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8/24-8/26 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2018 19:19:25 GMT -5
Its almost like Devers, Sale, and ERod are very important pieces of this team. This team is on pace for 110 wins or whatever, and they currently have a starting rotation of Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Johnson, and Velasquez. That's just not sustainable. Having said that, they are obviously going to come back and win this game.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 25, 2018 19:22:36 GMT -5
Kinsler pops everything up
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2018 19:23:59 GMT -5
Top 5 negative WPAs in this game: Moreland, Pearce, Leon, Betts, Nunez. Brasier is 6th worst.
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Post by station13 on Aug 25, 2018 19:28:22 GMT -5
Nice of Hembree passing that HR torch to Workman. It was a heavy burden.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 25, 2018 19:36:14 GMT -5
Its almost like Devers, Sale, and ERod are very important pieces of this team. This team is on pace for 110 wins or whatever, and they currently have a starting rotation of Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Johnson, and Velasquez. That's just not sustainable. Having said that, they are obviously going to come back and win this game. Don't think it's quite as obvious to me. The Sox haven't been swept in any series yet and they're overdue and TB is a handful - the Yankees can vouch for that. TB is hot and playing like a playoff team. I was hoping they'd win today because Snell versus Eovaldi is not a matchup you should feel overconfident in. And to make matters worse, the Orioles are the Orioles and the Yankees could creep to within 5.5 games by the time the Sox get home to face Miami, which is kind of rough, given that the Sox had upped their lead to 9.5 when they finished off Cleveland, which is only a few days ago. I think once Miami comes to Fenway the Sox will start to right the ship, but I think this weekend is shaping up to be a lost weekend. And it's not surprising. It's kind of overdue. I mean, they hadn't lost a series in about 15 series, which is kind of ridiculous.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 25, 2018 19:45:02 GMT -5
this has been one of the worst games to watch all year
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Post by station13 on Aug 25, 2018 19:46:22 GMT -5
very soon milk carton will have Kimbrel grainy photos all over it.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 25, 2018 19:54:58 GMT -5
we lost the Thornburg trade
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2018 19:57:34 GMT -5
Feels like no one in this bullpen can throw a clean inning right now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2018 19:58:46 GMT -5
Sometimes it’s hard to believe the Red Sox are the highest scoring team in baseball.
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Post by wildsox on Aug 25, 2018 20:08:14 GMT -5
What a terrible offensive performance. And we get to face Snell tomorrow
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 25, 2018 20:09:00 GMT -5
we lost the Thornburg trade to put it in more perspective, based on Shaw's projections the rest of the way, Brewers are going to get about 7 fWAR out of just his first two seasons there, and looks like over 30 homers both years. We got an injured and now ineffective Thornburg stuck at 0 fWAR in contributions. Oh yea, and we also threw other guys into that deal for some reason. yikes DD
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2018 20:26:35 GMT -5
Wow - a rare snoozer. The good - JDM with two hits and now the AL batting leader.
Everything else - not so good. We've hit a speed bump - the team looks pretty spent.
Baseball is a weird game.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 25, 2018 21:16:24 GMT -5
I agree. The team looks exhausted. If Mookie isn't hitting, it's an entirely different look. Moreland is a .250 hitter who is easy to roll-over and double up. If you want to play him, hit him 7th. Maybe Chavis can come on next year but Mookie & J.D. have skewered our team stats giving a false sense of team offensive prowess.
Because he's a little guy, I have greater concern for Mookie being rested.
The Yanks have knocked 3 games off our lead and odds are maybe 4 given tomorrow's matchups. Given the number of games left with them, the race could get pretty close near the wire.
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Post by wildsox on Aug 25, 2018 21:29:31 GMT -5
I agree. The team looks exhausted. If Mookie isn't hitting, it's an entirely different look. Moreland is a .250 hitter who is easy to roll-over and double up. If you want to play him, hit him 7th. Maybe Chavis can come on next year but Mookie & J.D. have skewered our team stats giving a false sense of team offensive prowess. Because he's a little guy, I have greater concern for Mookie being rested. The Yanks have knocked 3 games off our lead and odds are maybe 4 given tomorrow's matchups. Given the number of games left with them, the race could get pretty close near the wire. They do look exhausted but they had 2 days off last week and have been mostly at home so this shouldn’t be the case.
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Post by manfred on Aug 25, 2018 22:01:54 GMT -5
we lost the Thornburg trade to put it in more perspective, based on Shaw's projections the rest of the way, Brewers are going to get about 7 fWAR out of just his first two seasons there, and looks like over 30 homers both years. We got an injured and now ineffective Thornburg stuck at 0 fWAR in contributions. Oh yea, and we also threw other guys into that deal for some reason. yikes DD In fairness, Thornburg had just had a sick year, and Shaw was a middling prospect who had surprised for half a season. I don’t think the trade looked terrible at the time.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 25, 2018 22:09:07 GMT -5
Top 5 negative WPAs in this game: Moreland, Pearce, Leon, Betts, Nunez. Brasier is 6th worst. Its almost as if Devers phantom DL stint was a bad idea. If we lose tomorrow and the Yankees win they’ll have picked up 4.5 games in a week.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 25, 2018 23:44:49 GMT -5
Pack it in boys. What can we get for Sale on waivers?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2018 4:37:36 GMT -5
to put it in more perspective, based on Shaw's projections the rest of the way, Brewers are going to get about 7 fWAR out of just his first two seasons there, and looks like over 30 homers both years. We got an injured and now ineffective Thornburg stuck at 0 fWAR in contributions. Oh yea, and we also threw other guys into that deal for some reason. yikes DD In fairness, Thornburg had just had a sick year, and Shaw was a middling prospect who had surprised for half a season. I don’t think the trade looked terrible at the time. He surprised you. Not the folks here who noted that he had been among the handful of leaders in exit velocity in the AFL. Nor is his progress in Milwaukee a surprise, since streaky players always have upside -- they just have to shorten their slumps (the only thing Carlos Pena did to turn his career around, something I called in advance and cited here when arguing that Shaw might do the same thing).
They traded an above-average MLB starting 3B with 5 years of control for a setup reliever with 3 years of control. I left out the adjective describing how good Thornburg had been because the best set-up reliever in the world can't even that out.
However, it is true that Shaw was a spare part with no evident role --oh, wait, no, actually he was the only alternative to Sandoval and they got killed at 3B until Devers came up. Admittedly, however, they desperately needed another reliever -- oh, wait, no, he missed the entire year and the bullpen led all of MLB in WPA by 2.17 wins, so that they would have had the best bullpen even with Kimbrel being great rather than ridiculous.
How are they doing this year without his contribution?
However, it is true that the extra players we got to make up the obvious WAR gap in the basic trade are mollifying the awfulness ... oh, wait, no.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 26, 2018 6:53:16 GMT -5
In fairness, Thornburg had just had a sick year, and Shaw was a middling prospect who had surprised for half a season. I don’t think the trade looked terrible at the time. He surprised you. Not the folks here who noted that he had been among the handful of leaders in exit velocity in the AFL. Nor is his progress in Milwaukee a surprise, since streaky players always have upside -- they just have to shorten their slumps (the only thing Carlos Pena did to turn his career around, something I called in advance and cited here when arguing that Shaw might do the same thing).
They traded an above-average MLB starting 3B with 5 years of control for a setup reliever with 3 years of control. I left out the adjective describing how good Thornburg had been because the best set-up reliever in the world can't even that out. However, it is true that Shaw was a spare part with no evident role --oh, wait, no, actually he was the only alternative to Sandoval and they got killed at 3B until Devers came up. Admittedly, however, they desperately needed another reliever -- oh, wait, no, he missed the entire year and the bullpen led all of MLB in WPA by 2.17 wins, so that they would have had the best bullpen even with Kimbrel being great rather than ridiculous.
How are they doing this year without his contribution? However, it is true that the extra players we got to make up the obvious WAR gap in the basic trade are mollifying the awfulness ... oh, wait, no. Everything you're saying is correct, but you are leaving out one big thing. Travis Shaw in 2016 was bad enough by September 2016 that they were auditioning Moncada for the 3b job and that by October 2016 Brock Holt was the Red Sox 3b in the playoffs. Shaw had stopped hitting altogether in the 2nd half. Basically Dombrowski gave up on him. Others around him believed Shaw would overcome his useless horrendous second half of 2016 and were proven right. Maybe if Shaw was still here Devers wouldn't be. Maybe Dombrowski knew that Devers would be coming along pretty fast. Don't know. Those last two sentences are total speculation. I don't know if the Sox discover that Devers in August of 2017 was major league ready if Shaw was here. Maybe they do anyways. Probably they don't. Say Devers got that full developmental year last year and was knocking on the door. If Devers wasn't dealt, then perhaps 2018 has Shaw moving to 1b with Devers at 3b and Mitch Moreland is never re-signed. They are a better team, but you'd be comparing Shaw to Moreland at this point. Moreland costs more (but not a ton) and is inferior to Shaw, but maybe Thornburg would make up for some of that Moreland/Shaw difference filling a role that the Sox definitely could use filling for. A reliable reliever to go in tandem with Barnes in Kimbrel like Milwaukee Thornburg would be a huge asset to the 2018 Red Sox - especially in the playoffs. It's something they're missing but have managed to get around anyways, at least up through now anyways. The problem is that Thornburg got hurt and you're not getting any value there (this year is a recovery type year for him), the kind Thornburg could generate as a dominant 8th inning reliever, and that was something the Sox didn't foresee. Obviously it was still an awful deal, but that's if you knew that Shaw would bounce back instead of this 2015 half season and first half of 2016 being a flash in the pan and if you knew that Thornburg would be useless until at least 2019 if ever. A lot of people did know that so kudos to them. When I was watching Moncada and then Holt man 3b instead of Shaw who couldn't buy a hit (and certainly didn't do it when the 2016 post-season was on the line as he made that last out down a run with runners on), I didn't know that.
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Post by manfred on Aug 26, 2018 7:48:52 GMT -5
In fairness, Thornburg had just had a sick year, and Shaw was a middling prospect who had surprised for half a season. I don’t think the trade looked terrible at the time. He surprised you. Not the folks here who noted that he had been among the handful of leaders in exit velocity in the AFL. Nor is his progress in Milwaukee a surprise, since streaky players always have upside -- they just have to shorten their slumps (the only thing Carlos Pena did to turn his career around, something I called in advance and cited here when arguing that Shaw might do the same thing).
They traded an above-average MLB starting 3B with 5 years of control for a setup reliever with 3 years of control. I left out the adjective describing how good Thornburg had been because the best set-up reliever in the world can't even that out.
However, it is true that Shaw was a spare part with no evident role --oh, wait, no, actually he was the only alternative to Sandoval and they got killed at 3B until Devers came up. Admittedly, however, they desperately needed another reliever -- oh, wait, no, he missed the entire year and the bullpen led all of MLB in WPA by 2.17 wins, so that they would have had the best bullpen even with Kimbrel being great rather than ridiculous.
How are they doing this year without his contribution?
However, it is true that the extra players we got to make up the obvious WAR gap in the basic trade are mollifying the awfulness ... oh, wait, no. I just took a stroll down memory lane, looking at the old Tyler Thornburg thread from 2017. You are the last contributor, but (shocker) it appears to be snark. Nowhere there do you blast the trade. In fact, even as Thornburg is hurt and ultimately lost, the consensus is “who could have known.” The real objection is the inclusion of so many other guys. Then went back to the actual trade thread. You didn’t post at all. Huh. You sound like you knew in advance Shaw was great and Thornburg was bad. Why only say it now?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 26, 2018 8:33:43 GMT -5
There were a lot of people who were against the Shaw plus/Thornburg deal and they were proven correct so far and will probably ultimately be correct.
Some people complained about the quantity of what they gave up. I think Dubon will be a useful player eventually, but it's not a given he's more than a utility man. Don't know if Coco amounts to anything. Pennington has already retired.
So it is Shaw versus Thornburg.
And many people simply hated it because they hated giving up anything of value for a reliever. It was seen as the next Reddick for Bailey type of trade and people of that opinion have been proven correct unfortunately. And they'll balk just as loudly when the Sox make that next type of trade.
The school of thought is that you can find these relievers on the scrap heap easily enough.
I think the first part of that sentence is true and the second part isn't. Yes you can find a Brasier, but the Sox actually need more of him - as a functional bullpen relies of more than two or three guys. You can develop Barnes, but sometimes you still need to trade for a Kimbrel. A Koji doesn't always fall into your lap, so the Sox gambled that they found an under-control long-term relief asset for a guy that had lost his job due to being very ineffective for a prolonged stretch.
Dombrowski didn't agree or ignored his own scouts who believed that Shaw would make adjustments, so it was clearly a mistake, but the point I was originally trying to make is that the Shaw the Sox had was at his lowest point and not necessarily certain to bounce back. Others would simply say he sold low on Shaw and bought high on Thornburg and they look correct in saying so.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 26, 2018 9:28:20 GMT -5
and now we're running out this gross-looking lineup against Snell to try and avoid the sweep...
Betts RF, Núñez 3B, Bogaerts SS, Pearce DH, Moreland 1B, Kinsler 2B, Holt LF, León C, Bradley Jr. CF
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 26, 2018 9:35:04 GMT -5
and now we're running out this gross-looking lineup against Snell to try and avoid the sweep... Betts RF, Núñez 3B, Bogaerts SS, Pearce DH, Moreland 1B, Kinsler 2B, Holt LF, León C, Bradley Jr. CF I think they should have given Mookie the day off and stuck with Martinez today. Am glad to see Benintendi get the day off. I'm guessing Mookie gets the first game off against Miami? He could use it.
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Post by swingingbunt on Aug 26, 2018 9:37:32 GMT -5
Top 5 negative WPAs in this game: Moreland, Pearce, Leon, Betts, Nunez. Brasier is 6th worst. Its almost as if Devers phantom DL stint was a bad idea. If we lose tomorrow and the Yankees win they’ll have picked up 4.5 games in a week. I've seen this a few times, but why do you think Devers is on the phantom DL?
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