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Post by telson13 on Jun 1, 2015 22:14:11 GMT -5
I think the Sox have their 1/2/3 of the future, Don't set your expectations this high. There have been about 100,000 times in baseball history where a team had three really good looking starting pitching prospects. There have been 99,999 times that it didn't quite work out, and there was the 1991 Atlanta Braves. Yeah, and look what happened to Avery. And Maddux was a FA sign. I chuckled when I saw this, because it's true. I do have high hopes for Rodriguez, but it's entirely likely that what they get is a 3/4/5, and even that would be, in the grand scheme of things, a win. Still...easy 95mph **average** velocity over 105 pitches has gotta have you excited too, especially with all of those bad swings/misses. The interesting question is, if they continue to play this poorly, do Owens and Johnson get looks? Do they trade Miley or Buchholz to a contender?
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 11, 2015 21:40:53 GMT -5
So the report was that Owens was throwing a lot of sliders last night, and with some success. Has anyone seen this pitch in person recently? He seems to be putting it together again recently.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2015 0:50:15 GMT -5
Henry's first 12 starts versus his subsequent 7. The third line shows the change between the two. BIA = balls in air, excluding popups.
Dates GS IP Str% K% BB% ERA FIP BABIP HR/BIA Through 6/9 12 64.3 .583 .188 .154 3.64 4.47 .231 .043 Since 7 46.0 .644 .244 .068 2.74 3.03 .214 .049 10% 30% -56% -25% -32% -7% "13%"*
Dates BA OBP SA GB% LD% PU% SB CS Through 6/9 .196 .324 .308 .401 .215 .079 10 5 Since .173 .233 .290 .383 .217 .108 2 1 -12% -28% -6% -4% 1% 37% * The actual increase in HR/BIA is zero; at the old rate, his expected HR allowed in his last 7 starts would be 2.6, which is really hard to do (he gave up 3).
More strikes leads to hugely improved K/W (1.2 to 3.6) and more popups, and otherwise no change in balls in play at all. And a big improvement holding runners, for gravy.
Now, the tantalizing thing is that his K rate in the first 4 of those 7 starts was .182, which is to say unchanged, and it's .325 in his last 3. It makes some sense that he might reduce his walks first, then start fanning way more batters, but it also makes sense that the split is just a fluke, since his Str% is .640, then .648.
Just as tempting, his GB% was .320 in his first 4 and .489 in his last 3, but I'd bet that's a fluke. If its isn't, however ...
(The walk rate was .061, then .078, which is almost certainly random.)
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2015 14:15:15 GMT -5
Do we have a breakdown on pitch selection? I think the real question is, can Owens's recent improvement in performance be correlated with a *real* change, eg, use of his changeup again? And as a corollary, is he getting the CU/SL over more, getting a markedly higher SW%, or something else along these lines? FWIW, his BAA all year has been outstanding. If he cuts his walks and that OBP stays lower than .300, he's going to be in good shape. Also, if the popup rate increase is real, that's a good sign as well. I have a hard time believing his BABIP is going to stay in the low-.200s though.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2015 14:21:18 GMT -5
More to the point, if, say, games 1-4 of the last seven were indicative of improvement of his CB/SL, and the GB rate and K rate jump in games 5-7 represented reintroduction of his CH, I would feel *really* good about his chances going forward. I like the high popup rate, that was a huge part of Lester's revival after his disastrous 2012. Lefties who give up flies in Fenway are just fine, as long as those flies are kept largely in the infield. That Owens's LD rate has been flat actually makes me feel better about the GB/PU rates being "real."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2015 20:53:59 GMT -5
More to the point, if, say, games 1-4 of the last seven were indicative of improvement of his CB/SL, and the GB rate and K rate jump in games 5-7 represented reintroduction of his CH, I would feel *really* good about his chances going forward. I like the high popup rate, that was a huge part of Lester's revival after his disastrous 2012. Lefties who give up flies in Fenway are just fine, as long as those flies are kept largely in the infield. That Owens's LD rate has been flat actually makes me feel better about the GB/PU rates being "real." That the big hike in K rate and noticeable hike in GB% coincides with the reintroduction of his changeup hadn't occurred to me, but it makes sense three different ways, and indeed is consistent with reports. He was supposedly throwing it a lot less because it was literally too easy to get AAA hitters out with it. They wanted him to work on his other pitches as much as possible. And there have been reports that he's now throwing it a lot again. Four straight starts with improved control seems like a real reasonable goal for him to have to reach before they let him start using the changeup as an out pitch again. That makes all sorts of sense. And the two things that a great changeup gets are swinging strikeouts, and ground balls. I would think, though, that the first four games of the seven were as much or more about FB command as command of the curve and new slider.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2015 0:42:15 GMT -5
More to the point, if, say, games 1-4 of the last seven were indicative of improvement of his CB/SL, and the GB rate and K rate jump in games 5-7 represented reintroduction of his CH, I would feel *really* good about his chances going forward. I like the high popup rate, that was a huge part of Lester's revival after his disastrous 2012. Lefties who give up flies in Fenway are just fine, as long as those flies are kept largely in the infield. That Owens's LD rate has been flat actually makes me feel better about the GB/PU rates being "real." That the big hike in K rate and noticeable hike in GB% coincides with the reintroduction of his changeup hadn't occurred to me, but it makes sense three different ways, and indeed is consistent with reports. He was supposedly throwing it a lot less because it was literally too easy to get AAA hitters out with it. They wanted him to work on his other pitches as much as possible. And there have been reports that he's now throwing it a lot again. Four straight starts with improved control seems like a real reasonable goal for him to have to reach before they let him start using the changeup as an out pitch again. That makes all sorts of sense. And the two things that a great changeup gets are swinging strikeouts, and ground balls. I would think, though, that the first four games of the seven were as much or more about FB command as command of the curve and new slider. That sounds about right...I can see him getting a lot of whiffs (and more strikes due to swings rather than off-the-plate-called-ball SL/CB) and weak contact with the CH. That's kind of why I wasn't so concerned with his BB/9 rate earlier this year...I think his FB/SL/CB mix without the change meant he was really having to pitch with his second- and third-best pitches. Losing all of those swinging strikes without having the CH and really having to hone his command to keep from giving up too many hard-hit balls explained the poor walk rate, but it was nice to see a still-very-low BAA. I was just venturing a guess based on what I'd heard, and what the stats seem to reflect. Given the atrocious performance of the MLB team, might as well give the guy a shot, his recent performance certainly warrants it.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Aug 1, 2015 20:40:09 GMT -5
some rumblings on twitter that according to owens father they have informed him he will be added to the 25 man at beginning of next road trip...my guess is he pitches scheduled start Monday for Pawtucket and joins the team Wednesday in NYC
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Post by arzjake on Aug 2, 2015 9:40:32 GMT -5
some rumblings on twitter that according to owens father they have informed him he will be added to the 25 man at beginning of next road trip...my guess is he pitches scheduled start Monday for Pawtucket and joins the team Wednesday in NYC Great News!
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 2, 2015 10:03:45 GMT -5
some rumblings on twitter that according to owens father they have informed him he will be added to the 25 man at beginning of next road trip...my guess is he pitches scheduled start Monday for Pawtucket and joins the team Wednesday in NYC I think this is a good thing. I have concern that pitchers like Owens --pitchers who don't have big fastballs -- frequently have a longer learning curve upon arriving in the majors. The biggest difference between major and minor leaguer hitter is their ability to hit off speed stuff, and pitchers who are more dependent on off speed stuff frequently have more adjustments to make. Giving Owens some innings while people can still dismiss failure as a product of his age or not having had a full year at AAA strikes me as a good idea.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Aug 2, 2015 10:37:17 GMT -5
Looks like he has a decent chance of starting Tuesday in NYC...
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Post by brnichols19873 on Aug 2, 2015 16:03:16 GMT -5
confirmed, Owens to start Tuesday in NYC...
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Post by larrycook on Aug 2, 2015 16:18:30 GMT -5
Wow! Could not ask for a bigger stage! First inning will be key,
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Post by soxfan4life on Aug 2, 2015 16:24:46 GMT -5
Brian Johnson makes his MLB debut after not pitching for 15 days and now Owens makes his debut against the Yankees on Tuesday.No pressure here .Haha
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Aug 2, 2015 17:20:14 GMT -5
I'm certainly pleased to see Owens up as I want he and Johnson both pitching in a 6 man rotation the rest of the way (5 man with Porcello out) while Kelly is moved to the bullpen - however, this is a tough order. That said, we need a starter for Tuesday night so I hope he's given the understanding that (regardless of the outcome on Tuesday) he's up in the rotation for the duration of the season. Good luck to him, obviously.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 2, 2015 20:51:28 GMT -5
Worried about him debuting vs the Yanks in NY. Remember another kid who debuted vs them without command and didn't throw all that hard name of Bobby Sprowl. My dad and I were at Fenway park that weekend in fact, called "The Yankee massacre series". Sprowl got hammered, never did turn into the great pitcher Boston thought he would.. Thrust into a playoff race, barely a year after being drafted.
Think the Sox should have set Owens up vs a crappy lineup.. Like the Rays, or another team and certainly not at Yankee stadium. Very shortsighted.
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Post by klostrophobic on Aug 2, 2015 21:10:06 GMT -5
Eh, as a lefty the toilet is one of the better ballparks to pitch in.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Aug 2, 2015 23:41:49 GMT -5
Worried about him debuting vs the Yanks in NY. Remember another kid who debuted vs them without command and didn't throw all that hard name of Bobby Sprowl. My dad and I were at Fenway park that weekend in fact, called "The Yankee massacre series". Sprowl got hammered, never did turn into the great pitcher Boston thought he would.. Thrust into a playoff race, barely a year after being drafted. Think the Sox should have set Owens up vs a crappy lineup.. Like the Rays, or another team and certainly not at Yankee stadium. Very shortsighted. Tazawa initially got thrown to the wolves in an extra inning game against the Yanks - ended up taking the loss. Turned out fine.
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Post by malynn19 on Aug 3, 2015 0:25:57 GMT -5
I am glad Owens is getting called up, and I don't care what team it is up against, RS fans need to relax. Win or Lose I just want him to pitch well. Good luck Henry,
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 3, 2015 8:18:59 GMT -5
I'm the only person here disappointed that Owens is getting called up right now. For selfish reasons, of course: the PawSox are in Syracuse this week, so I miss both him and Johnson.
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Post by beantown on Aug 3, 2015 9:10:15 GMT -5
I'm the only person here disappointed that Owens is getting called up right now. For selfish reasons, of course: the PawSox are in Syracuse this week, so I miss both him and Johnson. Well, not the *only* one.. I too had been planning to catch a start (at Scranton Railriders) next week. So it goes..
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Post by jmei on Aug 3, 2015 10:07:58 GMT -5
Your loss is my gain. I'll be attending his MLB debut at Yankee stadium tomorrow.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 3, 2015 11:23:20 GMT -5
Worried about him debuting vs the Yanks in NY. Remember another kid who debuted vs them without command and didn't throw all that hard name of Bobby Sprowl. My dad and I were at Fenway park that weekend in fact, called "The Yankee massacre series". Sprowl got hammered, never did turn into the great pitcher Boston thought he would.. Thrust into a playoff race, barely a year after being drafted. Think the Sox should have set Owens up vs a crappy lineup.. Like the Rays, or another team and certainly not at Yankee stadium. Very shortsighted. Well, I agree that would be ideal but sooner or later he will have to face the iron...sort of like playing JBJ against what 3 lefties in succession? What concerns me for the particular game is that I recall Owens as more over the top... and thus less likely to neutralize the lefty heavy line-up. He does not have impeccable control and is matched against patience and power. The Yankees are also on something of an offensive roll. True Owens has not given up a lot of hits in the minors but when he has (the times I have seen him) there is hard contact. If he continually misses with his FB, watch out for the change-up to entertain as a souvenir. Obviously I hope not but I'm guessing 4+ innings 5 runs with a couple of hrs.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 3, 2015 11:57:34 GMT -5
Worried about him debuting vs the Yanks in NY. Remember another kid who debuted vs them without command and didn't throw all that hard name of Bobby Sprowl. My dad and I were at Fenway park that weekend in fact, called "The Yankee massacre series". Sprowl got hammered, never did turn into the great pitcher Boston thought he would.. Thrust into a playoff race, barely a year after being drafted. Think the Sox should have set Owens up vs a crappy lineup.. Like the Rays, or another team and certainly not at Yankee stadium. Very shortsighted. Well, I agree that would be ideal but sooner or later he will have to face the iron...sort of like playing JBJ against what 3 lefties in succession? What concerns me for the particular game is that I recall Owens as more over the top... and thus less likely to neutralize the lefty heavy line-up. He does not have impeccable control and is matched against patience and power. The Yankees are also on something of an offensive roll. True Owens has not given up a lot of hits in the minors but when he has (the times I have seen him) there is hard contact. If he continually misses with his FB, watch out for the change-up to entertain as a souvenir. Obviously I hope not but I'm guessing 4+ innings 5 runs with a couple of hrs. Honestly, who cares? If he has a good debut, great, if not, it's not like it's a crucial game for us, and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy who's going to go into an emotional tailspin cause he didn't dominate his first time out. I'm in favor of getting him out there against big league hitters as much as possible
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Post by jchang on Aug 3, 2015 13:32:50 GMT -5
Its great that Owens is getting the call-up, I just wish it was not against a left heavy team in a left oriented ballpark
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