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Red Sox acquire RHP Nate Eovaldi from TB for Jalen Beeks
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 25, 2018 12:02:30 GMT -5
Oh ok so like less important stats but ones that are more in line with your pre-existing biases. Solid analysis. Everyone has bias once they decide they like or dislike something, including you. I'm not sure how Eovaldi's HR problem is going to disappear moving from Tampa to Boston. And his home stats in TB are far better than his road stats. If you think that means nothing, then go ahead and let your bias decide that. He's thrown 57 innings on the year and more than a third of the homers he's given up came in one start in Houston. Take that out and he's given up one more homer on the road than at home in about twice as many innings - im pretty skeptical that the trop helped him keep the hall in the park much
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2018 12:04:52 GMT -5
Hate Dombrowski all you want, but FenwaytheHardway is right, Dombrowski can pick the right guys before they are starting to get really good.
Dombrowski maximizes. He also is just as good as anyone at evaluating talent at the major league level.
Beeks' numbers were great in AAA, but there are solid questions whether he can actually start or be a more valuable reliever. Tampa Bay will love this guy, because he can be a part of their circus "let's go with a bullpen day every fifth day."
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 25, 2018 12:06:47 GMT -5
Dombrowski, destroyer of farm systems. God this team will be awful in 3 years. Saying it a second time doesn't make it any more real.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2018 12:07:35 GMT -5
Everyone has bias once they decide they like or dislike something, including you. I'm not sure how Eovaldi's HR problem is going to disappear moving from Tampa to Boston. And his home stats in TB are far better than his road stats. If you think that means nothing, then go ahead and let your bias decide that. He's thrown 57 innings on the year and more than a third of the homers he's given up came in one start in Houston. Take that out and he's given up one more homer on the road than at home in about twice as many innings - im pretty skeptical that the trop helped him keep the hall in the park much I hope you're right and that it's not a problem whatsoever. He had the same problem in NY for what it's worth.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 12:08:40 GMT -5
Beeks' numbers were great in AAA, but there are solid questions whether he can actually start or be a more valuable reliever. Tampa Bay will love this guy, because he can be a part of their circus "let's go with a bullpen day every fifth day." By circus, you mean their strategy of using all of their pitchers to maximize the effectiveness of the full staff rather than let them be defined by their roles, leading to them far outpacing their preseason projections? That circus?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 25, 2018 12:08:49 GMT -5
Dombrowski does have a history of acquiring starters right on the verge of breaking out... Well, this would be just after, while the Yankees (among others) were asleep at the wheel. But great point in general. DDo is what he is. He's a GM that prioritizes winning now over the long term, and hence the worst guy to be evaluated on a website devoted to dreaming about the latter. But his track record as a judge of talent is tremendous. I was one of the biggest Espinoza fans on the board, and I loved the Pomeranz trade. I was one of the bigger Beeks fans on the board, and I'm ecstatic about this one. Do you really think they'd (be able to afford to) re-sign Eovaldi?
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 25, 2018 12:11:12 GMT -5
Meh. Although Eovaldi has been the last month besides that start against the Twins. If he can keep on riding that wave, it could be a decent pickup
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wildsox
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Post by wildsox on Jul 25, 2018 12:11:32 GMT -5
Dombrowski, destroyer of farm systems. God this team will be awful in 3 years.If that's actually true, that's all the more reason to go all in right now. What, you need Beeks around so you can win 79 games instead of 78 three years from now? Exactly! We are on pace for 100+ wins and possibly one of the best Sox regular seasons ever. Let's enjoy the ride. 3 years from now is a long time to change things.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 25, 2018 12:14:01 GMT -5
According to a website I visit from time to time, soxprospects.com, Beeks projects as a "bench/utility player," with a ceiling of "average starter." I'm not sure what people thought we were going to trade to try to improve the team, but this doesn't seem like a real high price to me, and Eovaldi is a better addition than I was expecting.
I think the thinness of the farm system is distorting perceptions a little bit. Beeks is a top-ten prospect for us, but that says more about the system than about Beeks, in my opinion.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 25, 2018 12:14:41 GMT -5
I like the move. I think Eovaldi is on a upward track. In fact, my instinct is to offer him an two-year $6M per year extension with bonuses at 150, 175, and 200 innings, making the deal worth potentially $11M per year. From his and his agent’s perspective he gets security and back to free agency by age 30 for a second bite at the money pie. The rotation should have (in whatever order) Sale, Porcello, Price, Eovaldi, Johnson until Eduardo or Wright is available to replace the weakerstlink. Pomeranz should get a run in the pen. If he doesn’t want to do that, release him. He’s a sunk cost who is not near what he was in 2017.
Beeks was intriquing but this is a win-now team for 2018-2019, and his ceiling is likely a #4, which is a replaceable commodity. If you need a spot start it’s Velazquez or a reliever game unless they want to find some 40 man space and give Shawaryn a spin. He’s prob the best next starter in the high end of the system with Beeks now an inhabitant or the Trop (or Durham).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2018 12:15:02 GMT -5
Beeks' numbers were great in AAA, but there are solid questions whether he can actually start or be a more valuable reliever. Tampa Bay will love this guy, because he can be a part of their circus "let's go with a bullpen day every fifth day." By circus, you mean their strategy of using all of their pitchers to maximize the effectiveness of the full staff rather than let them be defined by their roles, leading to them far outpacing their preseason projections? That circus? Yes, that one where that plan will most likely be dumped in a year or two.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2018 12:16:12 GMT -5
Well, this would be just after, while the Yankees (among others) were asleep at the wheel. But great point in general. DDo is what he is. He's a GM that prioritizes winning now over the long term, and hence the worst guy to be evaluated on a website devoted to dreaming about the latter. But his track record as a judge of talent is tremendous. I was one of the biggest Espinoza fans on the board, and I loved the Pomeranz trade. I was one of the bigger Beeks fans on the board, and I'm ecstatic about this one. Do you really think they'd (be able to afford to) re-sign Eovaldi? I'd hope so. He does have valid injury concerns however.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 12:27:29 GMT -5
By circus, you mean their strategy of using all of their pitchers to maximize the effectiveness of the full staff rather than let them be defined by their roles, leading to them far outpacing their preseason projections? That circus? Yes, that one where that plan will most likely be dumped in a year or two. This is getting off topic but I think you're only going to see more teams doing what the Rays have been doing. It works.
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Post by h11233 on Jul 25, 2018 12:29:44 GMT -5
WAR is a useful stat, but I don't think it's very useful in evaluating a trade like this. Who knows what the Sox chances of winning a title will be between 2019 and 2024... but they're pretty good in 2018 and this trade increases those chances. WAR doesn't account for that and it would be very difficult to quantify. Addressing a need via trade at the deadline will always cost you. I think this one was worth it. Who mentioned WAR? You seem to be projecting. There's obviously a fine line somewhere between "present value being worth more than future value," and "any present value being worth more than all future value." It's the line where trading Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling for 2.5 years of Mike Boddicker ends up being fine, because the guys they dealt turn into a good and elite player years later, but trading Jeff Bagwell for eight weeks of Larry Andersen is bad in a way I don't think I need to explain. Jalen Beeks isn't Jeff Bagwell, of course. But the surety that people have that Nathan Eovaldi is good just seems strange to me. His upside his high, but... he hasn't quite put it together. If Cora and Levangie's pitchers usage and Bannister's tinkering can make him live up to that, even for a short time, then that's awesome and I'll be happy to be wrong! I guess I just assumed that's how one would quantify the value of Beeks from 2019-2024 relative to Eovaldi's value for the remainder of the season/postseason. The general idea I was trying to communicate was that any assessment of the value each team gets in this trade has to account for the value of filling a glaring need for a team with an excellent chance at a title this year. I'm not aware of any metric that does that, and it seems difficult to quantify... So it's all very subjective.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2018 12:31:04 GMT -5
Yes, that one where that plan will most likely be dumped in a year or two. This is getting off topic but I think you're only going to see more teams doing what the Rays have been doing. It works. I'm not so sure about that. Maybe more cheap teams will (because of cheap rookie status deals protecting them), but I don't see a lot team going away from traditional baseball for a while. That's my opinion on that and I'll leave it at that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 12:33:01 GMT -5
Do you really think they'd (be able to afford to) re-sign Eovaldi? I'd hope so. He does have valid injury concerns however.That's not necessarily true either. Players who make a full recovery from TJ, which Eovaldi certainly seems to, there's a 3-5 year "grace period" where they're at lower risk for another TJ than the average pitcher.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2018 12:39:28 GMT -5
I'd hope so. He does have valid injury concerns however.That's not necessarily true either. Players who make a full recovery from TJ, which Eovaldi certainly seems to, there's a 3-5 year "grace period" where they're at lower risk for another TJ than the average pitcher. I only said that, because I read somewhere that player's with injuries are usually more prone to injuries. I believe Eovaldi had more than just Tommy John surgery two years ago too (he had another elbow injury, I believe). I hope you're right FWIW and he's definitely a interesting resign candidate.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2018 12:46:47 GMT -5
This is getting off topic but I think you're only going to see more teams doing what the Rays have been doing. It works. I'm not so sure about that. Maybe more cheap teams will (because of cheap rookie status deals protecting them), but I don't see a lot team going away from traditional baseball for a while. That's my opinion on that and I'll leave it at that. I mean you've watched the playoffs in recent years right?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 25, 2018 12:50:03 GMT -5
Dombrowski, destroyer of farm systems. God this team will be awful in 3 years.If that's actually true, that's all the more reason to go all in right now. What, you need Beeks around so you can win 79 games instead of 78 three years from now? This is the best Sox team in my memory - and my memory goes back to the 1950s - and it should be the World Series winner. However, in baseball "should" often doesn't happen, especially if the team hopes to get past a key weakness without taking any action. The Sox have two key weaknesses that might well cost them the WS or even getting to it: starting pitching and relief pitching. I am less concerned about the relief pitching unless there is something wrong with Kelly. He is going through a bad period, maybe due to overuse. If that is the case, then he might get fixed. It also is possible that the need might be addressed inside the organization. However, there is no organizational solution to the starting pitching problem. The odds seem fairly good that Wright and Rodriguez will not be back this year. Pomeranz may not be effective this year. I don't think it was a coincidence that the trade for Eovaldi occurred not long after last night's game. I have been a big fan of Beeks since I saw him pitch when a Pawtucket game was carried on NESN early in the season. I think he will be a successful major league pitcher but not a top of the rotation guy. With Tampa's history of developing pitchers, it will be a good trade for them. If Eovaldi helps the Sox to win the WS, it will be a good trade for the Sox. There also is the possibility that he could be signed to a multi-year contract, which would make it a big win. The farm system is not good now. The loss of Beeks will not make it substantially worse. However, in the lower minors there are a number of promising players. In three years the system will be stronger, not weaker, especially since there will be two more drafts and international signing periods. I think the major league team will continue to compete for the division lead for years to come. Because this is such a special year that might not be repeated for a generation, team management should do everything possible to ensure that specialness carries through the WS.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 25, 2018 12:50:22 GMT -5
I'm not so sure about that. Maybe more cheap teams will (because of cheap rookie status deals protecting them), but I don't see a lot team going away from traditional baseball for a while. That's my opinion on that and I'll leave it at that. I mean you've watched the playoffs in recent years right? How does this relate to 162 game season?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 25, 2018 12:50:39 GMT -5
I guess my question for the people who don't like this trade is, how good do you actually think Beeks is going to end up being, and why do you think that?
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Post by manfred on Jul 25, 2018 12:56:39 GMT -5
Dombrowski, destroyer of farm systems. God this team will be awful in 3 years. This is silly. Is Jalen Beeks going to be a difference maker in 2021? This seems like just the sort of trade to make. Bigger picture: if they pay up, the Sox will have a core of Betts, Beni, X, Devers... they won’t be awful. If they keep Martinez and Sale, they are aleays going to be a threat. The meme of Dombrowski destroying the system is overblown. Thus far, no one has bitten their butts. Manny Margot? Moncada? We’ll see. I know they are still very young, but I am happy having Kimbrel and Sale whatever may come in the future. Far happier than being mediocre and following AAA closely all season. People can poopoo the Pomeranz trade, but Pom was their 2nd best pitcher last year, and Anderson Espinosa hasn’t pitched since 2016. Will he be a difference maker in 2021? The Sox are a big market team. That means play for this year, and let 2021 take care of itself.
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Post by borisman on Jul 25, 2018 13:03:02 GMT -5
Welp, don't love that. Seriously, someone talk me into this. How are 10 Nathan Eovaldi starts worth six-plus years of Jalen Beeks? We didn't have a spot for Beeks as we got too many lefties in the rotation as it is.Edit: You know Dave, it's win now if you have a shot, farm system be damned. Maybe he sees it as a 2 year window as some others do.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 25, 2018 13:06:52 GMT -5
I guess my question for the people who don't like this trade is, how good do you actually think Beeks is going to end up being, and why do you think that? Either an okay mid-rotation starter, or an excellent reliever - something along the lines of BJ Ryan's best seasons. A lefty who is absolute death on other lefties and has a fastball/cutter pitch combo that is really hard on righties. If we really are moving into an era where pitchers are allowed to work in more hybrid 2-3 inning roles, I honestly think he could shine. His control is a lot better than most guys with his profile, and the cutter is generating a ton of swings and misses for him. I'd be more okay with this trade if Eovaldi was signed for 2019, so if the acquisition gives them an inside track then I feel better about it. If Cora is going to keep him on a short leash, limiting him to twice through the order, I'd feel better about that too. Eovaldi's lack of consistency, his historic lack of a traditional starter's durability, and the fact that it's another trade for a rental are what is worrisome to me.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 25, 2018 13:10:05 GMT -5
I also wonder about the Bannister effect. Can he unlock anything with Eovaldi? Will that encourage him to be more willing to sign beyond this year? It certainly seems like money better spent than resigning Pomeranz.
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