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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jan 14, 2018 12:46:17 GMT -5
He is one of my favorites also. I watched him a lot last year in spring training and he was hitting the ball hard consistently. Moreover, while he was striking out some, he was also walking a bunch. Then the season started and he got hurt and fell apart.
This is clearly a big year for him. I am hoping he is the breakout guy this year that Chavis was last year.
From what I saw, he works hard and if hard work is a factor he will get things straightened out.
Of course, I watched one long shot outfielder have a good spring training a couple of years ago and started calling him the next Daniel Nava and the next spring he totally regressed, the Red Sox cut him, and now I can't even remember his name.
So I supposed having one good spring training doesn't make a career.
Anyway, I think it is going to be very interesting to watch him this spring and year to see what happens. I will be in Fort Myers this February and March and he is one of the minor leaguers I am most interested in seeing.
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Post by jiant2520 on Jan 14, 2018 15:46:58 GMT -5
I am very much interested in him this year as well!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 15, 2018 22:30:28 GMT -5
He is one of my favorites also. I watched him a lot last year in spring training and he was hitting the ball hard consistently. Moreover, while he was striking out some, he was also walking a bunch. Then the season started and he got hurt and fell apart. This is clearly a big year for him. I am hoping he is the breakout guy this year that Chavis was last year. From what I saw, he works hard and if hard work is a factor he will get things straightened out. Of course, I watched one long shot outfielder have a good spring training a couple of years ago and started calling him the next Daniel Nava and the next spring he totally regressed, the Red Sox cut him, and now I can't even remember his name.So I supposed having one good spring training doesn't make a career. Anyway, I think it is going to be very interesting to watch him this spring and year to see what happens. I will be in Fort Myers this February and March and he is one of the minor leaguers I am most interested in seeing. First bold - saw the same, to the extent that when he hit the ball, it was hit hard, but he was also striking out a lot. I recall being worried if he kept striking out that much, but being optimistic if he was just working through spring training rust because of how he was hitting it when he did. Second bold - how long ago? Would love to try and guess. But yeah, watching guys in the spring can be tough, especially since you're only seeing them (most likely) only in their home games, and in a teeny sample size. It's something we have to deal with as well - hey, we've got a great four-day sample size in which we saw 12 at-bats plus BP, or saw a guy throw three innings. Here's what we think his career is going to look like...
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jan 19, 2018 11:46:50 GMT -5
He is one of my favorites also. I watched him a lot last year in spring training and he was hitting the ball hard consistently. Moreover, while he was striking out some, he was also walking a bunch. Then the season started and he got hurt and fell apart. This is clearly a big year for him. I am hoping he is the breakout guy this year that Chavis was last year. From what I saw, he works hard and if hard work is a factor he will get things straightened out. Of course, I watched one long shot outfielder have a good spring training a couple of years ago and started calling him the next Daniel Nava and the next spring he totally regressed, the Red Sox cut him, and now I can't even remember his name.So I supposed having one good spring training doesn't make a career. Anyway, I think it is going to be very interesting to watch him this spring and year to see what happens. I will be in Fort Myers this February and March and he is one of the minor leaguers I am most interested in seeing. First bold - saw the same, to the extent that when he hit the ball, it was hit hard, but he was also striking out a lot. I recall being worried if he kept striking out that much, but being optimistic if he was just working through spring training rust because of how he was hitting it when he did. Second bold - how long ago? Would love to try and guess. But yeah, watching guys in the spring can be tough, especially since you're only seeing them (most likely) only in their home games, and in a teeny sample size. It's something we have to deal with as well - hey, we've got a great four-day sample size in which we saw 12 at-bats plus BP, or saw a guy throw three innings. Here's what we think his career is going to look like... I think the spring training when this player looked good to me was 2016. Like Nava, he was signed out of an independent league. He had a pretty good year in the minors that year too. But the next spring I hardly saw him and he got cut before the year started. Jayce Ray was his name.
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Post by widewordofsport on Apr 22, 2018 22:05:35 GMT -5
I feel like we play this game a lot and it came up tonight in the main threads... 'power and strikeouts' can work at the MLB level... but it' snot going to improve if its already there at A ball.
Looking at the ridiculous comparison of Adam Dunn... his highest K% in minors was 24%, and was under 20 for his AA-AAA combined I believe. Dalbec has been 36% for 2017-2018. I hope he hits 30 HR this year and trade him as fast as someone will give you a low minors flier for him.
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Post by widewordofsport on Apr 22, 2018 22:07:41 GMT -5
I don't know how good a pitcher he is, but it would be a shame if pitching is his only path to the majors, and he never makes it because he waits until he is late 20's to go back to it.
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Post by Addam603 on May 11, 2018 14:43:23 GMT -5
Interesting note from Bobby Dalbec: he has actually cut his K% almost four points from last year’s numbers in Greenville. Down from 37.4 to 33.6. Still too high, but progressing in the right direction. His IsoP is also up from last year. Furthermore, his BABIP is way down from his previous stops. I’m not sure how long it takes BABIP to solidify in the minors, but his first three stops (including the short stop in GCL) had BABIPs of .478, .385, and .389. So far in Salem it’s .250. Not sure whether he was very lucky last year or what, but that’s a big difference. Long story short, the average and strikeouts for Dalbec are still areas for concern but there are definite positives if you look closer.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2018 11:39:25 GMT -5
Interesting note from Bobby Dalbec: he has actually cut his K% almost four points from last year’s numbers in Greenville. Down from 37.4 to 33.6. Still too high, but progressing in the right direction. His IsoP is also up from last year. Furthermore, his BABIP is way down from his previous stops. I’m not sure how long it takes BABIP to solidify in the minors, but his first three stops (including the short stop in GCL) had BABIPs of .478, .385, and .389. So far in Salem it’s .250. Not sure whether he was very lucky last year or what, but that’s a big difference. Long story short, the average and strikeouts for Dalbec are still areas for concern but there are definite positives if you look closer. FWIW, his K% when people were posting in this thread around 4/22 was 36% or so. He got a couple days off on April 23 and 24 because of an off day and a rainout and since then is striking out "only" 31.0% of the time. The BABIP thing with him this year is a little weird, but given how few balls he's putting into play to be fielded (49% of his PAs this year, which seems REALLY low without doing any research into whether that's correct or not, admittedly), he's going to be an outlier. And at any rate, the way we're evaluating him here doesn't have anything to do with BABIP luck. He's striking out a lot (33.3%, 3rd in the system (50 PA min)), walking a lot (12.9%, 8th in the system), and hitting for a ton of power, especially considering he's in Salem (.244 ISOp, 2nd in system; 29.2% HR/F%, 2nd in system). He's not hitting a lot of singles, but given that he's leading the system with 16 XBH, I doubt he's having bad BABIP luck so much as he's either crushing the ball or not hitting it at all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2018 20:32:47 GMT -5
S/O to radiohix for putting me on the scent on this:
Thru 5/23: .204/.337/.451, 8 HR, 59 K (34.3 %). Last 9 games: .308/.405/.655, 3 HR, 5 K (13.5%).
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2018 22:12:22 GMT -5
S/O to radiohix for putting me on the scent on this: Thru 5/23: .204/.337/.451, 8 HR, 59 K (34.3 %). Last 9 games: .308/.405/.655, 3 HR, 5 K (13.5%). You guys know how obsessed I am with MiLeaguers K% since the Moncada year in Salem lmao
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Post by rismith on Jun 5, 2018 9:28:30 GMT -5
Any word on if he did anything different or changed something? E.g. eliminated a leg kick, incorporated some new stride? Without something to point to this just looks like a small sample size issue. The track record for swing and miss is much longer than 9 games. I am hopeful and would love to see Dalbec find that something that unlocks his vast potential but just not putting much stock in a 9 game sample.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 7, 2018 20:39:39 GMT -5
He is starting to really develop into something...
tonight he hit his 19th home run of the season! A Salem record or close to it?
3 plus tools, including incredible power....he has to make the next top 100 prospects list
IMO he's a top 5 prospect in Red Sox organization
he should be promoted to AA
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 7, 2018 21:09:21 GMT -5
He is starting to really develop into something... tonight he hit his 19th home run of the season! A Salem record or close to it? 3 plus tools, including incredible power....he has to make the next top 100 prospects list IMO he's a top 5 prospect in Red Sox organization he should be promoted to AA This still seems a bit premature to me. I like Dalbec, and it seems like he's starting to put it together, but a 23 year old with a very very questionable hit tool in High-A does not scream top 100 prospect unless the other four tools or strong or the player projects to have at least an average hit tool, neither of which apply to Dalbec. Do you think Dalbec is the best prospect in the Red Sox system? Because there aren't any top 100 prospects in this system, in my opinion, so if you think he's top 100 then he'd be more than top 5 in the org. Also, what is the third plus tool you're referring to, because it's only power and arm for me.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 8, 2018 3:56:43 GMT -5
I’ve got the glove as a potential 3rd plus but I honestly have barely seen him since the cape league. I just know he’s a really good athlete w soft hands And judging by the amount of double plays he’s turned this year he’s gotten pretty quick over there
Damn good two way player in the cape league though, I’ll tell you what. 5 dingers isn’t anything to sneeze at on the cape and neither is a 1.31 w 16 k’s in 13 innings as a reliever
Of course his hit tool was still ROUGH back then too w 40 k’s in 92 abs
He’s a polarizing prospect to me. He either becomes a legitimate impact player that you bat in the middle of the order or he struggles in the upper minors and never makes it. I don’t really see a middle ground for him. All rides on that hit tool becoming at least below average. He can get away with it being below average. But. 30+% k rate in A ball as a 23 year old is tough.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2018 20:51:39 GMT -5
I’ve got the glove as a potential 3rd plus but I honestly have barely seen him since the cape league. I just know he’s a really good athlete w soft hands And judging by the amount of double plays he’s turned this year he’s gotten pretty quick over there Damn good two way player in the cape league though, I’ll tell you what. 5 dingers isn’t anything to sneeze at on the cape and neither is a 1.31 w 16 k’s in 13 innings as a reliever Of course his hit tool was still ROUGH back then too w 40 k’s in 92 abs He’s a polarizing prospect to me. He either becomes a legitimate impact player that you bat in the middle of the order or he struggles in the upper minors and never makes it. I don’t really see a middle ground for him. All rides on that hit tool becoming at least below average. He can get away with it being below average. But. 30+% k rate in A ball as a 23 year old is tough. Agreed. If te Hit tool gets to 40 or so (right now I’d say he’s 20+), then with 70 raw power and plus defense/plus arm, he’s probably a prototypical 5/6 hitter who might put up some .240/.340/.500+ seasons and might hit 30 HR. Basically Mike Napoli with defense. He certainly gets his walks. If the defense is there that’s a 2.5-3 WAR player. It just all hinges on the hit, because AA is going to expose that even more, when pitchers start commanding their breaking stuff a lot better. It’s at least nice to see his BA coming up and his K rate dropping a bit. Given his start, .249 isn’t bad.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 8, 2018 21:55:23 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd go plus with the glove. Maybe 55. Certainly potential it keeps developing, but I don't know that he's a wizard over there necessarily.
I really like what I see from Dalbec - when you see him at a time he's locked in, like he is right now, he looks like he should be the number 1 guy in the system, for real - but look at anyone in this system who's ever struck out at the rate he's striking out. It's not a good list.
There's no need to promote him this year. He's not getting to the majors before like, late next season. Spend the rest of this year in Salem, start 2019 in Portland. That's a fine timeline.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 9, 2018 0:35:27 GMT -5
IMO, really don't think he's that close to being MLB ready until he improves his swing identification a bit more. Granted, he's not as bad as some who have come thru the system as power hitters in identifying off speed hitters, but he seems to get off balance with them many times and believe that will show up at AAA especially and probably more at AA.
No offense, but he's sitting on a plus 35% k rate now and it would probably climb much higher if just next year he goes to AA unless he addresses his long swing and/or identification of off speed pitches.
Like the guy and do see possibility of another Dave Kingman lite, but it will take some doing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 9, 2018 0:53:38 GMT -5
Swing identification?
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 9, 2018 5:48:34 GMT -5
Love to see what he is doing and hopeful he has found something that has clicked but he is a long ways away from getting there. Maybe in todays game he fits but I have to see him do it at AA before I'm going to jump on his bandwagon and part of that is his age and level in the minors, along with the peripherals.
Lars Anderson taught me to temper expectations and he was twice the prospect. But then there is the occasional Travis Shaw who surprises so thats the way it goes.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 9, 2018 5:51:19 GMT -5
So I bring up Moreland a few days ago and give him credit for the season and contributions he has made for the Sox and what do I get? Crickets.
I guess his fellow MLB players get it though as they voted him onto the all star team. Congrats Mitch and thanks for the great play!!
edit: Hey Mods feel free to start a thread for Moreland as I probably should have, he deserves it.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 9, 2018 7:28:33 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd go plus with the glove. Maybe 55. Certainly potential it keeps developing, but I don't know that he's a wizard over there necessarily. I really like what I see from Dalbec - when you see him at a time he's locked in, like he is right now, he looks like he should be the number 1 guy in the system, for real - but look at anyone in this system who's ever struck out at the rate he's striking out. It's not a good list. There's no need to promote him this year. He's not getting to the majors before like, late next season. Spend the rest of this year in Salem, start 2019 in Portland. That's a fine timeline. I have to agree with Chris. When a couple of you said he had 3 plus tools, I was surprised. Great arm and great power are two for sure. I've been fortunate to see him 3 times, and he looks fine over at 3rd, but I'm not sure he is plus. He definitely looks the part. Remember Scott Rolen? Anyway, I totally agree about him making or breaking on how his hit skill goes. To his credit, he does seem to be improving over the last month. I have picked him last year and this one to be my break-out candidate. If he can just stay healthy this year, stay in Salem and put up some big numbers, and improve his 2 strike approach....we may have something in 2020. I was thrilled when we drafted him because of his 2 plus tools. Hopefully he adds to his list.
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Post by patford on Jul 9, 2018 7:52:56 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd go plus with the glove. Maybe 55. Certainly potential it keeps developing, but I don't know that he's a wizard over there necessarily. I really like what I see from Dalbec - when you see him at a time he's locked in, like he is right now, he looks like he should be the number 1 guy in the system, for real - but look at anyone in this system who's ever struck out at the rate he's striking out. It's not a good list. There's no need to promote him this year. He's not getting to the majors before like, late next season. Spend the rest of this year in Salem, start 2019 in Portland. That's a fine timeline. Don't current trends in MLB tend to abrogate concerns about the strikeouts ? What is the MLB batting average floor for a plus defender who hits 30 plus HRs with a fairly decent OBP due to the player having a good eye at the plate ?
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 9, 2018 8:23:36 GMT -5
Don't know that I'd go plus with the glove. Maybe 55. Certainly potential it keeps developing, but I don't know that he's a wizard over there necessarily. I really like what I see from Dalbec - when you see him at a time he's locked in, like he is right now, he looks like he should be the number 1 guy in the system, for real - but look at anyone in this system who's ever struck out at the rate he's striking out. It's not a good list. There's no need to promote him this year. He's not getting to the majors before like, late next season. Spend the rest of this year in Salem, start 2019 in Portland. That's a fine timeline. Don't current trends in MLB tend to abrogate concerns about the strikeouts ? What is the MLB batting average floor for a plus defender who hits 30 plus HRs with a fairly decent OBP due to the player having a good eye at the plate ? So that's an interesting question and I think it's kind of a complex answer. To answer your question about current trends, I think you're right:a player like Dalbec has a better chance of getting there than he did 30 years ago, because the worry isn't going to be about his raw strikeout number. If he is Aaron Judge (okay not Aaron Judge) or Joey Gallo, striking out 35% of the time but putting up a .350+ OBP and .500+ SLG as he climbs the ladder then nobody would care. Whereas in 1988 if he was striking out 200 times and not shortening his swing with two strikes he'd get crushed for it and hitting coaches would fall over themselves changing his approach. With that said, it's kind of self-evident that if a player just doesn't make contact enough then he's not going to make it. The problem not being "strikeouts" on its own, just "not hitting the baseball often enough to be a productive player"--which strikeouts are a useful shorthand for measuring. And players who strikeout a lot in the minors are going to strike out even more in the majors. Check out Gallo, who Dalbec is kind of the obvious comparison for: he hit .323/.463/.735 with 64 Ks in 246 PA as a 20-year-old at Myrtle Beach. Chris Davis hit .298/.340/.573 with 123 Ks in 418 PA at Bakersfield. Khris Davis hit .309/.415/.533 with 70 Ks in 371 PA at Brevard County. But that's the thing with Dalbec - the power is so big that it's not ridiculous to throw Gallo and the Davises into a comparison with him. This isn't like "Henry Owens walks a lot of guys, but so did Nolan Ryan!" when Nolan Ryan threw a baseball 10 mph harder than Owens did and was also made of cast iron. Dalbec's positives are major league positives.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 9, 2018 8:42:57 GMT -5
Maybe he'll develop into one of those guys who hits like .220 with 40 bombs and 180Ks like Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2018 8:44:14 GMT -5
Dalbec is certainly intriguing.
We now know you can strike out a ton and still manage a respectable batting average as we all wait for Aaron Judge to slide down into the .220s while he whiffs 220 times.
But he's an aberration and the probability is that Dalbec is more like Joey Gallo, and winds up the truest of the three true outcomes.
I think he ultimately makes it to the majors as a guy with BAs in the low .200s, even upper .100s, with 40 plus HRs/year in his best seasons and a guy who can push his OBP toward .300 with a lot of walks.
I also think he ultimately does those things for another team. Dalbec is the kind of guy I would think Dombrowski would consider as surplus with Devers over at 3b for the foreseeable future. Unless Devers is forced to move to 1b or DH (unlikely), I don't see Dalbec really playing for the Red Sox, but rather as a trade chip to help the Red Sox bring back some young pitching as guys have their contracts expiring.
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