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Post by Canseco on Oct 31, 2018 7:26:34 GMT -5
While appreciating Price’s incredible 2018 and fully realizing the negative impact it would have on 2019, I hope he opts out. We need the flexibility to sign our young core long term, and a pitcher entering his mid-30s isn’t someone I want eating up a huge swath of the payroll.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 31, 2018 7:39:41 GMT -5
I spent some time looking at Brook Baseball for Price the other day, and found it really interesting how often his pitch mix changes, not just season to season but within a season (they show mix per month for every year of his career). It could be a few things. First, it might be fatigue as the year goes along. It could be he's a constant tinkerer, and that could be to his benefit or his detriment. But I believe a pitcher that can transform himself like that and figure out what's working or give different looks over time is more likely to age well. I'm not sure the Red Sox have a path to a better pitcher than him over the next 2-3 years, so I hope he stays. www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=456034&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=10/31/2018&s_type=2 |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 31, 2018 8:15:24 GMT -5
Fangraphs $WAR has price here since coming to Boston:
2016: $35.8M
2017: $12.4M
2018: $21.7M
He hasn't hit 200 IP in a couple of years now and is 33 years old. Nobody out there is matching 4/$127M that he has coming his way, let alone bettering it.
As Jimed alluded to, some star pitchers have to figure themselves out again as they get a bit older. Price did a lot of tinkering and had a great year. I never expected a full 7 years of great pitching from him, but I think he's got at least a couple good ones left in the tank, and he's proven to be incredibly valuable to us in the playoffs in both of the past 2 seasons.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 31, 2018 8:21:20 GMT -5
I have a theory, and this is completely conjecture based on nothing but my thoughts. If Price is going to opt out we will find out about it at or after midnight, if he's going to opt in we will hear about it this morning.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2018 8:22:01 GMT -5
To me, the only plausible reason that Price might have opted out is that he was just so unhappy dealing with the media/narratives in Boston that he was willing to risk the the very likely possibility that he isn’t able to match what he otherwise was owed. However, now that he’s won a title and dismissed the “he can’t win in the playoffs” talk, I don’t see that as a driving force anymore. Like he says, he’s got the trump card now, and there’s less of a reason for him to want to leave for non-financial reasons.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 31, 2018 8:25:08 GMT -5
Thanks for the memories. AMF
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 31, 2018 9:08:21 GMT -5
To me, the only plausible reason that Price might have opted out is that he was just so unhappy dealing with the media/narratives in Boston that he was willing to risk the the very likely possibility that he isn’t able to match what he otherwise was owed. However, now that he’s won a title and dismissed the “he can’t win in the playoffs” talk, I don’t see that as a driving force anymore. Like he says, he’s got the trump card now, and there’s less of a reason for him to want to leave for non-financial reasons. Agree. He shouldn't catch as much heat, either. But I think he truly likes this team, these guys, and wants no part of leaving. I don't think he's giving it much of a shot. He may be a bit on the expensive side, but if he has figured out how to pitch as a 33 year old, I want him back. I think he's actually getting healthier. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 31, 2018 9:32:17 GMT -5
David Price just said he's not opting out, per every beat writer.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 31, 2018 9:39:15 GMT -5
Alex Speier
@alexspeier
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Price: ‘I’m not going anywhere’ he’s not opting out
7:30 AM - 31 Oct 2018
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 31, 2018 9:54:33 GMT -5
Was coming here to say that he told the fans that at Fenway today
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Post by bluechip on Oct 31, 2018 9:55:51 GMT -5
The trust funds for his grandchildren’s grandchildren will now be slightly more valuable.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 31, 2018 9:58:05 GMT -5
To me, the only plausible reason that Price might have opted out is that he was just so unhappy dealing with the media/narratives in Boston that he was willing to risk the the very likely possibility that he isn’t able to match what he otherwise was owed. However, now that he’s won a title and dismissed the “he can’t win in the playoffs” talk, I don’t see that as a driving force anymore. Like he says, he’s got the trump card now, and there’s less of a reason for him to want to leave for non-financial reasons. I agree and would add that he likely adds length to the quality of his stats by moving to an NL team, and likely boosts his HOF chances because of the potential for increased Ks and somewhat weaker line-ups. I could see him becoming Cub, Nat or Dodger, albeit for somewhat less money. Not sure Atlanta would spend the money, and Philly may pass given the Arietta contract. Milwaukee is likely out. In the AL I really can't see a team going there except maybe the Angels since they're so unpredictable, or the Mariners. Doubt Houston goes there, although they seem to have some magic pitcher wand lately, and the lack of an income tax in Texas could come into play. NYY seems to have gotten smarter than blowing it on someone like Price, unless they really think he gets them over the hump, then they'd be in the mix. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 31, 2018 10:03:27 GMT -5
We should be all in to repeat. If he’s staying. Gotta let Eovaldi and Kimbrel walk. Sign Britton and get the comp pick for Kimbrel
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 31, 2018 10:58:26 GMT -5
I hate to say I told you so but... actually I don’t hate it that much.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 31, 2018 11:00:19 GMT -5
No reason to let Eovaldi walk. Keep him close. Probably losing Kimbrel and Pom would suggest that. The $40M from shedding their contracts plus Hanley’s makes it possible. Britton would be awesome, and create the Bullpen version of the Killer B’s with Barnes and Brasier but is he really back to form?
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dd
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Post by dd on Oct 31, 2018 11:31:52 GMT -5
He's BAAAAAAAAACK!!!~!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 13:27:48 GMT -5
Big day for the organization in terms of knowing future payroll. Glad that's over with. Now is the interesting part in seeing how Dombrowski maneuveres the payroll the next 2 years especially. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 31, 2018 13:48:47 GMT -5
I merged both David Price threads together so the discussion is in one place.
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Post by manfred on Oct 31, 2018 17:38:44 GMT -5
No reason to let Eovaldi walk. Keep him close. Probably losing Kimbrel and Pom would suggest that. The $40M from shedding their contracts plus Hanley’s makes it possible. Britton would be awesome, and create the Bullpen version of the Killer B’s with Barnes and Brasier but is he really back to form? Britton is so risky. He’ll be looking for big money, too, and he was terrible this year. He might have a full bounceback next year, but... likely pass. But... to keep to the thread: I’m actually pleased Price is staying. If his elbow stays healthy, he could give them a few more really solid years. That is nothing to sneeze at. |
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Post by libertine on Oct 31, 2018 18:39:23 GMT -5
I was very happy to hear this news. I started to warm to him, and his sometimes churlish demeanor (re: the "Eck affair"), over the years. He really stepped it up this year, specifically this postseason, and proved to me he is fully committed to the Red Sox and Boston (not that he needed to, but he did). It sends a message to his younger teammates, who seem to genuinely like and respect him, that Boston is the place to be.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2018 22:07:48 GMT -5
People will look at Price's 3.58 ERA for the year and project him on that basis.
But he had a 4.42 ERA in his first 19 starts, before he finished making a set of alterations. In his last 16, including the post-season, he had a 94 68 29 27 28 91 line, for a 2.59 ERA.*
I don't think we can expect that, but something closer to 3.00 wouldn't be an unreasonable expectation. That could be worth 0.5 - 1.0 wins.
*Even though 9 of those starts were against elite offenses -- 3 NYY, 3 Hou, 2 LAD, 1 Cle -- he also had 4 against Bal, Det, Mia, and that brings the average quality of opposition to just 4.60 R/G versus the AL average of 4.53.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 31, 2018 22:16:29 GMT -5
We should be all in to repeat. If he’s staying. Gotta let Eovaldi and Kimbrel walk. Sign Britton and get the comp pick for Kimbrel Well, here’s the big question: does Kimbrel get a QO? It can’t be offered in consecutive seasons, so if he took it and stayed, they’d get a single year at 17.5M or whatever. That’s about $3M over what he’ll probably command in AAV. I’m not sure they’ll offer it. Seems like they would...or get nothing...but then they’ve gotta hope like hell he doesn’t take it. He could, bet on himself and pitch reasonably well (for him), and collect his 4/60 or whatever next year. |
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Post by telson13 on Oct 31, 2018 22:23:46 GMT -5
No reason to let Eovaldi walk. Keep him close. Probably losing Kimbrel and Pom would suggest that. The $40M from shedding their contracts plus Hanley’s makes it possible. Britton would be awesome, and create the Bullpen version of the Killer B’s with Barnes and Brasier but is he really back to form? Britton is so risky. He’ll be looking for big money, too, and he was terrible this year. He might have a full bounceback next year, but... likely pass. But... to keep to the thread: I’m actually pleased Price is staying. If his elbow stays healthy, he could give them a few more really solid years. That is nothing to sneeze at. Idk that I’d call him *terrible*; he had some control and command issues coming back, but his stuff was good by year’s end and his results improved pretty steadily. BUT, yeah, if Trevor Rosenthal is getting $7M guaranteed and up to 2/30 with incentives, coming off TJ with NO performance to show he’s back...yeah, I’d worry about Britton’s cost being too high for the risk. I’d actually be OK with an incentive-laden deal a year longer than Rosenthal’s, but I think the rush to create uber-pens is silly. Cora proved its unnecessary for postseason success, anyway. I’d much prefer they go hunting for buy-low starters who’re apparent MLB rotation washouts, and convert them to relief. Pick up several, see who sticks. |
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Post by telson13 on Oct 31, 2018 22:31:01 GMT -5
People will look at Price's 3.58 ERA for the year and project him on that basis.
But he had a 4.42 ERA in his first 19 starts, before he finished making a set of alterations. In his last 16, including the post-season, he had a 94 68 29 27 28 91 line, for a 2.59 ERA.*
I don't think we can expect that, but something closer to 3.00 wouldn't be an unreasonable expectation. That could be worth 0.5 - 1.0 wins.
*Even though 9 of those starts were against elite offenses -- 3 NYY, 3 Hou, 2 LAD, 1 Cle -- he also had 4 against Bal, Det, Mia, and that brings the average quality of opposition to just 4.60 R/G versus the AL average of 4.53.
His velocity also improved in the postseason, where he was sitting 93-94 in the WS clincher. If he regains that lost velo the way Verlander did (similar build and workhorse history, not to mention the ability to successfully tinker), I think he could very easily return to being a legit #1. And even more of the same is a serviceable 2. I do believe that he’s probably in that Grienke/Verlander/Scherzer class where he’s going to be able to adapt and remain successful, even if not totally dominant. He should be capable of performing like a top-rotation arm for at least 2 years, possibly through his contract. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 1, 2018 15:28:39 GMT -5
We should be all in to repeat. If he’s staying. Gotta let Eovaldi and Kimbrel walk. Sign Britton and get the comp pick for Kimbrel Well, here’s the big question: does Kimbrel get a QO? It can’t be offered in consecutive seasons, so if he took it and stayed, they’d get a single year at 17.5M or whatever. That’s about $3M over what he’ll probably command in AAV. I’m not sure they’ll offer it. Seems like they would...or get nothing...but then they’ve gotta hope like hell he doesn’t take it. He could, bet on himself and pitch reasonably well (for him), and collect his 4/60 or whatever next year. Not to get too off-topic, but to me there is no question they offer Kimbrel the QO and there is no question he declines. He is coming off a fine enough year that he shouldn't need to sign a pillow contract or anything. |
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