Post by telson13 on Aug 27, 2018 23:41:13 GMT -5
I was just looking at Zack Wheeler’s season, and it’s pretty impressive. He’s really come back well from TJ and his stuff is great, with very good results. His value isn’t sky-high given everything that’s happened but his ceiling is up there and he’s just turned 28. Got me thinking again about the Sox’s hired gun situation with Eovaldi, the imminent departure of Pomeranz, and the impending departure of Porcello.
Right now the 2019 rotation looks like Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, and ?. That’s a very strong front four, with a true ace, a former ace who looks like he’s still capable of 1a/2 performance (let’s pray he Verlanders), a 2/3 who has 1a upside, and a 2/3 with 1/1a upside who’s taken a step forward this year and is still just 25, meaning he’s at the leading edge of entering what historically is a pitcher’s prime. All have questions (Sale, durability; Price, age; Porcello, inconsistency; Rodriguez, injuries), but all are eminently capable of being outstanding pitchers.
Obviously we all yearn for a (reasonable) Sale extension. Let’s assume the Sox make that happen. Price isn’t going anywhere. Nor is Rodriguez, barring trade, for 3 years. Idk what sort of deal Eovaldi might command, but he’s an option. Trading Porcello might bring something back, but his deal is basically market, so it won’t be a big one.
I’d like to see the Sox make a move to fill that 5 slot with a younger pitcher who has some control years and upside. Wheeler fits the bill, and although he’s not my first choice, he’s a good one with a low salary and the possibility of an extension. His impending FA is going to limit what the Mets can get, They’re actually a team I would think would have interest in a player like Lin, given their atrocious SS situation. I’m not keen on trading him, and he’s probably not a headliner, but that matchup works. I could see them coveting Chavis or Dalbec too, given their offensive woes.
My top target is Jon Gray, but idk if the Rockies would sell low; they are facing Arenado’s FA after 2019, and Chavis or Dalbec might match up there as well. Chavis Especially would probably be a terrific fit for Coors given his hard contact and chance to benefit significantly from the Coors BABIP effect. It would take a lot more than Chavis alone, but trading Porcello and packaging the return, along with Chavis and some pitching (Lakins, Shawaryn) might be enough. Tough to say given Gray’s upside but injuries and inconsistent, even bizarre, results. German Marquez is another CO pitcher who I think makes a lot of sense for the Sox as a cost-controlled 5, and might not require a Porcello trade.
Another team with lots of pitching, but some holes, is Atlanta. Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, and Max Fried all seem capable of putting up at least back-end performance right now, with the potential to improve down the road. I’m not sure how well the Sox match up with the Braves (they have Riley on the verge of establishing himself at 3b, and Dansby Swanson vs Lin is probably a wash, although I wonder if Lin might actually be the superior offensive player), but none of those guys would come at exhorbitant cost.
I think the Sox are in a position where they’re best-served by making a value play at the back of their rotation, and acting early to replace Porcello either by trade or preparation for his FA. At least one cost-controlled starter with upside puts them in good position for the post-2019 turnover in terms of salary flexibility and continuity.
I’m curious if anyone else has thoughts on targets or how to approach the 5 spot this offseason. Obviously, Wright is still around too, and Johnson has looked viable at least in his limited time.
Right now the 2019 rotation looks like Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, and ?. That’s a very strong front four, with a true ace, a former ace who looks like he’s still capable of 1a/2 performance (let’s pray he Verlanders), a 2/3 who has 1a upside, and a 2/3 with 1/1a upside who’s taken a step forward this year and is still just 25, meaning he’s at the leading edge of entering what historically is a pitcher’s prime. All have questions (Sale, durability; Price, age; Porcello, inconsistency; Rodriguez, injuries), but all are eminently capable of being outstanding pitchers.
Obviously we all yearn for a (reasonable) Sale extension. Let’s assume the Sox make that happen. Price isn’t going anywhere. Nor is Rodriguez, barring trade, for 3 years. Idk what sort of deal Eovaldi might command, but he’s an option. Trading Porcello might bring something back, but his deal is basically market, so it won’t be a big one.
I’d like to see the Sox make a move to fill that 5 slot with a younger pitcher who has some control years and upside. Wheeler fits the bill, and although he’s not my first choice, he’s a good one with a low salary and the possibility of an extension. His impending FA is going to limit what the Mets can get, They’re actually a team I would think would have interest in a player like Lin, given their atrocious SS situation. I’m not keen on trading him, and he’s probably not a headliner, but that matchup works. I could see them coveting Chavis or Dalbec too, given their offensive woes.
My top target is Jon Gray, but idk if the Rockies would sell low; they are facing Arenado’s FA after 2019, and Chavis or Dalbec might match up there as well. Chavis Especially would probably be a terrific fit for Coors given his hard contact and chance to benefit significantly from the Coors BABIP effect. It would take a lot more than Chavis alone, but trading Porcello and packaging the return, along with Chavis and some pitching (Lakins, Shawaryn) might be enough. Tough to say given Gray’s upside but injuries and inconsistent, even bizarre, results. German Marquez is another CO pitcher who I think makes a lot of sense for the Sox as a cost-controlled 5, and might not require a Porcello trade.
Another team with lots of pitching, but some holes, is Atlanta. Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, and Max Fried all seem capable of putting up at least back-end performance right now, with the potential to improve down the road. I’m not sure how well the Sox match up with the Braves (they have Riley on the verge of establishing himself at 3b, and Dansby Swanson vs Lin is probably a wash, although I wonder if Lin might actually be the superior offensive player), but none of those guys would come at exhorbitant cost.
I think the Sox are in a position where they’re best-served by making a value play at the back of their rotation, and acting early to replace Porcello either by trade or preparation for his FA. At least one cost-controlled starter with upside puts them in good position for the post-2019 turnover in terms of salary flexibility and continuity.
I’m curious if anyone else has thoughts on targets or how to approach the 5 spot this offseason. Obviously, Wright is still around too, and Johnson has looked viable at least in his limited time.
