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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 23, 2018 2:35:14 GMT -5
Gotta say I'm surprised no Ockimey. Sure he has issues, but age 22 season had OPS over .800, 20 HRs in AA/AAA. He's getting picked, the only question is what is the chances he sticks on a roster for the year? All depends on the team,but a lot higher than you'd like, which is no chance at all. His on base skills and power give him a chance. I really wanted to see him a full year at AAA before making a decision. I can only see a AL team picking him. He can't play first base all that well and his one tool of hitting RHP in the minors might not play up in the majors right away. I don't think the Sox will lose Ockimey permanently if he gets picked, very high chance he comes back by even the end of spring training imo.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2018 9:05:38 GMT -5
Gotta say I'm surprised no Ockimey. Sure he has issues, but age 22 season had OPS over .800, 20 HRs in AA/AAA. He's getting picked, the only question is what is the chances he sticks on a roster for the year? All depends on the team,but a lot higher than you'd like, which is no chance at all. His on base skills and power give him a chance. I really wanted to see him a full year at AAA before making a decision. I can only see a AL team picking him. He can't play first base all that well and his one tool of hitting RHP in the minors might not play up in the majors right away. I don't think the Sox will lose Ockimey permanently if he gets picked, very high chance he comes back by even the end of spring training imo. I don't think it would be shocking for a team like the Orioles or maybe even the Royals to pick Ockimey. If he develops as hoped in his best case scenario, perhaps you get a Jon Nunnally out of him and for a brief time Nunnally was a pretty good offensive player.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 23, 2018 10:32:53 GMT -5
Gotta say I'm surprised no Ockimey. Sure he has issues, but age 22 season had OPS over .800, 20 HRs in AA/AAA. He's getting picked, the only question is what is the chances he sticks on a roster for the year? All depends on the team,but a lot higher than you'd like, which is no chance at all. His on base skills and power give him a chance. I really wanted to see him a full year at AAA before making a decision. You say OPS over .800 and 20 homers like that season wouldn’t get you DFAed by the Rays. We’ll see what happens but I’m not that worried. Teams just don’t value 1b/DH types highly these days, and it’s much harder to carry an extra bench bat than a garbage time reliever.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 23, 2018 12:34:37 GMT -5
I was looking at the available rule 5 types the Rangers are making Matuella available. There are others too. Very interesting this year. You know carry Okimey you have to either have very little power or no first base help. He is a luxury for a major league team. This isn’t five years ago. That said I would not be surprised someone getting a look at him for spring training. I was hoping he would here after this season. Because Moreland and Pearce are only this year and the Sox have been careful with Okimey spending a year to year a each level. So at worst he replaces Moreland for your lefty bat. I still hope he comes back gets a good run at AAA and makes the major league team.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 23, 2018 13:30:23 GMT -5
I've wondered if a side effect of teams being willing to use relievers for longer stretches would be a return to an 11-man staff in regular times. It would be a lot easier for Ockimey to stick on a five person bench, where carrying a lefty pinch hitter/backup first baseman with some pop isn't a terrible idea.
I don't know. I guess I see the arguments for why he wasn't protected, but I still disagree with the choice.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 23, 2018 13:53:34 GMT -5
Gotta say I'm surprised no Ockimey. Sure he has issues, but age 22 season had OPS over .800, 20 HRs in AA/AAA. He's getting picked, the only question is what is the chances he sticks on a roster for the year? All depends on the team,but a lot higher than you'd like, which is no chance at all. His on base skills and power give him a chance. I really wanted to see him a full year at AAA before making a decision. I can only see a AL team picking him. He can't play first base all that well and his one tool of hitting RHP in the minors might not play up in the majors right away. I don't think the Sox will lose Ockimey permanently if he gets picked, very high chance he comes back by even the end of spring training imo. He's right around that age where players start to break out. Almost a full season of ABs at the AA and AAA level. Just hit a career high in homers. I'd argue his greatest strength is his career .362 OBP in the minors. He's a money ball type player going into his age 23 season. In so many ways he's an Adam Dunn lite prospect. A guy that likely isn't good enough for the Red Sox, yet could help a lot of teams if he keeps improving. Certainly not a guy you just want to get nothing for before his age 23 season. A lot of rebuilding teams in the AL right now. MLB.com ranked him one of the top 4 prospects available, though it was using old rankings. My point being its not a lock he gets returned and thats not a good thing. Tons of bad defensive power hitters with strikeout issues, I don't think many of them have Ockimey's on base skills though.
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Post by controne on Nov 23, 2018 21:47:31 GMT -5
I don’t understand ... what would have been the downside of putting Ockimey on the 40?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 23, 2018 22:53:55 GMT -5
Someone the team felt had a better chance of being picked off would have been left unprotected.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 23, 2018 22:59:49 GMT -5
I can only see a AL team picking him. He can't play first base all that well and his one tool of hitting RHP in the minors might not play up in the majors right away. I don't think the Sox will lose Ockimey permanently if he gets picked, very high chance he comes back by even the end of spring training imo. He's right around that age where players start to break out. Almost a full season of ABs at the AA and AAA level. Just hit a career high in homers. I'd argue his greatest strength is his career .362 OBP in the minors. He's a money ball type player going into his age 23 season. In so many ways he's an Adam Dunn lite prospect. A guy that likely isn't good enough for the Red Sox, yet could help a lot of teams if he keeps improving. Certainly not a guy you just want to get nothing for before his age 23 season. A lot of rebuilding teams in the AL right now. MLB.com ranked him one of the top 4 prospects available, though it was using old rankings. My point being its not a lock he gets returned and thats not a good thing. Tons of bad defensive power hitters with strikeout issues, I don't think many of them have Ockimey's on base skills though. 1) If you have any evidence that there is an "age where players start to break out," that'd be news to me. 2) They might lose him. They might not. He's not an Adam Dunn lite. Ockimey struck out nearly 30% of his plate appearances in AA. He struck out at more than a 35% clip in AAA and right around there in the AFL. As I and others have pointed out ad nauseum in the Dalbec threads, guys that strike out a lot in MLB typically didn't strike out like that in the minors. Dunn struck out at a 20% clip in AAA... at age 21. And he hit .329/.441/.676. Ockimey hit .215/.305/.398. I'm a little surprised they didn't protect him. I think there's a small chance he gets picked. I think there's a smaller, though non-zero chance he sticks. But he is what he is, and let's not get carried away like he projects to be some Role 6 player. (By the way, I moved the Cron vs. Pearce debate into its own thread - discussion of the two in relation to Ockimey is fine here, but remember, it's the Rule 5 thread)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 23, 2018 23:07:42 GMT -5
I don’t understand ... what would have been the downside of putting Ockimey on the 40? Someone the team felt had a better chance of being picked off would have been left unprotected. Not necessarily true. They're at 39. The better answer is probably that (1) exposing a player to Rule 5 is potentially less of a risk than the risk of exposing the player to waivers to remove him from the 40-man, (2) if they think may not add him to the 40-man this season (i.e., he won't get picked and they might not call him up), it allows them more flexibility on the 40-man, (3) they would rather protect the players they project to be on the 40-man roster entering the season than Ockimey (worded that way because they still may need to remove players from the roster this offseason if they make significant additions).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 23, 2018 23:11:21 GMT -5
Age might have been the wrong word, more like period. You know a lot about a player after they get a bunch of AA and AAA ABs.
Well so I call a guy an Adam Dunn lite and you compare him to Dunn? I didn't say he was Dunn, at the sametime he's a power guy, strikesout a lot, can't play D, but gets on base a lot. That is a very similar player to Dunn.
Small chance he gets picked? Maybe I'm dead wrong, but I'd be shocked if he's not picked. Small chance he doesn't get picked. Mlb.com the article someone here posted ranks him as one of the top four guys available.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 23, 2018 23:30:29 GMT -5
Age might have been the wrong word, more like period. You know a lot about a player after they get a bunch of AA and AAA ABs. Well so I call a guy an Adam Dunn lite and you compare him to Dunn? I didn't say he was Dunn, at the sametime he's a power guy, strikesout a lot, can't play D, but gets on base a lot. That is a very similar player to Dunn. Small chance he gets picked? Maybe I'm dead wrong, but I'd be shocked if he's not picked. Small chance he doesn't get picked. Mlb.com the article someone here posted ranks him as one of the top four guys available. If Ockimey is Adam Dunn-lite, it's a description without meaning. Ockimey isn't in the same universe as Dunn. 1) Power: Dunn had a .347 ISOp in AAA at age 21. .321 in AA that same year. Ockimey was .219 in AA and .183 in AAA at age 22. He doesn't make contact enough to get to his raw power, which isn't even as good 2) Defense: Fine - if you want to say they're both bad on D, we can stipulate to that. 3) On-base: Dunn: .449 OBP in AA, .441 OBP in AAA at age 21. Ockimey: .370 in AA, .305 in AAA at age 22. My point is that calling Ockimey "Dunn-lite" makes the comparison meaningless. That's why I compared the two. Even if we were to agree about the power-no defense-on-base comp, my point was that Ockimey probably strikes out too much right now to succeed with that profile in MLB. And we haven't even discussed how LHPs kill Ockimey (186/.269/.295 this year). He's not Dunn-lite right now unless that means "LH side of a platoon at 1B for a team who is ok with his below-avg defense or LH side of a platoon at DH for a team that, for some reason, has a DH platoon."
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 24, 2018 1:17:09 GMT -5
I don’t understand ... what would have been the downside of putting Ockimey on the 40? Someone the team felt had a better chance of being picked off would have been left unprotected. Not necessarily true. They're at 39. ... Thanks, I knew that and then forgot it. Too much turkey.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 24, 2018 3:56:42 GMT -5
Age might have been the wrong word, more like period. You know a lot about a player after they get a bunch of AA and AAA ABs. Well so I call a guy an Adam Dunn lite and you compare him to Dunn? I didn't say he was Dunn, at the sametime he's a power guy, strikesout a lot, can't play D, but gets on base a lot. That is a very similar player to Dunn. Small chance he gets picked? Maybe I'm dead wrong, but I'd be shocked if he's not picked. Small chance he doesn't get picked. Mlb.com the article someone here posted ranks him as one of the top four guys available. If Ockimey is Adam Dunn-lite, it's a description without meaning. Ockimey isn't in the same universe as Dunn. 1) Power: Dunn had a .347 ISOp in AAA at age 21. .321 in AA that same year. Ockimey was .219 in AA and .183 in AAA at age 22. He doesn't make contact enough to get to his raw power, which isn't even as good 2) Defense: Fine - if you want to say they're both bad on D, we can stipulate to that. 3) On-base: Dunn: .449 OBP in AA, .441 OBP in AAA at age 21. Ockimey: .370 in AA, .305 in AAA at age 22. My point is that calling Ockimey "Dunn-lite" makes the comparison meaningless. That's why I compared the two. Even if we were to agree about the power-no defense-on-base comp, my point was that Ockimey probably strikes out too much right now to succeed with that profile in MLB. And we haven't even discussed how LHPs kill Ockimey (186/.269/.295 this year). He's not Dunn-lite right now unless that means "LH side of a platoon at 1B for a team who is ok with his below-avg defense or LH side of a platoon at DH for a team that, for some reason, has a DH platoon." Well yea like I said before a team claiming him would be using him in a platoon because of his split numbers. Its all the rage right now. So your looking at how he hits right handed pitching. Which he does very well, .273 .393 .531 .924 combined in AA and AAA. Your using ISO, I'm looking at gangraphs ranking Ockimey 60 at power and how it plays for a platoon. It was a quick comparison based off of a similar skill set, one that you don't see everyday. I do feel he has a chance to be a Dunn lite type player if he's used right and keeps improving. Fun fact in 2018 with 2 outs and RISP Ockimey hit .321 .406 .583 .990, hitting 4 HRs, 1 3B, 8 2B, 14 1B and 27 RBI.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 24, 2018 8:39:42 GMT -5
I just want to say one more thing about Ockimey. I feel if he made the team in 2020 or even later this year because of injury he had a chance to clean up his swing because to me the coach’s could of caught something that the minors did not. I feel if he is claimed by another team he will get lost in the schuffle. For example Papi was not a finished product coming out of the minors he cleaned up his wholes in his swing in the majors. I believe between the pitching coaches and hitting coaches we are at the top right now and do not forget the J.D. Martinez effect.
Plus Ockimey is my binky. My prediction is if he stays in Boston we will get the fruits of the work. If he gets claimed he will get lost in the scuffle. I have no proof just my gut instinct . My opinion. He is one of our own. Maybe what is behind him is better. I am just dying to see this kid win. That’s my rant for whatever it’s worth.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 24, 2018 17:44:28 GMT -5
If Ockimey is Adam Dunn-lite, it's a description without meaning. Ockimey isn't in the same universe as Dunn. 1) Power: Dunn had a .347 ISOp in AAA at age 21. .321 in AA that same year. Ockimey was .219 in AA and .183 in AAA at age 22. He doesn't make contact enough to get to his raw power, which isn't even as good 2) Defense: Fine - if you want to say they're both bad on D, we can stipulate to that. 3) On-base: Dunn: .449 OBP in AA, .441 OBP in AAA at age 21. Ockimey: .370 in AA, .305 in AAA at age 22. My point is that calling Ockimey "Dunn-lite" makes the comparison meaningless. That's why I compared the two. Even if we were to agree about the power-no defense-on-base comp, my point was that Ockimey probably strikes out too much right now to succeed with that profile in MLB. And we haven't even discussed how LHPs kill Ockimey (186/.269/.295 this year). He's not Dunn-lite right now unless that means "LH side of a platoon at 1B for a team who is ok with his below-avg defense or LH side of a platoon at DH for a team that, for some reason, has a DH platoon." Well yea like I said before a team claiming him would be using him in a platoon because of his split numbers. Its all the rage right now. So your looking at how he hits right handed pitching. Which he does very well, .273 .393 .531 .924 combined in AA and AAA. Your using ISO, I'm looking at gangraphs ranking Ockimey 60 at power and how it plays for a platoon. It was a quick comparison based off of a similar skill set, one that you don't see everyday. I do feel he has a chance to be a Dunn lite type player if he's used right and keeps improving. Fun fact in 2018 with 2 outs and RISP Ockimey hit .321 .406 .583 .990, hitting 4 HRs, 1 3B, 8 2B, 14 1B and 27 RBI. To be clear, at Fangraphs, they have Ockimey graded at 60 (plus) raw power, which squares with his profile here on SoxProspects and which I agree with. They also grade him at 40 (below average) present in-game power, projecting it to 55 (above-average) in-game power in the future. That is precisely my point - he's got plus raw but doesn't get all the way to it because of his contact issues, and that's borne out in his ISOp numbers compared to, say, Dunn. Another clarification: his ISOp numbers aren't bad - they're pretty good. My point was that it's silly to even throw "Dunn-lite" on him. But whatever, we can agree to disagree. FWIW, on his splits, he was way worse against RHP in AAA (see www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?split=3&player=656807 ). 40% K rate on a .243/.312/.471 with a reasonable BABIP. I think he could be useful in a platoon down the line like you, but I don't think he's there yet and don't think it's certain he will get there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 24, 2018 20:40:07 GMT -5
Huh, something I just noticed while discussing Ockimey with the brass that I just wanted to throw out there:
Year-by-year, Ockimey thru June 31 and from July 1 onward: 2016: .291/.423/.517, 25% K rate; .141/.293/.305, 27.0% K rate* 2017: .283/.404/.434, 23.4% K rate; .262/.357/.436, 29.8% K rate 2018**: .252/.377/.463, 27.6% K rate; .237/.329/.446, 35% K rate (* - Note 2016 swoon comes with a brutal .161 BABIP that's at least partially to blame ** - Note that if you give him 10 games to get his feet under him after returning from a hamstring injury that postponed the start to his season, his first half numbers are much better: .262/.396/.497, 26.1 % K rate)
I wonder if Ockimey struggling in AAA was more about his having a late-season swoon than about struggling against AAA pitching? He was pretty bad in the last few weeks in AA as well. .169/.275/.339 in his last 17 games before the promotion.
On the one hand - if he can fix that, that'd be a very good thing. On the other hand - it's not great if this is a thing in year five of his pro career.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 24, 2018 22:01:49 GMT -5
Hm, I'm not sure what to make of that entirely. He got late promotions in both 2017 and 2018, and I wonder how much of that is adjustment, how much is maybe fatigue and maintaining consistency, and if any of it is bad luck. Like, that second half of 2017 isn't great on its face and pales in comparison to the first half, but in the context of a 21-year-old getting challenged with a promotion to Double-A? That's a line I'm happy with.
That connects to what I keep coming back to: he hit .258/.370/.461 in about 500 PA in Double-A as a 21 and 22 year old. The K rate was not good but not unplayable (29.2%), the walk rate was very good 15.3%, the Iso was about where you need it to be. It's not crazy to think that he ends up roughly the player Justin Smoak was this year, and maybe accidentally has a season or two like Justin Smoak did in 2017. That's not a franchise cornerstone or anything, but it's worth protecting given the lack of roster constraints.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 24, 2018 22:11:06 GMT -5
I'm guessing the Sox think he'll be returned if drafted. Otherwise they more likely would have traded him for a lower level prospect.
I'm also guessing it won't be the Orioles that draft him, they don't have a true shortstop on their 40 man.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 24, 2018 22:21:40 GMT -5
Orioles would do well to draft Richie Martin from the A's (formerly of University of Florida). At worst he's a defense-first backup, and they are in a position to give him the at-bats he needs.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 25, 2018 2:29:26 GMT -5
Got a general question about the Rule 5. When a player is returned to a team after not remaining with the team that selected him via the rule 5, does the team that's getting that player back have to put that player on their 40 man roster in order to keep him all over again?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Nov 25, 2018 7:11:08 GMT -5
Hm, I'm not sure what to make of that entirely. He got late promotions in both 2017 and 2018, and I wonder how much of that is adjustment, how much is maybe fatigue and maintaining consistency, and if any of it is bad luck. Like, that second half of 2017 isn't great on its face and pales in comparison to the first half, but in the context of a 21-year-old getting challenged with a promotion to Double-A? That's a line I'm happy with. That connects to what I keep coming back to: he hit .258/.370/.461 in about 500 PA in Double-A as a 21 and 22 year old. The K rate was not good but not unplayable (29.2%), the walk rate was very good 15.3%, the Iso was about where you need it to be. It's not crazy to think that he ends up roughly the player Justin Smoak was this year, and maybe accidentally has a season or two like Justin Smoak did in 2017. That's not a franchise cornerstone or anything, but it's worth protecting given the lack of roster constraints. Is Justin Smoak a really encouraging comparison? Years of suck, didn't become very good until age 30? Why not let him and sign him as a FA at age 29?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 25, 2018 7:36:52 GMT -5
I don't know if it's "encouraging" per se, just that it's worth a spot on the 40-man. Not everyone is going to be a star. And my post did specify "the player Smoak was this year."
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Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2018 8:26:47 GMT -5
Got a general question about the Rule 5. When a player is returned to a team after not remaining with the team that selected him via the rule 5, does the team that's getting that player back have to put that player on their 40 man roster in order to keep him all over again? No.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 25, 2018 9:50:27 GMT -5
Got a general question about the Rule 5. When a player is returned to a team after not remaining with the team that selected him via the rule 5, does the team that's getting that player back have to put that player on their 40 man roster in order to keep him all over again? No. To add to this, the player is returned only after clearing waivers, so when the player has been returned, every team has had the opportunity to add him to the 25-man roster at that point in time, under the standard Rule 5 rules. That said, these days, it's pretty rare for another team to pick that guy up on waivers.
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