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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 9, 2018 3:11:59 GMT -5
Really liking the Sox draft this year. Jarren Duran in particular has been crazy good. He must be the ultimate pest speed wise where he already has 6 triples haha. Feltman has been unfair as well in his few appearances. Now we just need the farm to not be touched unless its to add prospects
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 9, 2018 5:39:15 GMT -5
Really liking the Sox draft this year. Jarren Duran in particular has been crazy good. He must be the ultimate pest speed wise where he already has 6 triples haha. Feltman has been unfair as well in his few appearances. Now we just need the farm to not be touched unless its to add prospects ..... with 3 SB and 4 CS. Hmm. Somebody needs some instruction ..... As for an earlier comment about the influx of draftees and where will they all fit: Given the state of the Sox farm system right now, I think a purge of releases, more than usual, may be coming in the next couple of years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 9, 2018 8:56:47 GMT -5
Really liking the Sox draft this year. Jarren Duran in particular has been crazy good. He must be the ultimate pest speed wise where he already has 6 triples haha. Feltman has been unfair as well in his few appearances. Now we just need the farm to not be touched unless its to add prospects ..... with 3 SB and 4 CS. Hmm. Somebody needs some instruction ..... As for an earlier comment about the influx of draftees and where will they all fit: Given the state of the Sox farm system right now, I think a purge of releases, more than usual, may be coming in the next couple of years. Jarren Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to follow. Lowell is now the first box I check. ADD: Think about this triple, I don't recall ever seeing that, to left field no less: Ian Cundall Ian Cundall2B Jarren Duran (‘18 7th rd pick) w/four hits for Lowell. Has really impressed in looks this year. Tall, athletic frame. Plays extremely hard, plus-plus speed. Uses speed to put pressure on defense. Two infield 1B tonight and 3B on ball that LF cut off before warning track.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 11, 2018 4:37:34 GMT -5
Really liking the Sox draft this year. Jarren Duran in particular has been crazy good. He must be the ultimate pest speed wise where he already has 6 triples haha. Feltman has been unfair as well in his few appearances. Now we just need the farm to not be touched unless its to add prospects ..... with 3 SB and 4 CS. Hmm. Somebody needs some instruction ..... As for an earlier comment about the influx of draftees and where will they all fit: Given the state of the Sox farm system right now, I think a purge of releases, more than usual, may be coming in the next couple of years. My bad dude. I didnt see that particular stat. I was only looking at the 2b and 3b he has to this point. Maybe he has rediculous speed but has some work to do on pitcher reads, awareness etc..
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 11, 2018 4:41:21 GMT -5
..... with 3 SB and 4 CS. Hmm. Somebody needs some instruction ..... As for an earlier comment about the influx of draftees and where will they all fit: Given the state of the Sox farm system right now, I think a purge of releases, more than usual, may be coming in the next couple of years. Jarren Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to follow. Lowell is now the first box I check. ADD: Think about this triple, I don't recall ever seeing that, to left field no less: Ian Cundall Ian Cundall2B Jarren Duran (‘18 7th rd pick) w/four hits for Lowell. Has really impressed in looks this year. Tall, athletic frame. Plays extremely hard, plus-plus speed. Uses speed to put pressure on defense. Two infield 1B tonight and 3B on ball that LF cut off before warning track. Im beginning to do the same. It is certainly a small sample size, but impressive nonetheless. No matter who it is or how many games played it still certainly raises some eyebrows. Edit: It almost has the feel of when Dalbec mashed the year he was drafted. Durran obviously doesnt have the power like Dalbec, but I just mean from a "special" standpoint. Things can change, but shooting up the rankings by end of season seems plausible.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2018 10:21:35 GMT -5
So Duran's actually 4 for 7 on steals - still not good but better than 3 for 7.
No idea why our stats page shows 3 for 7. We'll look into it.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2018 3:50:00 GMT -5
So Duran's actually 4 for 7 on steals - still not good but better than 3 for 7. No idea why our stats page shows 3 for 7. We'll look into it. Haha small victories. Have you had a chance to see Duran live Chris? Im curious if he looks like someone that is exceeding his abilities (that we know of) or if this seems to be a legit hitter. With the numerous players you have seen im sure some players just stand out from the crowd. I know its not fair to ask where its a small sample size, but cant hurt to ask. I hope that 4-7 on the basepaths is mostly due to him figuring out pitchers, and things click quickly. There are plenty of players that have plus speed, but below average awareness on the bases. Is plus-plus speed generally just considered elite speed? For example players like Dee Gordon, Trea Turner and Billy Hamilton would be elite as you know. I am just trying to understand if there is variation in players with a plus-plus tool or if its similar potential. Awareness is a whole different thing so you cant say all elite will steal 60 bases of course. Edit: I just checked out Duran's college stats. Last year was very good in the SB department, but his first two years at Long Beach State are fairly concerning. Particularly 13 sb and 10 cs freshman year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2018 9:26:12 GMT -5
I live in DC, so no. Ian has and has tweeted about him though.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 12, 2018 11:02:48 GMT -5
Speaking of....this is a good home for that tweet:
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 15, 2018 3:35:32 GMT -5
Thanks. I will just have to get to a game at some point. Good an excuse as any haha.
Edit: Adding to my confusion, Duran went 1 for 5 tonight while getting picked off while on base. I am starting to lean towards some heavy work in the recognition/awareness department. Im sure they will find a way to maximize his speed. At least it is something that's teachable where speed itself isn't.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 26, 2018 4:02:31 GMT -5
Duran has continued to rake. I almost cant believe the stats he is puting up so far. Would it not make sense to move him up a little at this point to see if he can be challenged? I dont really pay attention to how the Sox usually handle newly drafted guys, but I have seen Feltman move up already. They very well may think that he should stay where he is to acclimate to pro ball, but he is in a situation where its not proving to be a challenge. I do get that theres generally no reason to rush players as well.
Does anyone know which SB stats are correct as of 7/26/18? The soxprospects site shows 11 sb 5 cs, and the MILB site shows 12 sb 4 cs. Either way it seems like his baserunning is improving. This draft is looking really good at the moment. Its nice to have something to get excited about after the systems were depleted for the most part. Between Duran, Feltman and The Man Beast that is Bobby Dalbec its starting to get exciting again!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 26, 2018 5:21:05 GMT -5
I believe MiLB's stats are correct. The 1 extra CS has been there for a while now and has been mentioned previously.
That said, SP's stats are awesome.
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Post by michael on Jul 26, 2018 11:52:30 GMT -5
[/quote]Jarren Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to follow. Lowell is now the first box I check. ADD: Think about this triple, I don't recall ever seeing that, to left field no less: Ian Cundall Ian Cundall2B Jarren Duran (‘18 7th rd pick) w/four hits for Lowell. Has really impressed in looks this year. Tall, athletic frame. Plays extremely hard, plus-plus speed. Uses speed to put pressure on defense. Two infield 1B tonight and 3B on ball that LF cut off before warning track. [/quote] I completely understand. I felt much the same when Donnie Sadler and later Jacoby Ellsbury we’re first year rookie mlers. I’d be interested in seeing, albeit SSS, how many, if any, of the CS were picked offs as opposed to straight steals or blown hit and runs. Still base running errors to be sure.
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Post by borisman on Jul 26, 2018 12:15:53 GMT -5
J arren Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to follow. Lowell is now the first box I check. ADD: Think about this triple, I don't recall ever seeing that, to left field no less: Ian Cundall Ian Cundall 2B Jarren Duran (‘18 7th rd pick) w/four hits for Lowell. Has really impressed in looks this year. Tall, athletic frame. Plays extremely hard, plus-plus speed. Uses speed to put pressure on defense. Two infield 1B tonight and 3B on ball that LF cut off before warning track. [/quote] I completely understand. I felt much the same when Donnie Sadler and later Jacoby Ellsbury we’re first year rookie mlers. I’d be interested in seeing, albeit SSS, how many, if any, of the CS were picked offs as opposed to straight steals or blown hit and runs. Still base running errors to be sure. [/quote] Not to go off topic but one player whose development I'm following is Brandon Howlett. He still has a bunch of swing and miss in his game. If he fixes that part of it, watch out. Edit: Sorry I had bold my reply. The quotation marks didn't work for original quote.
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Post by costpet on Jul 26, 2018 12:41:38 GMT -5
I see the beginnings of a really good farm system. It might take a few years and more good drafts, but I like the direction they are going.
Dalbec needs to move up. Fellman, too.
Ball needs to...uh...hit.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 27, 2018 10:31:21 GMT -5
I see the beginnings of a really good farm system. It might take a few years and more good drafts, but I like the direction they are going. Dalbec needs to move up. Fellman, too. Ball needs to...uh...hit. I agree. Its finally starting to "feel" like the system from a few years back. It is absulutely not even close in talent or really comparable, but I only mean in the sense that we should produce some better talent. I saw that Ball was taking swings the other day. Should be interesting if the Sox decide to run with it. In the article I read Ball said it was only to do something different, and take his mind off some things. Obviously, this could be a way to keep it hidden for now, but it really could just be his way to let off steam (or break routine).
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 31, 2018 5:46:37 GMT -5
How is it possible to have 5 doubles and 10 triples in this few games? Lol. You have to be blazing fast (which he is) or extremely lucky. Most times you see a triple when a player plays a ball in the outfield incorrectly. This kid is going to be fun to watch.
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Post by costpet on Jul 31, 2018 7:28:04 GMT -5
Yes. He's the first guy I look at on the nightly Spinners box score. Overall, great draft this year.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Aug 4, 2018 1:01:17 GMT -5
It looks like my initial post for this thread has been aswered haha. I didnt take into account the trade for Kinsler obviously, but Renda has finally been summoned! I have long been a fan of Phillips, but it was too hard to ignore Renda since his signing. I like to see these guys get shots because you never know where there may be a diamond in the rough. Im not saying TR will be, but still getting his shot. I was thinking Lin would get the call, maybe he does, but there was a better option. Lins defensive capabilities are superior, but he seems to be a lot more empty with hitting stats. Aka he will hit an empty .260 or something. Acceptable but not great (Our new Calvin Pokey Reese! haha).
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2018 11:33:11 GMT -5
Duran’s page says he lacks power, but I’m wondering from people who have seen him if he has any power potential? He is a pretty big kid (given his plus plus speed, I was amazed to see how big he’s listed).
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Post by ramireja on Aug 5, 2018 15:16:37 GMT -5
Duran’s page says he lacks power, but I’m wondering from people who have seen him if he has any power potential? He is a pretty big kid (given his plus plus speed, I was amazed to see how big he’s listed). So up front I haven't seen the guy place but a couple of thoughts: Duran had three very statistically similar years on Long Beach State and posted some puny ISOs ranging between .061 and .090. His summer stats in the West Coast and Cape Cod Leagues were no different with ISOs of .086 and .087 respectively. So that said, his current ISO of .198 in our system is certainly the outlier and my guess is that it will go down over time rather than go up. Now that said, the optimist me would also could see power potential moving forward. First, he's listed at 6'2", 200, so the frame would suggest he has some raw strength. Also, I believe on one of the podcasts, Chris or Ian mentioned a complete lack of power among Long Beach State players that might reflect an organizational philosophy to prioritize putting the bat on the ball even if that means a GB heavy approach. With his speed, he may have been trying to do that more often that not. Its totally plausible that he has some raw strength and that with a change in approach, he could unlock some power.....perhaps he's doing that already, his 2HR match his collegiate career total.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Aug 6, 2018 5:28:01 GMT -5
Duran’s page says he lacks power, but I’m wondering from people who have seen him if he has any power potential? He is a pretty big kid (given his plus plus speed, I was amazed to see how big he’s listed). So up front I haven't seen the guy place but a couple of thoughts: Duran had three very statistically similar years on Long Beach State and posted some puny ISOs ranging between .061 and .090. His summer stats in the West Coast and Cape Cod Leagues were no different with ISOs of .086 and .087 respectively. So that said, his current ISO of .198 in our system is certainly the outlier and my guess is that it will go down over time rather than go up. Now that said, the optimist me would also could see power potential moving forward. First, he's listed at 6'2", 200, so the frame would suggest he has some raw strength. Also, I believe on one of the podcasts, Chris or Ian mentioned a complete lack of power among Long Beach State players that might reflect an organizational philosophy to prioritize putting the bat on the ball even if that means a GB heavy approach. With his speed, he may have been trying to do that more often that not. Its totally plausible that he has some raw strength and that with a change in approach, he could unlock some power.....perhaps he's doing that already, his 2HR match his collegiate career total. Great info! To be honest I didnt realize his ISOs were so low! It is difficult to not be optimistic about him based on what he has done so far, but im sure we will have to pump the brakes at some point. He certainly didn't help us (for the better) with his 5-5 game tonight! Duran certainly has the size that suggests some power hidden under that jersey, but only time will tell. For what its worth he has hit the 2 HR, but also has produced 5 2b and 10 3b as well. That, to me, makes me believe hes not just slapping at the ball, and running like hell. So hes clearly a gap hitter at minimum so far. I am sure with more experience, weight gain, pitch recognition, K zone judgement etc.. he will be able to sell out on mistake pitches. That will be a solid point to see his power potential. I look at it as a similar scenario as Michael Chavis. Chavis was the opposite and always looking to sell out. so way different in that respect, but as he matured he learned what to smash vs going with the pitch. So Duran will figure out the same, and allow him to open up some.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2018 8:25:12 GMT -5
I believe his first HR was an inside the park job.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2018 8:37:33 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 30, 2019 13:17:38 GMT -5
Hard not to start getting excited about Duran. In what ways is he different from Jacoby Ellsbury? I hate to do the comp, but it's just begging to be made.
I looked up Ellsbury's scouting report and loved this line in it: "Doesn't slump too often because you can't turn off his blazing speed."
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