SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by widewordofsport on Apr 26, 2018 7:56:26 GMT -5
I love looking ahead to see who might play their way onto the 40 man, or be a potential call up who has to be added anyway (less likely this year with a deeper than normal roster).
Top 20 Pitchers: Darwinzon Hernandez Travis Lakins Roniel Raudes
Top 20 Batters: Josh Ockimey Michael Chavis
Top 60: Chad De La Guerra Nick Duron Jhonathan Diaz Tyler Hill Roldani Baldwin Jeremy Rivera Danny Mars Trey Ball Hildemaro Requena Trenton kemp Tate Matheney Jake Cosart Dedgar Jiminez Kyle Martin Kyri Washington AAA - William Cuevas AA - Austin Rei, Daniel McGrath, McAvoy, Stankiewicz, McGrath, Sturgeon A+ - Gonzalez, Weems, Glorius A - Denyi Reyes
Could almost make a new list... most of AAA is year-to-year FAs (I think these are): Dan Butler Jeremy Barfield Aneury tavarez Justin Haley Mike Olt Ivan DeJesus
Feel to add omissions/corrections. Some familiar names from previous discussions on this list, and almost all the Red Sox would be fine with letting go... striking how many are at A/A+. If that is more than normal, are the Sox taking a slower approach to development recently? Certainly have been some guys assigned to lower levels than expected over the past few years, but also some higher. I assume Boston will do what has to be done to make sure none are lost in MiL portion of Rule 5.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2018 21:39:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2018 21:45:04 GMT -5
My feel early is that they'll definitely add Chavis, Ockimey, & Darwinzon after the season. Lakins will depend on how he pitches and if he stays healthy. De La Guerra probably also gets added but it might depend on the 40-man situation - he could also be trade bait with a good season. I'd been predicting a September call-up for Chavis but the suspension completely changes that.
Other than that, I don't see it. Unless he shoves this year, I bet they can leave Raudes unprotected, because he's not the kind of guy that's going to be able to pitch in MLB next year, whereas I could see a team thinking Darwinzon has an MLB fastball and breaking ball and just has to figure out his control to pitch in the bullpen right now. Everyone else is either too far away or too fringy.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Apr 26, 2018 22:10:02 GMT -5
yeah I didn't realize till I went through how many are either prospects but far away... or 'employees' who just aren't major leaguers. Darwinzon and Ball are the LHP RPs with the low threshhold to be scooped up.
And thanks... I didn't know that page existed!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2018 6:37:38 GMT -5
Definately add: Michael Chavis Chad De La Guerra Kyle Martin
Add the ones that are most likely to get picked. Don't want to lose these, but we may be able to wait another season or two: Jake Cosart Darwinzon Hernandez Dedgar Jimenez Matt Kent (If he continues his good season) Travis Lakins Danny Mars Tate Matheny (If he continues his good season) Josh Ockimey (if he isn't traded) Austin Rei Jake Romanski Josh Tobias
MLFA candidates for a major league contract: Jeremy Barfield Dan Butler William Cuevas Aneury Tavarez
MLFA candidates to resign to a minor league contract: Ivan De Jesus Justin Haley Tommy Layne Mike Miller Jordan Weems
|
|
|
Post by bcsox on Apr 27, 2018 10:05:38 GMT -5
I imagine they will try to move a few of these bodies for international signing money. Ockimey could be one.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2018 10:25:40 GMT -5
It's time for my annual reminder that Raudes is 20 years old and it's insane and unhelpful that he is Rule 5 eligible.
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on May 3, 2018 11:46:45 GMT -5
Last year when I went to watch Portland play in Hartford twice, I wanted to write that I knew I was no scout because when I watched Cole Sturgeon play, I thought he was a young Brett Gardner, turning on 96 mph fastballs on the inside corner. He will probably need to put these numbers up in Pawtucket to even be considered, but he is becoming pretty interesting to follow.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 4, 2018 0:00:19 GMT -5
Figured with my comment on Hernandez in the gameday thread it made sense to revisit this. Surprisingly little has changed, I'd say. In addition to Chavis, Ockimey, and Hernandez, I have Lakins as a definite add at this point - he's taken to the relief role, and he's exactly the sort of player another team scoops up. And unlike Jason Garcia or someone like that, Lakins wouldn't need to be hidden in the back of the bullpen in the same way, and keeping him in the majors isn't going to stunt his development.
That's basically it. Like Chris said above, Raudes is just too far away to use a 40-man spot on, and he doesn't have the raw stuff that would translate into being useful in a major league bullpen. Sturgeon and Kyle Martin are both guys that an individual team might like and who could end up getting drafted, but I think you just kind of have to let that go. Same could potentially be said for Jordan Betts.
And, of course, the obligatory comment about Rusney Castillo having another year off his contract, making him an even more reasonable investment for someone who needs an above-replacement-level center fielder.
EDIT: Just looked over the list one more time, and Jordan Weems is a dark horse here.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2018 0:52:57 GMT -5
Good list James.
My one hope from adding Hernandez to the 40 man roster is that I hope he doesn't run out of options too soon. Hernandez would be 24 or 25 by the time his option years run out and that's probably not the best thing for development.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 4, 2018 15:37:04 GMT -5
Yeah, that's a part of the risk with guys like that. It's exactly what happened with Drake Britton and Stolmy Pimentel.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Jul 4, 2018 18:32:53 GMT -5
It also seems Boston *always* adds fewer guys to the 40 man than we expect every year. Hernandez seems like a trade candidate to me.
Guys, Christopher Acosta is eligible... you know, they guy who got $1.5 million as a 1B to Anderson Espinoza (and a top 10 IFA signing that year).
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 9:26:22 GMT -5
It also seems Boston *always* adds fewer guys to the 40 man than we expect every year. Hernandez seems like a trade candidate to me. Guys, Christopher Acosta is eligible... you know, they guy who got $1.5 million as a 1B to Anderson Espinoza (and a top 10 IFA signing that year). FWIW, given the way the last few years have gone, I'd be very surprised if Acosta kept his entire bonus. As I've said elsewhere, there's no logjam this year. Chavis, Ockimey, Darwinzon, Lakins. I think all are locks. MAYBE Baldwin is a consideration, but being a catcher and the development involved there should be enough to protect him from selection and you can wait a year, which is what I'd bet on occurring. Other arms could've played their way into consideration, but they have failed to do so. Raudes apparently getting an injection in his elbow, combined with, as mentioned, a profile that doesn't play up in the bullpen, will keep him from getting selected. Meanwhile, on the 40-man, - Pearce (FA), Cuevas (DFA), Haley (DFA), Walden (DFA). I remain doubtful that Blake Swihart lasts the season. And if you really need spots, the health of Carson Smith and Marco Hernandez could merit a non-tender. Maybe even Steven Wright depending on his knee. Or even Eduardo Nunez. All that said, as I've also said elsewhere, Dombrowski is going to have to start to get creative to keep this core together. I have a feeling this offseason won't be that simple. The club is set up to keep the core together through 2019, but I wonder what arb raises for everyone next year will look like, and whether they'll have to make some difficult decisions that we should not get into in this thread.
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on Jul 5, 2018 11:16:13 GMT -5
Figured with my comment on Hernandez in the gameday thread it made sense to revisit this. Surprisingly little has changed, I'd say. In addition to Chavis, Ockimey, and Hernandez, I have Lakins as a definite add at this point - he's taken to the relief role, and he's exactly the sort of player another team scoops up. And unlike Jason Garcia or someone like that, Lakins wouldn't need to be hidden in the back of the bullpen in the same way, and keeping him in the majors isn't going to stunt his development. That's basically it. Like Chris said above, Raudes is just too far away to use a 40-man spot on, and he doesn't have the raw stuff that would translate into being useful in a major league bullpen. Sturgeon and Kyle Martin are both guys that an individual team might like and who could end up getting drafted, but I think you just kind of have to let that go. Same could potentially be said for Jordan Betts. And, of course, the obligatory comment about Rusney Castillo having another year off his contract, making him an even more reasonable investment for someone who needs an above-replacement-level center fielder. EDIT: Just looked over the list one more time, and Jordan Weems is a dark horse here. Didn't know how to highlight this but after watching Weems yesterday I agree he has a chance.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 5, 2018 11:24:46 GMT -5
With Weems, he's an MLFA, so I think there's added incentive to add him - it's a little like with Jerez last year. That's especially since (like Chris said) there really is a lack of a roster crunch - there should be room to hoard a couple slightly more marginal players if they are inclined. And unlike Baldwin or Raudes, there's not really the risk of adding him too early and tearing through his options or whatever.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2018 11:37:30 GMT -5
Jerez is a lefty with a better fastball (96-98, T99) and two average secondaries. Weems is 92-94, T96 from the right side with one potential average secondary. I don't think the situations are that similar. I definitely think they'll pursue re-signing Weems, but I can't seem them using a roster spot to keep him from even hitting free agency given the glut of similar-ish guys they already have.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2018 13:00:49 GMT -5
I worry about the milb portion of the rule 5. It really shouldn't exist. Right now I'm looking at Chavis, De La Guerra, Kent, Matheny, and Ockimey. Not so enthusiastic about Martin as I was in my earlier post. Lakins, Tobias, and the MLFA's are dark horses here.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2018 13:09:06 GMT -5
I worry about the milb portion of the rule 5. It really shouldn't exist. Right now I'm looking at Chavis, De La Guerra, Kent, Matheny, and Ockimey. Not so enthusiastic about Martin as I was in my earlier post. Lakins, Tobias, and the MLFA's are dark horses here. I would bet that no one of significance has ever been drafted in the milb rule 5. (I mean real prospects, not miracles like Daniel Nava types)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2018 13:24:16 GMT -5
I worry about the milb portion of the rule 5. It really shouldn't exist. Right now I'm looking at Chavis, De La Guerra, Kent, Matheny, and Ockimey. Not so enthusiastic about Martin as I was in my earlier post. Lakins, Tobias, and the MLFA's are dark horses here. I would bet that no one of significance has ever been drafted in the milb rule 5. (I mean real prospects, not miracles like Daniel Nava types) Yeah but you lose solid organizational pieces and the organization goes from bad to worse.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2018 13:57:17 GMT -5
I would bet that no one of significance has ever been drafted in the milb rule 5. (I mean real prospects, not miracles like Daniel Nava types) Yeah but you lose solid organizational pieces and the organization goes from bad to worse. That just doesn't ever happen. I can't even think of a single ranked prospect that has ever been lost.
|
|
|
Post by mckeonam on Jul 8, 2018 16:03:08 GMT -5
Yeah but you lose solid organizational pieces and the organization goes from bad to worse. That just doesn't ever happen. I can't even think of a single ranked prospect that has ever been lost. I think the one modern example of a player having success in the majors is Justin Bour, who was an MiLB AAA Rule 5 pick from the Cubs to the Marlins. It is so rare to find those guys down there.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2018 16:04:21 GMT -5
That just doesn't ever happen. I can't even think of a single ranked prospect that has ever been lost. I think the one modern example of a player having success in the majors is Justin Bour, who was an MiLB AAA Rule 5 pick from the Cubs to the Marlins. It is so rare to find those guys down there. And I would guess that he was barely a prospect at that point. Teams get to protect so many players for the minor league Rule 5.
|
|
|
Post by mckeonam on Jul 8, 2018 16:29:23 GMT -5
I think the one modern example of a player having success in the majors is Justin Bour, who was an MiLB AAA Rule 5 pick from the Cubs to the Marlins. It is so rare to find those guys down there. And I would guess that he was barely a prospect at that point. Teams get to protect so many players for the minor league Rule 5. Yup. I don't think anyone could have anticipated his future success. The MiLB portion of the draft is a good way to find fillers and maybe someone with one standout tool that could take a step forward. We have actually seen positive things from Josh D. Smith after snagging him but even then, he may never make the majors. It's just a guessing game.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 8, 2018 21:30:56 GMT -5
I would bet that no one of significance has ever been drafted in the milb rule 5. (I mean real prospects, not miracles like Daniel Nava types) Yeah but you lose solid organizational pieces and the organization goes from bad to worse. What makes you feel like this is a justifiable fear though? They've never lost a player in the minor league portion of Rule 5 under the current rules who is even remotely worth caring about. www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htmFYI, the AAA reserve list is 37 players. So in addition to anyone on the 40-man roster, you can protect another 37. So take the current Rule 5 list ( www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htm ), remove anyone who's already in AAA or has been in AAA this year, and then remove another like 15-20 guys. Is there anyone left you'd care about losing? There is no reason to worry about losing a guy in minor league Rule 5. For real. EDIT: Just remembered I have the 2015 Rule 5 lists. Hopefully at this point it's ok that I post this given the amount of time that's passed, but for reference, the Red Sox (effectively) left 11 guys exposed to the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft: David Chester, Carlos Coste, Kevin Heller, Zac Kapstein, Kyle Kraus, Jesus Loya, Aneudis Peralta, Randy Perez, Carlos Pinales, Alixon Suarez, and JT Watkins. Of that list, Chester, Heller, Kraus, Peralta, Perez, and Pinales were released 9 days after the Rule 5 draft; Loya actually was selected but it was really just his rights because he's been playing in Mexico since; Coste retired to become a coach with the Red Sox; Kapstein was traded to Baltimore the next day for cash (because he's Jeremy's nephew and he'd just gone to Baltimore, basically); Suarez was released in spring training; and Watkins played one more year before retiring to become, I think, a scout with the Sox. So that's the kind of player who is exposed to the minor league Rule 5 draft in this system.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2018 7:11:47 GMT -5
Yeah but you lose solid organizational pieces and the organization goes from bad to worse. What makes you feel like this is a justifiable fear though? They've never lost a player in the minor league portion of Rule 5 under the current rules who is even remotely worth caring about. www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htmFYI, the AAA reserve list is 37 players. So in addition to anyone on the 40-man roster, you can protect another 37. So take the current Rule 5 list ( www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htm ), remove anyone who's already in AAA or has been in AAA this year, and then remove another like 15-20 guys. Is there anyone left you'd care about losing? There is no reason to worry about losing a guy in minor league Rule 5. For real. EDIT: Just remembered I have the 2015 Rule 5 lists. Hopefully at this point it's ok that I post this given the amount of time that's passed, but for reference, the Red Sox (effectively) left 11 guys exposed to the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft: David Chester, Carlos Coste, Kevin Heller, Zac Kapstein, Kyle Kraus, Jesus Loya, Aneudis Peralta, Randy Perez, Carlos Pinales, Alixon Suarez, and JT Watkins. Of that list, Chester, Heller, Kraus, Peralta, Perez, and Pinales were released 9 days after the Rule 5 draft; Loya actually was selected but it was really just his rights because he's been playing in Mexico since; Coste retired to become a coach with the Red Sox; Kapstein was traded to Baltimore the next day for cash (because he's Jeremy's nephew and he'd just gone to Baltimore, basically); Suarez was released in spring training; and Watkins played one more year before retiring to become, I think, a scout with the Sox. So that's the kind of player who is exposed to the minor league Rule 5 draft in this system. Ooh. I didn't know about the AAA reserve list. That's good.
|
|
|