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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 3, 2016 18:59:37 GMT -5
While I am skeptical, like Norm, of stats at Lowell, I do like the fact that Dalbec seems to know why he is hitting better. That is a good sign. But we have seen some great hitting in Lowell in the past only to see the player falter in the upper levels. If he is for real then there is a logjam at 3B. We won't know for a while.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 3, 2016 20:28:56 GMT -5
His point, which I agree with, is that Dalbec is an experienced player from a big D1 program who is not necessarily being challenged at all in low A ball. His great numbers aren't likely predictive of how he'll do moving forward, when he'll have his swing-and-miss tendencies exposed by better FB velocity and improved breaking pitch command. The point is that, while its better than Dalbec struggling, success in SS A ball doesn't mean much for a college player (which was the general concern re: Benintendi last year, and really up until he did well in AA this year). It's great that he's done well, but some of us are reserving excitement until he succeeds against much better competition (and/or is much more age-advanced). Well said. Greenville will provide a better test. All that's being said is lets temper him being a super star. That is not pessimism, you are dealing with people on this site that do ALOT OF predictive data analysis. They provide a lot of great info. The data base is very small. If he is still doing great next year at this time your excitement will be shared by all. Actually, I don't even know if your last statement is true. Dalbec strikes me as one of those guys for whom AA, and AAA for that matter, could be huge challenges no matter how well he does up to those levels. He has contact issues that at any level could be exposed to an extent that could stymie him from going further up the ladder. He sort of strikes me as a similar circumstance to Henry Owens for sort of the opposite reasons: Dalbec is power and strength potentially stymied by swing and miss due to the subtleties of better pitching; Owens has been finesse and deception potentially stymied by lack of command and velocity.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 4, 2016 10:23:36 GMT -5
His point, which I agree with, is that Dalbec is an experienced player from a big D1 program who is not necessarily being challenged at all in low A ball. His great numbers aren't likely predictive of how he'll do moving forward, when he'll have his swing-and-miss tendencies exposed by better FB velocity and improved breaking pitch command. The point is that, while its better than Dalbec struggling, success in SS A ball doesn't mean much for a college player (which was the general concern re: Benintendi last year, and really up until he did well in AA this year). It's great that he's done well, but some of us are reserving excitement until he succeeds against much better competition (and/or is much more age-advanced). Well said. Greenville will provide a better test. All that's being said is lets temper him being a super star. That is not pessimism, you are dealing with people on this site that do ALOT OF predictive data analysis. They provide a lot of great info. The data base is very small. If he is still doing great next year at this time your excitement will be shared by all. FWIW, I do believe that there is a significant take-away, which is that his offensive performance this spring appears much more likely to be an outlier, meaning that the Sox probably got a bit of a steal on him (similar to them getting JBJ in the sandwich round after he looked like a top-5 before hurting his wrist). Basically, my major worry that Dalbec would just have way too much swing-and-miss right off the bat has been assuaged. Now, we'll see if he can continue to develop. It's tough not to love what he's done so far.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 4, 2016 10:26:08 GMT -5
Well said. Greenville will provide a better test. All that's being said is lets temper him being a super star. That is not pessimism, you are dealing with people on this site that do ALOT OF predictive data analysis. They provide a lot of great info. The data base is very small. If he is still doing great next year at this time your excitement will be shared by all. Actually, I don't even know if your last statement is true. Dalbec strikes me as one of those guys for whom AA, and AAA for that matter, could be huge challenges no matter how well he does up to those levels. He has contact issues that at any level could be exposed to an extent that could stymie him from going further up the ladder. He sort of strikes me as a similar circumstance to Henry Owens for sort of the opposite reasons: Dalbec is power and strength potentially stymied by swing and miss due to the subtleties of better pitching; Owens has been finesse and deception potentially stymied by lack of command and velocity. Interesting parallel, and feels accurate to me. Dalbec is going to have to make adjustments constantly, is my guess, especially once he reaches AA and beyond.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 4, 2016 11:07:39 GMT -5
Let's hope he's not another Jack Baker- (anyone here remember him ?) big strong righty first baseman in A ball with Jim Rice, great numbers but got exposed at the highest level. One thing has me enthused that he's got a shot- Ian pushed hard to have him placed higher in the rankings- and that's on the basis of his not yet public scouting.
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Post by chud on Sept 4, 2016 11:34:13 GMT -5
Let's hope he's not another Jack Baker- (anyone here remember him ?) big strong righty first baseman in A ball with Jim Rice, great numbers but got exposed at the highest level. One thing has me enthused that he's got a shot- Ian pushed hard to have him placed higher in the rankings- and that's on the basis of his not yet public scouting. It's funny, my first thought after reading about his strikeout issues then seeing the current power display was Greg Blosser...I kept waiting for that guy every year, and...nothing...but, ever the optimist, let's root for a Joey Gallo type w/ Dalbec (strikeouts, but made it to AAAA status so far) and not a Jerry Gallo type, as he's dead...
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 4, 2016 13:02:21 GMT -5
Let's hope he's not another Jack Baker- (anyone here remember him ?) big strong righty first baseman in A ball with Jim Rice, great numbers but got exposed at the highest level. One thing has me enthused that he's got a shot- Ian pushed hard to have him placed higher in the rankings- and that's on the basis of his not yet public scouting. Yes, I'm very interested in seeing more of the scouting information. I believe Chris Hatfield mentioned that it was pretty good, so we'll see what they say about his swing there. I'm also interested in seeing what they say about CJ Chatham, though he hasn't performed quite as well so far.
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 4, 2016 13:06:45 GMT -5
Actually, I don't even know if your last statement is true. Dalbec strikes me as one of those guys for whom AA, and AAA for that matter, could be huge challenges no matter how well he does up to those levels. He has contact issues that at any level could be exposed to an extent that could stymie him from going further up the ladder. He sort of strikes me as a similar circumstance to Henry Owens for sort of the opposite reasons: Dalbec is power and strength potentially stymied by swing and miss due to the subtleties of better pitching; Owens has been finesse and deception potentially stymied by lack of command and velocity. Interesting parallel, and feels accurate to me. Dalbec is going to have to make adjustments constantly, is my guess, especially once he reaches AA and beyond. True, but that's not exactly unusual. Anyone that wants to be successful needs to keep making adjustments, that's just the way the game works.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 4, 2016 15:48:25 GMT -5
Actually, I don't even know if your last statement is true. Dalbec strikes me as one of those guys for whom AA, and AAA for that matter, could be huge challenges no matter how well he does up to those levels. He has contact issues that at any level could be exposed to an extent that could stymie him from going further up the ladder. He sort of strikes me as a similar circumstance to Henry Owens for sort of the opposite reasons: Dalbec is power and strength potentially stymied by swing and miss due to the subtleties of better pitching; Owens has been finesse and deception potentially stymied by lack of command and velocity. Interesting parallel, and feels accurate to me. Dalbec is going to have to make adjustments constantly, is my guess, especially once he reaches AA and beyond. All hitters and pitchers make adjustments every day. It is part of the game. Good comparison to benintendi of last year. Big diff is that beni did not strikeout as much. All the way thru salem and Portland he made great contact with low strikeout rate. Next year at Greenville or assume he goes to Salem dalbec will see more and better breaking stuff. on a consistent basis. He has the potential to be a good player, but does he adjust to the curve and can he cut down on the K's. It is not being pessimistic just a little more conservative approach. A whole pile load of people have had a hard time adjusting to Lord Charles, the curve ball. I will still root for him and hope he does well. Just waiting to see a little more data.
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Post by adamoraz on Sept 4, 2016 17:17:43 GMT -5
Let's hope he's not another Jack Baker- (anyone here remember him ?) big strong righty first baseman in A ball with Jim Rice, great numbers but got exposed at the highest level. One thing has me enthused that he's got a shot- Ian pushed hard to have him placed higher in the rankings- and that's on the basis of his not yet public scouting. Yes, I'm very interested in seeing more of the scouting information. I believe Chris Hatfield mentioned that it was pretty good, so we'll see what they say about his swing there. I'm also interested in seeing what they say about CJ Chatham, though he hasn't performed quite as well so far. Ha! Ask and you shall receive I guess. I'll be looking forward to seeing that scouting info this week! And Groome too.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 4, 2016 18:04:28 GMT -5
Interesting parallel, and feels accurate to me. Dalbec is going to have to make adjustments constantly, is my guess, especially once he reaches AA and beyond. True, but that's not exactly unusual. Anyone that wants to be successful needs to keep making adjustments, that's just the way the game works. Of course, that wasn't the best way for me to put it. Dalbec's far from a polished product like Benintendi (or even JBJ to an extent). I think his hit tool is going to need a lot of development specifically, and he's going to be tested at every level. The hit tool components (recognizing spin, bat control, plate coverage) are often the toughest to develop, and there's a high risk of washout. It's the one "tool" where it's really more skill than raw talent (even defense)...but there are components (like spin recognition or fine motor control) that rely heavily on talent (neural task-switching, firing rate, cerebellar function). It just takes time to see if those talents are there or not, as opposed to having a strong arm or good speed, or even power. I loved the pick because I loved the shot-in-the-dark massive upside, so I think he's going to be a lot of fun to follow.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 4, 2016 20:23:42 GMT -5
Who is more likely to make it to the show? Dalbec, Chavis or neither?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 4, 2016 20:57:38 GMT -5
Who is more likely to make it to the show? Dalbec, Chavis or neither? Of those 3 choices, the highest probability outcome is probably neither.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 5, 2016 0:38:19 GMT -5
I like to see a player dominate a league. Not just struggle, adjust and succeed. Dalbec just had the best seasons in Lowell history. Benintendi and Youkilis were both very good. A little under 1000 OPS. Dalbec is 1125. Westmoreland and Kalish were younger and had very good seasons. A few good college bats were under 900 OPS. Mark Fischer, Matt Murton and Sam Travis. Doesn't guarantee a damn thing. But, my interest is piqued. My comp for Dalbec is Tim Naehring. He was going to be a damn good player before back troubles. Better than John Valentin. www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=9c813a84Just tab previous year to look at numbers.h
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texs31
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Posts: 5,206
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Post by texs31 on Sept 5, 2016 8:29:31 GMT -5
Let's hope he's not another Jack Baker- (anyone here remember him ?) big strong righty first baseman in A ball with Jim Rice, great numbers but got exposed at the highest level. One thing has me enthused that he's got a shot- Ian pushed hard to have him placed higher in the rankings- and that's on the basis of his not yet public scouting. It's funny, my first thought after reading about his strikeout issues then seeing the current power display was Greg Blosser...I kept waiting for that guy every year, and...nothing...but, ever the optimist, let's root for a Joey Gallo type w/ Dalbec (strikeouts, but made it to AAAA status so far) and not a Jerry Gallo type, as he's dead... You mean Jerry Callo. Everybody knows Jerry Gallo is dead (not sure I have the line quite right)
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Post by azblue on Sept 5, 2016 9:57:44 GMT -5
Tim Naehring? I loved Tim, but they are very different players. Naehring had nothing like the power that Dalbec has shown for years and, as I recall, Tim did not have Dalbec's arm. Naehring was a 3B/SS. Dalbec is a 3B/1B/P. What connection do you see between those two players?
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Post by tonyc on Sept 5, 2016 12:06:51 GMT -5
Telson nice breakdown of some of the neurological factors in hitting. I tend to more heavily weight the genetic factors than the environmental ones personally, but as you well know in that age old debate it's quite tricky. I recall Jeff Burroughs, for whom the Redsox nearly traded early in his career. As an infant a physician noted the remarkable coordination and stated he was going to probably become a professional athlete, most likely a baseball player. No doubt there is constant refinement and adjustment at all levels afterward. If I myself had worked like crazy, I doubt I would have had a shot at even a minor league career. Pitching, I feel is more of a skill weighting mechanics more heavily than natural ability.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 5, 2016 14:08:48 GMT -5
Tim Naehring? I loved Tim, but they are very different players. Naehring had nothing like the power that Dalbec has shown for years and, as I recall, Tim did not have Dalbec's arm. Naehring was a 3B/SS. Dalbec is a 3B/1B/P. What connection do you see between those two players? Mid-round picks, 3b vs SS/3B, good size for position, better than expected at beginning of career.Tim hit 15 HR's in 82 games at Pawtucket in 2nd full season. Tim would have been a 20 HR guy with good health.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Sept 5, 2016 14:30:02 GMT -5
I like Dalbec as a trade candidate considering the Sox depth at 3B and the fact he will always be a high K/low contact guy. He might have some helium this offseason.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 5, 2016 16:41:48 GMT -5
I like Dalbec as a trade candidate considering the Sox depth at 3B and the fact he will always be a high K/low contact guy. He might have some helium this offseason. I never get why a guy becomes a trade candidate based on the type of player he is. It's not like other teams won't know this. It's not even like you can say the D-Backs wouldn't know because he played college ball in their backyard... That point aside, I don't see any issue at 3B yet. Next year, you can start with Moncada in Pawtucket probably, or perhaps in the majors I guess, Devers in Portland, Chavis in Salem, Dalbec in Greenville. Now, midseason, that's a different story, but you never know what injuries, ineffectiveness, etc. will do to the "depth" we now see. Maybe one of them goes down for the year. Maybe Chavis continues to not hit, or gets moved to left field or something. Maybe Devers mashes and they move him to first because there's a potential opening there. Maybe someone stalls out. Who knows?
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 6, 2016 8:26:20 GMT -5
I hope dalbec turns into a legit prospect. Once benintendi and moncada graduate this system will look a heck of a lot worse. This is what happens when you have guys that are hyped and actually develop and perform so they don't have to stay in the minors at the upper levels. High level prospects don't stay productive in the upper minors very long because they get promoted. The guys that don't are Owens and Johnson and Vasquez and Swithart. These are all guys who would still be on prospect lists if they hadn't gotten too much playing time due to injuries last year. When you have all this young talent on your major league roster it's hard to get upset about the upper minors not having too much high end talent there: Xander Betts Bradley Benintendi Moncada Rodriguez Barnes As mentioned, they still have Kopech, Groome, Devers and Travis in the minors. How much more can we expect? The only way this year maybe could have gone better prospect wise is it Travis didn't get hurt and we were talking about him in the lineup instead of Shaw next year and not needing s free agent maybe. Although, if that were the case, I bet Moncada isn't here right now.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2016 10:36:17 GMT -5
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Post by azblue on Sept 6, 2016 14:34:38 GMT -5
Interesting that anyone could watch Dalbec a few times and confidently state that his ceiling is a .250-.260 hitter.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 6, 2016 16:34:00 GMT -5
Cundall's best work so far? I think it's up there. Highly recommanded read!
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ianrs
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Posts: 2,405
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Post by ianrs on Sept 6, 2016 16:47:52 GMT -5
The video is pretty amazing, too - incredible opposite field, in-game power. Love the weight transfer. Also, looks like a grown man at 21. Going to be interesting to see how he matures physically.
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