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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 1, 2015 10:02:31 GMT -5
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8185&position=PYes, Miley has superior FIP/xFIP. Yes, those numbers tend to vary less year-to-year. Both are surrogate markers for the true outcome of runs allowed. Wright has a lower ERA, better BAA, and slightly worse K/9 and BB/9. HR have killed him (and probably his FIP). I'd say they're "similar." You can argue that qualification if you like. Miley is 2.6 fWAR. Wright -0.2 fWAR. The best wright can be here is a 5/6/7. We have lots of options there. Being that he is out of options and the issues a Knuckler creates with catchers does it not make more sense to potential trade him??? Not that you could get much in return, but ?
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 1, 2015 10:07:31 GMT -5
I personally love what Owens possesses. I want him to get every opportunity to start for Boston. I think Johnson may have to start in AAA an he may be our extra pitcher next year at least to start. I also think Miley to me has value in the league and should get us some bullpen help. But where is he is a lefty and if he stays that's one less lefty to start for the rest.
I never seen so much fight from all these kids from all the other years ,this should shut up a lot of media about getting production from our prospects. I don't know what Shaw's future is but I hope he at least is a bench player for us next year.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 1, 2015 10:08:52 GMT -5
2015: $3.5 million, 2016: $6 million, 2017: $8.75 million, 2018: $12 million club option ($500,000 buyout) Why on earth would you trade Miley when his production costs you the above? Thats exactly what makes him valuable. If the Sox are looking to shake the rotation, there would be a lot of teams interested in Miley. Reasonable contract in money and term, he's durable, and he is likely to be a competent middle of the rotation pitcher on most teams.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2015 11:35:19 GMT -5
I personally love what Owens possesses. I want him to get every opportunity to start for Boston. I think Johnson may have to start in AAA an he may be our extra pitcher next year at least to start. I also think Miley to me has value in the league and should get us some bullpen help. But where is he is a lefty and if he stays that's one less lefty to start for the rest. I never seen so much fight from all these kids from all the other years ,this should shut up a lot of media about getting production from our prospects. I don't know what Shaw's future is but I hope he at least is a bench player for us next year. What about Johnson's health? I asked this question a week or so ago and then a couple of days later Lovullo (I think) was asked whether Johnson might have to undergo surgery. The answer seemed to be a 'wait and see' pending a then upcoming medical check. Any further info?
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Post by ramireja on Oct 1, 2015 11:46:48 GMT -5
The thing is, he's averaging actually less than an extra start per out...something like 3-4% more....its really a negligible, non-reliable difference. The removal of a single short start negates that difference, or if we want to believe that Owens was on a short leash in his first few starts, that probably comes close to washing out the difference as well. To be clear, I'm not basing that innings projection on just Owens' brief major-league track record, but also his minor league track record both this year and over his career. It also makes intuitive sense that a pitcher with a penchant for walks/strikeouts is unable to go as deep into games as a guy who is more pitch-to-contact. Hmm...Owens averaged 6.1 innings in the minors last year, and his average this year in the minors has been almost identical to what he's done in the majors....not to mention he became much more efficient after his rough start to the season. He averaged 6.2 innings per start (I should note that is literally 6.2 and not 6 innings, 2 outs) in June and July before his call up to the majors. I agree it makes intuitive sense that his walk/strikeout totals would lead to shorter outings, but the numbers don't necessarily back it up. Intuition seems to defy Owens which is precisely the reason why we still can't believe his stuff could lead to a 2/3 caliber pitcher in the majors despite his elite contact/swinging strike rates to date.
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Post by rafael on Oct 1, 2015 12:19:05 GMT -5
I'd be happy with a rotation of five Wade Mileys.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2015 13:07:26 GMT -5
I'd be happy with a rotation of five Wade Mileys. I wouldn't be. That would make for a very average rotation. I'd like to think the Red Sox strive to be better than average. Five Wade Miley's aren't going to win a you a World Series. One or two could help. To me that's like saying 5 Tim Wakefields would be an acceptable rotation, and Wake had value, like Miley does, but you wouldn't your whole rotation to consist of that kind of talent level. However if you wanted to sell me on the idea of 9 Mookies for the lineup, I could go for that. If Miley were to be dealt, it wouldn't/shouldn't be for prospects, but rather to a team that has a pitcher who's better than Miley (and can soak up most of if not all of his innings) that's probably on a short-term contract. Normally such a team would be seeking prospects, but it's possible that instead of pitching prospects (like Owens) to replace the departing pitcher, the Sox would deal positional prospect(s) needed by the other team and include Miley in the deal. The other team would still get young talent that can impact them if it's positional help they need, but would get a reasonably cheap cost controlled innings eater to replace the innings of the guy they're trading. This is theoretical of course. It would have to be just the right circumstances for both teams. Odds are pretty good that Miley stays put and the Sox only upgrade one rotation spot.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2015 13:10:17 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Oct 9, 2015 16:49:43 GMT -5
To be clear, there are scenarios in which I would trade Miley. That would require (a) being confident that Johnson's elbow concerns are not a concern (if he is healthy, that adds an extra layer of depth that might mitigate some of my depth concerns) and (b) getting enough in return in Miley (something like $20m of surplus value, with a preference for major league players of need (starting-caliber fourth outfielder, elite relief pitcher) but a willingness to accept a prospect package headed by a top-75 or so prospect). But I'm not confident in either of those scenarios, especially (b). ADD: to support my surplus value estimate, here's a comparison of Miley and Mike Leake over the past three years. They're basically the exact same pitcher (one caveat: Miley is a year older). Miley will be paid $26.75m over the next three years (with an option for the third year). Leake is going to get something like, what, 5/$80m? We're probably more in agreement than on first blush, then. I'm not in a rush to get rid of Miley, and certainly not at a discount return-wise, for all of the reasons we've all gone over. If he's the fourth starter, he's a very good fourth starter. If he's the 3, then he's passable...with the hope that their 4/5 can be better than the usual suspects at those spots, because their 1/2 as of this writing are well below-average (although I think Rodriguez projects reasonably, with moderate risk, as a 2 next year, since he was fairly close to that this year). If Leake will get 5/80 (I'm guessing more like 4/60, but that's splitting hairs), don't you think there would be several contenders willing to trade a quality prospect in the 50 range and maybe another in the 150 range to save $20M+ over the next three years, and have a reliable 3/4? Could those players, and, say Margot (30-40 range) and Johnson or even Marrero be flipped to Cincy for Raisel Iglesias? Maybe it even takes less...or Miley+Marrero+Johnson+Margot+? for Iglesias/Chapman? Tbh, I think the rotation is better than it seems, mostly because of the depth and the upside of the younger guys. I also believe that, should the Sox acquire a 2 instead of a true 1, they'll have a rotation similarly capable to 2013's version. As you've said, this year's plan was faulty not in concept, but execution. Better defense and an improved offense can certainly cover up the lack of a true #1, provided the rest of the rotation pitches at least as well as expected *for their rotation slot*...and the bullpen is markedly upgraded. Considering the relative inexpensiveness of high-leverage bullpen pieces to an elite starter, maybe it's more fiscally sound to go that route. But it's also probably more risky, because 'pen arms are volatile. I would just hope that they'd look into trading Miley and giving Owens the 5 spot, provided they can upgrade the front of the rotation. I don't think Buchholz will return sufficient value until next spring, when teams can see him pitch, to make trading him worthwhile. Maybe that means upgrading the rotation and seeing how things shake out in the spring...although that might reduce their leverage in a trade.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2015 13:50:05 GMT -5
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 14, 2015 16:31:10 GMT -5
Enjoyable article. I'm a big fan of Henry. Another couple of months in AAA improving his command would be optimal. I really like Owens and Brian Johnson. I'd be surprised if at least one of them doesn't have a long solid career.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2015 16:48:00 GMT -5
I'm surprised by his multiple references to 'swing paths' and how pitching to swing paths is different in the majors where they have more robust advanced scouting reports. I wonder how common this change is for rookie pitchers and how much it affects their performance.
Will an MiLB pitcher who doesn't pitch to swing paths (due to the lack of scouting) always progress at the same rate once swing paths are incorporated into their pitching? Is this something that can be scouted to predict future success? I find this really interesting.
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