SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
8/30-9/2 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 2, 2018 22:01:13 GMT -5
Well the one good thing in a lopsided loss like this one is that the high leverage bullpen guys don't get used. So it's a day off for everybody. And Benintendi got a needed day off which is good.
It sucks to see such a great team play such mediocre baseball, but I tell myself it was bound to happen. The last two Septembers the Red Sox played great in September up until around Game 157 or so and then dropped dead thereafter.
Maybe they'll play lousy for now and better in the last week of the season and build momentum toward the playoffs.
Losing with Brian Johnson doesn't bother me much. He's iffy for the post-season roster anyways. Winning with a dominant E-Rod is more important to me than losing with Brian Johnson.
I think the magic with Johnson and Velazquez is wearing off finally. The Sox were lucky to have that magic for 5 months. Now they just need Sale, Price, E-Rod, and Porcello healthy and rested.
The offense has been hit or miss. Explosions followed by long stretches of being shutdown. I think that getting Devers back will actually help and maybe more Swihart down the stretch will help as well. I think once both Mookie and Benintendi are both clicking and JDM is back to bashing HRs the offense will be more consistent.
I'm curious to see what Wright and Lakins can do.
I think it's ridiculous that people are being "negative" if they are concerned about the bullpen's effectiveness. I don't see how it detracts from the enjoyment of a wonderful season.
Tomase had an interesting article about all of the relievers who have changed hands and his research - and I might be getting some details wrong here - had the additions as being positive overall. I think the average ERA of the acquired relievers is around 2.6. I know ERA isn't the end all for relievers, but it's a quick snapshot. The odds are that a guy like Soria or Kela Keone would have helped.
I look at it this way. The pen's depth is well above average with a bunch of interchangeable parts, which is an advantage most teams don't have so that when they fall behind it's tough to come back, because their low leverage guys get whacked.
The concern is that Barnes fades, Kimbrel's control has been terrible, Kelly has been Jekyl and Hyde, and Hembree is starting to fade.
You don't have to be 2013 Koji to improve upon that. At this point I worry when most of those guys trot out of the pen. Only Brasier has been a guy I'm not as nervous with. Doesn't mean the pen can't be great. I know no one guy guarantees anything, but I'll always want my odds improved.
And yeah, just about all pen are having these kinds of problems, but I don't care about all pens. Just the ones the Sox are going up against. Doesn't matter to me that the Orioles pen can't get anybody out. I worry about Houston, NYY, Cleveland, and Oakland's pens. Nothing sinks a post-season team faster than blowing a late inning lead.
|
|
|
Post by ponch73 on Sept 2, 2018 22:43:10 GMT -5
I worry about Houston, NYY, Cleveland, and Oakland's pens. Nothing sinks a post-season team faster than blowing a late inning lead. It's not a perfect analogy, but this year's team feels a lot like the 2004 version. Offensively, Mookie is Manny, JDM is Ortiz, Xander is Varitek, Beni is Damon, 2nd half JBJ is Millar, Moreland is Mueller, Kinsler is Bellhorn, hopefully 2nd half Nunez/Devers is Kapler/Nixon and Leon/Vazquez/Swihart is Pokey/Cabrera. The 2004 bats were better than this year's team, but I think the 2018 front-line starters of Sale, Price and ERod are better than Schilling, Pedro and Wakefield. And the 2018 team defense is substantially better, at least in the outfield. The back end of the 2004 bullpen of Williamson, Embree, Timlin, Foulke feels comparable to Barnes, Brasier, Kimbrel plus one additional guy (Eovaldi?). I'm hoping that a combination of tremendous grit and character, offensive firepower, top-flight starting pitching and hard-throwing/crafty bullpen arms leads to a comparable result.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 2, 2018 23:30:21 GMT -5
I worry about Houston, NYY, Cleveland, and Oakland's pens. Nothing sinks a post-season team faster than blowing a late inning lead. It's not a perfect analogy, but this year's team feels a lot like the 2004 version. Offensively, Mookie is Manny, JDM is Ortiz, Xander is Varitek, Beni is Damon, 2nd half JBJ is Millar, Moreland is Mueller, Kinsler is Bellhorn, hopefully 2nd half Nunez/Devers is Kapler/Nixon and Leon/Vazquez/Swihart is Pokey/Cabrera. The 2004 bats were better than this year's team, but I think the 2018 front-line starters of Sale, Price and ERod are better than Schilling, Pedro and Wakefield. And the 2018 team defense is substantially better, at least in the outfield. The back end of the 2004 bullpen of Williamson, Embree, Timlin, Foulke feels comparable to Barnes, Brasier, Kimbrel plus one additional guy (Eovaldi?). I'm hoping that a combination of tremendous grit and character, offensive firepower, top-flight starting pitching and hard-throwing/crafty bullpen arms leads to a comparable result. That 2004 team survived with Curtis Leskanic, one day from retirement, getting the most important outs in a must win game. That's not exactly ideal or how you draw it up. It definitely speaks to the randomness of things. I'd prefer to go by the odds and then hope for the best. Interesting comparisons between the two teams. It's funny, but I was thinking of this year's Yankees team as a late 70s Red Sox team and this year's Red Sox team as a late 70s Yankees team. This year's Yankees team is HR or nothing and is short in some pitching areas, while the Red Sox are more well balanced, which was kind of the opposite back then.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Sept 3, 2018 0:23:15 GMT -5
Tomase had an interesting article about all of the relievers who have changed hands and his research - and I might be getting some details wrong here - had the additions as being positive overall. I think the average ERA of the acquired relievers is around 2.6. I know ERA isn't the end all for relievers, but it's a quick snapshot. The odds are that a guy like Soria or Kela Keone would have helped. One last post-- why is this relevant? Oakland for example is a pitcher's park. Anybody who goes to the NL that's a lot different than our division, isn't it? Familia imo is a very over-rated pitcher but I think it would be perfect for him in Oakland. He can challenge hitters more in Oakland. I'm glad the sox didn't get him and his stats will probably be pretty good in Oakland. The problem with trying to evaluate these relievers and using era is not only ballparks and competition but if you have 4 guys to choose from, the guy you pick as the 6-8th inning guy in the playoffs is one bad pitch from going from a good reliever to a head case. More isn't necessarily better. How many good relievers did Houston have last year? How about in 2013 the Sox had a 3man crew.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2018 0:25:26 GMT -5
Hembree is like the 5th or 6th option out of the bullpen. What team in the majors in any year has someone better than Hembree as the 5th or 6th option? I swear, people won't be happy until we have 2013 Koji in every spot in the bullpen. It's also clear that most people don't watch other teams play or notice every time a relief pitcher gives up a run and instead assumes they never do. Or, you know, as crazy as it sounds, it's possible that people actually do watch and understand a lot about baseball and are of the opinion that postseason success comes down to a small number of relief pitchers, and not the depth that the Red Sox have had that has made overall bullpen numbers look better. And further, people could be of the opinion that we don't have anyone with any record of postseason success in those kinds of roles, Postseason track records are meaningless. That's easy to verify by looking at the record.
2.1 5 5 2 1, with 3 HRs. A 19.31 ERA.
Koji Uehara's post-season line before 2013.
There's a technical term for relievers who do not have a track record of inconsistency -- "legends." (See above, in 2013.)
Are you seriously telling us that you have Dombrowski's phone logs that indicate he made no effort to improve the bullpen at the deadline? You know you can e-mail Shaughnessy with that stuff. Furthermore, you're implying that Dombrowski's detailed explanation as to why they tried hard to trade for a reliever but didn't see a trade they could make that they liked was just hot air! Darn, that's a front page story. Get on it! The only person who does this who knows anything, Speier, does not agree with that.
The only thing you're being stupid about is your refusal to distinguish between intelligence and rationality. No one thinks you're stupid. That you're being irrational is a demonstrable fact. Here are some others:
-- No one traded at the deadline who had a price tag we could pay was or is anywhere near is good as Ryan Brasier has been. (The exception was Adam Cimber, the sort of young cost-controlled guy DDo was looking for, but we couldn't outbid the Indians.) So you're talking about upgrading Matt Barnes for the 7th.
-- Obtaining anyone would have meant trading Kelly, so you have to be really sure that what you're getting is also a substantial upgrade for the roster spot, not just the role.
-- Nobody who was traded who could have filled Barnes' role was having a better season than him. Nobody here who wanted relief help thought he was going to pumpkinize; they wanted to add a comparable arm to increase the number of options for the 7th and on. The jury is still out on that; in fact, the trial is still going on.
Now, if you look at the current stats, both Familia and Soria are having better seasons than Barnes. And it's absolutely true that the Sox bullpen had a relatively mediocre and disappointing August, in large part because Barnes had a really rough August.
It's perfectly appropriate to think this sucks, and to worry about the 7th, and hope that what Barnes did his last time out is a sign he's over his fatigue and/or that Kelly can fill this job as he earlier did, brilliantly.
What's not rational is to insist that a single bad month by a previously terrific 7th inning guy means that the bullpen has been a problem all year, when the fact is that it was the second best pen in baseball at the deadline. Nor is it rational to insist that the single bad month means you have a possibly fatal flaw. Even if the 7th inning remains mediocre, it's not rational to think that the only way to win a WS is to have three shutdown relievers when this was done precisely once in MLB history, by the Royals.
And your insistence that DDo was guilty of malpractice because he failed to be psychic about Matt Barnes' bad month, and failed to outbid the A's for Familia? And that Barnes' bad month means they have no hope of having a strong 7th inning guy for the post-season? That is exactly what your argument amounts to. And that's beyond irrational.
This is fun. Since July 28:
Player A: 16.0 IP, 67 TBF, 3.38 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, .071 HR/FB, .343 BABIP, .391 Win Probability Added, adjusted for leverage
Player B: 16.2 IP, 66 TBF, 1.08 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, .000 HR/FB, .341 BABIP, .390 WPA
Player A is Jeurys Familia. Player B is Joe Kelly.
(BTW, replacing Barnes with Familia from the date of the A's trade for him, 7/22, adds a whopping 1.1 wins. But if they'd been psychic enough to do that, they would have been psychic enough to just give Barnes' innings to Kelly, at no cost.)
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2018 0:49:57 GMT -5
**CLEARS THROAT, SLAMS THROUGH THE FRONT DOOR**
In the words of a famous rapper, allow me to reintroduce myself.
Guys, I'm the king of negative and I don't think you have to be so negative anymore for this bullpen.
For the first time all year, Pomeranz has finally done something to his mechanics to get his fastball in the low 90's again (consistently). That should get everyone giddy all over again with this guy.
Kelly has looked like more like Kelly at the start of the year. He's regularly touching 100 mph on his fastball. I wonder if he was one of the guys that was nicked up (like Dombrowski was talking about in his pregame talk).
Barnes has backtracked, but maybe a lot of rest in September will be helpful for him. Everyone knows what I think about Hembree, but I think he's not making the playoff roster if Pomeranz keeps operating in the low 90's with the fastball.
The 2 guys that Sox fans should be excited about in October in the bullpen are Brasier and Wright. Wright was dealing in the bullpen earlier in the year when healthy and Brasier has been money all year. Heck, add 3 guys to this mix if Kimbrel gets better with a ton of rest the past 2 to 3 weeks.
Cora has even talked about Wright being a valuable bridge guy in high leverage innings before he was activated. Going from Sale, to knuckleball, to Kimbrel is going to be nightmare for most teams.
If Wright is Wright, he alone could change the complexion of this bullpen with the emergence of Brasier.
Add in a strong Eduardo and Sale, with not a lot of mileage on their arms this season, and this could be setting up to be perfect for the Sox as they wrap up the division. Sale is throwing bullpens and Eduardo looked as good as ever in his last start.
The only concern should be Porcello as the number 4 starter in the playoffs. He's the one guy who hasn't missed a start or not been on the DL. I think the guy could be wearing down in time for the playoffs, same with Eovaldi coming off Tommy John surgery. I don't think the Sox will give Porcello much rope in the playoffs however (think twice through the order at best). Moreland is a concern as well, but not a huge hit if he doesn't come all the way back.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 3, 2018 8:33:36 GMT -5
**CLEARS THROAT, SLAMS THROUGH THE FRONT DOOR** In the words of a famous rapper, allow me to reintroduce myself. Guys, I'm the king of negative and I don't think you have to be so negative anymore for this bullpen. For the first time all year, Pomeranz has finally done something to his mechanics to get his fastball in the low 90's again (consistently). That should get everyone giddy all over again with this guy. Kelly has looked like more like Kelly at the start of the year. He's regularly touching 100 mph on his fastball. I wonder if he was one of the guys that was nicked up (like Dombrowski was talking about in his pregame talk). Barnes has backtracked, but maybe a lot of rest in September will be helpful for him. Everyone knows what I think about Hembree, but I think he's not making the playoff roster if Pomeranz keeps operating in the low 90's with the fastball. The 2 guys that Sox fans should be excited about in October in the bullpen are Brasier and Wright. Wright was dealing in the bullpen earlier in the year when healthy and Brasier has been money all year. Heck, add 3 guys to this mix if Kimbrel gets better with a ton of rest the past 2 to 3 weeks. Cora has even talked about Wright being a valuable bridge guy in high leverage innings before he was activated. Going from Sale, to knuckleball, to Kimbrel is going to be nightmare for most teams. If Wright is Wright, he alone could change the complexion of this bullpen with the emergence of Brasier. Add in a strong Eduardo and Sale, with not a lot of mileage on their arms this season, and this could be setting up to be perfect for the Sox as they wrap up the division. Sale is throwing bullpens and Eduardo looked as good as ever in his last start. The only concern should be Porcello as the number 4 starter in the playoffs. He's the one guy who hasn't missed a start or not been on the DL. I think the guy could be wearing down in time for the playoffs, same with Eovaldi coming off Tommy John surgery. I don't think the Sox will give Porcello much rope in the playoffs however (think twice through the order at best). Moreland is a concern as well, but not a huge hit if he doesn't come all the way back. Welcome back Pedro! Great re-entry post. Too old (or flatout uneducated as I really don't care for rap - I'm an old rock n roller) to know who the rapper is. The closest I got is, "Please allow me to introduce myself" and I got Mick Jagger who last time I checked isn't a rapper. I think it's quite possible to win with a shaky pen and it's quity possible that a shaky pen kills you. I've been a fan of the team long enough that I've never forgotten the fear of that 1986 bullpen. It was brutal and those last two games highlighted it. As was pointed out the Red Sox won in 2004 with a thin pen behind Foulke, Timlin, and Embree and were able to survive when the season was on the line with Leskanic. In 2013 the Sox won with a thin pen. They had a lockdown closer (Koji). I don't feel like Kimbrel is lockdown this year. Something is off. I don't think it's a slump. I think something is causing him to be kind of wild this year. That's kind of worrisome. Behind Koji, the Sox had Breslow and Tazawa, and Breslow got pooped out by the Series and the Sox were using Tazawa as a ROOGY. They were able to fill in with Workman who pitched well and starters - Doubront was forgotten but he was huge in the Series, and they had Dempster and people might forget that Lackey pitched a huge inning of relief that series. If Wright is the guy we hope he is, that can solve some issues. At this point I have no idea what to expect. Does he come out being as effective as he can be (I'm not expecting 12Ks in 5 innings like Sale or E-Rod) or is he hindered like Thornburg looks? I don't have a ton of trust in Kelly. Just hope he's Jekyl Kelly rather than Run and Hyde Kelly. Barnes is key. He needs his rest. I think there was a ripple effect with Sale and E-Rod being out. Too many Johnson and Velazquez/Pomeranz turns through the order and some bad Porcello starts, and as a result the starters weren't eating up innings and the pen got overworked and overexposed. If Sale, Price, Porcello, and E-Rod are all healthy, effective, and eat up innings, that limits exposure. And it's helpful that it's September so that when the Sox get pounded they can use AAA pitchers to fill out the game and leave the rest of the pen intact and rested. So yes, it can work. The pen can work if Wright is effective, Eovaldi gets straightened out and winds up in the pen, if Brasier can maintain what he's doing, if Barnes (and also Hembree)snaps back, and most importantly, if Kimbrel gets back to being Kimbrel, because if everything else works out and the pen gives him a 5-4 lead and he's walking that leadoff hitter.....Maalox time. On Labor Day, that's a lot of ifs. But it can certainly work. If the rotation gets straightened out hopefully that will trickle down to the bullpen.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 3, 2018 9:52:40 GMT -5
My glass half full post....
last two years our offense ran out of gas and couldn't reignite for the playoffs. Starting pitching also hiccuped.
With lots of games to go, and Cora as manager (much more relaxed and relates so much better than Farrell), I am confident the bats will find themselves - and with ERod back and Price and Sale coming soon, we can get our SP in playoff ready shape (barring no more injuries of course).
Let's get back to the winning ways today...
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Sept 3, 2018 9:54:00 GMT -5
Pedrofan you better stick around for Celtics season my dude, it's ALMOST TIME!
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 3, 2018 10:40:26 GMT -5
Yeah I mean the one unknown variable is the walks, it has a chance to haunt the Sox a couple of times during the playoffs, but it's really a unknown to say if it's going to hurt them truly. It might not even affect them at all. I think about that Kevin Millar walk in 2004 all the time, but I'm not sure how many times a walk has truly changed a outcome of a series like that before.
Maybe I'm a little premature about Wright and we should at least see if he's healthy, but Wright has one of the best pitches in baseball and it's a complete rhythm changer in the middle of a game. No other team in baseball has that dynamic.
All 5 of your best bullpen arms in Kelly, Kimbrel, Barnes, Wright, and Brasier are especially hard to hit. Kelly is the only guy to give up constant hard contact, Kimbrel is the only homerun prone guy. Pomeranz could also be added to this group (hard to hit) if he keeps shoving like in his last 2 appearances.
As of a month ago, I was with everyone here on the negativity and I don't blame you for not truly buying in, but Wright, Brasier, and Kimbrel is giving you reasons to want to have a little more faith in them. A month ago, these were unknowns. These guys are nasty though and I'd take them with any other three in baseball this year in the playoffs (in any bullpen) if they are all healthy a month from now. One injury to these 3 might change my mind completely however (hopefully it doesn't happen).
To Don's post, I'll be posting come Celtics time. I won't be in the offseason threads so much anymore. Maybe a couple posts to get my thoughts out there on what I think they will do and what the Sox should do. Maybe a few more posts when a deal goes down, but that's it. If I post more than 10 times a day here, I might get blamed for extinction of the Polar Bears in Antarctica on here lol (I kid, I kid).
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 3, 2018 11:05:15 GMT -5
Pedro....good to hear from you brother !!
|
|
|