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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 6, 2013 9:22:55 GMT -5
It's going to be interesting how the roster shakes out. The bullpen has a chance to be a huge strength and they should play to that. There seems to be a numbers crunch there with 2 too many arms (3 if you count Mortenson, but he's a notch below the others IMO; I'm including Bard).
Looks like a 4 man bench which is somewhat restrictive. Right now SP.com is predicting Sweeney but I think maybe Nava is better to platoon a bit with Gomes. Victorino becomes very important as a backup CF. Ciriaco is a super sub, thus a great fit and Ross is the best backup one could hope for behind the dish. That leaves one spot. I don't think Overbay is the ideal choice as he's strictly a backup first baseman and he doesn't hit any longer so comparing him to someone who can hit for the spot doesn't matter. Stay tuned.
Injuries have a way to fixing a numbers crunch like there currently is in the Sox pen so I'd wait things out. That's not fun to talk about though. Molts of rumors surrounding Bailey. They can't and won't trade him until he builds some value and I don't think that can happen until mid season unless there is a desperate team. Bottom line is I'm keeping him. The only guys with an option are Tazawa and Bard, but they could also be the best of the group, especially Junichi. I don't know how it will play out but I don't want to see them dump Moralez, Aceves or Bailey for little in return just to clear space. I'd rather option Tazawa and Bard to start the year.
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Post by jmei on Feb 6, 2013 10:48:39 GMT -5
Aceves is clearly the other odd man out in the bullpen (assuming Bard is optioned and Mortensen is DFAed), right? Yeah, he pitched a lot of innings and didn't give up many runs in 2011, but it was mostly smoke and mirrors (his peripherals were pretty mediocre), and regression hit hard in 2012. We're talking about a pitcher with a career 7.09 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 38% GB, 4.30 xFIP as a reliever who is a year away from free agency and has complained multiple times about his role. Of course, all it takes is one injury to make Aceves a vital piece of the bullpen or make another team desperate enough to trade for him, but I think there's a relatively clear pecking order and Aceves is towards the tail end of it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 6, 2013 11:06:52 GMT -5
I think a lot depends on what else happens in the bullpen. Things seem to be shaping up for a trade from there, be it Bailey or Morales, who both will reportedly have a lot of eyes on them, or someone else like Aceves himself.
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Post by sbones13 on Feb 6, 2013 11:12:58 GMT -5
I'm really hoping they dump Aceves any way possible. I totally realize chemistry and all those other magical qualities are overrated by the old school guys. That said, has there ever been a more subversive guy on the team than this guy? Well, since Carl Everett, I guess. Bobby V was a total clown, but he WAS the manager of the team. I've had bosses I've hated, too. It doesn't mean it's OK to treat them like a piece of sh#t.
For that matter, I'm glad Tuck is gone too. I can't believe it's OK for the BULLPEN coach to refuse to communicate with the manager. And again, it doesn't really matter who was right.
All that said, I get it, the players rule. To a point. When Manny or Pedro do this stuff you kind of have to deal with it. But Gary Tuck and Alfredo Aceves? Come on.
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Post by elguapo on Feb 6, 2013 11:18:22 GMT -5
I would bet on some more acquisitions / invites to compete for bench & bullpen slots.
They don't have a good LHH 1B/OF option (unless they really think Nava can play first) and I'm sure there are some out there. And I'm still wishing on Rich Hill.
I'm not sure anyone in the bullpen is safe, though some are more likely to stick around for various reasons - I guess they'll play it by ear.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 6, 2013 13:48:26 GMT -5
I think a lot depends on what else happens in the bullpen. Things seem to be shaping up for a trade from there, be it Bailey or Morales, who both will reportedly have a lot of eyes on them, or someone else like Aceves himself. Bailey and Morales do seem to have eyes on them, but I cannot imagine a team giving up something that I would think is an acceptable return for what they could bring. To me they are in the position of their worth to this team far exceeding what someone would be willing to deal for them. They have way too high of a ceiling to trade for a second rate prospect or roster filler and I can't justify a reason for another team giving up more than that. Maybe I'm off base, but I'll be bullshit if either of those guys is traded for little return. A backup 1b/Of doesn't cut it for me. |
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Post by larrycook on Feb 6, 2013 13:57:26 GMT -5
I don't think Overbay is the ideal choice as he's strictly a backup first baseman and he doesn't hit any longer so comparing him to someone who can hit for the spot doesn't matter. Stay tuned. Is Overbay really an upgrade over Gomez? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 6, 2013 14:02:55 GMT -5
I don't think Overbay is the ideal choice as he's strictly a backup first baseman and he doesn't hit any longer so comparing him to someone who can hit for the spot doesn't matter. Stay tuned. Is Overbay really an upgrade over Gomez? We don't know that yet. He hit well a couple years ago and can play solid D. Obviously, I'm not high on Overbay, but it's a minor league deal and I'm pretty positive they aren't going to be too concerned about his "out" clause. If he doesn't show well in ST, they'll let him walk no problem. It's a no risk signing. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 9, 2013 13:01:07 GMT -5
I'm really hoping they dump Aceves any way possible. I totally realize chemistry and all those other magical qualities are overrated by the old school guys. That said, has there ever been a more subversive guy on the team than this guy? Well, since Carl Everett, I guess. Bobby V was a total clown, but he WAS the manager of the team. I've had bosses I've hated, too. It doesn't mean it's OK to treat them like a piece of sh#t. For that matter, I'm glad Tuck is gone too. I can't believe it's OK for the BULLPEN coach to refuse to communicate with the manager. And again, it doesn't really matter who was right. All that said, I get it, the players rule. To a point. When Manny or Pedro do this stuff you kind of have to deal with it. But Gary Tuck and Alfredo Aceves? Come on. From everything I have read, Aceves is well respected in the clubhouse by his peers. Sure, he is competitive and has fire in his belly, sometimes to his detriment. But he has a great arm and good stuff. A change of managers and coaches should benefit him and get the most out of his abilities. As for Tuck, well, he wasn't the only member of the coaching staff who didn't fit well with Bobby V. Tim Bogar was in the shadows as well, and I believe, was feeding priviledged information to the FO. Tuck had a good reputation in working with catchers. I hope Lavangy has equal success. |
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Post by rangoon82 on Feb 11, 2013 13:28:22 GMT -5
I'd bet Daniel Bard will earn a spot on this team out of ST. I think being stretched out as a starter messed him and his arm up and after a winter of rest he will be ready to go. He had a 1 WHIP in 2010, a sub1 WHIP in 2011, and is 27 y/o. I think generally you don't just lose that at his age. I'd be interested to hear others' opinions.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 11, 2013 19:59:05 GMT -5
I can see Bard having a great spring and still going down just because he has options. It's a 7 man pen and there are 10 guys competing. Bard and Tazawa coud be the two best but they are he two with options. Mortenson will be waived if everyone else is heathy and productive.
The seven without options who I would start the year with if all were performing in spring are:
Hanrahan
Bailey
Koji
Miller
Moralez
Breslow
Aceves
I love Bard and Tazawa but I use those options to keep the depth. I don't trade any of them.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 11, 2013 20:11:36 GMT -5
I usually agree that the players with options will get sent down to preserve depth, but I think it will be different with Bard. Not only did he struggle as a starter last year - he also got killed back in the bullpen in Pawtucket. If Bard is back to his old dominant self in spring training, my gut says the Sox give him a spot on the 25-man roster. I could be wrong and I do know the Red Sox have a precedent of preserving depth at the expense of the optimal bullpen, but I don't think the Red Sox would want to take a chance that he goes into a mental funk after being sent down.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 11, 2013 20:19:34 GMT -5
I think you may be right but I think it'd be a bad move. If he's that fragile, then he needs to not be part of the team all together. It's just a matter of time before he loses it.
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 11, 2013 20:23:47 GMT -5
I can see Bard having a great spring and still going down just because he has options. It's a 7 man pen and there are 10 guys competing. Bard and Tazawa coud be the two best but they are he two with options. Mortenson will be waived if everyone else is heathy and productive. The seven without options who I would start the year with if all were performing in spring are: Hanrahan Bailey Koji Miller Moralez Breslow Aceves I love Bard and Tazawa but I use those options to keep the depth. I don't trade any of them. Wins in April matter, especially after last season. If Tazawa looks the same this spring as he did at the end of last season, he should not go down for depth DItto for a 2010 incarnation of Bard, although I am skeptical of that right away. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 11, 2013 20:43:19 GMT -5
They most certainly do, tats why I'd only do it if the other Gus were pitching well. Bailey and Koji pitching well would be two of the best setup men in baseball. In that scenario, Tazawa in AAA shouldn't cost them games. I'd be more concerned with losing more games later due to not having any real depth. It's always the hardest thing to figure, but you can never ave too much pitching. It's not worth losing a valuable arm for ext to nothing.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 11, 2013 20:43:55 GMT -5
I also value bullpen arms a lot more than almost anyone else.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 11, 2013 21:37:17 GMT -5
I can't remember where I heard this, and it sounds cliche, but it's applicable here: "it's important to manage your options, but not let your options manage you."
Having Tazawa in the minor leagues because Mortensen and Aceves are out of options is letting your options manage you. Tazawa was the best pitcher on the team last year, both in stuff and results.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 11, 2013 23:18:10 GMT -5
I can't remember where I heard this, and it sounds cliche, but it's applicable here: "it's important to manage your options, but not let your options manage you." Having Tazawa in the minor leagues because Mortensen and Aceves are out of options is letting your options manage you. Tazawa was the best pitcher on the team last year, both in stuff and results. Yes. I think the team is willing to deal the extra bullpen arms and has made that clear to other teams. There are reports that other teams scouts will be closely watching the Red Sox this spring. I think there is a good chance that one bull pen arm gets traded, and only a couple of the guys would shock me if they were traded. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 12, 2013 9:23:08 GMT -5
I can't remember where I heard this, and it sounds cliche, but it's applicable here: "it's important to manage your options, but not let your options manage you." Having Tazawa in the minor leagues because Mortensen and Aceves are out of options is letting your options manage you. Tazawa was the best pitcher on the team last year, both in stuff and results. I completely agree in principle, but I don't see Tazawa and Aceves as interchangeable parts. Mortensen isn't even in the discussion. I cut him no question. Aceves is a swing an, Tazawa isn't so you can really replace one with the other. Bailey, Koji, Bard and Hanrahan are the guys with the same role as Tazawa, bard has options too so it doesn't matter. If it comes down to trading Bailey who's pitching well to add Tazawa or sending Tazawa down then I keep Bailey. I think this team needs two guys like Moralez and Aceves early to not wear out the short inning guys. Our starters don't go deep and early in the year starters throw fewer innings. Playing with fire, limiting your depth. This isn't the normal bullpen construction. Most years it's " get a bunch of guys and let it sort itself out". They have legit guys back there, not Bobby Jenks or Atchison or an old Oki or an unproven Miller, etc. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 12, 2013 9:24:17 GMT -5
I think it's nearly certain that Bard will start the year in Pawtucket, even if he looks "back" in ST, but he could be promoted quickly should a trade open a spot.
If they do think that Bard has fixed his mechanics, it would make someone like Bailey expendable.
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Post by raftsox on Feb 12, 2013 10:08:17 GMT -5
I think it's nearly certain that Bard will start the year in Pawtucket, even if he looks "back" in ST, but he could be promoted quickly should a trade open a spot. If they do think that Bard has fixed his mechanics, it would make someone like Bailey expendable. I think this is the case. It's easy to tell guys like Tazawa and Bard: "You'll be back up soon, the roster for the first several weeks is still under construction. We value you and have every intention of having you in the bigs for most of the season. Please be patient, blah blah blah." |
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Post by bluechip on Feb 12, 2013 11:01:22 GMT -5
If it comes down to trading Bailey who's pitching well to add Tazawa or sending Tazawa down then I keep Bailey. I think it really depends on the return. Bailey probably has the most value on the trade market, so if some team gets desperate because its "proven closer" get's hurt, then I am favoring of negotiating. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 13, 2013 10:22:49 GMT -5
What do you think bailey could command come April 1if he looks good in the Spring? Bailey historically only throws very little during the spring so it may be are for him to build value prior to July 31. What would you trade him for if you were the Sox that's worth while?
No way I'd take a second rate prospect package of guys like Workman and Alex Wilson or a utility guy like Holt.
I'd rather go long term high risk with a package surrounding 3 guys like Kukuk, Montas and Margot as an example.
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