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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2018 15:42:28 GMT -5
If I had to guess, Familia and Soria are the two best options for the Sox this year as trade targets at the trade deadline.
Both are owed something around 3.75 million the rest of the season. A Drew Pomeranz trade could free up money to get either player if you have the prospects to get either player.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 5, 2018 10:55:36 GMT -5
So updated reliever trade lists. I'm going to list guys who have one or two year deals at most and shouldn't cost a fortune to acquire (prospect wise)- Shane Green Brad Brach Joakim Soria Zach Britton Craig Stamen Addison Reed Jeurys Familia On the bubble (depending on their team's success in July)- Kelvim Herrera Tim Collins Shaun Kelly Adam Ottavino Tony Watson Guys with multiple years who could cost a lot in trade (I wouldn't put it past Dombrowski to trade someone like Chavis to go get someone like this). Brad Hand Richard Rodriguez Blake Treinen Sean Doolittle Raisel Iglesias Adam Conley (this might be the guy the Sox were scouting with the Marlins in that trade report, in fact this might be a guy a lot of teams are scouting right now trying to gather information on) If anyone has any free time, they might want to look up Adam Conley. The guy is 28 years old and just broke out this year. He looks like he could be the next Andrew Miller type of arm out of the bullpen. He has a fastball in relief that averages 95 mph and he's left handed. Big arm. I think it's Kyle Barraclough. He'd be a great addition to the Red Sox Pen. If Thornburg doesn't work out this is the guy the Red Sox should go get.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2018 11:08:28 GMT -5
So updated reliever trade lists. I'm going to list guys who have one or two year deals at most and shouldn't cost a fortune to acquire (prospect wise)- Shane Green Brad Brach Joakim Soria Zach Britton Craig Stamen Addison Reed Jeurys Familia On the bubble (depending on their team's success in July)- Kelvim Herrera Tim Collins Shaun Kelly Adam Ottavino Tony Watson Guys with multiple years who could cost a lot in trade (I wouldn't put it past Dombrowski to trade someone like Chavis to go get someone like this). Brad Hand Richard Rodriguez Blake Treinen Sean Doolittle Raisel Iglesias Adam Conley (this might be the guy the Sox were scouting with the Marlins in that trade report, in fact this might be a guy a lot of teams are scouting right now trying to gather information on) If anyone has any free time, they might want to look up Adam Conley. The guy is 28 years old and just broke out this year. He looks like he could be the next Andrew Miller type of arm out of the bullpen. He has a fastball in relief that averages 95 mph and he's left handed. Big arm. I think it's Kyle Barraclough. He'd be a great addition to the Red Sox Pen. If Thornburg doesn't work out this is the guy the Red Sox should go get. Barraclough's 15.3% K-BB% would rank 8th on the Red Sox for relief pitchers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 15:25:16 GMT -5
I can't say I've ever heard of using K%-BB% as a real stat.
The walks are way too high, for sure, but he's been better with that as of late. It's all about what the cost is, right?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2018 15:55:45 GMT -5
I can't say I've ever heard of using K%-BB% as a real stat. The walks are way too high, for sure, but he's been better with that as of late. It's all about what the cost is, right? I think K-BB% is one of the best peripheral stats. It gets both K's and BB's in context with each other and it's not a counting stat. And usually the pitchers with the best K-BB% are the best pitchers. I find it better than K/BB because for that stat, you get way too much credit for low walks if you don't strike out a lot of guys. If you prefer, Barraclaugh has a 3.67 SIERA which is worse than just about everyone in Boston's bullpen, including Brian Johnson. Given that he's a "closer" getting saves and has an elite ERA because of a .141 BABIP, he'll probably cost more than he's worth. I'm much more interested in Conley if anyone.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 17:03:14 GMT -5
I can't say I've ever heard of using K%-BB% as a real stat. The walks are way too high, for sure, but he's been better with that as of late. It's all about what the cost is, right? I'm much more interested in Conley if anyone. Given Dombrowski's track record, it wouldn't surprise me to see him throw the kitchen sink to go get Conley. There's very few videos on Conley this year on MLB.com, but the very few ones there is showing him, it shows him getting out of a bases loaded jams with one out in the 7th innings. Really high leverage stuff. Like I could see people having a huge problem with a trade like this, but if you traded say two top 5 prospects in this system for him, I could see the Sox still coming really close or even winning that trade value wise. Conley looks legit as they come.
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Post by jdb on Jul 5, 2018 17:46:42 GMT -5
Hypothetical here. We’ve heard Dom tip toe around the luxury tax saying they’d prefer to stay under but they would go over in the right situation. Say if a Colorado wants a pure salary dump (outside of the top 10-15 or so) on Wade Davis or SF from Melancone would you take the penalty knowing you were set at closer next season and would gain an extra pick from Kimbrel?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 17:56:34 GMT -5
Hypothetical here. We’ve heard Dom tip toe around the luxury tax saying they’d prefer to stay under but they would go over in the right situation. Say if a Colorado wants a pure salary dump (outside of the top 10-15 or so) on Wade Davis or SF from Melancone would you take the penalty knowing you were set at closer next season and would gain an extra pick from Kimbrel? I wouldn't personally. I haven't been paying attention to Davis or Melancone this year, but I know Davis had declining velocity the past couple of years. Melancone was not a good fit here when he was younger and probably better than he is now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 5, 2018 18:00:15 GMT -5
I'm much more interested in Conley if anyone. Given Dombrowski's track record, it wouldn't surprise me to see him throw the kitchen sink to go get Conley. There's very few videos on Conley this year on MLB.com, but the very few ones there is showing him, it shows him getting out of a bases loaded jams with one out in the 7th innings. Really high leverage stuff. Like I could see people having a huge problem with a trade like this, but if you traded say two top 5 prospects in this system for him, I could see the Sox still coming really close or even winning that trade value wise. Conley looks legit as they come. What? There isn't much video because he's pitched all of 19 innings, with a .189 BAbip. Yet you want to trade two of Chavis, Mata, Houck, Casas, or Groome for him? Better chance that turns into the Varitek and Lowe trade, just in reverse, than we win it. That's right up there with the Yankees really wanting Kahnle last year, including good prospects to get him. Never trust one good half year of a reliever and certainly not 19 innings with a crazy low average on balls in play.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 18:45:16 GMT -5
Given Dombrowski's track record, it wouldn't surprise me to see him throw the kitchen sink to go get Conley. There's very few videos on Conley this year on MLB.com, but the very few ones there is showing him, it shows him getting out of a bases loaded jams with one out in the 7th innings. Really high leverage stuff. Like I could see people having a huge problem with a trade like this, but if you traded say two top 5 prospects in this system for him, I could see the Sox still coming really close or even winning that trade value wise. Conley looks legit as they come. What? There isn't much video because he's pitched all of 19 innings, with a .189 BAbip. Yet you want to trade two of Chavis, Mata, Houck, Casas, or Groome for him? Better chance that turns into the Varitek and Lowe trade, just in reverse, than we win it. That's right up there with the Yankees really wanting Kahnle last year, including good prospects to get him. Never trust one good half year of a reliever and certainly not 19 innings with a crazy low average on balls in play. Here's the first person to already have a problem with it. Conley has a groundball rate of 47 percent and he's striking out 10 per nine innings. He also has 4 years of control after this year. He throws hard, induces weak contact generally so far, and he's keeping walks in check so far in relief. Maybe I screwed up the value part of the trade a little from the Sox end, but we are talking about a gm who traded two top 10 prospects for 3 years of Kimbrel. He also traded 1 top 5 prospect for a guy who just broke out as a starter in Pomeranz who had 2 and a half years of control (who also had bad medicals mind you). Yeah the probability isn't high that a trade like this happens (because this is a hypothetical afterall), but it's the kind of trade that Dombrowski has targeted generally. Heathcliff Slocumb also didn't have 4 additional years either.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 5, 2018 20:19:09 GMT -5
I imagine that Conley's price just came down after that grand slam to Trea Turner.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 20:51:57 GMT -5
I imagine that Conley's price just came down after that grand slam to Trea Turner. Yikes, I definitely jinxed the guy. I'm telling you if I speak highly of someone, expect him to s*ck soon thereafter. He walked 4 men which I'm pretty sure matched his season totals in 19 innings. Clearly he didn't have it tonight. Goes to show how hard it is to evaluate in the MLB. Still he is a interesting name. Not a guy I think the Sox will go after. I still think Dozier, Familia, and Soria are the 3 most likely names the Sox go get if they even get anyone.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 5, 2018 20:54:17 GMT -5
A lot of the pitches did seem close so he might have been getting squeezed (the broadcast didn't show pitch location) I actually liked his stuff though. He hit at least 95 a few times, maybe even 97.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 21:07:16 GMT -5
Yeah he doubled his walk rate in one appearance. Hey at least his LOB % evened out lol. He does have a great fastball. That's what makes him so interesting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2018 21:57:07 GMT -5
I imagine that Conley's price just came down after that grand slam to Trea Turner. Yikes, I definitely jinxed the guy. I'm telling you if I speak highly of someone, expect him to s*ck soon thereafter. He walked 4 men which I'm pretty sure matched his season totals in 19 innings. Clearly he didn't have it tonight. Goes to show how hard it is to evaluate in the MLB. Still he is a interesting name. Not a guy I think the Sox will go after. I still think Dozier, Familia, and Soria are the 3 most likely names the Sox go get if they even get anyone. To me, Soria is still the guy to get. I'm not a huge fan of Familia. I'd be cool with the Sox getting Dozier, but I'm not sure how they shoehorn all those 2b possibilities onto the roster. I would think the Sox can have 2 backup infielders and I think they intend on having Brandon Phillips come up, but if the Sox do get Dozier it takes the pressure off of Nunez to play 2b and he can concentrate on 3b and back up Devers. I would guess that either Phillips is released or possibly even Nunez gets released in that scenario. Honestly I don't really think the Sox get a 2b. If they did I like Scooter Gennett, but I just don't see the Sox allocating the resources. If the Sox spend the money on Soria they'll definitely be over the limit if they're not already. At that point might as well see if Britton even comes close to resembling the guy he was a couple of years ago. If you're going to be over anyways, better to spend $ than prospects.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 22:09:29 GMT -5
Yikes, I definitely jinxed the guy. I'm telling you if I speak highly of someone, expect him to s*ck soon thereafter. He walked 4 men which I'm pretty sure matched his season totals in 19 innings. Clearly he didn't have it tonight. Goes to show how hard it is to evaluate in the MLB. Still he is a interesting name. Not a guy I think the Sox will go after. I still think Dozier, Familia, and Soria are the 3 most likely names the Sox go get if they even get anyone. To me, Soria is still the guy to get. I'm not a huge fan of Familia. I'd be cool with the Sox getting Dozier, but I'm not sure how they shoehorn all those 2b possibilities onto the roster. I would think the Sox can have 2 backup infielders and I think they intend on having Brandon Phillips come up, but if the Sox do get Dozier it takes the pressure off of Nunez to play 2b and he can concentrate on 3b and back up Devers. I would guess that either Phillips is released or possibly even Nunez gets released in that scenario. Honestly I don't really think the Sox get a 2b. If they did I like Scooter Gennett, but I just don't see the Sox allocating the resources. If the Sox spend the money on Soria they'll definitely be over the limit if they're not already. At that point might as well see if Britton even comes close to resembling the guy he was a couple of years ago. If you're going to be over anyways, better to spend $ than prospects. Yeah you trade Nunez to get Dozier (for salary purposes). Dozier is making one million dollars more AAV wise. I'm not sure what the Twins are asking for with Dozier, but he's a rental. It can't be that much. I'd be okay with giving up a Shawaryn for example. Throw in Swihart (another team that eeds future catching help). Why not for a extra win or two during the season? Brandon Phillips is 37 and is on a nothing deal. He be released if the Sox get a major upgrade in Dozier. I think Soria is the guy they target the most also in relief (if they get a guy).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 5, 2018 22:38:22 GMT -5
Shawaryn is a very good arm. Almost major league ready, with a ceiling of a 4/5 guy or high end bullpen guy. We need him long-term. I'm almost tempted to say call him up rather than trade for a guy. His stuff will improve in a relief role. Thats just stupid, more like next year, but I just hate seeing people keep bringing up his name.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 22:45:43 GMT -5
I'd say Sharwaryn is more of a middle releief arm. Maybe his stuff plays more in shorter stints, but I think he's pretty far back in the depth chart. Heck, Feltman could even pass him by next year on the depth chart.
Not stupid.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 5, 2018 23:13:35 GMT -5
To me, Soria is still the guy to get. I'm not a huge fan of Familia. I'd be cool with the Sox getting Dozier, but I'm not sure how they shoehorn all those 2b possibilities onto the roster. I would think the Sox can have 2 backup infielders and I think they intend on having Brandon Phillips come up, but if the Sox do get Dozier it takes the pressure off of Nunez to play 2b and he can concentrate on 3b and back up Devers. I would guess that either Phillips is released or possibly even Nunez gets released in that scenario. Honestly I don't really think the Sox get a 2b. If they did I like Scooter Gennett, but I just don't see the Sox allocating the resources. If the Sox spend the money on Soria they'll definitely be over the limit if they're not already. At that point might as well see if Britton even comes close to resembling the guy he was a couple of years ago. If you're going to be over anyways, better to spend $ than prospects. Yeah you trade Nunez to get Dozier (for salary purposes). Dozier is making one million dollars more AAV wise. I'm not sure what the Twins are asking for with Dozier, but he's a rental. It can't be that much. I'd be okay with giving up a Shawaryn for example. Throw in Swihart (another team that eeds future catching help). Why not for a extra win or two during the season? Brandon Phillips is 37 and is on a nothing deal. He be released if the Sox get a major upgrade in Dozier. I think Soria is the guy they target the most also in relief (if they get a guy). I'm kind of high on Shawayrn. He's kind of my binky so maybe I'm unreasonable, but I wouldn't be too thrilled about dealing him for Dozier. Dozier is not exactly having a stellar season. I'm not convinced that Shawaryn can't be an effective #4 starter. Can't imagine that Nunez would hold much appeal for Minnesota anyways, even packaged with others, but I could be wrong about that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 5, 2018 23:18:03 GMT -5
Sharwaryn seems closer to Anthony Ranaudo to me, but maybe that's just me.
Hey, if you could get Dozier for less I'd be all for it because he's probably the best 2B option on the 2018 Red Sox because Pedrioa isn't coming back this year. Dozier has a swing made for Fenway.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2018 0:17:32 GMT -5
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11424&position=Pwww.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa738524&position=PRanaudo's and Sharwaryn's stats in their first full year of AA is actually very similar. Ranuado had a slightly higher ground ball rate and a slightly higher K rate. Sharwaryn has a better walk rate. Their xFIP is almost identical. Take it for what it's worth. Both were right handed, both had a average fastball while starting, and both were profiled as back end starters (when starting). Being a fringe right handed starter isn't a great profile to stick in the majors and it's a uphill climb. I'd trade him while he's putting up some numbers in AA.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 6, 2018 17:24:39 GMT -5
Looking at just AA kinda misses the biggest difference between them. In 2017 Shawaryn pitched 134.2 innings racking up 169 strikeouts. Ranking 9th in strikouts and 11th in strikeouts per 9 innings in the minors. This year his strikeouts are down, yet his balls per 9 is also very good. So I'm chalking it up to him working on something. If it doesn't go back up I will view him differently.
I also like his 3/4 arm slot. Gives hitters a different look and could play up well in the bullpen if he gets moved there. I don't have velocity data, but reports of sits in low to mid 90s and can reach 95/96 seems like more than enough. There weren't even over 60 pitchers last year to pitch a 100 innings and average 93 mph or more on there fastballs. There were only 52 pitchers that did that.
I'm not trading him. If I learned anything over the last 10 years its that you can never have enough pitching. I'd rather keep the good ones even if they turn into a bust. Especially for a rental like Dozier. We just don't have much pitching in the high minors.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 6, 2018 17:40:32 GMT -5
It doesn't miss the point if you're looking at AA numbers. The difference between AA and A ball is a tremendous jump. Dismissing it for a assumption *on a reason you could be making up* is really reaching.
The average fastball this year is 93 mph. Having a low 90's fastball starting as a right handed starter isn't a good place to be.
Sharwaryn profiles as a middle reliever. The Sox have a boatload of them.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2018 13:08:19 GMT -5
Pedro Sharwaryn posted a k per 9 above 10 at three different stops, something Ranaudo never did. Not once at any stop while in the Red Sox system. If you really want to compare guys you can't overlook data. Overall Sharwaryn has more strikeouts and less walks. Thats huge. I know you'll continue to keep hating on him, its what you do and thats a shame.
Average fastball for what? All pitchers? The average fastball for a starter throwing over a 100 innings isn't 93 mph. You need to look at only starters and guys throwing a decent amount of innings.
On a reason I could be making up? That was my opinion! At the sametime it makes perfect sense. His walks per 9 spiked in Greenville and are way down this year. Given the huge jump in talent it makes perfect sense that only happens if they had him work on something. Its rather normal to see a pitchers strikeouts go down as he focuses on limiting walks. Just like a hitter trying to limit strikeouts will hit less homeruns. I'd also guess he's still working on his changeup. Thats what you do when you get to AA, work on the things you need to be a MLB pitcher.
How many pitchers do the Red Sox have that could strikeout guys like he did last year? That was as a starter, now imagine him in the bullpen. The Red Sox don't have a ton of guys like him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 7, 2018 13:53:47 GMT -5
To me, A ball numbers are pretty irrelevant. Great he dominated lesser competition that Ranaudo wasn'table to do at a younger age. Wonderful. Sharwaryn is average in better competition and he profiles as a middle reliever major leaguer as he progresses threw the system.
I'm not going to go into a 10 page long tangent on why you like Sharwaryn and why you think he's better than Ranaudo, even though they are posting similar numbers in the same level of competition.
The Sox have Feltman, Lankins, Buttrey who all throw harder and strike people out like him.
Anyways, the Sox have been scouting Fernando Rodney lately. Now that seems horrible. Rodney is overrated.
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