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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 9:59:54 GMT -5
Wait, that's even less of a pessimistic take than what I just described! He's in Salem! How is mid-next year pessimistic? "More likely 2021" I realize where he's at but I also realize what he's accomplishing. Anything long of three weeks into next season is pessimistic to me. More likely 2021 is Debbie Downer territory. Personally I think he'll be in Boston this year and not as a pinch runner but that is admittedly optimistic extreme but I don't see anything in his game that won't play up as he rises. When he goes to Portland and puts up video game numbers while JBJ continues his 4 year offensive slide, the Sox might be hard pressed to not give him a shot. For JBJ, 2016 is getting to be a long time ago. He's 22, a year younger than when Ellsbury replaced Crisp but, Crisp was nowhere near as bad offensively as JBJ has been. Right now JBJ is -1.1 WAR. that's a -4.3/150 pace.
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Post by ramireja on May 21, 2019 11:21:41 GMT -5
Wait, that's even less of a pessimistic take than what I just described! He's in Salem! How is mid-next year pessimistic? "More likely 2021" I realize where he's at but I also realize what he's accomplishing. Anything long of three weeks into next season is pessimistic to me. More likely 2021 is Debbie Downer territory. Personally I think he'll be in Boston this year and not as a pinch runner but that is admittedly optimistic extreme but I don't see anything in his game that won't play up as he rises. When he goes to Portland and puts up video game numbers while JBJ continues his 4 year offensive slide, the Sox might be hard pressed to not give him a shot. For JBJ, 2016 is getting to be a long time ago. He's 22, a year younger than when Ellsbury replaced Crisp but, Crisp was nowhere near as bad offensively as JBJ has been. Right now JBJ is -1.1 WAR. that's a -4.3/150 pace. Two key things to work on before reaching the majors: 1) CF defense: This time last year he was the starting 2B for Long Beach State. Lets give the guy some time to learn a new and challenging position. 2) Baserunning: For a guy with 75/80 grade speed, his 71% SB success rate is.....not so great.
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2019 11:52:36 GMT -5
"More likely 2021" I realize where he's at but I also realize what he's accomplishing. Anything long of three weeks into next season is pessimistic to me. More likely 2021 is Debbie Downer territory. Personally I think he'll be in Boston this year and not as a pinch runner but that is admittedly optimistic extreme but I don't see anything in his game that won't play up as he rises. When he goes to Portland and puts up video game numbers while JBJ continues his 4 year offensive slide, the Sox might be hard pressed to not give him a shot. For JBJ, 2016 is getting to be a long time ago. He's 22, a year younger than when Ellsbury replaced Crisp but, Crisp was nowhere near as bad offensively as JBJ has been. Right now JBJ is -1.1 WAR. that's a -4.3/150 pace. Two key things to work on before reaching the majors: 1) CF defense: This time last year he was the starting 2B for Long Beach State. Lets give the guy some time to learn a new and challenging position. 2) Baserunning: For a guy with 75/80 grade speed, his 71% SB success rate is.....not so great. He’s gotten picked off a fair amount, I can think of at least 3 times I saw it in the box. So some of his issue is poor reads on the pitcher, or taking leads that he might not need to. I think he’d be helped with more info at the MLB level (video, moves, C pop times, etc.). But yeah, 13/18 this year is meh, and pretty bad for a guy as fast as him. I agree that the CF defense is probably the thing that holds him back. OTOH, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see him in MLB come September, and into October. That’s a valuable skill set to have on the bench. Im guessing he’s an AFL candidate, if he’s not in MLB. I think he’d have to be pretty awesome (ie, more of the same with maybe a bit more pop and improving defense, even if the BA “slips” to mid-300s) in Portland to get called up before roster expansion.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2019 12:37:33 GMT -5
At least one, and maybe two, of those caught stealings were of home plate on double steals. 13/16 sounds quite a bit better than 13/18.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 12:49:55 GMT -5
Tzu-Wei had a total of 59 minor league games in the outfield before he appeared in CF for Boston.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2019 12:56:38 GMT -5
"More likely 2021" I realize where he's at but I also realize what he's accomplishing. Anything long of three weeks into next season is pessimistic to me. More likely 2021 is Debbie Downer territory. Personally I think he'll be in Boston this year and not as a pinch runner but that is admittedly optimistic extreme but I don't see anything in his game that won't play up as he rises. When he goes to Portland and puts up video game numbers while JBJ continues his 4 year offensive slide, the Sox might be hard pressed to not give him a shot. For JBJ, 2016 is getting to be a long time ago. He's 22, a year younger than when Ellsbury replaced Crisp but, Crisp was nowhere near as bad offensively as JBJ has been. Right now JBJ is -1.1 WAR. that's a -4.3/150 pace. Two key things to work on before reaching the majors: 1) CF defense: This time last year he was the starting 2B for Long Beach State. Lets give the guy some time to learn a new and challenging position. 2) Baserunning: For a guy with 75/80 grade speed, his 71% SB success rate is.....not so great. Counterpoint on the CF point: Mookie came up the same year he moved to CF. Actually within like a month or two. Also, it's 70 grade speed, maaaaaaaaaaybe almost 75. Small point of information. Phils/Ray, I'm skeptical he's going to do this in AA. If he does this in AA for two months, which would probably make him one of the top prospects in baseball, then I'd maybe be with you. The question - what does Duran have to do to make the team enter 2020 without a CF option that blocks him? Do they start the year with JDM as an OF regular?
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2019 12:57:53 GMT -5
Tzu-Wei had a total of 59 minor league games in the outfield before he appeared in CF for Boston. There's a difference between playing one game or a few innings in CF as a utility player and being called up to play CF every day. Obviously they wouldn't have wanted to call up Lin to play CF every game after 59 minor league games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 14:25:49 GMT -5
Two key things to work on before reaching the majors: 1) CF defense: This time last year he was the starting 2B for Long Beach State. Lets give the guy some time to learn a new and challenging position. 2) Baserunning: For a guy with 75/80 grade speed, his 71% SB success rate is.....not so great. Counterpoint on the CF point: Mookie came up the same year he moved to CF. Actually within like a month or two. Also, it's 70 grade speed, maaaaaaaaaaybe almost 75. Small point of information. Phils/Ray, I'm skeptical he's going to do this in AA. If he does this in AA for two months, which would probably make him one of the top prospects in baseball, then I'd maybe be with you. The question - what does Duran have to do to make the team enter 2020 without a CF option that blocks him? Do they start the year with JDM as an OF regular? Regarding the CF option and breaking camp (I'm sure you know what I'm referring to). My guess is that they would use someone like Lin as a placeholder. If he doesn't get called up before Sept 1, he isn't breaking camp. That would be dumb on the Sox part. On the other hand, If he appears before Sept 1 and accumulates service time then not breaking camp would be dumb. I actually don't see how AA pitching/defense is going to slow him down all that much. He pretty much covers the entire plate and hits pretty close to line to line. (He doesn't seem to shoot the ball down the RF line very often from what I've seen but line drives that hit in front of the right fielder seem to bounce inordinately towards the line (tiny sample size caveat)). Everybody and their brother (including me) keep trying to put a comp on him. The more I watch him, the more I think there is no comp. That's mainly because he hits the ball on a line in front of the outfielders, not over their heads. I can think of some players who did that to one field or another but can't think of anybody the sprayed them all over the place anywhere near the number of times he does that. I'm guessing scouting doesn't know what to make of him because of all the scout peeps that are reformulating opinions, Kieth Law for example.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 14:33:12 GMT -5
Tzu-Wei had a total of 59 minor league games in the outfield before he appeared in CF for Boston. There's a difference between playing one game or a few innings in CF as a utility player and being called up to play CF every day. Obviously they wouldn't have wanted to call up Lin to play CF every game after 59 minor league games. I didn't say it was optimal, it's doable. How long do you think the Sox are going to live with JBJ performing at a -4+ WAR pace ? As Chris pointed out, look at Mookie. Duran already has more OF experience than Mookie had. Was that a problem ?
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2019 14:46:06 GMT -5
There's a difference between playing one game or a few innings in CF as a utility player and being called up to play CF every day. Obviously they wouldn't have wanted to call up Lin to play CF every game after 59 minor league games. I didn't say it was optimal, it's doable. How long do you think the Sox are going to live with JBJ performing at a -4+ WAR pace ? As Chris pointed out, look at Mookie. Duran already has more OF experience than Mookie had. Was that a problem ? Why do you think JBJ will continue to play at a -4 WAR pace? The projections all have him playing above replacement level for the rest of the way. In the worst case scenario, we could still hope for him bounce back to reasonable production, as he has each of the last two seasons. And that seems to me like a better bet than banking on a guy who's just starting to learn a new position and is still in A-ball.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2019 14:48:38 GMT -5
There's a difference between playing one game or a few innings in CF as a utility player and being called up to play CF every day. Obviously they wouldn't have wanted to call up Lin to play CF every game after 59 minor league games. I didn't say it was optimal, it's doable. How long do you think the Sox are going to live with JBJ performing at a -4+ WAR pace ? As Chris pointed out, look at Mookie. Duran already has more OF experience than Mookie had. Was that a problem ? Oh by all means, if Duran is the next Mookie then promote him to the majors now. But that's not very likely. They're much better off looking for a trade than to promote someone from Salem. Pushing prospects too hard because of a team need is a good way to ruin them.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2019 14:50:17 GMT -5
Counterpoint on the CF point: Mookie came up the same year he moved to CF. Actually within like a month or two. Also, it's 70 grade speed, maaaaaaaaaaybe almost 75. Small point of information. Phils/Ray, I'm skeptical he's going to do this in AA. If he does this in AA for two months, which would probably make him one of the top prospects in baseball, then I'd maybe be with you. The question - what does Duran have to do to make the team enter 2020 without a CF option that blocks him? Do they start the year with JDM as an OF regular? Regarding the CF option and breaking camp (I'm sure you know what I'm referring to). My guess is that they would use someone like Lin as a placeholder. If he doesn't get called up before Sept 1, he isn't breaking camp. That would be dumb on the Sox part. On the other hand, If he appears before Sept 1 and accumulates service time then not breaking camp would be dumb. I actually don't see how AA pitching/defense is going to slow him down all that much. He pretty much covers the entire plate and hits pretty close to line to line. (He doesn't seem to shoot the ball down the RF line very often from what I've seen but line drives that hit in front of the right fielder seem to bounce inordinately towards the line (tiny sample size caveat)). Everybody and their brother (including me) keep trying to put a comp on him. The more I watch him, the more I think there is no comp. That's mainly because he hits the ball on a line in front of the outfielders, not over their heads. I can think of some players who did that to one field or another but can't think of anybody the sprayed them all over the place anywhere near the number of times he does that. I'm guessing scouting doesn't know what to make of him because of all the scout peeps that are reformulating opinions, Kieth Law for example. Tony Gwynn comes to mind. He hit the ball everywhere. I just based that on your description since I haven't watched him yet. The K rate doesn't go with his skill set though.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
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Post by radiohix on May 21, 2019 14:50:31 GMT -5
Duran at age 22 in Salem: 1.020 OPS with 9% BB rate and 20.3% K rate JBJ at age 22 in Salem: 1.006 OPS with a 17.1 % BB rate and a 13.2 % K rate (He was walking more than whiffing)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2019 15:07:21 GMT -5
Duran at age 22 in Salem: 1.020 OPS with 9% BB rate and 20.3% K rate JBJ at age 22 in Salem: 1.006 OPS with a 17.1 % BB rate and a 13.2 % K rate (He was walking more than whiffing) I don't know if that's more interesting or more sobering. It's easy to forget that JBJ was tearing the cover off of the ball in A ball, too, but I do remember. I could never figure out why he never had the consistent swing mechanics that would allow him to reach his offensive ceiling. I didn't expect JBJ to be Tony Gwynn but I thought he'd hit a lot better than he has as a major leaguer. I still think he has the capabilities of tapping into it somewhat, which is why I think he will have a better second half. I think the talent is there but his mechanics get screwed up and it takes him awhile to fix it, and then he changes something and we go round and round in a circle. Still, it's more promising to put up that line in A than some mediocre line, but it can serve as a cautionary tale. On the flipside, you have somebody like Chavis performing better in the bigs than he's ever performed anywhere else. His walks are up and the power is there and consistent, and he's consistently hitting the ball hard. Kind of crazy how that works.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
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Post by radiohix on May 21, 2019 15:56:17 GMT -5
Duran at age 22 in Salem: 1.020 OPS with 9% BB rate and 20.3% K rate JBJ at age 22 in Salem: 1.006 OPS with a 17.1 % BB rate and a 13.2 % K rate (He was walking more than whiffing) I don't know if that's more interesting or more sobering. I meant it to be sobering because it looks like some of us here are getting way ahead of ourselves here and that's ok, we follow prospects because we want to get excited about their future but there's another side of the coin here: The guy that we want to replace was putting similar numbers at the same age at the same level. In fact JBJ was making more contact, getting on base more (.480 for Jackie vs .463 for JD), hitting the ball with more authority (.167 IsoP JBJ vs .152 IsoP JD) and certainly playing better defense.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2019 16:30:15 GMT -5
I don't know if that's more interesting or more sobering. I meant it to be sobering because it looks like some of us here are getting way ahead of ourselves here and that's ok, we follow prospects because we want to get excited about their future but there's another side of the coin here: The guy that we want to replace was putting similar numbers at the same age at the same level. In fact JBJ was making more contact, getting on base more (.480 for Jackie vs .463 for JD), hitting the ball with more authority (.167 IsoP JBJ vs .152 IsoP JD) and certainly playing better defense. Yeah, I knew your intent. It doesn't necessarily follow that Duran will follow JBJ's path offensively, but it sure does show the possibility of it. I think that's perhaps we're scouting comes more into focus, things that are more along the lines of mechanics, which I know next to nothing about. I think JBJ got very little offensively out of his talent - well perhaps that's poor phrasing. I'm sure there are a lot of A level batting champions that have never sniffed the big leagues, so JBJ in that regard did well. He does have a 26 HR season to his credit, an ALCS MVP trophy, and has had some good stretches of solid offense, and a blistering streak that resulted in a 29 game hitting streak. That's more than a lot of people can say, but still, I'll always have the feeling he could have been a lot more offensively than he actually was and is. I still think he has the talent to be better, but perhaps stubbornness plays a role in it. I think it was Tiant who told JBJ how he'd get him out and JBJ got of scoffed about it - if that's how the story goes. (shrug)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 18:36:48 GMT -5
It's not the numbers it's the game. Yes Tony Gwynn hit the ball all over the place but I don't recall the line drive % being like that. JBJ and Duran are not at all similar. Like I said I don't recall anybody that consistently hits line drive in front of the outfielders. I haven't looked at Bellinger's game yet though. When asked what he changed he said " I stopped trying to hit the hell out of the ball". I know he has an all fields approach but that might be the limit of similarities.
I think Duran's hit tool is highly underrated.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 21, 2019 18:56:37 GMT -5
It's not the numbers it's the game. Yes Tony Gwynn hit the ball all over the place but I don't recall the line drive % being like that. JBJ and Duran are not at all similar. Like I said I don't recall anybody that consistently hits line drive in front of the outfielders. I haven't looked at Bellinger's game yet though. When asked what he changed he said " I stopped trying to hit the hell out of the ball". I know he has an all fields approach but that might be the limit of similarities. I think Duran's hit tool is highly underrated. Uhh... you’re talking about CODY Bellinger?
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2019 21:41:09 GMT -5
I don't know if that's more interesting or more sobering. I meant it to be sobering because it looks like some of us here are getting way ahead of ourselves here and that's ok, we follow prospects because we want to get excited about their future but there's another side of the coin here: The guy that we want to replace was putting similar numbers at the same age at the same level. In fact JBJ was making more contact, getting on base more (.480 for Jackie vs .463 for JD), hitting the ball with more authority (.167 IsoP JBJ vs .152 IsoP JD) and certainly playing better defense. As frustrated as people are with Bradley at this moment, if Duran turns out to be as valuable as Bradley has been then that's a success. The scary downside comp is Garin Cecchini's 2013. .350/.469/.547 as a 22-year-old, 13.0% K rate, 16.4% walk rate, .197 Iso, good gap-to-gap skills. On the other hand, Duran is faster and plays a premium defensive postion. Also, I still can't figure out what the heck went wrong with Cecchini. It wasn't an obvious thing like Middlebrooks with the changeup. Duran has a great utility player profile even if he kinda goes sideways, which wasn't the case at all with Cecchini.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 23:07:23 GMT -5
It's not the numbers it's the game. Yes Tony Gwynn hit the ball all over the place but I don't recall the line drive % being like that. JBJ and Duran are not at all similar. Like I said I don't recall anybody that consistently hits line drive in front of the outfielders. I haven't looked at Bellinger's game yet though. When asked what he changed he said " I stopped trying to hit the hell out of the ball". I know he has an all fields approach but that might be the limit of similarities. I think Duran's hit tool is highly underrated. Uhh... you’re talking about CODY Bellinger? I'm talking about the general style of play this year, maybe you're not familiar with the concept but it's not a projection of future performance. Looking at his stats, there's a definite increase in LD% but on the other hand he's pulling the ball more frequently than in past years so not a likely comp which leaves me back to not being able to think of a similar hitting profile.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 23:08:47 GMT -5
I meant it to be sobering because it looks like some of us here are getting way ahead of ourselves here and that's ok, we follow prospects because we want to get excited about their future but there's another side of the coin here: The guy that we want to replace was putting similar numbers at the same age at the same level. In fact JBJ was making more contact, getting on base more (.480 for Jackie vs .463 for JD), hitting the ball with more authority (.167 IsoP JBJ vs .152 IsoP JD) and certainly playing better defense. As frustrated as people are with Bradley at this moment, if Duran turns out to be as valuable as Bradley has been then that's a success. The scary downside comp is Garin Cecchini's 2013. .350/.469/.547 as a 22-year-old, 13.0% K rate, 16.4% walk rate, .197 Iso, good gap-to-gap skills. On the other hand, Duran is faster and plays a premium defensive postion. Also, I still can't figure out what the heck went wrong with Cecchini. It wasn't an obvious thing like Middlebrooks with the changeup. Duran has a great utility player profile even if he kinda goes sideways, which wasn't the case at all with Cecchini. Cecchini was a stunner. There's no guarantees, just like there were no guarantees with Cecchini or JBJ or Mookie.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 9:05:03 GMT -5
As frustrated as people are with Bradley at this moment, if Duran turns out to be as valuable as Bradley has been then that's a success. The scary downside comp is Garin Cecchini's 2013. .350/.469/.547 as a 22-year-old, 13.0% K rate, 16.4% walk rate, .197 Iso, good gap-to-gap skills. On the other hand, Duran is faster and plays a premium defensive postion. Also, I still can't figure out what the heck went wrong with Cecchini. It wasn't an obvious thing like Middlebrooks with the changeup. Duran has a great utility player profile even if he kinda goes sideways, which wasn't the case at all with Cecchini. Cecchini was a stunner. There's no guarantees, just like there were no guarantees with Cecchini or JBJ or Mookie. Cecchini wasn't stunning to me. He didn't have enough power to go with his not very good k-rate, which is my same concern with Duran. Although Duran is much safer because of his speed. If Duran had a k-rate of about 10%, I'd be as excited as you are about him. But it has ticked up level by level so I can't imagine what he'd be doing in the majors right now. There isn't any room for his k-rate to rise and be any better than Billy Hamilton.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on May 22, 2019 11:53:26 GMT -5
Duran's "50" hit and 70 speed if combined correctly do not tell the true value of him. The ability to put the ball in play combined with his speed will make his average higher and OBP higher. This makes his average go up much higher and all his other numbers like slugging go up as well. A single may become a double because of his speed is an example. He is undervalued as a prospect in my view.
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Post by soxfan511 on May 22, 2019 11:54:18 GMT -5
Some people here worry too much about K rate. Moncada’s k rate always sucked and he’s hitting like an all star right now
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2019 12:00:25 GMT -5
Moncada had already reached the majors when he was Duran's age. Duran is only 16 months younger than Moncada. And Moncada's strikeout problems clearly impact his production.
You can't take player A being able to overcome a weakness and apply that it shouldn't be considered a weakness compared to Player B - especially when the two players aren't similar. That's getting into "we shouldn't worry about Henry Owens' command because Nolan Ryan" territory.
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