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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 2, 2018 14:09:11 GMT -5
With Judge and Sanchez out I wouldn't mind if Stanton is walked every single at bat. I’d rather they just strike him out 75% of his at bats.
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Post by p23w on Aug 2, 2018 14:12:40 GMT -5
Beat the Fatman.
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Post by wildsox on Aug 2, 2018 14:24:18 GMT -5
No Bogey tonight. But Swihart gets the start. I love it. Cora is gaining trust.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 2, 2018 14:42:23 GMT -5
lineup looks a lot thinner without Xander and Devers though. And Holt at SS isn't ideal, so hopefully Xander's back by game 2 or 3 at worst.
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Post by ivor on Aug 2, 2018 15:06:43 GMT -5
As a starter, Johnson has a 1.80ERA but has put up a FIP of 4.06, thats a massive difference. I'm not really well-versed in statistics like FIP etc, could anyone give me a run down on how this is such a big difference? Is he just getting really lucky and our defence is picking him up?
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 2, 2018 15:14:31 GMT -5
Bummed we missed Gray. But he did his job... losing to the Orioles in what had to be this season’s premier unpitcher’s duel. At least the Yankees also miss Pomeranz. Yeah, but they're not missing their favorite pitcher, Price.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 2, 2018 15:41:54 GMT -5
I am perhaps illogically more optimistic about Sunday then tonight. CC has owned us and I have a good feeling about Price turning it around for some reason.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,390
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Post by radiohix on Aug 2, 2018 15:43:59 GMT -5
Lots of good news on the injury front my boyz!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 2, 2018 15:53:49 GMT -5
Forget a split.......I am with this guy.
I wont be happy with less that 3 out of 4
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 2, 2018 16:03:56 GMT -5
As a starter, Johnson has a 1.80ERA but has put up a FIP of 4.06, thats a massive difference. I'm not really well-versed in statistics like FIP etc, could anyone give me a run down on how this is such a big difference? Is he just getting really lucky and our defence is picking him up? His Statcast xwOBA (expected weighted OBA) strongly indicates that he's genuinely limited hard contact this year without recourse to luck.
He was very good his first 5 games as a reliever, .200 / .310 / .320, including two outings vs. NY and 1 vs. Oak. He got destroyed in his next 5, .419 / .438 / .806 (the one good outing was against the Yankees).
After that, .269 / .300 / .299 in 10 games.
You really want a narrative to explain that, since it seems too extreme to be luck, and the obvious one is that they gave him extra time to warm up for the first 5 relief appearances of his professional career (after 110 starts) and then started giving him less when it looked like he had it working ... and then made some sort of effective correction when it backfired. I think the first element of this story is almost certainly true and the other two follow very believably. So those five awful games should have no predictive power, and will forever distort his projections.
(incidentally, he's:
.243 / .315 / .348 as a starter .293 / .336 / .431 as a reliever.)
Statcast has him allowing a .255 BA instead of the actual .269. It has him with a .402 SA instead of his actual .391. Overall, he's allowed a .314 wOBA, but Statcast says it should be .309, which I tweak to .310 with some adjustments. (All the Statcast expected figures are adjusted for the average MLB difference between actual and adjusted.)
So he's been a bit unlucky.
Now, he faced 32 batters in that awful stretch and allowed a .522 wOBA. Outside that stretch (using simple algebra), he's allowed .285. It's possible he's been lucky for most of the season and had slightly more than offsetting bad luck in the five games he was hammered, so you might want to bump up the resulting .281 figure for how well he's really pitched this year. You also want to boost it a bit because it's easier to pitch in relief. And his sample size is still small and should be regressed to the mean at least a bit.
And you really want to make the last two adjustments and maybe add a smidgen for the first, because .281 would tie him for 16th out of 159 pitchers with a minimum 250 batters faced.
With Clayton Kershaw.
As it is, he just qualifies with 258 TBF, and with the bad games he ranks 67th.
(I'm not doing my tweaks to anyone else in those rankings, so it's give or take a bit.)
He's been far enough above MLB average in a big enough sample size, even with the 5 games I believe are not representative or predictive, that a strong case can be made for him as a legit #3 starter. (Which is an argument I made in ST, BTW.)
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 2, 2018 16:09:06 GMT -5
I would love to see them bunt on CC and make him field his position. He doesn't like to be bunt on and anything to get him off his game.
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Post by h11233 on Aug 2, 2018 16:12:37 GMT -5
This series has the feel of playoff baseball... I've been really anticipating it since the ASB. It's too bad both teams aren't full strength. Crushing them with a healthy Judge would just be that much sweeter.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 2, 2018 16:40:01 GMT -5
Sabathia is 18-13 against us, which actually surprised me a bit because I feel like we always (or at least to always) beat up on him. I think it's just some of the big games in the past that really stick out and leave that impression.
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Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2018 17:00:10 GMT -5
I would love to see them bunt on CC and make him field his position. He doesn't like to be bunt on and anything to get him off his game. I would too but... can anyone on the team bunt?
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Post by cba82 on Aug 2, 2018 17:10:11 GMT -5
I would love to see them bunt on CC and make him field his position. He doesn't like to be bunt on and anything to get him off his game. I would too but... can anyone on the team bunt? Kinsler
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 2, 2018 17:10:54 GMT -5
I would love to see them bunt on CC and make him field his position. He doesn't like to be bunt on and anything to get him off his game. I would too but... can anyone on the team bunt? Of course they are major league players....
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 2, 2018 17:16:05 GMT -5
I have ZERO faith in Price vs the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. That's to big a stage for him. I'll be shocked if he makes it to the 5th inning.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2018 17:16:36 GMT -5
I hope Sabathia has to face the Red Sox towards the end of the season after the Red Sox clinch and the Red Sox just bunt every at bat until they take him out.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2018 17:17:17 GMT -5
I have ZERO faith in Price vs the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. That's to big a stage for him. I'll be shocked if he makes it to the 5th inning. I have absolute faith in JBJ that he'll bail Price out over and over again.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 2, 2018 18:05:22 GMT -5
Lots of good news on the injury front my boyz! So Sale dodges the Yankees it appears
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Aug 2, 2018 18:15:16 GMT -5
Well, that was a quick night.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 2, 2018 18:15:44 GMT -5
perhaps Brian Johnson is not a #3 starter
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,321
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Post by cutz on Aug 2, 2018 18:15:46 GMT -5
Not surprised!
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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2018 18:16:37 GMT -5
Good Lord.
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Post by wildsox on Aug 2, 2018 18:17:08 GMT -5
Bogaerts likely makes that play to leadoff the inning. It changes the way the whole inning turns out.
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