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Post by Addam603 on Aug 31, 2018 15:13:05 GMT -5
I think with the massive jump Howlett just made on the SP rankings, it could be a good time to give him his own dedicated thread.
Howlett has had an amazing debut, one of the better ones in recent memory. Definitely has the chance to be a true diamond in the rough find.
That being said, that’s a massive jump for someone that has less than 150 ABs and none on a full season roster. I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve it. I’ve never seen him play and I’m sure there’s a damn good reason for the jump. Still a staggering rise in a short period of time.
Slightly related, it’s interesting that Howlett comes in one spot ahead of Nick Northcut. Northcut has been streaky and Howlett has been awesome, but has the difference been that stark to have Howlett ahead of Northcut. They have the same current grade, floor, and ceiling so the difference probablt is minor.
I think Howlett is going to be a good prospect for us. I don’t want to come off as knocking him down. Opinions?
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Post by ramireja on Aug 31, 2018 15:25:12 GMT -5
Also good timing for those who have Globe access and can check out this Speier article on Howlett. It seems as though scouts and coaches were unanimously impressed with him in the GCL which I think helps justify the jump up in rankings on top of his impressive numbers. I don't have time to dig up a bunch of old articles at the moment, but he certainly wasn't an unknown on the HS circuit. In fact, it sounds like he was more of a guy tracking like a top round pick as an underclassmen and then scuffled a little bit as a senior which may have dropped his stock. Even still, he was rated by Perfect Game as the #4 HS 3B in this draft class (albeit with the caveat that some projected 3B like Nolan Gorman were ranked as SS or at other positions). Regardless this isn't a case of finding a virtual unknown (think Mauricio Dubon) but drafting a HS guy with some pedigree who many probably thought would honor his commitment to FSU for whatever reason.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 31, 2018 15:51:02 GMT -5
Wondering if Steve, or sarasoxer got to see him more than just the cpl games i did this summer? Maybe more info on what they noticed about him?
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2018 19:00:59 GMT -5
Also good timing for those who have Globe access and can check out this Speier article on Howlett. It seems as though scouts and coaches were unanimously impressed with him in the GCL which I think helps justify the jump up in rankings on top of his impressive numbers. I don't have time to dig up a bunch of old articles at the moment, but he certainly wasn't an unknown on the HS circuit. In fact, it sounds like he was more of a guy tracking like a top round pick as an underclassmen and then scuffled a little bit as a senior which may have dropped his stock. Even still, he was rated by Perfect Game as the #4 HS 3B in this draft class (albeit with the caveat that some projected 3B like Nolan Gorman were ranked as SS or at other positions). Regardless this isn't a case of finding a virtual unknown (think Mauricio Dubon) but drafting a HS guy with some pedigree who many probably thought would honor his commitment to FSU for whatever reason. His batting line in the GCL was really, *really* impressive. I’m hard-pressed to remember a guy out of HS who did anything like it. The plate discipline just looks fantastic, and 5 HR? Wow...what a steal he looks like right now. Just an absolute gem of a find. New binky alert!
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Post by telson13 on Aug 31, 2018 19:06:57 GMT -5
Also good timing for those who have Globe access and can check out this Speier article on Howlett. It seems as though scouts and coaches were unanimously impressed with him in the GCL which I think helps justify the jump up in rankings on top of his impressive numbers. I don't have time to dig up a bunch of old articles at the moment, but he certainly wasn't an unknown on the HS circuit. In fact, it sounds like he was more of a guy tracking like a top round pick as an underclassmen and then scuffled a little bit as a senior which may have dropped his stock. Even still, he was rated by Perfect Game as the #4 HS 3B in this draft class (albeit with the caveat that some projected 3B like Nolan Gorman were ranked as SS or at other positions). Regardless this isn't a case of finding a virtual unknown (think Mauricio Dubon) but drafting a HS guy with some pedigree who many probably thought would honor his commitment to FSU for whatever reason. Btw...lol on the Sox getting three of the top 4, two after round 10. This could end up being a 2011-like draft, if Casas and Decker play to their pedigrees and Northcutt and Howlett continue to look as good as they have. Add in Feltman and Duran, and maybe a Ward or Granberg or Kottam pans out...I was happy with the draft back then but it’s looking even better now.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 1, 2018 12:55:51 GMT -5
Do you also notice they could hit on a little bit of everything. Imagine with the budget we had . LoL.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 1, 2018 17:54:47 GMT -5
Wondering if Steve, or sarasoxer got to see him more than just the cpl games i did this summer? Maybe more info on what they noticed about him? I remember the 1st time I saw him, I was actually with Sarasoxer, and mentioned how impressive he was physically for an 18 year old. In the limited amount I saw him, only twice, he totally stood out. I did see one of his homers, and it was impressive, but I keep going back to his maturity. He sure didn't come off as a recent HS grad. It will be interesting how 2019 goes for him. Would certainly think he will be sharing 3rd with Northcut or Casas in Greenville. With Diaz coming to the GCL next year, we seem to have an abundance of 3rd baseman! Can't forget Chavis and Dalbec
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Post by telson13 on Sept 1, 2018 22:34:10 GMT -5
Wondering if Steve, or sarasoxer got to see him more than just the cpl games i did this summer? Maybe more info on what they noticed about him? I remember the 1st time I saw him, I was actually with Sarasoxer, and mentioned how impressive he was physically for an 18 year old. In the limited amount I saw him, only twice, he totally stood out. I did see one of his homers, and it was impressive, but I keep going back to his maturity. He sure didn't come off as a recent HS grad. It will be interesting how 2019 goes for him. Would certainly think he will be sharing 3rd with Northcut or Casas in Greenville. With Diaz coming to the GCL next year, we seem to have an abundance of 3rd baseman! Can't forget Chavis and Dalbec Yeah, the 3b depth in the system is ridiculous. They basically have players who are legit prospects at every level except Salem, and a traffic jam in Greenville. Chavis looks like he hasn’t missed a beat; Dalbec will obvi repeat AA but hasn’t looked completely overmatched; Casas, Howlett, and Northcutt almost all assuredly will see Greenville time (DH/1b/3b rotation), and Diaz looks like he could be the real deal...see what happens w instructs. Great to see a system restock especially at a premium defensive position.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on Sept 2, 2018 22:28:44 GMT -5
Even Salem. Sleeping on Nishioka.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 3, 2018 0:57:37 GMT -5
Even Salem. Sleeping on Nishioka. Wow...that’s awful too because I’ve been boosting him since the draft. And I’ve absolutely been asleep on his continued development. Part of it might be his just amazing consistency. But you’re absolutely right: gotta love the cerebral DIII Sr. sign who takes walks and hits LD...to a .318/.399/.503 line, with a 28/48/24 LD/GB/FB % breakdown and 36/30/34 pull/ctr/oppo. Talk about an “all-fields” approach. I hadn’t checked his line in weeks...and it’s really pretty outstanding. Like, *really* outstanding. His HR/FB rate at 19% is solid...but the high GB rate...he might be an ideal launch-angle change candidate. He’s got an XBH every 10-11 PA...so he’s making hard contact and appears to have a very good eye (0.081 IsoD/ over 9% walk rate). And despite a 0.185 IsoP his K rate is still barely 20%. I’m very curious if anyone has any first-hand looks at his defense. But even just as a hitter, he looks like a dark horse draft steal. Thanks for the reminder!
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Post by Coreno on Sept 3, 2018 6:54:52 GMT -5
Nishioka is in Greenville. Tobias has been manning third in Salem.
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Post by prangerx on Sept 3, 2018 11:59:16 GMT -5
Our system could use a good story like this. Hopefully he ends up being the real deal.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 3, 2018 14:39:38 GMT -5
Nishioka is in Greenville. Tobias has been manning third in Salem. But the assumption is that he’ll start next year in Salem, meaning they have legit prospects (and I think Nishioka, despite his pedigree, belongs in that class) at every level in the system.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 3, 2018 15:31:49 GMT -5
Nishioka is in Greenville. Tobias has been manning third in Salem. But the assumption is that he’ll start next year in Salem, meaning they have legit prospects (and I think Nishioka, despite his pedigree, belongs in that class) at every level in the system. Ah. Didn't realize we were referring to next yer, but that makes sense. I like Nishioka, but I want to see him challenged more. I'm also not sure if he's a necessarily a 3B or just an infielder who's played third this year due to roster fit. He seems more in the mold of like a Deiner Lopez, Mike Miller, I guess even Lin type of utility infielder that plays all over on their way through the system. If we're grouping him in with those guys he's probably one of the most talented, along with Lin. I'd like to see him in Portland midseason next year. Which would open a spot in Salem for if any of those HS picks are absolutely tearing it up in Greenville. It would be pretty aggressive to promote any of those guys in their first full season but considering the logjam those guys will create, I could see them doing it especially if that guy is Casas, considering his pedigree (though the lost time this year could hurt the chances they are aggressive with him).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 15, 2018 10:08:08 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 16, 2018 7:02:21 GMT -5
As I said to Ian when he texted me part of that writeup, it make sense they were thinking of playing him in left field - the GCL roster was incredibly thin out there, even after the draft, and obviously stacked at third base even after Casas went down.
It'll be very interesting to see how they play this going forward. Howlett, Northcut, Casas, and Granberg will be competing for spots in Greenville next spring. I could see Granberg almost having to go up to Salem just to open up the necessary corner IF at-bats.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 16, 2018 11:41:01 GMT -5
The Speier story on Howlett covers a bit of ground and brings up some of the limitations of scouting. Hargett, the Sox' North Florida area scout points out that Howlett was walked 42 times in 109 plate appearances which is ridiculous. If you're a scout on a grand tour with the chance to watch one or two of a player's games and he only swings the bat a few times, that's a tough way to develop a report on the guy. You might decide that the local HS pitching talent is just too wild, or that the player has an advanced approach at the plate and he's dangerous enough that no one wants to pitch to him. The former is probably what you see 95% of the time, while the latter is much rarer.
Turns out this 18 year-old has outstanding discipline and the ability to pick a pitch to drive, at least that's what it looks like so far. Even the minuscule Lowell numbers highlight that. He shows up for a few games, gets 21 PAs, walks 6 times, with a HR and a double tucked in there. That's a really tantalizing small sample, one with a lot of promise.
There are probably a few teams kicking themselves at this point.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 14, 2019 10:50:27 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 14, 2019 11:46:29 GMT -5
I will say it. Those first few sentences from BA re: Casas and Howlett confirm to me that the Sox Farm has indeed made the turn from freefall to resurrection. 2019 will be an exciting year.for the progress of a dozen solid prospects like these from Chavis to Flores to hopefully more smart signings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 14, 2019 12:34:58 GMT -5
I will say it. Those first few sentences from BA re: Casas and Howlett confirm to me that the Sox Farm has indeed made the turn from freefall to resurrection. 2019 will be an exciting year.for the progress of a dozen solid prospects like these from Chavis to Flores to hopefully more smart signings. Gerry, I have high hopes - and Howlett is definitely one of the higher hopes - for the 2018 draft that the Sox had, but I think it's a little too soon to call it a resurrection. I think I'd feel better if the Sox had more (any) guys that could project to be more of a #2/#3 type starter than backend starter/reliever. And catching is still thin in the system. I have hope for Kottam, but the catching in the system is extremely thin. I'll always think what could have been with Daniel Flores - don't think I'll ever be able to fully wrap my head around the awful tragedy that happened to him. How about we call it a promising beginning? Hopefully the Sox do well in the international draft coming up and can somehow draft well in June despite their position in the draft.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 14, 2019 14:27:09 GMT -5
I will say it. Those first few sentences from BA re: Casas and Howlett confirm to me that the Sox Farm has indeed made the turn from freefall to resurrection. 2019 will be an exciting year.for the progress of a dozen solid prospects like these from Chavis to Flores to hopefully more smart signings. Gerry, I have high hopes - and Howlett is definitely one of the higher hopes - for the 2018 draft that the Sox had, but I think it's a little too soon to call it a resurrection. I think I'd feel better if the Sox had more (any) guys that could project to be more of a #2/#3 type starter than backend starter/reliever. And catching is still thin in the system. I have hope for Kottam, but the catching in the system is extremely thin. I'll always think what could have been with Daniel Flores - don't think I'll ever be able to fully wrap my head around the awful tragedy that happened to him. How about we call it a promising beginning? Hopefully the Sox do well in the international draft coming up and can somehow draft well in June despite their position in the draft. Promising beginning may be a better choice of words. Perhaps these solid players at various stages of development plus more good signings in 2019 represent more of a near term resurrection. What strikes me clearly is that even as the Sox won the WS and are entering their fourth consecutive competitve season, the freefall from “investing” the Farm has bottomed out and has again become, as you say, promising. 2018 was a good year for the entire Sox system, and we can legitimately hope for similar success in 2019.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 14, 2019 14:28:18 GMT -5
I will say it. Those first few sentences from BA re: Casas and Howlett confirm to me that the Sox Farm has indeed made the turn from freefall to resurrection. 2019 will be an exciting year.for the progress of a dozen solid prospects like these from Chavis to Flores to hopefully more smart signings. Gerry, I have high hopes - and Howlett is definitely one of the higher hopes - for the 2018 draft that the Sox had, but I think it's a little too soon to call it a resurrection. I think I'd feel better if the Sox had more (any) guys that could project to be more of a #2/#3 type starter than backend starter/reliever. And catching is still thin in the system. I have hope for Kottam, but the catching in the system is extremely thin. I'll always think what could have been with Daniel Flores - don't think I'll ever be able to fully wrap my head around the awful tragedy that happened to him. How about we call it a promising beginning? Hopefully the Sox do well in the international draft coming up and can somehow draft well in June despite their position in the draft. The 2018 draft (and 2017 IFA class) looks like it could be very good, but I agree that some brake-pumping is warranted. All the first two sentences say for me is that the Red Sox drafted and signed three high school guys who play the same position. They're certainly doing a very good job rebuilding, but that's going to take a while and must include player development work to match the amateur scouting work. Remember, part of the reason that 9 of the top 20 on the site are from the 2018 draft and 2017 IFA class is that they're potentially very good... and part of it is that there wasn't much there to keep that from happening. To end with something positive though, when we were recording the last podcast, Ian and I agreed that it's hard to say that the 2018 draft isn't poised to easily be the best Red Sox draft since the 2011 masterpiece.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 14, 2019 16:09:10 GMT -5
Gerry, I have high hopes - and Howlett is definitely one of the higher hopes - for the 2018 draft that the Sox had, but I think it's a little too soon to call it a resurrection. I think I'd feel better if the Sox had more (any) guys that could project to be more of a #2/#3 type starter than backend starter/reliever. And catching is still thin in the system. I have hope for Kottam, but the catching in the system is extremely thin. I'll always think what could have been with Daniel Flores - don't think I'll ever be able to fully wrap my head around the awful tragedy that happened to him. How about we call it a promising beginning? Hopefully the Sox do well in the international draft coming up and can somehow draft well in June despite their position in the draft. The 2018 draft (and 2017 IFA class) looks like it could be very good, but I agree that some brake-pumping is warranted. All the first two sentences say for me is that the Red Sox drafted and signed three high school guys who play the same position. They're certainly doing a very good job rebuilding, but that's going to take a while and must include player development work to match the amateur scouting work. Remember, part of the reason that 9 of the top 20 on the site are from the 2018 draft and 2017 IFA class is that they're potentially very good... and part of it is that there wasn't much there to keep that from happening. To end with something positive though, when we were recording the last podcast, Ian and I agreed that it's hard to say that the 2018 draft isn't poised to easily be the best Red Sox draft since the 2011 masterpiece. I agree that 2018 was the best draft in years, but I would also like to add that a lot of these guys have a lot more risk attached because they went for a lot of power at the expense of possible hit tool upside, which was a change in their philosophy. It seems to me that the safest position player prospects have the hit tool as their #1 tool. We all knew that Mookie, Benintendi and Devers were practically sure things, while we also knew that Moncada was not. Casas, Decker, Cottam, Northcut and Howlett all seem to have plus or better raw power and questionable to average at best hit tools. They're going to have to adjust and overcome that possible limitation and that's a tough one to overcome if the scouting reports are 100% accurate (which they rarely are). I am super excited about Duran though and think it's relatively safe to call him a future major league player. Another good season from him and let the Ellsbury comps begin. I see either Duran or Gilberto Jimenez as the Red Sox future CF, and I love prospects like them. Plus hit tool and plus plus speed which usually leads to plus defense eventually. They seem like similar type of players. I'm also super excited about Feltman and think he'll be pitching important innings for the Sox this season. He's probably the least risky pick, other than the fact that he's a pitcher and TINSTAAPP.
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Post by cdj on Jan 14, 2019 19:42:13 GMT -5
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Post by jchang on Jan 14, 2019 20:08:18 GMT -5
I think I'd feel better if the Sox had more (any) guys that could project to be more of a #2/#3 type starter than backend starter/reliever. It does seem peculiar that we have scored big on several position prospects, both through draft and Int, but not with pitching. Normally, a clear cut #2 pitcher does last past the top 10 or so in the draft, and we missed in our few chances when drafting high. Even so, with a $200M roster, we can have 5-6 free agents in the 20-30M range, which is sufficient to cover the 1-3 starters + 2 premium position players.
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