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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 19, 2018 2:46:40 GMT -5
So with the trade of Herrera, I wonder if that set the market or it was a completely different trade on it's own.
My hopes went up a little I have to admit to acquiring a Brad Brach type of reliever this coming July, but we will have to see about that.
The Sox don't have a lot of assets to dangle. So they have to get the right reliever for a good cost this season again. I say again because the Sox did this with Addison Reed last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 9:01:56 GMT -5
So with the trade of Herrera, I wonder if that set the market or it was a completely different trade on it's own. My hopes went up a little I have to admit to acquiring a Brad Brach type of reliever this coming July, but we will have to see about that. The Sox don't have a lot of assets to dangle. So they have to get the right reliever for a good cost this season again. I say again because the Sox did this with Addison Reed last year. I like your Ramos idea and as far as relievers go I like Britton as the lefty and my top choice at this point for righty would be Soria from the ChiSox. Wish they had the money/prospects to get these guys. As rentals they shouldn't cost a ton, but the Sox are bumping right up against the cap. They might have room for either Ramos or Soria and squeeze under the limit. Can't see them improving both relief pitching and catching.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2018 9:29:36 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jun 19, 2018 9:45:39 GMT -5
It’s a bad idea to put any reliance on the possibility that Buttrey or Jerez can step in and give you quality high-leverage relief innings this year.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jun 19, 2018 9:50:06 GMT -5
I see multiple posters labeling guys like Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, and Heath Hembree as mediocre. While I agree that Heath Hembree is really nothing more than a sixth inning guy, I think all of these guys are being used out of their ideal places. This is just my lowly opinion but I think Joe Kelly has been fine, and Matt Barnes shouldn't be the 8th inning guy, but hes surely a perfectly fine 7th inning reliever. Guys are saying that they are no Zach Britton, they're no Kelvin Herrera etc etc. Of course not, those are Elite established closers and not every team can line Up 3 or 4 elite established closers in the bullpen. It's confusinng because I'd like someone to explain to me what exactly Joe Kelly has done wrong this year? Every team around the league blows leads, but it doesn't seem like that has been a problem with this team despite the fact that Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith aren't with the team anyway.
I hate to be the guy that says look at our record, but look at our record. We are above the middle of the pack in blown saves and blown leads, ahead of some teams with "Elite bullpens". We are at the top of the Heat and Bullpen era + batting average allowed. Of course, ideally it would be great to have jeurys Familia followed by Zach Britton, and having Kimbrel close it out but it's wrong to suggest those guys at the expense of what our guys are doing at the moment. Which from all the numbers, and the record looks to be like they're doing just fine as it is. Maybe add a quality lefty.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2018 9:52:44 GMT -5
You'll note within the article that Ian even says they're not guys who can step into the late innings for you unless things change with both. As I've said repeatedly, the Red Sox have great depth in terms of guys who could pitch the middle innings (which sounds like faint praise, but hey, it's not a bad thing). But I don't think their Jordan Hicks is sitting down there or anything.
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Post by danredhawk on Jun 19, 2018 12:10:17 GMT -5
Assuming Steven Wright continues to pitch near the level he has to date, than the starting pitching for the Red Sox down the stretch and into the playoffs will be as good as anyone's. That should help the bullpen in all the typical ways, but also as far as the arms that find themselves coming out of the pen in the post-season. You're looking at what you currently have, plus potentially adding a (hopefully/eventually) healthy Tyler Thornburg and Drew Pomeranz, as well as an odd man out of the rotation Eduardo Rodriguez. I'm not sure the Bullpen is the biggest need if they have a chance to run this group out there in the post-season (though I certainly understand the two question marks still rehabbing)...
Kimbrel Kelly Barnes Thornburg Rodriguez Pomeranz Hembree Workman
I still think there is the possibility of adding someone, but I'm not sure they break the bank to bring in a second closer type reliever. If Pomeranz can get healthy and showcase velocity out of the bullpen, Rodriguez continues to pitch well and Thornburg (and he was throwing really well prior to his last outing) gets back close to what he was they're in pretty good shape. I think the bigger concern is adding offense off the bench or lengthening the line-up.
I'd much rather see them zero in on Realmuto. He's affordable for Boston, would be here for the next three years and would dramatically lengthen the line-up and upgrade offense at the C position. While he's affordable for Boston, he's getting expensive for Miami as he's into his arb years. Perhaps they'd be interested in a cheaper alternative in Vazquez, along with a former top-prospect in Swihart or a back-end starter in Johnson and a couple of non-top four prospects...
That is the trade that, too me, can turn this team into a really deep and well-rounded favorite. If you add Realmuto and, eventually Pedroia, then suddenly a line-up with a few holes at the bottom turns into a balanced group. With JBJ being the only real question mark. Add Pedroia and Realmuto to the bottom third and imagine what type of run production Betts would then be capable of at the top...
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 19, 2018 12:53:54 GMT -5
So with the trade of Herrera, I wonder if that set the market or it was a completely different trade on it's own. My hopes went up a little I have to admit to acquiring a Brad Brach type of reliever this coming July, but we will have to see about that. The Sox don't have a lot of assets to dangle. So they have to get the right reliever for a good cost this season again. I say again because the Sox did this with Addison Reed last year. I like your Ramos idea and as far as relievers go I like Britton as the lefty and my top choice at this point for righty would be Soria from the ChiSox. Wish they had the money/prospects to get these guys. As rentals they shouldn't cost a ton, but the Sox are bumping right up against the cap. They might have room for either Ramos or Soria and squeeze under the limit. Can't see them improving both relief pitching and catching. Brach is making a little over 5 million this year. Which equates to around 2.5-3 million right now. If you traded Leon to the Rays to get Ramos back, the Sox would be assuming 2-3.5 million right now. It's manageable to get both and stay under. Ramos is down with a shoulder injury too, so he's out as a option imo.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 13:14:39 GMT -5
I like your Ramos idea and as far as relievers go I like Britton as the lefty and my top choice at this point for righty would be Soria from the ChiSox. Wish they had the money/prospects to get these guys. As rentals they shouldn't cost a ton, but the Sox are bumping right up against the cap. They might have room for either Ramos or Soria and squeeze under the limit. Can't see them improving both relief pitching and catching. Brach is making a little over 5 million this year. Which equates to around 2.5-3 million right now. If you traded Leon to the Rays to get Ramos back, the Sox would be assuming 2-3.5 million right now. It's manageable to get both and stay under. Ramos is down with a shoulder injury too, so he's out as a option imo. Wilson Ramos is down with a shoulder injury? I thought he played yesterday. I thought the Sox were at 234 million and couldn't spend much more than 3 million before hitting the limit? I honestly think the Sox do ultimately come away with Brach. I like him, but I don't really trust him. I think his control desserts him at times and watching relievers go 3-2 constantly on batters drives me nuts. I'd prefer Soria who has better control, but he might be too expensive. Actually I prefer Britton more the most as far as relievers go, but I think his $ is too high for them to get and stay under. It stinks that the Sox might lose guys like Buttrey and/or Poyner and/or Shawaryn. I think Poyner can be a very useful piece in the Sox pen starting next season (I mean by not getting jerked up and down a bunch of times) and Shawayrn, I think, is better than a lot of people think. I hold out hope he can be a mid-rotation starter. I actually like him better than Beeks, who I also like, and think could be a Porcello replacement down the road or a very useful piece out of the bullpen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2018 13:18:37 GMT -5
I look at a bullpen acquisition this way.
While Jerez and particularly Buttrey, and yeah add Poyner to the mix, can help the Sox bullpen and be a viable reliever, the Sox as jmei and Chris pointed out, need more certainty at this point.
This is hardly analytical, but if you look at the bullpen totem pole you get:
Kimbrel Kelly Barnes _______
Hembree Workman Velazquez
They're all decent to good to great relievers. I put the dividing line as to where the leverage situations divide, meaning you're more likely to see Kelly and Barnes in a tight game than Hembree or Workman who usually pitch when the Sox need length or are losing.
They want somebody on the totem pole that is certainly above Barnes and perhaps above Kelly. Come playoff time that's kind of a necessity.
As well as Kelly and Barnes have pitched, they have struggled against Houston and New York, and if you want to win the pennant/Series, you're going to have go through at least one of those teams.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 19, 2018 13:32:59 GMT -5
Brach is making a little over 5 million this year. Which equates to around 2.5-3 million right now. If you traded Leon to the Rays to get Ramos back, the Sox would be assuming 2-3.5 million right now. It's manageable to get both and stay under. Ramos is down with a shoulder injury too, so he's out as a option imo. Wilson Ramos is down with a shoulder injury? I thought he played yesterday. No sorry, I thought you were talking about AJ Ramos from this thread. My apologies.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 19, 2018 18:47:22 GMT -5
The 1st move DD should make is extend Kimbrel & then go get Kyle Barraclough from Miami. I saw barraclough throw the other night and he got the job done, but the stuff was not electric.
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Post by jdb on Jun 20, 2018 8:34:47 GMT -5
Should we be talking about Pomeranz here too? He’s had success in a relief role albeit a few years ago. If Thronburg can get back we maybe okay here.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2018 8:42:45 GMT -5
Should we be talking about Pomeranz here too? He’s had success in a relief role albeit a few years ago. If Thronburg can get back we maybe okay here. Hard to bank on either pitcher. Pomeranz has had health issues all season long and his fastball barely breaks 80. Thornburg's control hasn't been the greatest and last I checked his ERA was over 4.5 at Pawtucket. I wouldn't want either pitcher in a high leverage situation. The Sox have plenty of depth to fill out the bullpen - that's no issue. They have quality and quantity to choose from, but none of those guys would be high leverage guys. I would think they'd aim for somebody who would be higher leverage than Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes - a secondary closer/fireman (their own Andrew Miller role).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 20, 2018 9:01:55 GMT -5
Should we be talking about Pomeranz here too? He’s had success in a relief role albeit a few years ago. If Thronburg can get back we maybe okay here. Hard to bank on either pitcher. Pomeranz has had health issues all season long and his fastball barely breaks 80. Thornburg's control hasn't been the greatest and last I checked his ERA was over 4.5 at Pawtucket. I wouldn't want either pitcher in a high leverage situation. The Sox have plenty of depth to fill out the bullpen - that's no issue. They have quality and quantity to choose from, but none of those guys would be high leverage guys. I would think they'd aim for somebody who would be higher leverage than Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes - a secondary closer/fireman (their own Andrew Miller role). Yeap all of this is right. I'm honestly hoping that Poyner actually stays in his next recall back to the majors. He actually could profile as a really good option, I'd think. I have no faith in Workman, Hembree, Johnson, Velazquez, or anything else they have at AAA this year (this includes Thornburg) in high leverage. Maybe Pomeranz has a outside decent shot of being good if his velocity rises out of the bullpen, but Pomeranz isn't exactly a strike thrower to begin with even when he's right. The question for me is if the Sox don't need one bullpen arm, I'm asking myself if they need two outside of the organization bullpen arms.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2018 11:32:25 GMT -5
Should we be talking about Pomeranz here too? He’s had success in a relief role albeit a few years ago. If Thronburg can get back we maybe okay here. Hard to bank on either pitcher. Pomeranz has had health issues all season long and his fastball barely breaks 80. Thornburg's control hasn't been the greatest and last I checked his ERA was over 4.5 at Pawtucket. I wouldn't want either pitcher in a high leverage situation. The Sox have plenty of depth to fill out the bullpen - that's no issue. They have quality and quantity to choose from, but none of those guys would be high leverage guys. I would think they'd aim for somebody who would be higher leverage than Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes - a secondary closer/fireman (their own Andrew Miller role). His fastball barely breaks 80? Or did you mean 90?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2018 11:40:00 GMT -5
Hard to bank on either pitcher. Pomeranz has had health issues all season long and his fastball barely breaks 80. Thornburg's control hasn't been the greatest and last I checked his ERA was over 4.5 at Pawtucket. I wouldn't want either pitcher in a high leverage situation. The Sox have plenty of depth to fill out the bullpen - that's no issue. They have quality and quantity to choose from, but none of those guys would be high leverage guys. I would think they'd aim for somebody who would be higher leverage than Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes - a secondary closer/fireman (their own Andrew Miller role). His fastball barely breaks 80? Or did you mean 90? Yes, 90. Thanks for the correction.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2018 11:49:51 GMT -5
I have no idea what it would take to get these guys, but here are interesting names having great years (I basically sorted relief pitchers by SIERA and picked guys close to 30 or over who aren't too expensive or in a playoff race):
Adam Ottavino (age 32, last year of a 3/$10M contract, striking out 45.5% of players this year) Colorado Richard Rodriguez (several years of control left, but is 28. 11 yes 11 K/BB) Pittsburgh Tony Watson (6.67 K/BB, 2/$7 million+player option) Giants - they aren't too far out of the playoff race yet so we'll see by the end of July Craig Stamman (age 34, 6.5 K/BB, 2/$4.5 million) Padres Blake Treinen (age 30 in a few days, 2 years of control, $2.2M, 4.3 K/BB) A's
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2018 11:53:40 GMT -5
Hard to bank on either pitcher. Pomeranz has had health issues all season long and his fastball barely breaks 80. Thornburg's control hasn't been the greatest and last I checked his ERA was over 4.5 at Pawtucket. I wouldn't want either pitcher in a high leverage situation. The Sox have plenty of depth to fill out the bullpen - that's no issue. They have quality and quantity to choose from, but none of those guys would be high leverage guys. I would think they'd aim for somebody who would be higher leverage than Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes - a secondary closer/fireman (their own Andrew Miller role). Yeap all of this is right. I'm honestly hoping that Poyner actually stays in his next recall back to the majors. He actually could profile as a really good option, I'd think. I have no faith in Workman, Hembree, Johnson, Velazquez, or anything else they have at AAA this year (this includes Thornburg) in high leverage. Maybe Pomeranz has a outside decent shot of being good if his velocity rises out of the bullpen, but Pomeranz isn't exactly a strike thrower to begin with even when he's right. The question for me is if the Sox don't need one bullpen arm, I'm asking myself if they need two outside of the organization bullpen arms.I don't necessarily disagree. In a perfect world you get an impact lefty and an impact righty with both pitchers above Joe Kelly on the bullpen totem pole. But in reality, how do you do that without depleting your farm system and more likely going over the luxury tax limit? It seems to me the expiring free agents that are the best cost the most $. And a lot of the ones that don't aren't necessarily better than Barnes and Kelly. I mean, I'd love to see Britton as the late inning lefty and Soria or Familia as the late inning righty. I'm talking both high leverage options in front of Kimbrel knocking Kelly and Barnes down and Hembree out. But I don't see how they afford two of that ilk, let alone the prospect cost. As it is, as much as I want to see the Sox upgrade the pen, I do worry about who goes back in a deal. I know there's really no untouchables, but we all have our binkies, or at least I do. I think the #1 candidate to get traded for a reliever will be a guy I really hate to see the Sox give up - Mike Shawaryn. I mean if you're another team dangling one of the best relievers out there, who would you ask for? There are 3 upper level candidates you figure would be targets of other teams, Beeks, Poyner, and Shawaryn. Honestly I'd hate to give up any of those three. I'd rather see guys like Hembree, Johnson, Swihart (if they refuse to catch him), Buttrey, and Jerez go from the upper levels. I also like Ockimey and hope they hang onto him, but he could go. I'm less attached to the lottery type arms like Hernandez. Although I would hope the Sox hold onto Mata - I want to see if his control issues are now a thing or if it's a temporary type of thing. So for a reliever, I'm not as concerned about do the Sox have players to make a deal work as I am concerned about them thinning out too much of the upper levels as I do believe Shawaryn and Beeks are candidates to replace Porcello should he leave after next season and I think Poyner could become a mainstay of the bullpen starting next season. I ultimately think the bigger issue is that the Sox run up against the luxury tax limit. And they do have other needs as well, although they shouldn't be as costly. I think they need to beef up their bench, a complement for JBJ could be useful (I'd like Adam Jones for that type of role, but he's too expensive and probably wouldn't come anyways and no I wouldn't trade JBJ for Jones outright), and if they ever would dare, I'd like to see them deal Leon plus some pieces to rent Wilson Ramos.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 20, 2018 21:41:25 GMT -5
It’s a bad idea to put any reliance on the possibility that Buttrey or Jerez can step in and give you quality high-leverage relief innings this year. Scouting Scratch write up seems to like Buttery a lot. Downside is that he has command/control issues but so do Barnes and Kelly. Is there a chance that they bring him up soon and see what he's got prior to the trade deadline? Probably not.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 20, 2018 21:45:35 GMT -5
Yeap all of this is right. I'm honestly hoping that Poyner actually stays in his next recall back to the majors. He actually could profile as a really good option, I'd think. I have no faith in Workman, Hembree, Johnson, Velazquez, or anything else they have at AAA this year (this includes Thornburg) in high leverage. Maybe Pomeranz has a outside decent shot of being good if his velocity rises out of the bullpen, but Pomeranz isn't exactly a strike thrower to begin with even when he's right. The question for me is if the Sox don't need one bullpen arm, I'm asking myself if they need two outside of the organization bullpen arms.I don't necessarily disagree. In a perfect world you get an impact lefty and an impact righty with both pitchers above Joe Kelly on the bullpen totem pole. But in reality, how do you do that without depleting your farm system and more likely going over the luxury tax limit? It seems to me the expiring free agents that are the best cost the most $. And a lot of the ones that don't aren't necessarily better than Barnes and Kelly. I mean, I'd love to see Britton as the late inning lefty and Soria or Familia as the late inning righty. I'm talking both high leverage options in front of Kimbrel knocking Kelly and Barnes down and Hembree out. But I don't see how they afford two of that ilk, let alone the prospect cost. As it is, as much as I want to see the Sox upgrade the pen, I do worry about who goes back in a deal. I know there's really no untouchables, but we all have our binkies, or at least I do. I think the #1 candidate to get traded for a reliever will be a guy I really hate to see the Sox give up - Mike Shawaryn. I mean if you're another team dangling one of the best relievers out there, who would you ask for? There are 3 upper level candidates you figure would be targets of other teams, Beeks, Poyner, and Shawaryn. Honestly I'd hate to give up any of those three. I'd rather see guys like Hembree, Johnson, Swihart (if they refuse to catch him), Buttrey, and Jerez go from the upper levels. I also like Ockimey and hope they hang onto him, but he could go. I'm less attached to the lottery type arms like Hernandez. Although I would hope the Sox hold onto Mata - I want to see if his control issues are now a thing or if it's a temporary type of thing. So for a reliever, I'm not as concerned about do the Sox have players to make a deal work as I am concerned about them thinning out too much of the upper levels as I do believe Shawaryn and Beeks are candidates to replace Porcello should he leave after next season and I think Poyner could become a mainstay of the bullpen starting next season. I ultimately think the bigger issue is that the Sox run up against the luxury tax limit. And they do have other needs as well, although they shouldn't be as costly. I think they need to beef up their bench, a complement for JBJ could be useful (I'd like Adam Jones for that type of role, but he's too expensive and probably wouldn't come anyways and no I wouldn't trade JBJ for Jones outright), and if they ever would dare, I'd like to see them deal Leon plus some pieces to rent Wilson Ramos. Yeah the Sox aren't going over the 237 mark. I'm holding out hope for Poyner to come up and be a impact guy. I'm also hoping that the Sox trade Hembree to bring in someone with more upside.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 2, 2018 22:06:59 GMT -5
So to me Soria and Brach are the two top arms the Sox are able to acquire this deadline imo.
Discussed this in a GDT minor league thread, but if you trade Pomeranz, you can easily acquire either one of these arms and stay under the 237 mark. The prospect cost should be minimal for both of these arms knowing what Herrera got on the market. Both are rentals.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 2, 2018 22:24:56 GMT -5
You could gamble and take Zach Britton, but his fastball is down 3 mph (so far this year). He also makes a little under 6 million AAV wise the rest of the way.
You would be gambling that he'd find his velocity later in the year as he gains strength, but again a gamble given his Achilles injury ealier this season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 3, 2018 23:29:28 GMT -5
Just to expand on the idea of the GDT of the Nationals, the Nationals if they become sellers, have a ton of rental relievers available.
Tim Collins (league minimum)
Kelvim Herrera 8 million AAV wise (owed around 3.5 million the rest of the year)
Shawn Kelly 5 million AAV wise in 2018 (owed around 2 million the rest of the year)
They also have Sean Doolittle, but he has team options and I doubt they want to get rid of him because of the team control on him. He's having a elite season too for them.
Add these names on the list (except for Doolittle) if the Nationals keep sputtering until the trade deadline (or in the case of Herrera readd him him to the list).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2018 0:40:13 GMT -5
So updated reliever trade lists. I'm going to list guys who have one or two year deals at most and shouldn't cost a fortune to acquire (prospect wise)-
Shane Green Brad Brach Joakim Soria Zach Britton Craig Stamen Addison Reed Jeurys Familia
On the bubble (depending on their team's success in July)- Kelvim Herrera Tim Collins Shaun Kelly Adam Ottavino Tony Watson
Guys with multiple years who could cost a lot in trade (I wouldn't put it past Dombrowski to trade someone like Chavis to go get someone like this). Brad Hand Richard Rodriguez Blake Treinen Sean Doolittle Raisel Iglesias Adam Conley (this might be the guy the Sox were scouting with the Marlins in that trade report, in fact this might be a guy a lot of teams are scouting right now trying to gather information on)
If anyone has any free time, they might want to look up Adam Conley. The guy is 28 years old and just broke out this year. He looks like he could be the next Andrew Miller type of arm out of the bullpen. He has a fastball in relief that averages 95 mph and he's left handed. Big arm.
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