkman, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Darren Oliver, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Juan Pierre, Mariano Rivera, Kevin Youkilis, and Michael Young. Halladay and Mo get in on the first ballot I'd presume. Helton and Pettitte will be interesting. Helton probably gets in at some point, maybe? Pettitte being an admitted steroids guy will keep him out for a while at least, and he feels borderline-ish to me anyway. I figure the 2019 class will be Halladay, Rivera, Edgar Martinez at least. I wonder if Mussina, Clemens, or Bonds could make a run at it, or if Helton and Pettitte will take up some of the votes freed up by 4 guys getting in this year.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 19:01:02 GMT -5
As in most Awards the snubs are always talked about first and maybe the most. For for me it's surprising that Johan Santana with two Cy Young Awards is off the ballot after 1 year. Johnny Damon is a player that deserved to be on the ballot but as far as being in the HOF maybe not. But it was nice for him to be considered. Maybe they should change that rule to where if after 3 years you don't get more than 5 to 10% then you're off the ballot.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 24, 2018 19:01:12 GMT -5
Bonds and Clemens vote numbers only rose by 3 percent of the vote. Larry Walker's vote total rose by 13 percent.
Huge step back for Clemens and Bonds despite their totals rising.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Jan 24, 2018 19:23:40 GMT -5
I find it harder and harder every year to take the Hall seriously.
That said, I'm glad Thome, Vlad, and Chipper got in.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 20:04:13 GMT -5
With Edgar Martinez falling 19 votes short of getting into the Hall of Fame he has one more year of eligibility left to get in Via BBWAA ballots. If if he in Fred McGriff fail in 2019 they will go to the veterans committee ballot in order to get into the Hall of Fame. And the 2019 Hall of Fame class may make it tough for these two players. Lance Berkman Roy Halladay Todd Helton Roy Oswalt Andy Pettite Mariano Rivera Michael Young
And Kevin Youkilis
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Post by jiant2520 on Jan 24, 2018 20:25:18 GMT -5
With Edgar Martinez falling 19 votes short of getting into the Hall of Fame he has one more year of eligibility left to get in Via BBWAA ballots. If if he in Fred McGriff fail in 2019 they will go to the veterans committee ballot in order to get into the Hall of Fame. And the 2019 Hall of Fame class may make it tough for these two players. Lance Berkman Roy Halladay Todd Helton Roy Oswalt Andy Pettite Mariano Rivera Michael Young And Kevin Youkilis If Johan Santana is out, no way Oswalt or Pettite should be considered, neither were better.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2018 20:37:30 GMT -5
Certainly not Oswalt, and I would be surprised if he gets more than a half-dozen votes. Great pitcher, just not a Hall of Famer. Pettitte was worse than Santana, but he was exceedingly durable. His career was very, very similar to Mark Buehrle's, and I think Buehrle will get a lot less support. What I'm most excited for is all the no-on-Clemens/Bonds voters who will tie themselves into logical knots to vote for Pettitte. Helton should be a Hall of Famer. I think he'll struggle to get support though, and be stuck somewhere in the McGriff-to-Walker range. Those OBPs are clear-HOF worthy. Back before I was doing SoxProspects stuff I did some personal blogging, and I did this thing where I basically rated all of the 1990-2005 era first basemen - Helton was basically even with Palmeiro, ahead of the McGwire/Giambi/McGriff grouping. JAWS and other metrics seem to agree with that. Rivera is an obvious first-ballot choice. And Halladay.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2018 20:56:41 GMT -5
In no way that I'm making the case for yankee to get into the Hall of Fame.The fact is that Andy pettitte had a great postseason record;
13 ALDS,1 NLDS, 9 ALCS,1 NLCS, 8 WS. Postseason stats 19wins 11 losses 44games 276.2 inn 3.81era
IMO Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff are going to have a hard time in their final year of eligibility with these new players in 2019.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 24, 2018 22:41:34 GMT -5
I don't see Pettite or Helton as HOF type players. One was never dominate and the other has a massive home and road split. Can you say Coors field? If Wagner and Rolen only get like 10%, those guys should be in danger of falling off. The Yankee love will help him though.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 25, 2018 0:12:03 GMT -5
Johan Santana: 2025 IP, 45 fWAR, 5-year peak of 29.9 fWAR Trevor Hoffman: 1089 IP, 26 fWAR, 5-year peak of 13.1 fWAR
What gets me is not so much that Hoffman got in, it's that among Hoffman voters there was near unanimity that Santana shouldn't get in. Seriously, at a minimum 97% of Hoffman voters didn't vote for Santana. That has to include at least some stat-oriented folks who presumably aren't wowed by all the 2- and 3-run leads Hoffman locked down in the 9th inning.
Another fun fact: Hoffman finished with the same career ERA- as Armando Benitez.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2018 3:45:08 GMT -5
There's still hope:
Ryan M. Spaeder Verified account @theaceofspaeder 6h6 hours ago
#Mariners Edgar Martinez finished with 70.4 percent of the vote.
Every ballplayer in baseball history to reach at least 65.0 percent on any given ballot in any given year is now a Hall of Famer.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 25, 2018 7:54:41 GMT -5
The sure thing first ballot hall of famer next year is Rivera. Halladay has a chance, I’d say even a good chance, of making it next year. I have to think that Edgar makes it next year.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jan 25, 2018 8:18:01 GMT -5
I would like to see Rivera, Mussina, and Martinez get selected next year. The extremely high levels of amphetamines in Halladay at the time of his death makes me wonder if he was taking during his career.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 25, 2018 9:22:24 GMT -5
The system is sooo broken. Everyone wanting to make a point with Bonds, Clemens, and even Schilling because they dislike him are really hurting the fringe guys. Heck it's hurting guys that should be locks like Scott Rolen, Wagner getting like 10% is funny. Either just vote in the hold overs or increase the amount you can vote for. Maybe change the 5% rule to you have to get a vote and at least 5 % in first 3 years.
Santana in my opinion is a borderline type guy. At the minimum he deserved 10 years of debate and a very good case could be made for him. In my book he's a HOF more than Pettite.
The steriod era is killing the HOF process. The HOF voters need to figure out Bonds, Clemens, Ramirez, Sosa and even Sheffield. It's just not fair to players like Santana.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2018 10:20:25 GMT -5
I don't see Pettite or Helton as HOF type players. One was never dominate and the other has a massive home and road split. Can you say Coors field? If Wagner and Rolen only get like 10%, those guys should be in danger of falling off. The Yankee love will help him though. Helton does have a very large split, but he still had a .386 OBP away from Coors. You're right that he is probably borderline. That said, I think he'll get enough votes to keep him on for a while, at least. On the one hand, the home/road split helps his numbers, but on the other... I hate penalizing a guy because of the fact he happened to play in Colorado.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2018 10:27:45 GMT -5
There's still hope: Ryan M. Spaeder Verified account @theaceofspaeder 6h6 hours ago #Mariners Edgar Martinez finished with 70.4 percent of the vote. Every ballplayer in baseball history to reach at least 65.0 percent on any given ballot in any given year is now a Hall of Famer. To expand the point further, 27 players have gotten 70 percent of the vote and not been elected. 22 were elected the next year, and the other five got in through the veterans committee. Three of them hit the mark in their final year of eligibility, so they couldn't have gone up. Jim Bunning got over 70% twice, but then started falling again. Frank Chance got over 70%, then got over again the next year, but in that year got elected (veterans' committee must've worked differently then). www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/1/24/16930908/hall-of-fame-ballot-2019-mariano-rivera-edgar-martinez-mike-mussinaLooks very good for Edgar, anyway. That SB Nation article wonders if Mussina will get enough of a bump as well to get in. Would be nice to get 4 guys in again and start clearing some of the logjam. 2020 is going to have a first-ballot guy in Jeter and not a ton else, at least on the first ballot (Abreu, Beckett, Eric Chavez, Dunn, Furcal, Giambi, Konerko, Cliff Lee, A. Soriano). 2020 might be the year for guys like Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 25, 2018 11:12:09 GMT -5
Getting ahead of myself, but... I'm interested to see what kind of looks Abreu and Giambi get. With the borderline candidates, there's always at least sort of a gut thing, right? Statistically, Abreu is better than a lot of the guys who have been inducted, but... I dunno. If you put in all of the borderline guys, then the borderline moves, right? I'm okay with Guerrero being in and Abreu being out. Giambi's peak was outstanding, but I don't think he produced enough value outside of that peak, and there are just too many better offense-first types that overlapped with him. Given the lack of support for McGwire, I figure Giambi will fall off the ballot. That's probably worse than Giambi deserves, but I won't lose sleep.
Eric Chavez feels like 100 years ago.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2018 12:09:42 GMT -5
With Giambi, his numbers are nearly identical to Sheffield's (which kind of feels about right, right?), so I think that's your comp, plus the fact that he's going to suffer even more from the "you were probably taking steroids" bias. Remember that year he shrank and everyone flipped out? With Abreu, his numbers are also very close to those two, although he hit for less power and stole more bases while playing a better defensive outfield. I'd put all three in the same boat and assume none will get in. I could definitely be wrong.
By the way, did Jonathan Papelbon ever officially retire? If he did, I missed it, but the BBHOF website showing future elgibles lists him for 2021 and explicitly mentions his retirement like it's a thing that happened.
EDIT: Forgot that Giambi admitted using PEDs in the Bonds trial. He's not getting in.
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Post by manfred on Jan 25, 2018 12:38:27 GMT -5
I can’t see Giambi or Abreu getting even a sniff. Giambi, of course, has the PED issue, but probably doesn’t deserve it anyway. He was a dominant player for a 5-7 year span (in a period of generally absurd offensive numbers), who eeked out 2,000 hits by hanging around. Abreu was a very good player for 6 teams, but never close to being discussed as one of the league’s best players.
Helton is tough. He reminds me of a thin-air Mattingly. The first half of the career seems so obviously Hall bound. The second half is not worthy, but gets some key career stats in range.
I am probably also an outlier on this board, because just as they used to say you don’t walk off the islands, I say you don’t walk into the HOF. Amassing a high OBP is good in the big picture, but it is just one piece of the puzzle.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 25, 2018 12:58:14 GMT -5
By the way, did Jonathan Papelbon ever officially retire? If he did, I missed it, but the BBHOF website showing future elgibles lists him for 2021 and explicitly mentions his retirement like it's a thing that happened. . There's a very good chance I'm wrong about this, but I think it doesn't matter whether a player officially retires - the clock starts at the end of the season of your last game, and restarts if you play in the majors again. Like, if someone goes to Spring Training in 2018 but calls it quits, they'd be on the 2023 ballot with the 2017 retirees, not 2024. That's why Schilling was on the 2013 ballot, even though he didn't technically retire until after the 2008 season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2018 13:39:38 GMT -5
By the way, did Jonathan Papelbon ever officially retire? If he did, I missed it, but the BBHOF website showing future elgibles lists him for 2021 and explicitly mentions his retirement like it's a thing that happened. . There's a very good chance I'm wrong about this, but I think it doesn't matter whether a player officially retires - the clock starts at the end of the season of your last game, and restarts if you play in the majors again. Like, if someone goes to Spring Training in 2018 but calls it quits, they'd be on the 2023 ballot with the 2017 retirees, not 2024. That's why Schilling was on the 2013 ballot, even though he didn't technically retire until after the 2008 season. I get this, but my point is that they write: "Save total ranked ninth all-time at the time of his retirement." And he's listed with the 2022 eligibles, not 2021, my bad. baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/future-eligiblesBut it's weird that they say "at the time of his retirement" when they could just not say that part and the sentence is the same.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2018 13:41:11 GMT -5
I can’t see Giambi or Abreu getting even a sniff. Giambi, of course, has the PED issue, but probably doesn’t deserve it anyway. He was a dominant player for a 5-7 year span (in a period of generally absurd offensive numbers), who eeked out 2,000 hits by hanging around. Abreu was a very good player for 6 teams, but never close to being discussed as one of the league’s best players. Helton is tough. He reminds me of a thin-air Mattingly. The first half of the career seems so obviously Hall bound. The second half is not worthy, but gets some key career stats in range. I am probably also an outlier on this board, because just as they used to say you don’t walk off the islands, I say you don’t walk into the HOF. Amassing a high OBP is good in the big picture, but it is just one piece of the puzzle. If walks were the only thing that led to having a high obp, then I might agree with you a little.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 25, 2018 18:59:17 GMT -5
I don't see Pettite or Helton as HOF type players. One was never dominate and the other has a massive home and road split. Can you say Coors field? If Wagner and Rolen only get like 10%, those guys should be in danger of falling off. The Yankee love will help him though. Helton does have a very large split, but he still had a .386 OBP away from Coors. You're right that he is probably borderline. That said, I think he'll get enough votes to keep him on for a while, at least. On the one hand, the home/road split helps his numbers, but on the other... I hate penalizing a guy because of the fact he happened to play in Colorado. His numbers overall are borderline, but when you add in the Coors field effect I just don't see it. I hate penalizing players for the park they play in, but I can't just overlook the Coors Field effect. It was just massive back in the day, but has gone down slightly in more recent years. Add in that Larry Walker was a better player, has an MVP and he can't get much over 20%. He might get the needed 5%, but it's going to be hard. Santana was more HOF worthy in my opinion. Would he even be close to a HOF player if he played his home games in any park other than Coors Field? I don't think so. It's a shame because Helton was good enough that he does deserve some time on the ballot, but the steriod back log is killing players like him.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 25, 2018 19:14:53 GMT -5
Can't believe Hoffman gets in over McGriff, Schilling, and Walker.
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