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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 18, 2018 19:34:33 GMT -5
“The defense has been consistently-plus all year at third base. It’s been a strength,” [Red Sox director of player personnel] Crockett said. What is more likely to be the more accurate assessment of Dalbec's defense--the Red Sox' director of player personnel, having two years of daily reports available to him plus regular conversations with Dalbec's manager or someone who has "limited looks"? Hey, you're inclined to believe who you'd like. Of course, he has every reason to be over-complimentary as well. I challenge you to find an impartial source that calls his defense plus. Not necessarily "plus" but clearly improving (and note he comments on separate tool, arm, as an "80": Nick: Do you think Bobby Dalbec is legit? How does he compare to other Sox infield prospects like Chavis and Ockimey?
Keith Law: Dalbec is way better than Ockimey. Contact rate is way too low. He makes extremely hard contact when he hits it though and is using the whole field now. Huge power, 80 arm, a lot better on defense. I just can’t find a good comp for a hitter with his strikeout rate at his age.
And in a different chat he compares Dalbec to Austin Riley: Larry: Hey Keith, I know you’ve said before that you have come around some to Austin Riley. I’m still confused about him though. How valuable is he really if he’s striking out this much? Keith Law: The contact rate & bat speed remain the concerns. He’s done wonders with his body, become a legit third baseman, and has real power. Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet? Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better ...All in all, not a dismal assessment on his defense at this point.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2018 21:04:41 GMT -5
One thing different is Dalbec is described as having, "above average bat speed."
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 27, 2018 15:57:49 GMT -5
Before a great night last night Dalbec was 6 for his last 36 with 14 K in 40 PA. Law has it exactly right - when he hits it, it's hard (14 of his 22 AA hits are for extra bases), but will that happen enough? He's currently at a 35.9 percent K rate in AA, and again, the concern is not that the rate will translate directly, but that it will increase with better, smarter pitchers. He'll need to continue making adjustments at each level. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't debut in MLB until 2020. The point - there's no need for concern about how he fits on the MLB roster just yet.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 16:39:57 GMT -5
Before a great night last night Dalbec was 6 for his last 36 with 14 K in 40 PA. Law has it exactly right - when he hits it, it's hard (14 of his 22 AA hits are for extra bases), but will that happen enough? He's currently at a 35.9 percent K rate in AA, and again, the concern is not that the rate will translate directly, but that it will increase with better, smarter pitchers. He'll need to continue making adjustments at each level. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't debut in MLB until 2020. The point - there's no need for concern about how he fits on the MLB roster just yet. The pessimist’s way of reading this is: Chris is cautious about Dalbec, and Law says Dalbec is far better than Ockimey... so... Chavis better be legit?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2018 13:21:40 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 16, 2018 13:58:43 GMT -5
He’s Will Middlebrooks, without Jenny Dell, isn’t he? Great powe, a tease on hot streaks, but tons of Ks.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2018 15:09:29 GMT -5
He’s Will Middlebrooks, without Jenny Dell, isn’t he? Great powe, a tease on hot streaks, but tons of Ks. Well unlike WMB, he walks which is a huge deal. You cannot have enough power to live with a .250 OBP.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 16, 2018 18:58:04 GMT -5
He’s Will Middlebrooks, without Jenny Dell, isn’t he? Great powe, a tease on hot streaks, but tons of Ks. Well unlike WMB, he walks which is a huge deal. You cannot have enough power to live with a .250 OBP. Offensive (power and obp) AND defensive (hands, range and arm as a 3B/1B) best player is a kid we should want to see reach his high side. I liked WMB. Bobby doesn't seem to be WMB.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 16, 2018 19:04:12 GMT -5
WMB seems like a bad comp for reasons stated. The high K rate is very worrisome but some of that worry is settled by his ability to walk. That says something about his approach at the plate, and while the K’s will always be there you hope he can be disciplined enough for his power to make a difference.
I’m not as optimistic on Dalbec as others, but I’m not ready to write him off either. Especially if he can man the hot corner average to better defense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2018 19:30:23 GMT -5
I said this on Twitter, but let's not assume too much on the Defensive POY award. Blake Swihart and Rafael Devers are past recipients of that honor. I'm sure they have metrics they use and I'm not saying it's not deserved, but it shouldn't be interpreted as crowning him a future gold glover is all.
As for the WMB comp, let's compare Salem numbers (I'd argue Dalbec's Portland sample is too small): Dalbec, age 23/24: 100 G, 419 PA, .256/.372/.573, 26 HR, 27 2B, 31% K rate, 14% BB rate Middlebrooks, age 21: 114 G, 481 PA, .276/.331/.439, 12 HR, 31 2B, 25% K rate, 7% BB rate
So Dalbec has clear edges in power and plate discipline as measured by walks, but Middlebrooks didn't have the same issues with strikeouts.
Unfortunately, no game log for WMB on BRef, but he was really streaky at that level like Dalbec was this year if you look at the milb.com monthly splits. Of course, he was also about 2.5 years younger, which is meaningful - by Dalbec's age he'd made his MLB debut, banking 286 PA at the level before his 24th birthday, which Dalbec just had in June.
Defensively at the same level, they feel comparable. From our scouting report on WMB, which feels like it was probably updated around the AA level: "Plus-to-better arm. Light on feet defensively with strong anticipation, reactions, and first step. Solid footwork and stays square to the ball. Can stand to improve range to his left by stabbing less at the ball and taking another step or continuing to become comfortable throwing on the move. Rounding towards a plus defender."
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 18, 2018 6:42:07 GMT -5
I don't think they are very similar players, frankly. Middlebrooks was a better natural athlete and looked like he a more well-rounded game. He was the type of player whose upside would have been like a .280 hitter, even .300 in his best years. He had a very good year at Portland at 22, and then dominated Pawtucket for a couple months, forcing his way into the majors at 23. He was then exposed as having what amounted to a fatal flaw: he couldn't hit even average-ish changeups from pitchers who could both keep it in the zone and also mix it with an average fastball. The thing is, most major league pitchers have that combination, but most minor league pitchers do not, so what probably looked to scouts like "he has trouble with good change-ups"--a very common issue for 22-year-olds--turned into "the guy swings through even the most mediocre of changes and can't seem to make an adjustment." Dalbec's a different sort of player. He's a really good athlete too, but basically his power is awesome--notably better than Middlebrooks, arguably better than Devers. And unlike Middlebrooks, Dalbec sorts through a ton of pitches to wait for a pitch he can drive, resulting in a lot of walks (and, of course, a lot of looking strikes). Dalbec is not going to hit for average. He's the kind of guy who at best I see hitting about .235 in the majors unless he makes a major adjustment, and may hit .200, but he has the power and the defense to be an effective major leaguer while hitting .200, because he walks and his HR/contact rates are always going to be mammoth. He also might strike out >40% of the time, struggle to hit above .175, and just not hit enough baseballs to tap into that power. Middlebrooks hit .228 for his career which led to a .391 SLG and an absolutely unplayable .272 OBP. If Dalbec is a .228 hitter, it's probably at least a.228/.330/.440, which isn't a star or anything, but it's like a 105 wRC+ which will play with his defense. ----- EDIT: Here's that Middlebrooks 2010 game log: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=middle001wil&type=bgl&year=2010. They were being wonky last week so Middlebrooks' was probably not showing up. But yeah, the streakiness thing lines up.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 18, 2018 12:39:21 GMT -5
Dunnzo, my one contention with the above is that Dalbec also has a good amount of swing-and-miss in his game - it's not just what one might mistakenly call passivity that leads to the K's. 26.1% of his strikeouts were looking this year, which is probably a bit on the high end towards looking strikes but not incredibly so at first glance. I interpret that, given his volume of K's, to mean he strikes out more often than most in both ways, swinging and looking.
Also worth noting that percentage dropped a fair amount in Portland (ie, ratio tipped more towards swinging strikeouts), which could be a sss blip admittedly but I interpret as better pitchers creating more swinging strikes. I only saw 5 games of his in person this year, but he had plenty of ABs that didn't end in swinging strikeouts but included a swinging strike, which wouldn't get recorded as anything but the outcome.
This is the reason I keep saying I worry about the strikeouts and why James is right about the hit tool. It's not that he'll keep striking out the same amount, but that he'll have to keep improving just to maintain this rate and get to his power often enough. Certainly doesn't mean he can't and that's why his ceiling is among the highest in the system thing forward, but his projection has to account for that fact.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 18, 2018 13:13:03 GMT -5
Yes - absolutely. I was meaning to draw a distinction between Dalbec's approach compared to Middlebrooks' being the reason he'll be playable at a lower batting average than Middlebrooks was. But re-reading, I didn't really make it clear that all those swinging strikes are the reason why I'm so bearish on Dalbec's batting average in the first place. Dalbec will be fine if he can keep his batting average where Middlebrooks did, but there's good reason to be worried that he can't.
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Post by awall on Sept 19, 2018 6:31:02 GMT -5
I find Dalbec's hitting fascinating in that it seems fairly rare for a guy to have really good pitch recognition for the strike zone (I'm assuming he must based on his walk rate thus far). It seems like his K rate is a function of a "going for broke" swing. I wonder if, with a bit more experience and mentoring, he will develop a more opportunistic approach that improves his avg, even if it reduces his HR/AB ratio? Could he become more like a Thome than a Dunn?
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Post by patford on Sept 19, 2018 6:55:58 GMT -5
I find Dalbec's hitting fascinating in that it seems fairly rare for a guy to have really good pitch recognition for the strike zone (I'm assuming he must based on his walk rate thus far). It seems like his K rate is a function of a "going for broke" swing. I wonder if, with a bit more experience and mentoring, he will develop a more opportunistic approach that improves his avg, even if it reduces his HR/AB ratio? Could he become more like a Thome than a Dunn? Part of him striking out a lot is also taking a lot of strikes. I'm assuming that like most players who walk a lot he sees a lot of pitches per at bat.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2018 7:56:57 GMT -5
I find Dalbec's hitting fascinating in that it seems fairly rare for a guy to have really good pitch recognition for the strike zone (I'm assuming he must based on his walk rate thus far). It seems like his K rate is a function of a "going for broke" swing. I wonder if, with a bit more experience and mentoring, he will develop a more opportunistic approach that improves his avg, even if it reduces his HR/AB ratio? Could he become more like a Thome than a Dunn? Jim Thome was promoted straight from the Appy League to the Carolina League at 19 where he hit .308/.427/.462 with an 18.2% K rate, and then was in the majors a week after turning 21. Their age 23 seasons were pretty similar: Thome hit .268/.359/.523 with a 22.8% K rate. Dalbec hit .257/.361/.558 with a 32.4% K rate. Just, Dalbec was in High-A/Double-A whereas Thome was in the majors. Of course, unlike Thome, Dalbec is actually a third baseman rather Thome, whose job was to stand near third base and not hurt himself or Omar Vizquel. And there is a LOT of space to be worse than Jim Thome and be really, really, really good. If Dalbec puts up 1/3 of Thome's bWAR total I would be ecstatic. Adam Dunn would be a really good outcome for Bobby Dalbec. He hit 38 or more home runs in seven straight seasons! And remember, Dunn wasn't a hacker either - he waited through a ton of pitches, but also had a ton of swing and miss in his game. Approach-wise, Dunn, Thome, and Dalbec were all similar. Thome just was better at not missing, which is why he's in the Hall of Fame. Dunn didn't strike out particularly frequently in the minors, which is a good illustration of what Dalbec is up against. Like Hatfield said, simply sustaining the K rate where it stands while climbing the ladder isn't easy, or even something I'd be comfortable projecting. There's a real chance Dalbec strikes out 40%+ of the time at Triple-A and never gets more than a cup of coffee in the majors. That's why a guy who has Rafael Devers-like power and can also play defense isn't in the system's top five.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 19, 2018 11:37:24 GMT -5
Just something else to note: We assume that Dalbec could perhaps make it in the majors due to his obvious power AND his high BB% rates that could partially offset the low BAs. That said, his BB% vanished in his AA small sample (from 14.3% in Salem to 4.8% in Portland). If more advanced pitching means both increased swing & miss AND dramatically decreased BB%, thats going to be a problem. I'm sure his BB% will be higher than 4.8% next year but its definitely something to monitor in my opinion. .220/.320/.450 can play in the majors w/ average to above average D at 3B. I'm less enthusiastic about .220/.270/.450.
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Post by awall on Sept 19, 2018 11:39:55 GMT -5
I find Dalbec's hitting fascinating in that it seems fairly rare for a guy to have really good pitch recognition for the strike zone (I'm assuming he must based on his walk rate thus far). It seems like his K rate is a function of a "going for broke" swing. I wonder if, with a bit more experience and mentoring, he will develop a more opportunistic approach that improves his avg, even if it reduces his HR/AB ratio? Could he become more like a Thome than a Dunn? Jim Thome was promoted straight from the Appy League to the Carolina League at 19 where he hit .308/.427/.462 with an 18.2% K rate, and then was in the majors a week after turning 21. Their age 23 seasons were pretty similar: Thome hit .268/.359/.523 with a 22.8% K rate. Dalbec hit .257/.361/.558 with a 32.4% K rate. Of course, Dalbec was in High-A/Double-A whereas Thome was in the majors. Of course, unlike Thome, Dalbec is actually a third baseman rather Thome, whose job was to stand near third base and not hurt himself or Omar Vizquel. And there is a LOT of space to be worse than Jim Thome and be really, really, really good. If Dalbec puts up 1/3 of Thome's bWAR total I would be ecstatic. Adam Dunn would be a really good outcome for Bobby Dalbec. He hit 38 or more home runs in seven straight seasons! And remember, Dunn wasn't a hacker either - he waited through a ton of pitches, but also had a ton of swing and miss in his game. Approach-wise, Dunn, Thome, and Dalbec were all similar. Thome just was better at not missing, which is why he's in the Hall of Fame. Dunn didn't strike out particularly frequently in the minors, which is a good illustration of what Dalbec is up against. Like Hatfield said, simply sustaining the K rate where it stands while climbing the ladder isn't easy, or even something I'd be comfortable projecting. There's a real chance Dalbec strikes out 40%+ of the time at Triple-A and never gets more than a cup of coffee in the majors. That's why a guy who has Rafael Devers-like power and can also play defense isn't in the system's top five. Oh wow, I didn't realize Dunn's OBP was that high. Serves me right for relying on memory instead of looking up his stats before including him as a contrast to Thome!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 13, 2019 8:48:36 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 13, 2019 9:05:29 GMT -5
Just something else to note: We assume that Dalbec could perhaps make it in the majors due to his obvious power AND his high BB% rates that could partially offset the low BAs. That said, his BB% vanished in his AA small sample (from 14.3% in Salem to 4.8% in Portland). If more advanced pitching means both increased swing & miss AND dramatically decreased BB%, thats going to be a problem. I'm sure his BB% will be higher than 4.8% next year but its definitely something to monitor in my opinion. .220/.320/.450 can play in the majors w/ average to above average D at 3B. I'm less enthusiastic about .220/.270/.450. Well that concern seems to have gone away.
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Post by ramireja on May 14, 2019 11:26:35 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 14, 2019 11:32:36 GMT -5
And Duran is #9 on the Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 10, 2020 13:42:14 GMT -5
Not sure how this thread has been dormant for a year and a half.
Carrabis with Bobby's bombs so far. I'm getting a little excited he might actually be a major league power hitter.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 10, 2020 16:24:02 GMT -5
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 10, 2020 17:39:09 GMT -5
nice bump. Tempering enthusiasm as best as possible. Chavis lit it up early too. I will leave it to guys who look at this stuff to determine the differences in the players, but you have to love the possibilities here.
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