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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 30, 2019 13:23:35 GMT -5
They are similar, but Ellsbury hit the ball with an authority at this point in his development that Duran does not. Duran looks like he might have the physical tools to get there with some adjustments, but that's no guarantee. That said, Ellsbury also has (had?) a 30+ bWAR career and had two season when he got MVP votes, so there's a lot of space for Duran to be Ellsbury-lite and still very productive.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 30, 2019 13:42:02 GMT -5
They are similar, but Ellsbury hit the ball with an authority at this point in his development that Duran does not. Duran looks like he might have the physical tools to get there with some adjustments, but that's no guarantee. That said, Ellsbury also has (had?) a 30+ bWAR career and had two season when he got MVP votes, so there's a lot of space for Duran to be Ellsbury-lite and still very productive. Yeah, minor caveat. The comp was meant as the non-2011 Ellsbury, which may go down as one of the most bizarre outlier seasons of all-time, in which he got almost 1/3rd of his career WAR.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2019 15:10:01 GMT -5
They are similar, but Ellsbury hit the ball with an authority at this point in his development that Duran does not. Duran looks like he might have the physical tools to get there with some adjustments, but that's no guarantee. That said, Ellsbury also has (had?) a 30+ bWAR career and had two season when he got MVP votes, so there's a lot of space for Duran to be Ellsbury-lite and still very productive. Based on ? Can you explain then why Duran is out IsoPing Jacoby at every level ? Jacoby had a .119 IsoP at Salem. Jarren has a .159 IsoP. I see posts saying he hits infield singles and goes opposite field yet that's not at all what I've seen in the limited looks I've seen on MilB. I've only seen line drives and hard grounders to all fields. I'm really curious where that's coming from.
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 30, 2019 17:06:58 GMT -5
They are similar, but Ellsbury hit the ball with an authority at this point in his development that Duran does not. Duran looks like he might have the physical tools to get there with some adjustments, but that's no guarantee. That said, Ellsbury also has (had?) a 30+ bWAR career and had two season when he got MVP votes, so there's a lot of space for Duran to be Ellsbury-lite and still very productive. Based on ? Can you explain then why Duran is out IsoPing Jacoby at every level ? Jacoby had a .119 IsoP at Salem. Jarren has a .159 IsoP. I see posts saying he hits infield singles and goes opposite field yet that's not at all what I've seen in the limited looks I've seen on MilB. I've only seen line drives and hard grounders to all fields. I'm really curious where that's coming from. Because, in college when he went to the college world series, he was spraying line drives/gappers all over the place. That was his scouting report. So, if you're talking about the small amount of time he took adjusting to wooden bats in Mil idk what to tell you. After that he was a lefty playing in Fenway. This was also after they changed the bats the first time. So he wasn't hitting missles off the handle like 90s college ball (lol) Also Jacoby had a lot of leverage in his swing even early. Which may be a separator. However feet of lightening has a better name than even Jacoby
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 30, 2019 18:14:15 GMT -5
Duran is 7th in the Carolina League in contact to the opposite field, 5th in line drive rate, 12th in ground ball rate, 12th-lowest pull %, and dead last in fly ball rate. It's quite a profile and I can see why it, along with his speed, is giving a minor league defense fits.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2019 18:20:06 GMT -5
Based on ? Can you explain then why Duran is out IsoPing Jacoby at every level ? Jacoby had a .119 IsoP at Salem. Jarren has a .159 IsoP. I see posts saying he hits infield singles and goes opposite field yet that's not at all what I've seen in the limited looks I've seen on MilB. I've only seen line drives and hard grounders to all fields. I'm really curious where that's coming from. Because, in college when he went to the college world series, he was spraying line drives/gappers all over the place. That was his scouting report. So, if you're talking about the small amount of time he took adjusting to wooden bats in Mil idk what to tell you. After that he was a lefty playing in Fenway. This was also after they changed the bats the first time. So he wasn't hitting missles off the handle like 90s college ball (lol) Also Jacoby had a lot of leverage in his swing even early. Which may be a separator. However feet of lightening has a better name than even Jacoby I don't know what to tell you but in the first 2 years of Jarren vs the first two years of Jacoby, same ages, same levels, Jarren is out powering Jacoby. Better IsoP, it's just the facts. It wasn't until Jacoby reached Portland that he showed any power. For kicks, I watched the three hits from yesterday's game. First inning vs RHP Ball. foul,foul. single. The single was a Baltimore chop that came down near the second base bag. 90% of the players in the majors would have beaten it out. Third inning vs RHP foul,foul,ball,foul,triple. The triple was a line drive to the base of the wall between the right fielder and center fielder. It would have taken a major league outfielder with the ability to not use a cutoff man from the warning track to keep him at second. They tried a relay and he went in standing up. ninth inning vs LHP swinging strike, foul tip, ball, foul, double. The double was a hard hit ball down the third base line. They would have had to been playing the line against a left handed batter to get to that. It wasn't close. ADD: For those of you with MiLB, the triple is worth a look, note how fast and sharp he rounds second base. It's almost like there was no speed drop there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2019 21:41:51 GMT -5
For me the only real difference at the plate is the K rate, where Ellsbury had half the K rate that Duran does.
The bigger separator might be defense, where Duran is still learning CF while Ellsbury covered a ton of ground and fielded the position well.
The big thing for Duran for me is waiting for that BABIP to at least drop SOMEWHAT. Over .500 is kind of nuts, especially with a 52% ground ball rate.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 30, 2019 21:55:51 GMT -5
I don't know what to tell you but in the first 2 years of Jarren vs the first two years of Jacoby, same ages, same levels, Jarren is out powering Jacoby. Better IsoP, it's just the facts. It wasn't until Jacoby reached Portland that he showed any power. I mean, you know as well as I do that better tools don't necessarily lead to better production. Duran doesn't loft and drive the ball the way Ellsbury did at the same age. That doesn't mean some other combination of skills (and maybe luck) can't contribute to him outslugging Ellsbury. I don't want it to make it sound like I'm down on Duran. Very, very much the opposite. I mentioned it in a gameday thread previously, but I think he could play in the majors this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2019 22:36:24 GMT -5
Isn't it this year where they start to limit the September call ups ?
Defensively Duran has the tools edge, Jacoby the experience edge. Jacoby always had a minus arm.
It's interesting to me because as I stated earlier, Duran is my favorite follow and Jacoby was also my favorite follow. For both I pretty much checked the boxes every day from the get go. Duran seems like a hit them where they're pitched hitter and also a "hit 'em where they ain't" hitter. He has the hand and bat speed to be successful with that approach.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 30, 2019 22:59:07 GMT -5
Isn't it this year where they start to limit the September call ups ? Roster expansion changes are for 2020. I believe the elimination of the waiver trade deadline was the only difference this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 30, 2019 23:23:46 GMT -5
For some BABIP perspective...
Last year the MLB Leader was JDM at .375
So far, there are 13 players with higher BABIP's than JDM had last year with the leader being Tim Anderson at .435. BABIP will normalize.
Duran's BABIP went up again tonight.
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Post by ramireja on May 1, 2019 16:04:46 GMT -5
The craziest thing to me about Duran is that his numbers in college are so drastically different from now. In none of his three seasons at Long Beach State did he ever hit above .310 which isn't that high of a threshold in college for a legitimate draft prospect. In none of his stops at Lowell, Greenville, and now Salem has he hit below .340. Similarly, his BABIPs in college ranged from .322 to .379, and now range from .406 to .514 across his professional career.
Before someone jumps in and explains that Long Beach State preaches a 'hit the ball in the ground and run it out' approach, I get that...but was he truly never even trying to hit line drives in college? If so, thats kind of crazy. I mean he still hits GBs at a healthy rate now, over 50% at each stop. Was he hitting >60% GBs in college?! Its certainly not like we should expect the defenses to be better in the Big West than in the Minors so the BABIP difference is really notable. The difference in his numbers overall is pretty astonishing, and that it happened immediately after he was drafted (and didn't take a year or two to develop) is also kind of crazy.
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Post by patford on May 1, 2019 19:01:09 GMT -5
The craziest thing to me about Duran is that his numbers in college are so drastically different from now. In none of his three seasons at Long Beach State did he ever hit above .310 which isn't that high of a threshold in college for a legitimate draft prospect. In none of his stops at Lowell, Greenville, and now Salem has he hit below .340. Similarly, his BABIPs in college ranged from .322 to .379, and now range from .406 to .514 across his professional career. Before someone jumps in and explains that Long Beach State preaches a 'hit the ball in the ground and run it out' approach, I get that...but was he truly never even trying to hit line drives in college? If so, thats kind of crazy. I mean he still hits GBs at a healthy rate now, over 50% at each stop. Was he hitting >60% GBs in college?! Its certainly not like we should expect the defenses to be better in the Big West than in the Minors so the BABIP difference is really notable. The difference in his numbers overall is pretty astonishing, and that it happened immediately after he was drafted (and didn't take a year or two to develop) is also kind of crazy. More than that. The guy is six foot two inches and two-hundred pounds. And he clearly has very good hand-eye coordination. What if he taps into some power that must be there.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 2, 2019 6:28:17 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury got promoted to Portland after his 96th pro game. Duran has 91. Jacoby had a higher A+ percentage though. Jacoby also had more SB, 48 to 35.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 2, 2019 17:38:34 GMT -5
steve: Keith: Very impressive year plus for Red sox prospect Jarren Duran. Profile seems to be slap hitter with speed/ What are your thoughts here. Also does CJ Chatham have a big league future in him?
Keith Law: Duran is legit, chance to be a regular. Can really hit. Chatham probably a UT.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2019 17:44:07 GMT -5
steve: Keith: Very impressive year plus for Red sox prospect Jarren Duran. Profile seems to be slap hitter with speed/ What are your thoughts here. Also does CJ Chatham have a big league future in him? Keith Law: Duran is legit, chance to be a regular. Can really hit. Chatham probably a UT. Law fails to note that he was the only major prospect writer to leave Duran off his rankings for the club this offseason. He did rank Elih Marrero. So... :shrug: To be fair I'll own that we were otherwise the lowest at 16.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 2, 2019 18:09:42 GMT -5
We have posters that think the evaluators have seen every player and evaluated every player. That just isn't the case. Even with the Top50 which would get the most attention, Kieth says he's only seen half this spring. He counts on input from people he trusts. That's the way it works:
Michael: How much confidence do you have in ranking a player in the top 50 that you’ve never seen but have heard great things about from others you trust?
Keith Law: I do enough work on those players that I feel pretty confident in the 50 guys I listed. I’ve seen 25 of the 50 on my list so far this spring, not counting anyone I saw last summer.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 2, 2019 18:53:34 GMT -5
While Long Beach might have a hitting philosophy that may not have been beneficial to Durran's stats, the program has long had a reputation for being excellent at preparing kids for the next level. They've had their ups and downs, and periods were they did get the top kids, but I remember a game years ago where the dirt dogs killed a USC team that was stacked with kids who were drafted high out of high school. The LB kids just seemed to have a different mentality compared to the SC kids. www.foxsports.com/west/story/major-league-baseball-loves-long-beach-state-061215
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on May 3, 2019 11:20:47 GMT -5
In his last 5 games he struck out 8 times to rise his K% to 21.1% which is not ideal for 22 years old in High A Ball who doesn't project to have longball power and isn't very patient at plate. I'm intrigued by the tools of mini-Ichiro but I'll wait till he gets to AA to hop on the bandwagon.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2019 12:29:01 GMT -5
It's worth re-reading the Fangraphs take on Duran before the season started. These quotes may hint a little at what's been going on: That still doesn't explain the absurd .519 BABIP he's currently sporting. That's not sustainable of course. That said, he's been over .400 since he came into the system as others have pointed out. He could shave .200 points of this season's number in the majors and still carry a high-level bat. And all he wants to do is play baseball... Add: Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) has a prospects chat going on right now. There was a question about Duran and re-setting his future value. Here's the Q & A:
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2019 12:42:28 GMT -5
In his last 5 games he struck out 8 times to rise his K% to 21.1% which is not ideal for 22 years old in High A Ball who doesn't project to have longball power and isn't very patient at plate. I'm intrigued by the tools of mini-Ichiro but I'll wait till he gets to AA to hop on the bandwagon. His BB rate is 8.8% so I don't agree that patience is an issue. He's also hitting .400, so I don't think I'd push for him to be more patient than that. At least in theory, High A is usually something of a challenge for a hitter in his first pro season - a K rate in the low 20's (it's showing 20.4% now) really doesn't bother me, especially for someone who is basically never popping the ball up.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2019 15:50:26 GMT -5
I'm down with this. We need some realism here. His on-base pct is .456! And while walks are a small part of that, the hits are such a large part that the patience thing is a little overblown. Once his BA starts to come down (it will... right???) he can look to get on base anyway he can, presumably more of that coming from bases on balls. But for now he's playing see-the-ball & hit-the-ball and he's doing that as well as anyone at the A+ level.
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Post by m1keyboots on May 4, 2019 21:00:14 GMT -5
Because, in college when he went to the college world series, he was spraying line drives/gappers all over the place. That was his scouting report. So, if you're talking about the small amount of time he took adjusting to wooden bats in Mil idk what to tell you. After that he was a lefty playing in Fenway. This was also after they changed the bats the first time. So he wasn't hitting missles off the handle like 90s college ball (lol) Also Jacoby had a lot of leverage in his swing even early. Which may be a separator. However feet of lightening has a better name than even Jacoby I don't know what to tell you but in the first 2 years of Jarren vs the first two years of Jacoby, same ages, same levels, Jarren is out powering Jacoby. Better IsoP, it's just the facts. It wasn't until Jacoby reached Portland that he showed any power. For kicks, I watched the three hits from yesterday's game. First inning vs RHP Ball. foul,foul. single. The single was a Baltimore chop that came down near the second base bag. 90% of the players in the majors would have beaten it out. Third inning vs RHP foul,foul,ball,foul,triple. The triple was a line drive to the base of the wall between the right fielder and center fielder. It would have taken a major league outfielder with the ability to not use a cutoff man from the warning track to keep him at second. They tried a relay and he went in standing up. ninth inning vs LHP swinging strike, foul tip, ball, foul, double. The double was a hard hit ball down the third base line. They would have had to been playing the line against a left handed batter to get to that. It wasn't close. ADD: For those of you with MiLB, the triple is worth a look, note how fast and sharp he rounds second base. It's almost like there was no speed drop there. . Maybe we misunderstood each other I was only talking about why he may have been rated higher coming out of college. From a power standpoint. One had like 40 doubles and 20 home runs in his college career one had 20 doubles and two. Don't get me wrong we would all love if he keeps this up until the end of time. However I'm reading his Bapip is basically an area code around here (571) While I'm not saying it's a mirage, I will say water is a little wet.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 4, 2019 21:30:31 GMT -5
I don't know what to tell you but in the first 2 years of Jarren vs the first two years of Jacoby, same ages, same levels, Jarren is out powering Jacoby. Better IsoP, it's just the facts. It wasn't until Jacoby reached Portland that he showed any power. For kicks, I watched the three hits from yesterday's game. First inning vs RHP Ball. foul,foul. single. The single was a Baltimore chop that came down near the second base bag. 90% of the players in the majors would have beaten it out. Third inning vs RHP foul,foul,ball,foul,triple. The triple was a line drive to the base of the wall between the right fielder and center fielder. It would have taken a major league outfielder with the ability to not use a cutoff man from the warning track to keep him at second. They tried a relay and he went in standing up. ninth inning vs LHP swinging strike, foul tip, ball, foul, double. The double was a hard hit ball down the third base line. They would have had to been playing the line against a left handed batter to get to that. It wasn't close. ADD: For those of you with MiLB, the triple is worth a look, note how fast and sharp he rounds second base. It's almost like there was no speed drop there. . Maybe we misunderstood each other I was only talking about why he may have been rated higher coming out of college. From a power standpoint. One had like 40 doubles and 20 home runs in his college career one had 20 doubles and two. Don't get me wrong we would all love if he keeps this up until the end of time. However I'm reading his Bapip is basically an area code around here (571) While I'm not saying it's a mirage, I will say water is a little wet. Yes, I misunderstood what you were saying, my bad. I don't think anyone expects him to maintain a .500+ BABIP but even a 150 pt drop from his current level to the majors would put him in pretty elite company.
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2019 19:59:09 GMT -5
Duran’s page says he lacks power, but I’m wondering from people who have seen him if he has any power potential? He is a pretty big kid (given his plus plus speed, I was amazed to see how big he’s listed). So up front I haven't seen the guy place but a couple of thoughts: Duran had three very statistically similar years on Long Beach State and posted some puny ISOs ranging between .061 and .090. His summer stats in the West Coast and Cape Cod Leagues were no different with ISOs of .086 and .087 respectively. So that said, his current ISO of .198 in our system is certainly the outlier and my guess is that it will go down over time rather than go up. Now that said, the optimist me would also could see power potential moving forward. First, he's listed at 6'2", 200, so the frame would suggest he has some raw strength. Also, I believe on one of the podcasts, Chris or Ian mentioned a complete lack of power among Long Beach State players that might reflect an organizational philosophy to prioritize putting the bat on the ball even if that means a GB heavy approach. With his speed, he may have been trying to do that more often that not. Its totally plausible that he has some raw strength and that with a change in approach, he could unlock some power.....perhaps he's doing that already, his 2HR match his collegiate career total. Long Beach definitely emphasizes small ball, contact-oriented, which kinda plays into the traditional (Willie Mays Hayes?) approach that’s supposed to benefit speedsters. Duran still hits a good share of GB, but he makes hard contact and has shown oppo gap power with plenty of LD. With his build and the likelihood he adds strength, plus an overall org philosophy stressing hitting for damage (including LA), I think those IsoP numbers will end up in the .150-.170 range. There’s been a bump from XBH due to speed/weak defense, so I think AA will start revealing a closer-to-real IsoP. That said, I certainly wouldn’t rule out Duran adding more power with age and experience. And there’s something to his BABIPs that’s not *just* speed/luck, because Ellsbury and Gardner put up .330s and .330-400 (higher numbers at lower levels) respectively; Billy Hamilton was .370-400 at lower levels with much lower IsoP. Duran is at .450+ in 400+ PA, so I suspect it’s a combo of gap strength (Ellsbury), superb speed (Ells and Hamilton, and arguably early Gardner too), and an opposite-field approach (which coincides with inflated BABIP generally).
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