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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 12:08:29 GMT -5
Some people here worry too much about K rate. Moncada’s k rate always sucked and he’s hitting like an all star right now Moncada has power though. Name a contact hitter without much power with a >20% k rate that's even an average hitter. The lack of power is what makes pitchers not walk those players as well.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 13:03:07 GMT -5
Moncada had already reached the majors when he was Duran's age. Duran is only 16 months younger than Moncada. And Moncada's strikeout problems clearly impact his production. You can't take player A being able to overcome a weakness and apply that it shouldn't be considered a weakness compared to Player B - especially when the two players aren't similar. That's getting into "we shouldn't worry about Henry Owens' command because Nolan Ryan" territory. Moncada also hitting .227/.289/.413 with a 36.1% K rate in the month of May.
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Post by soxfan511 on May 22, 2019 14:58:02 GMT -5
Some people here worry too much about K rate. Moncada’s k rate always sucked and he’s hitting like an all star right now Moncada has power though. Name a contact hitter without much power with a >20% k rate that's even an average hitter. The lack of power is what makes pitchers not walk those players as well. But Duran may have 75-80 speed. That type of elite speed may be the difference.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 22, 2019 15:04:02 GMT -5
Moncada has power though. Name a contact hitter without much power with a >20% k rate that's even an average hitter. The lack of power is what makes pitchers not walk those players as well. But Duran may have 75-80 speed. That type of elite speed may be the difference. 70 speed. Maybe 75.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2019 15:16:37 GMT -5
Moncada has power though. Name a contact hitter without much power with a >20% k rate that's even an average hitter. The lack of power is what makes pitchers not walk those players as well. But Duran may have 75-80 speed. That type of elite speed may be the difference. Well we're discussing whether he's going to be freaking Tony Gwynn or Ricky Henderson and I'm saying it's more likely that he's Billy Hamilton, who would be useful, but not anything to get super excited about. His k-rate needs to be watched. He's not going to be in the majors this year replacing JBJ with a 20.4% k-rate 3 levels below the majors. I get being excited about prospects and I've fallen in love with lots of them. But I'm not that excited about Duran yet. Hope I'm wrong. Dalbec lowering his k-rate this year is way more exciting. He could replace Steve Pearce later this season if he never starts hitting.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 22, 2019 21:49:18 GMT -5
I'd be considerably more worried about his K rate if it was K looking. They are almost all K swinging as he adjusts to pitcher adjustments. If he maintains a high BABIP, K rates are less of a concern because of what happens when he does make contact.
The pitchers are throwing him strikes because they don't want to walk him. Sort of analagous to when people would worry about Ellsbury's walk rates but, in reality he wasn't getting thrown a lot of balls.
Billy Hamilton is not even vaguely a reasonable comparison. Hamilton does not continuously make solid contact.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 25, 2019 4:45:11 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 25, 2019 6:36:04 GMT -5
Speaking of the absurd:
vs RHP (127 PA) .377/.433/.535/.968
vs. LHP (68 PA) .508/.574/.627/1.201
Who we comping to ? ? ?
Edit: Just saw Gammo beat me to that by 30 minutes.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 25, 2019 8:19:38 GMT -5
Speaking of the absurd: vs RHP (127 PA) .377/.433/.535/.968 vs. LHP (68 PA) .508/.574/.627/1.201 Who we comping to ? ? ? Edit: Just saw Gammo beat me to that by 30 minutes. I am hoping he might turn into Jacoby Ellsbury, without the injuries. Still a long way to go, but he seems to have the same skill set. Fairly tall, but does not seem to have a lot of power. Great speed. Not as good defensively or on the bases yet but seems to have the skills to improve in those two areas. Not a great arm, like Jacoby. I am not sure Jacoby ever had a hot streak at the plate like Duran has shown since he turned pro. So maybe Duran is potentially a better hitter, although would reserve judgment on that until he has success at AA.
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Post by soxjim on May 25, 2019 12:29:20 GMT -5
I didn't see a thread regarding this so I'd like opinion of what others think. If he continues hitting well, how many more games before being sent up to Portland?
And I noticed in his profile on this site he has a projected ETA of late 2020. Meaning Portland this year and Pawtucket next? There is no chance he'd get to Pawtucket this year correct? Or maybe no reason to?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 25, 2019 12:49:03 GMT -5
In my opinion, Duran should have been promoted a couple of weeks ago. His age is one of the reasons I'm not pleased he isn't being challenged. Hitting .400 in High-A is impressive of course, but how much longer does he have to hover at that plateau before he gets a chance to move.
Now, if he was 19 or 20, I'd be fine with him spending a half season in Salem, but he has played at the highest levels of college ball for 3 seasons, on top of what he is doing now. I'm sure some of the other players in the system are starting to wonder what it takes. It is June in a few days, move the guy to Portland and let him make the corrections he'll surely need to make NOW. You don't improve by doing the same old thing without some stumbles. Let the kid fail and make changes in his approach NOW.
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Post by jchang on May 25, 2019 12:51:29 GMT -5
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Post by soxjim on May 25, 2019 12:55:01 GMT -5
Thanks I did a search before but I came up with one from last year. It had the same "Hungry like the wolf" title.
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Post by soxjim on May 25, 2019 13:27:35 GMT -5
But Duran may have 75-80 speed. That type of elite speed may be the difference. Well we're discussing whether he's going to be freaking Tony Gwynn or Ricky Henderson and I'm saying it's more likely that he's Billy Hamilton, who would be useful, but not anything to get super excited about. His k-rate needs to be watched. He's not going to be in the majors this year replacing JBJ with a 20.4% k-rate 3 levels below the majors. I get being excited about prospects and I've fallen in love with lots of them. But I'm not that excited about Duran yet. Hope I'm wrong. Dalbec lowering his k-rate this year is way more exciting. He could replace Steve Pearce later this season if he never starts hitting. I'm the other way around. I'm not a fan of Dalbec and hope I'm wrong. I'm not too excited about any prospect including Duran - but as another poster pointed out -- I think the Hamilton comparison is harsh. Hamilton never showed he could hit in the minors. IMO Billy Hamilton is a pinch runner and that's about his value. This year and his last 2 years - he's awful at the plate, isn't he? Duran's hitting doesn't show you more than that? I admit though I have a bias. against power hitters that don; hit for average. Heck, Mike Napoli helped sox win it all as the Sox number 5 hitter.
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Post by jimed14 on May 25, 2019 13:51:58 GMT -5
Well we're discussing whether he's going to be freaking Tony Gwynn or Ricky Henderson and I'm saying it's more likely that he's Billy Hamilton, who would be useful, but not anything to get super excited about. His k-rate needs to be watched. He's not going to be in the majors this year replacing JBJ with a 20.4% k-rate 3 levels below the majors. I get being excited about prospects and I've fallen in love with lots of them. But I'm not that excited about Duran yet. Hope I'm wrong. Dalbec lowering his k-rate this year is way more exciting. He could replace Steve Pearce later this season if he never starts hitting. I'm the other way around. I'm not a fan of Dalbec and hope I'm wrong. I'm not too excited about any prospect including Duran - but as another poster pointed out -- I think the Hamilton comparison is harsh. Hamilton never showed he could hit in the minors. IMO Billy Hamilton is a pinch runner and that's about his value. This year and his last 2 years - he's awful at the plate, isn't he? Duran's hitting doesn't show you more than that? I admit though I have a bias. against power hitters that don; hit for average. Heck, Mike Napoli helped sox win it all as the Sox number 5 hitter. I'm not a huge fan of 3 true outcome players either, but with the juiced ball, those players are far more valuable today than they ever have been.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 26, 2019 8:14:21 GMT -5
Two old tweets to consider.
May 14:
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats A note on Jarren Duran's speed: On video I have him going from contact to 2B on a double last night in 7.5 secs including a bad slide.
At one point last summer Dee Gordon did it in 7.64 and was the 4th fastest of the year, with the top three spots belonging to Billy Hamilton.
also later May 14:
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats May 14 More Red Sox Stats Retweeted Brian Bannister Duran, 7.36 seconds . . . Now I wonder what the top 3 Billy Hamilton speeds were.
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Post by ramireja on May 26, 2019 8:57:15 GMT -5
In my opinion, Duran should have been promoted a couple of weeks ago. His age is one of the reasons I'm not pleased he isn't being challenged. Hitting .400 in High-A is impressive of course, but how much longer does he have to hover at that plateau before he gets a chance to move. Now, if he was 19 or 20, I'd be fine with him spending a half season in Salem, but he has played at the highest levels of college ball for 3 seasons, on top of what he is doing now. I'm sure some of the other players in the system are starting to wonder what it takes. It is June in a few days, move the guy to Portland and let him make the corrections he'll surely need to make NOW. You don't improve by doing the same old thing without some stumbles. Let the kid fail and make changes in his approach NOW. Just for a little bit of context though, the only college position players to begin their first full professional season in Salem in the Dombrowski era are: Jarren Duran, Brett Netzer, and Andrew Benintendi. The only player to reach Portland in that first full year was Benintendi who had 155 PAs in Salem with a 164 wRC+ and struck out only 5.8% (!) of the time. I'm sure Duran will be the second player to do so....potentially very, very soon, but I'm not all worried that his development is being stunted in the meantime. A year ago we had zero expectations for the guy and now there are folks (not necessarily here) who can't believe JBJ is starting in the majors over him.
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Post by terriblehondo on May 26, 2019 9:00:22 GMT -5
I hope he is working on bunting with his speed it would be another weapon.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 26, 2019 20:11:52 GMT -5
I hope he is working on bunting with his speed it would be another weapon. He squares to bunt quite often when the third baseman plays deep. I haven't seen him put one down yet but it does move the third baseman in. They don't shift against him.
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Post by telson13 on May 26, 2019 22:01:21 GMT -5
I'd be considerably more worried about his K rate if it was K looking. They are almost all K swinging as he adjusts to pitcher adjustments. If he maintains a high BABIP, K rates are less of a concern because of what happens when he does make contact. The pitchers are throwing him strikes because they don't want to walk him. Sort of analagous to when people would worry about Ellsbury's walk rates but, in reality he wasn't getting thrown a lot of balls. Billy Hamilton is not even vaguely a reasonable comparison. Hamilton does not continuously make solid contact. I’ve done the Duran-Gardner-Hamilton comparo including batted ball data etc elsewhere and I agree. Duran is much closer to Gardner; Hamilton has almost no raw power and he hits too many fly balls, which is why his BABIP went *way* down after A ball. Duran should maintain a BABIP in the .350-.380 range at higher levels based on his oppo/LD approach and speed, and lack of platoon issues. The K rate creeping over 20% might be an issue but he’s improved his walk rate too, and my guess is we don’t see a whiff issue over time.
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Post by telson13 on May 26, 2019 22:03:39 GMT -5
Two old tweets to consider. May 14: Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats A note on Jarren Duran's speed: On video I have him going from contact to 2B on a double last night in 7.5 secs including a bad slide. At one point last summer Dee Gordon did it in 7.64 and was the 4th fastest of the year, with the top three spots belonging to Billy Hamilton. also later May 14: Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats May 14 More Red Sox Stats Retweeted Brian Bannister Duran, 7.36 seconds . . . Now I wonder what the top 3 Billy Hamilton speeds were. 80 speed. One of McDaniel or Longenhagen said as much. Obviously statcast will be the full reveal. Maybe if he goes to the AFL.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2019 1:02:39 GMT -5
I've pointed out several times that Duran swings and misses significantly more than he has called strikes and on the other hand that he makes hard contact and said that's the reason I wasn't overly concerned with his K rates where they are.
This quote from ericmvan in the 3rd baseman thread (which he went on to document) hit home with me:
There has to be a correlation between plate discipline and hitting the ball really hard very often, correct? And in fact, there is. The more you swing and miss, the more you tend to hit the ball very hard.
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Post by James Dunne on May 27, 2019 6:36:45 GMT -5
There is some survivor's bias in that, though. It's not that humans who swing and miss a lot hit baseballs harder, it is that guys who swing and miss and do not hit the ball hard do not make it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2019 6:50:04 GMT -5
There is some survivor's bias in that, though. It's not that humans who swing and miss a lot hit baseballs harder, it is that guys who swing and miss and do not hit the ball hard do not make it. I'm not so sure about that as the end implication though. Chances are the guy that is hitting the ball harder has the bat head moving faster which in turn makes contact likelihood less. That's the typical MO of a slap hitter. As I said before, a 20% strikeout rate is not a big issue if the other 80% makes up for it. In the case of Duran who constantly hits the ball hard, it's more than making up for it which is why I'm not overly concerned.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2019 7:03:25 GMT -5
I wish they did pitch counts in the minors but I'm 99.99% sure Duran's average pitches is very low. If you throw him a first pitch strike, he's swinging. About 4 nights ago he had 3 hits on 4 pitches. I've never seen a 8-9-10 pitch sequence by him but I've seen several by Fitzgerald who "works the count". Chances are if Duran walks, it was a 4 or 5 pitch walk because he swings at strikes.
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