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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2014 8:42:03 GMT -5
Exactly. And Fossum was one of the guys Theo was refusing to trade when asked for early on, that is until the Schilling deal. He was a "must have" for Arizona in that.
The projections/hype remind me of Owens. Who, btw, even though ranked #24 in their mid-season re-ranking still comes with this thumbnail scouting report:
Owens' command isn't great, and he proved to be vulnerable against left-handed hitters. But he has a good feel for pitching, giving scouts confidence he will make the adjustments necessary to reach his potential as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Translation: IF he can figure out how to command his stuff better he will be a #3 starter.
Meanwhile they give Ranaudo a ceiling of a #2 and they feel confident of him being at least a #3 starter, yet he's ranked 82.
I love the hype machine. Maybe it will help us get something good for Owens like we did for Fossum.
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 28, 2014 8:52:44 GMT -5
Translation: IF he can figure out how to command his stuff better he will be a #3 starter. Right - that is why he is in AA. What is surprising about that? I can certainly see being skeptical of Henry Owens, but I think you are very much overstating your argument.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2014 8:56:37 GMT -5
If Owens was Cuban, he'd have an ace ceiling.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jul 28, 2014 9:07:44 GMT -5
Meanwhile they give Ranaudo a ceiling of a #2 and they feel confident of him being at least a #3 starter, yet he's ranked 82. Tangentially related to the topic at hand, but I've wondered why Ranaudo hasn't gotten much more attention than he has this year. He's having a wonderful year and has been the best of our AAA pitchers (I think - I'm not looking through peripherals or anything as I type this), and yet nobody is saying a word about him. Anyway, I do think there's a combination of things at play here. I do think Owens is overhyped (and of our so-called 'elite' prospects he'd be the first I'd be willing to trade) but I also think Ranaudo has been very underhyped.
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 9:24:02 GMT -5
Owens L/R splits this year are actually improved, with the impact in OBP. This year he is better than average against both L and R, where as last year he was below average in OBP against L (while unreal against R)
2014 (125 PA v L, 344 PA v R v L .226 / .288 / .330 v R .186 / .270 / .283
2013 (160 PA v L and 386 PA v R v L .203 / .365 / .338 v R .167 / .260 / .249
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2014 10:03:08 GMT -5
If Owens was Cuban, he'd have an ace ceiling. Hall of Fame.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2014 9:03:28 GMT -5
MLBPipeline has mysteriously changed it's scouting report on Owens. When they released the new Top 50 on Sunday they had his projection as a "midrotation starter" (see my post above. Now it reads like this:
Owens' command isn't great, but he has a good feel for pitching and continues to miss bats as he rises through the Minors. He has a ceiling of a No. 2 starter.
OK, did someone here threaten Callis, or did Owens' mom show up at MLBPipeline's door and give those boys a good piece of her mind?
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 9:41:28 GMT -5
MLBPipeline has mysteriously changed it's scouting report on Owens. When they released the new Top 50 on Sunday they had his projection as a "midrotation starter" (see my post above. Now it reads like this: Owens' command isn't great, but he has a good feel for pitching and continues to miss bats as he rises through the Minors. He has a ceiling of a No. 2 starter.
OK, did someone here threaten Callis, or did Owens' mom show up at MLBPipeline's door and give those boys a good piece of her mind? Well ceiling and projection are 2 pretty different things
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 29, 2014 10:11:29 GMT -5
I think that Chaz's scouting report on Owens explains the situation very well. If he improves his curve, improves his command, grows and throws harder, or some combination of the three then he can be a lower end #2 or a higher end #3.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jul 29, 2014 10:39:26 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2014 12:34:24 GMT -5
MLBPipeline has mysteriously changed it's scouting report on Owens. When they released the new Top 50 on Sunday they had his projection as a "midrotation starter" (see my post above. Now it reads like this: Owens' command isn't great, but he has a good feel for pitching and continues to miss bats as he rises through the Minors. He has a ceiling of a No. 2 starter.
OK, did someone here threaten Callis, or did Owens' mom show up at MLBPipeline's door and give those boys a good piece of her mind? Well ceiling and projection are 2 pretty different things That was a caveat-laden "projection" they had up. Made it sound like a struggle he'd even reach that.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 13:38:50 GMT -5
Well ceiling and projection are 2 pretty different things That was a caveat-laden "projection" they had up. Made it sound like a struggle he'd even reach that. Yea I remember seeing that, but across the board most people seem to think he'll be an average #3 anyway, and they have him ranked way too high for a ceiling of a #3 to make sense. Probably just realized that and changed the wording
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2014 15:47:51 GMT -5
That was a caveat-laden "projection" they had up. Made it sound like a struggle he'd even reach that. Yea I remember seeing that, but across the board most people seem to think he'll be an average #3 anyway, and they have him ranked way too high for a ceiling of a #3 to make sense. Probably just realized that and changed the wording Even better - "Hey wait, fellas, we may have to justify our hype for a guy who projects as a #3 when we have guys who project to be 2s in the 70s and 80s." Let the tail wag the dog. Ups the trade value.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 16:18:24 GMT -5
Read this interesting article on Jack Odorizzi. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-odorizzi-and-the-2014-value-of-the-shieldsmyers-trade/Check out his swinging strikes map on his fastball since he has added his split-change. His FB avg velocity is pretty close to what Owens throws. And he lives up in the zone with it since his split/change is so effective. This goes back to my argument that staying up in the zone with a fastball could be the right strategy for someone with a really good changeup.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2014 21:47:12 GMT -5
I've long been a believer in the high strike, esp inside. Bill James recently did a study on it - excerpt and link. "I think that the advantages of throwing ground balls have been horribly overstated, and that the best way to get batters out is to find pitchers who can throw high fastballs."espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/33991/bill-james-doesnt-like-groundball-pitchersA Div 3 coach I know had his otherwise unremarkable staff focus on this. They won their league for the first time in more than a decade.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 29, 2014 23:20:46 GMT -5
I would like to see Owens develop a cutter or slider that he can throw for occasional strikes to help him through a lineup the third time around.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 1, 2014 9:58:25 GMT -5
Owens to Pawtucket.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 1, 2014 13:56:49 GMT -5
Go Hank. Prove me the wrong over and over again.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 1, 2014 14:16:02 GMT -5
Debuting Monday night for the PawSox
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 3, 2014 20:38:09 GMT -5
Wanted to bump this back to the first page. Basically, Henry O spent a whole year in AA. As a 21 year old. Turned 22 last week. This is his line. Amazing number of decision with just 26 starts. 17-5 2.44 ERA IP 151 1/3 h 107 R 44 ER 41 BB 62 K 172 Only gave up 9 HR's. WHIP 1.12
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 3, 2014 20:42:55 GMT -5
Different park. But, same league and almost same age. Carl Pavano was 16-5 2.63 ERA IP 185 H 154 R 66 ER 54 BB 47 K 146 HR's 16. Pavano kind of reminds me of Clay Buchholz. Had a lot of talent but didn't really get the most out of it. Maybe a lack of confidence and off-field issues.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 3, 2014 20:43:45 GMT -5
Pavano had a lot of injuries. And we got Pedro for him.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 3, 2014 23:45:51 GMT -5
Can't wait to see Owens spin it in Pawtucket. Hopefully Johnson will be joining him there soon as well.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 5, 2014 7:56:51 GMT -5
So no posts about Ownes brilliant line in his AAA debut? This wasn't just a typical AAA debut, he knows very well about his status within the system, saw Lester and Lackey go out the door, and watched Webster and Buchholz get shalacked at the MLB level and even Ranaudo struggle a bit with walks in his opening day debut. All eyes are on Ownes now and he pitched beautifully.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2014 8:02:08 GMT -5
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