Andrew Benintendi--future all-star?

I wouldn't be surprised if he contended for a batting title or two down the road. Benintendi will improve. He'll have a season where he hits .320 with 25 homers, 45 doubles, and a slash line around .320/.400/.500.

I was thinking/hoping Fred Lynn circa 1975, but I think your young Greenwell comparison is apt.

It's easy to forget just how good Greenwell was in 1987 and 1988. He was a very worthy heir of Williams/Yaz/Rice at that time. He was a guy who could hit .320 with 20 homers. He actually was the steroid-free MVP of 1988 (unlike the guy who won the MVP award - Canseco).

He hurt his back in 1989 and he was never quite the same hitter. Afterwards he was a .290 - .300 hitter with 10 - 15 homerun power who could drive people nuts by swinging at the first pitch, and yes, his defense never was good - he smashed into Ellis Burks at one point I believe injuring Burks.

Greenwell reminded a little bit of Don Mattingly in his prime and Don Mattingly once his back started hurting (Mattingly lost his power too and was the same type of hitter as Greenwell).

I think Benintendi can be the 1987-88 type of hitter with better defense and more speed, and possibly he could develop power - the top projection would be Fred Lynn's 1979 season when he hit .333 to win the batting title and slammed 39 homers.

Last year AB had some struggles for extended stretches and still went 20-20 with very good K and BB rates. I think he’s likely to settle in the .300/.380-.400/.450-.550 range with improved consistency and better hitting off LH, with maybe 15-25 SB (especially with a fully healed LCL and a year of health there and better reads). I would not be remotely surprised if he had some peak years that look like vintage Mattingly (.330-.350-30-120 or so) with more Ks (the game has changed), but more walks. Swing-wise and size-wise, Mattingly is the closest como I can think of. I wouldn’t say I *expect* it, because that’s MVP territory, but I certainly think he’s capable of developing to that point. The hit tool is outstanding and he’s still quite young. I’ve said it before elsewhere, but I’m a firm believer in hit tool above all else...elite hitters (especially those willing to take walks and wait for their pitch) will often run into their share of HR in a “good” year.

To me, given that he’s so young and relatively inexperienced (2 yr of college vs 3), I think his floor is probably what we saw last year...i.e, 10th percentile outcome is he never improves. I’d say roughly what I put above (.280-.300/.360-.380/.475-.525) is 50%, and Votto with a little less power and slightly lower K/BB rates would be a 90-95th percentile outcome.

I’ll predict a healthy 2018 as .313/.401/.512 with 26 HR and 22 SB. I think he’ll run a single-digit positive DRS in LF and be a slight positive on the basepaths. I think his platoon splits vs LH will be roughly 100 points higher, too. I think that’s the first, most overt change we’ll see.

Holy cow. That seems strong. Three of the best hitters of my lifetime.

And... Gwynn stole 50+ bases one year, 40 another... I doubt Benny will do that.

All-star?

Maybe? But the competition of outfielders in AL is so great.

Stanton, Mookie, Trout, JBJ, Judge, Buxton, Upton, Kiermeir, and countless others who I can't probably think of.

He'll still be a great player regardless of the all-star game moniker either way.

Aaron Judge 2nd in MVP 2017 age 25

Mookie Betts 2nd in MVP 2016 2nd season age 23

Kris Bryant MVP 2016 2nd season age 24

Corey Seager 3rd in MVP 2nd season age 22

I don't think it's bullish to believe Benintendi can't compete and that it actually seems a possibility.

Comparing Benintendi to Betts, Bryant, Judge, and Seager is, almost by definition, bullish. Not impossible, no. But if you think Benintendi has talent like those four then you are bullish on him as a player. Bullish doesn't mean crazy-unreasonable or impossible. And I say this as someone who think Benintendi is "only" say a .300/.380/.480 4.5 WAR-type player in 2018 who gets a few down-ballot MVP votes. I think he's really good!

 Before last year who would have thought Judge had that type of season in him, he was never that great in the minors? Benny arguably had a better age 22/23 season while playing in Boston than Judge did at the same age playing single A. So I have to ask, who will end up having a better career? I don't think you can say definitively that Judge will, I happen to think he won't. I really really hope he ends up being a one year wonder, for obvious reasons.
 Benny was the national player of the year in both high school and college, I think we should be bullish!!! 
 

Yaz hit .187 vs lhp in 1966

Yaz is a HOF though...... Bringing that example to the table isn't good for comparison sake, unless you think Benintendi is HOF. Which again, is bullish as has many has used this term when comparing Benintendi to elite level ballplayers.

Benintendi will very likely put up All Star Quality numbers over his career. Not many 21 year olds start on a contender and produce like he did. I think we've been spoiled by the Trout, Betts, Lindor types.

That said. I could totally see Benintendi being a guy who gets overlooked because his value comes from being well rounded. Pretty good fielding outfielder in a corner, with a 60 bat and 55 defense.

That's a really good player but one that folks miss due to their numbers not being sexy. I think comps are by their nature kind of dumb, but instead of talking about Boggs or Brett, I think Benintendi looks more like Alex Gordon with more power and less defense.

That's a really good player.