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Post by westcoastfan on Aug 22, 2013 14:23:20 GMT -5
Okay, been watching this site and had to reply. Have followed Owens for years. A little history. As a high school sophmore he led a braves scout team with all under classmen to the WWBA championship and was named most valuble pitcher. It was the first time in the tourneys history an under class team had won. The team was led by Tom Batista who eventually signed Owens for the Red Sox. As a Junior he was named an Aflac all american and pitched in the Aflac game. Others on the team were guys like Robert Stepehnson, Archie Bradley, Jose Fernandez and Daniel Norris. Owens was the only pitcher to retire his side in order all by strike out even though his velo wasnt as high as others. Owens was named Cal Hi sports Mr. Baseball his senior year . He was also the cif southern section Player of year. To give you an idea of the competition he faced in so cal , the year he was drafted there were more kids drafted from the cif southern section than every state in the country except texas and florida. In other words so cal is still the hot bed of talent. He was then drafted 36th (in any other year he would have gone much higher) by Theo Epstein. The sox felt he didnt need to pitch in gcl and sent him home. Last year he was sent (as you know) right to full season ball. You all know about this year.
To me it is laughable reading posts where people are trying to find out why Owens is so effective while only throwing 90 mph. The radar gun has become the equivilent of the 40 yrd dash in football. Far too much emphasis is put on it...The guy can pitch...its as simple as that. Last year the Tigers faced the Giants in the world series. In each game the Tigers starting pitcher threw harder than the Giants starting pitcher. The Giants swept the Tigers and the Giants starters dominated. High velocity matters most if you are a reliever. A starter needs much more. Arnoldis Chapman is a perfect example..throws 100mph but failed miserably as a starter because a starter needs to be able to get thru a line up 3-4 times and 100mph straight as a string doesnt cut it. How many times does Clayton Kershaw hit 95? Owens has hit that this year but is far more effective at 91 with movement. I mean his last game there wasnt even a ball hit to the out field. And thats not the first time thats happened.
I would recommend everyone go back and watch on milbtv his last start. You will see his fastball cut in on left handers. He has a natural cut on his four seam fastball. Its all about the movement. Even the scouting reports that knock him for fast ball velo mention how has his ball has late life / run. The Red sox brass must just roll in laughter when the bloggers project him as a #4. Theres a reason he was paid a higher signing bonus than Barnes and Bradley....and he hasnt been traded.
Henry Owens will one day be in the discussion of best pitcher in baseball. Sit back and enjoy it.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 22, 2013 15:12:57 GMT -5
Okay, been watching this site and had to reply. Have followed Owens for years. A little history. As a high school sophmore he led a braves scout team with all under classmen to the WWBA championship and was named most valuble pitcher. It was the first time in the tourneys history an under class team had won. The team was led by Tom Batista who eventually signed Owens for the Red Sox. As a Junior he was named an Aflac all american and pitched in the Aflac game. Others on the team were guys like Robert Stepehnson, Archie Bradley, Jose Fernandez and Daniel Norris. Owens was the only pitcher to retire his side in order all by strike out even though his velo wasnt as high as others. Owens was named Cal Hi sports Mr. Baseball his senior year . He was also the cif southern section Player of year. To give you an idea of the competition he faced in so cal , the year he was drafted there were more kids drafted from the cif southern section than every state in the country except texas and florida. In other words so cal is still the hot bed of talent. He was then drafted 36th (in any other year he would have gone much higher) by Theo Epstein. The sox felt he didnt need to pitch in gcl and sent him home. Last year he was sent (as you know) right to full season ball. You all know about this year. To me it is laughable reading posts where people are trying to find out why Owens is so effective while only throwing 90 mph. The radar gun has become the equivilent of the 40 yrd dash in football. Far too much emphasis is put on it...The guy can pitch...its as simple as that. Last year the Tigers faced the Giants in the world series. In each game the Tigers starting pitcher threw harder than the Giants starting pitcher. The Giants swept the Tigers and the Giants starters dominated. High velocity matters most if you are a reliever. A starter needs much more. Arnoldis Chapman is a perfect example..throws 100mph but failed miserably as a starter because a starter needs to be able to get thru a line up 3-4 times and 100mph straight as a string doesnt cut it. How many times does Clayton Kershaw hit 95? Owens has hit that this year but is far more effective at 91 with movement. I mean his last game there wasnt even a ball hit to the out field. And thats not the first time thats happened. I would recommend everyone go back and watch on milbtv his last start. You will see his fastball cut in on left handers. He has a natural cut on his four seam fastball. Its all about the movement. Even the scouting reports that knock him for fast ball velo mention how has his ball has late life / run. The Red sox brass must just roll in laughter when the bloggers project him as a #4. Theres a reason he was paid a higher signing bonus than Barnes and Bradley....and he hasnt been traded. Henry Owens will one day be in the discussion of best pitcher in baseball. Sit back and enjoy it. Welcome to the site. Thank you for your input. Henry has had an impressive campaign. Love me some young pitchers who don't give up hits
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 23, 2013 11:12:31 GMT -5
I asked earlier how likely it is that Owens improves his command, but I wasn't asking so much about him specifically ... that's unknowable, really. What I should've said is, "How often do pitchers improve their command?" It's one of those things that is said about so many pitchers, but I don't really know how likely it is.
I feel like I have a much better sense of how likely a guy improving his approach at the plate is than a pitcher improving his command. I just don't have any sense at all how often that happens and how hard it is. Is it extremely common, happens to the successful ones but most others don't, not nearly as common as we think? All I have are vague impressions and some anecdotal stories about certain pitchers. is there any real study or data on this?
I think it's absolutely the central question about Owens. He's nearly unhittable a good percentage of the time, but sometimes he just doesn't have the control to make this work, like last night when he walked 7 guys. It's not borderline with him. I think if he has acceptable control, he could be a top starter in baseball. If he doesn't, he may wash out completely or at best have an upside of Andrew Miller, a good late-inning reliever who pieces it together late.
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Post by jmei on Aug 23, 2013 17:16:37 GMT -5
I asked earlier how likely it is that Owens improves his command, but I wasn't asking so much about him specifically ... that's unknowable, really. What I should've said is, "How often do pitchers improve their command?" It's one of those things that is said about so many pitchers, but I don't really know how likely it is. I feel like I have a much better sense of how likely a guy improving his approach at the plate is than a pitcher improving his command. I just don't have any sense at all how often that happens and how hard it is. Is it extremely common, happens to the successful ones but most others don't, not nearly as common as we think? All I have are vague impressions and some anecdotal stories about certain pitchers. is there any real study or data on this? I think it's absolutely the central question about Owens. He's nearly unhittable a good percentage of the time, but sometimes he just doesn't have the control to make this work, like last night when he walked 7 guys. It's not borderline with him. I think if he has acceptable control, he could be a top starter in baseball. If he doesn't, he may wash out completely or at best have an upside of Andrew Miller, a good late-inning reliever who pieces it together late. Speier provides a few examples in his latest minor league notes:
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 23, 2013 17:57:09 GMT -5
That's interesting about Gio Gonzalez. Still, I hope Owens can do better than that with his control.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2013 18:24:29 GMT -5
If Owens can turn into Gio Gonzalez, that would be pretty sweet. However, his walk rate is much lower than Owens - under 10% each of the last two seasons, while Owens is at 13%. Also, Gio's fastball has averaged 93.3 and 92.9 the last two years.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 24, 2013 9:18:27 GMT -5
So, a good question to ask: what becomes of tall LHP's who are BA Top 100 prospects despite walking a lot of guys? There have been 180 LHP who have made the Top 100 since its inception in 1990. They've made the list a total of 282 times, led by Ryan Anderson and Martin Perez with 5 times each. Owens should join the group of 75 who have made it more than once (guys who made it just once range from Steve Avery to John Curtice, i.e., instant successes and instant washouts). The breakdown by height: 5'9": 1 5'10": 3 5'11": 4 6'0": 18 6'1": 23 6'2": 33 6'3": 41 6'4": 28 6'5": 14 6'6": 9 6'7": 3 6'8": 1 6'10": 2 Let's take a look at the 28 guys besides Owens who were 6'5" or taller. We'll compare these guys to Owens at the same age, which is actually 20 and 21, not 19 and 20. Why? He's a July baby. It's always been arbitrary to call someone born June 30 "20 y/o" and one born July 1 "19 y/o," but the defense of that is that there has to be some arbitrary cutoff, so why not choose mid-season? But in fact an August 1 cutoff is not arbitrary -- or, rather, it's the arbitrary cutoff used by youth leagues and many school systems. Kids born in July have an extra year of playing experience than kids of the "same age" born in August through June. (And August 1 is closer to the midpoint of short-season ball than July 1, to boot). Three of the 28 never pitched in the minors at Owens' age: David Price and Drew Pomeranz were too old coming out of college, while Adam Loewen was playing the OF at that age. So now we're down to 25. Ten of the pitchers had good or decent command at ages 20 and 21, in rough order from best to most ordinary: Madison Bumgarner, Mark Mulder, Aaron Poreda, Jeff Francis, Tyler Skaggs, Andy Pettitte, Sean West, Ross Detwiler, Nick Hagadone, and Dan Smith. All of these guys had walk rates better than .090, whereas Owens was .104 last year and is up to .130 this year. Four guys suffered injuries which render them useless as comps: Ryan Anderson, Greg Miller, Ty Hill, and Casey Crosby. Five guys were not good enough at age 20 to crack the Top 100: Pete Schourek, Steve Cooke, Ben Kozlowski, and Alan Newman, all of whom made the list after their age 21 season, and Brad Pennington, who made it after age 23. I may want to come back to the first four guys later, to determine whether they just missed making the top 100 at age 20, in which case they'd be OK comps -- but none of them had K rates anywhere close to Owens, and Kozlowski and Newman just made it into the Top 100 at age 21 (80 and 96 respectively; Schourek was 33 and Cooke was 52). But that will take some research. Jonathan Figueroa (6'5", 205), a Venezuelan Dodger farmhand, was ranked 35 going into 2003 after putting up a 1.42 ERA at age 18 in advanced rookie and low-A, despite a .130 BB rate. He developed shoulder tendonitis in fall instructs, got out of shape over the winter, changed his mechanics next spring to compensate for the shoulder, and never put up an ERA better than 4.69 or got past high-A. So he's not any kind of a comp, either, but I didn't know that when I started writing this paragraph. Ironically, he was replaced as the Dodger #2 prospect by ... Greg Miller. (The Dodgers seem to have been late to the game in protecting young pitcher's arms.) Robbie Beckett was the Padres' 1st round pick (25th overall) in 1990 and was tremendously wild and completely ineffective in his true age 18 debut season (he's another July baby), but got ranked 50th anyway. He still had BB rates of .242 and .223 at ages 20 and 21, in low-A and high-A respectively, but somehow got ranked 77 after the latter year despite having a 6.02 ERA and being converted to relief. I'm guessing he threw hard. And he's not much of a comp. Are you keeping score at home? We're down to 4 guys. CC Sabathia, despite being the same height, is perhaps too good to be a comp. And perhaps too wide. He was ranked 57th and 7th after his true age 19 and 20 seasons (he's yet another July baby), despite walk rates of .127 and .115. His MLB rates: .125, .099, .079, .092, .075, and then a big breakthrough at age 26: .055, .038, .058, after which he's settled down in the .053 to .076 range. Two guys were pitching in college at age 20 and were highly ranked after they were drafted and debuted. You may have been waiting to hear their names. One is Andrew Miller, who's pretty much the same size as Owens. Even in his career resurrection as a Sox reliever, he has a .119 BB rate, essentially the same as his .123 rate from 2006 to 2011. Chris Sale, like Sabathia and Miller, throws significantly harder than Owens, and was more highly ranked as a result. He had a .119 BB rate across the minors and majors at age 21, and has since gone .094, .066, and .053. And that leaves Andy Sisco, the huge (6'10", 255) former Cubs' 2nd-round pick (the year they took Mark Prior 2nd overall) who was ranked 53 and 77 after his age 19 and 20 seasons, while posting BB rates of .122 and .080 in short-season and low-A. But his high-A BB rate went back to .120, and he had a 4.21 ERA, since, like every other one of these comps, he was a hard thrower, in his case, with average secondary stuff. He was lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Royals, had a very good year as a LHR despite a .128 BB rate, then flamed out. Like Miller, he has never improved his command. So, three conclusions: 1) The phenomenon of tall lefties improving their command certainly happens, but it's not a guarantee. 2) It's freakishly unlikely that three of the last seven guys in this grouping were born in July. Very few MLB players are born in July, because they do just barely qualify for youth leagues and school, and hence are the youngest kids in their cohort, and get the least coaching attention. That may be a significant contributor to their wildness. 3) Henry Owens is unique, at least in the BA Top 100 list era. No tall LHP has ever approached his K rate and prospect ranking while possessing his combination of ordinary FB ball velocity and subpar BB rate. In fact, when you think about it ... if I told you that a prospect was fanning 11.4 guys per 9 while walking 4.8, and you knew nothing else about him, what would you guess for his FB velocity? And that's why I'm not going to look at the 28 guys who are 6'4." It may well be that "Tall LH" can be removed from conclusion #3. Edit: at that age, Gio Gonzalez was sitting low 90's and touching 96, and his FB was his second best pitch after his curve.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 25, 2013 9:55:27 GMT -5
Wow 7 walks!
Looking at the pitches he threw and it is clear he just could not get comfortable out there. I've heard others say he looked fatigued and did not finish his throws, but I did not see it.
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Post by soxcentral on Aug 25, 2013 12:11:29 GMT -5
2) It's freakishly unlikely that three of the last seven guys in this grouping were born in July. Very few MLB players are born in July, because they do just barely qualify for youth leagues and school, and hence are the youngest kids in their cohort, and get the least coaching attention. That may be a significant contributor to their wildness. . Great post, Eric. Having read Outliers I'm aware of the challenges that athletes and students born just before arbitrary cutoff dates have in reaching the top of their fields. Perhaps being tall, left-handed pitchers which teams covet accounts for how so many moved up the ladder in this group. Owens really is a unique case within our system right now. So many reasons to say 'don't get excited' and yet he continues to impress.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2013 15:34:41 GMT -5
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 28, 2013 16:39:45 GMT -5
While the first scout seemed discouraged, this quote stood out to me. "“I see future physicality, angle and deception with plus command,” said the AL evaluator, who suggested that Owens looked to him like a pitcher who will have (on the 20-80 scouting scale, with 50 being average) a 60 fastball, 70 changeup and at least a 50 curveball."
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Post by jchang on Aug 28, 2013 20:50:18 GMT -5
I don't think the scout is discouraged in not seeing how Owens could be a top of rotation guy, you don't find these in the supplemental round. Heck, getting a 4/5 starter there is a good find. But he is baffled at Owens getting the outs like an elite pitcher. So setting aside the tall lefty comps that Eric covered in depth, how many legit 1/2 pitchers are there that work on a 90-92 FB? I know Owens can throw harder, but he works at 89-92. Edit: how many legit 2 pitchers are there with a 90-92FB?
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Post by njsox on Aug 28, 2013 21:04:12 GMT -5
I think I remember years ago that certain pitchers were throwing too fast, too young and now we all seemed to be worried that Owens isn't sitting 93+ at 21 years old. The skill of getting guys out is more important than velocity and if Owens ever does see an uptick in velocity then he could be elite. 89-92 with a plus change is definitely a recipe for success in MLB and I think we will be plenty happy with Owens at that speed if he can see an improvement with the command.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Aug 28, 2013 21:44:31 GMT -5
To me it is laughable reading posts where people are trying to find out why Owens is so effective while only throwing 90 mph. The radar gun has become the equivilent of the 40 yrd dash in football. Far too much emphasis is put on it... Yes and no. Yes, way too much emphasis is placed on velocity, but it shouldn't be disregarded either ... especially with a guy like Owens, who hasn't shown very good command so far. If he's consistently putting guys on base and getting behind in counts against more advanced hitters, his 90 mph fastball in the zone will get crushed. (While that's probably true for a guy who throws 95, he at least has a little more leeway when he leaves one out over the plate.) Again, I'm really not too concerned about Owens' velocity. What does worry me slightly, though, is that he hasn't shown much improvement with his control after about two full seasons of minor league ball. I still think he's a terrific prospect, but hopefully we'll start to see signs of more consistent command next year.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 28, 2013 21:48:13 GMT -5
I'm very new at looking at these stats and am probably all wet here and I am definitely NOT comparing HO to these players but all this concern about his relative lack of FB velocity made me curious so I looked up couple of very good pitcher and found that Roy Halladay seemed to sit at 92 in his peak years and has had a great career and Greg Maddux only threw in the mid 80s with his FB. Now I know that Maddux seemed to be able to hit a 5 inch spot almost every time and had about a dozen different routes and speeds to get there and more than once I've heard ex players say how that 0 for 4 against Halladay was the easiest one they ever had. So if HO is already at 89 - 92 it seems like he has enough heat and all that really matters is his continuing to improve his ability to locate and if more velo comes fine but it's not a necessity. If this is just an echo of njsox post, sorry, but I'm curious what some of you more experienced guys think.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Aug 28, 2013 21:53:11 GMT -5
I'm not trying to pick on you, but I always think it's silly when people compare prospects to guys like Halladay or Maddux. Maddux especially is one of the biggest anomalies I've ever seen in sports - there's a reason he's the exception to the rule.
A good rule of thumb when trying to make prospect projections is to never compare them to HOFers.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 28, 2013 21:56:43 GMT -5
I'm very new at looking at these stats and am probably all wet here and I am definitely NOT comparing HO to these players but all this concern about his relative lack of FB velocity made me curious so I looked up couple of very good pitcher and found that Roy Halladay seemed to sit at 92 in his peak years and has had a great career and Greg Maddux only threw in the mid 80s with his FB. Now I know that Maddux seemed to be able to hit a 5 inch spot almost every time and had about a dozen different routes and speeds to get there and more than once I've heard ex players say how that 0 for 4 against Halladay was the easiest one they ever had. So if HO is already at 89 - 92 it seems like he has enough heat and all that really matters is his continuing to improve his ability to locate and if more velo comes fine but it's not a necessity. If this is just an echo of njsox post, sorry, but I'm curious what some of you more experienced guys think. Ah, the Maddux Velocity Myth...
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2013 22:20:30 GMT -5
I agree with wcp, I'm far more concerned about the lack of command than any perceived shortcomings in velocity. There just aren't that many hard throwing lefties out there-- only three lefties average more than 93 mph on their fastball (Price (93.5), Holland (93.5), and Sale (93.0)), and, even with his diminished velocity, our very own Jon Lester comes in fourth at 92.6. Kershaw is next at a mere 92.5. If Owens can sit comfortable in the 91-92 range, he'll be fine, especially considering his plus offspeed stuff.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 28, 2013 22:30:37 GMT -5
Not feeling picked on and I also wasn't making the comp except to say that there are instances of exceptional pitchers without great FB. HO hasn't at this time the command of either of those and I'm not projecting him to have that but merely pointing out that there seems to be a bias in the discussion towards Owens needing to add velocity when there are cases where that is not called for and SO FAR this year he is demonstrating that he is a candidate for that category in age appropriate levels. As for the Greg Maddux velo myth, I haven't heard of it but only go the info from fangraphs www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P which had data from 2002 on regarding velocity (maybe not available earlier) glad for edification if you would supply it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 28, 2013 22:44:15 GMT -5
Greg Maddux was 36 in 2002. Suffice to say he threw much harder when he was 26.
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Post by njsox on Aug 29, 2013 7:49:03 GMT -5
I'm very new at looking at these stats and am probably all wet here and I am definitely NOT comparing HO to these players but all this concern about his relative lack of FB velocity made me curious so I looked up couple of very good pitcher and found that Roy Halladay seemed to sit at 92 in his peak years and has had a great career and Greg Maddux only threw in the mid 80s with his FB. Now I know that Maddux seemed to be able to hit a 5 inch spot almost every time and had about a dozen different routes and speeds to get there and more than once I've heard ex players say how that 0 for 4 against Halladay was the easiest one they ever had. So if HO is already at 89 - 92 it seems like he has enough heat and all that really matters is his continuing to improve his ability to locate and if more velo comes fine but it's not a necessity. If this is just an echo of njsox post, sorry, but I'm curious what some of you more experienced guys think. Ah, the Maddux Velocity Myth... When Maddux was in his prime he was 88-94 with a fastball he could move several inches and would often drop it back door on righties , painting the black and making it nearly unhittable.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 29, 2013 8:30:45 GMT -5
As for the Greg Maddux velo myth, I haven't heard of it but only go the info from fangraphs www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P which had data from 2002 on regarding velocity (maybe not available earlier) glad for edification if you would supply it. I think by "the Greg Maddux velo myth" isn't a myth that he didn't throw as hard you think - the myth is that every crafty RHP with decent control who only throws 89-90mph can somehow maybe become Greg Maddux.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 29, 2013 9:41:51 GMT -5
Ah, the Maddux Velocity Myth... When Maddux was in his prime he was 88-94 with a fastball he could move several inches and would often drop it back door on righties , painting the black and making it nearly unhittable. Yeah, this is the point about Maddux. He's used as an example of how pitchers with less-than-great stuff can be successful, but his stuff was ridiculous. His fastball had a combination of good velocity, insane movement, and superb command that made him one of the best ever. What's that got to do with Henry Owens?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2013 10:50:35 GMT -5
Completely off-topic, but you youngsters may be amused, or shocked, or dismayed, to know that Maddux was completely underappreciated as a Cub, because, really and truly, no one understood park effects. No writers, few GMs. He was a FA and I thought the Sox should go to to any lengths to sign him, because he had secretly been an ace or near-ace for four years (averaging 119 ERA+ and 4.4 WAR) and at age 26 had become the best pitcher in baseball. And although he was coming off a CY when the Braves signed him, I don't recall that there was that much competition for him. He was regarded as a very good pitcher who was just coming off one great year, instead of a great pitcher who was coming off a mind-blowing one.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 29, 2013 11:58:34 GMT -5
I'm not worried about the velocity for two reasons: one, it's actually fine, as jmei points out, for a lefty to sit 90-92mph, especially with excellent secondary stuff; and two, all 91mph are not created equal. He's very tall with excellent deception in his delivery which takes a crucial fraction of a second off the time between when the batter picks up the ball and when it gets to the plate.
It really ALL comes down to control with Owens for me. If he tightens it up significantly to where he's above average, he could be an ace. Average command makes his ceiling a solid, mid-rotation guy on a team like the Sox. And so on down the line ... down to "doesn't improve at all, and he floats around as a reliever teams take a chance on."
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