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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by telson13 on Sept 15, 2018 23:23:48 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo suggested today in the Globe that Vazquez might be a relatively coveted player in the off-season, given the dearth of quality catching. That would make Swihart the starter (hooray, IMO), and Leon the backup (ideally, idk...40-60 games?). What are peoples’ thoughts on this? There’s significant risk to trading a C, again because of the state of MLB catching. Also, I think Wilson Ramos would be a terrific sign (no QO, solid defensively, very good offensively), but that would mean trading Leon or Swihart, the latter approach being a major risk given his upside and the likely limited timeframe of a Ramos deal. If Swihart really is the answer, too, I think he ought to be a 110-G catcher and get 15-25 games elsewhere. No sense in paying Ramos to sit. And Leon really is excellent everywhere but on offense, making him a terrific backup.
C and 1b (and we’ll see what happens there with Moreland/Pearce; Ockimey might be a viable Moreland replacement fairly soon, so re-upping with Pearce, who’s been absolutely terrific, might be a good idea). Trading Vazquez might net some legit minor league talent, and it’ll save a few million $. Moreover, I think Swihart is on the verge of fulfilling enough of his promise to be a viable, very inexpensive player at a tough position. The Sox also have a reasonable backup option in Reí at AA. He might be ready as early as next September or possibly even pre-deadline. The Sox have several needs (closer if Kimbrel is gone, plus another pen arm or two; RHSP...maybe Charlie Morton? Eovaldi? Trade for a young buy-low guy and stash him in the 5 spot?; possibly 2b depending on Pedey, though I like Lin), and could really stand to boost the farm. Tough to take on risk with a WS-caliber team though, although they will need to be creative and bold to extend their closing window.
Ideas?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 16, 2018 11:15:38 GMT -5
As bad as Vaquez has been this year, it still is a tough call. They haven't committed to Swihart as a full time catcher, and they may see him as having value as a multi-position player.
I love the idea of Ramos, if for nothing else, it is addition by subtraction from any team he plays on that we oppose. IIRC, the guy kills us.
I don't know what market there is, but your definitely selling low. It is a question whether the catching shortage would inflate his value, based on his performance. He has been bad this year. He is cheap also, so that may help his value.
Kind of a situation you don't see often.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2018 11:48:37 GMT -5
Almost certainly have to dump one. I don’t buy Swihart as a utility guy: he’s got potential to be a great hitting catcher, but not a great hitting left fielder.
Leon has too good a rapport with the pitchers to let go, and, ironically, the least trade value.
In short, CV is the odd man out. I trade him — maybe with a prospect package— for a bullpen arm. And I don’t mean setup arm, but a Kimbrel replacement. This could mean high risk, but it has to be done.
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Post by jchang on Sept 16, 2018 12:35:41 GMT -5
Lets not say: dump one of the three catchers. We are open to a stupendous offer for an extremely talented player under contract at a friendly rate.
also, anyone reactivating an old thread like this should edit the title, I almost had a heart attack
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2018 13:03:29 GMT -5
Well the problem of not having depth in AAA would remain if they can't find a AAA replacement catcher with options. They are not easy to find. You kind of have to develop your own.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2018 13:59:07 GMT -5
Well the problem of not having depth in AAA would remain if they can't find a AAA replacement catcher with options. They are not easy to find. You kind of have to develop your own. The Sox have Austin Rei in AA, but admittedly I don't know if he's still all that close or could be a capable backup at least soon. I'd rather prefer to trade Leon at this point. Take away these pitcher's binky. I was all for Leon staying on this team and being a good backup, but Cora won't take him away from guys like Porcello, Sale, and maybe even Price now too. I was all for trading Vazquez, but if the manager is going to give too much time to Leon (when he doesn't deserve it because he can't hit), then something needs to be done to get rid of that element.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2018 15:11:23 GMT -5
Well the problem of not having depth in AAA would remain if they can't find a AAA replacement catcher with options. They are not easy to find. You kind of have to develop your own. The Sox have Austin Rei in AA, but admittedly I don't know if he's still all that close or could be a capable backup at least soon. I'd rather prefer to trade Leon at this point. Take away these pitcher's binky. I was all for Leon staying on this team and being a good backup, but Cora won't take him away from guys like Porcello, Sale, and maybe even Price now too. I was all for trading Vazquez, but if the manager is going to give too much time to Leon (when he doesn't deserve it because he can't hit), then something needs to be done to get rid of that element. I'm going to say that Cora and all of the people involved in feeding him information are smarter/way more informed than we are.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 16, 2018 17:09:44 GMT -5
Only if the price is right would I trade any of the 3.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2018 17:32:30 GMT -5
Only if the price is right would I trade any of the 3. I don't see how you can go through another season where Blake Swihart gets 100 at bats through the first 2-3 months all over again. The Sox got fortunate this year and was able to carry Swihart all year with the Vazquez injury (which was unfortunate). The Sox need to trade for a AAA catcher with options remaining if you're worried about catching depth.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 16, 2018 17:57:59 GMT -5
First off; If Dombrowski trades for another middle relief pitcher during the off season he needs to be run out of town.
I still think Vazquez is & is viewed by the Sox as the long term plan as the starting Catcher. I don't think he will be or should be traded.
I think Leon has 2 years of arbitration left & Swihart has 4 (might be 3, I'm not positive). I think that makes Swihart (along with his versatility & athleticism) more valuable in a trade. I'd like to see Swihart moved in some kind of package for a Starting Pitcher.
Vazquez & Leon are the 2 they should keep.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2018 18:38:46 GMT -5
If you're trading Swihart now, it better be for something good. Top 5 prospect or a talented pitcher with multiple years of control or you don't trade him.
I have no clue that the Sox do here. It's hard to gauge how they feel about the catching situation. I just hope they at least opened their eyes on how bad Vazquez and Leon have been offensively this year. They both had unacceptable years there (offensively) even from the perspective of a regular hitting catcher in MLB.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2018 19:18:24 GMT -5
Keeping all 3 again next year is untenable. For all the talk of how versatile Swihart is, he's started just 12 games at a position other than catcher. He's entered games as a defensive replacement in another 14 and also moved from catcher to 3B in a game. Meanwhile, he's started 14 games at catcher and finished another 11, with most of that action behind the plate coming after July 11. It feels like they've figured out that he's a catcher who can also play other positions if needed, not a utility player who can catch, which is kind of what they needed him to be before Vazquez went down.
Unless, say, they're not going to also keep two first basemen or they're not going to keep a fifth outfielder, I don't see how there's room to do this again. For most of the season, Swihart was essentially a Rule 5 pick, stashed so they wouldn't lose him. They almost DFA'ed him once and they probably would've had to eventually if Vazquez hadn't gotten hurt.
Given the state of catching in MLB, they can find a trade partner for one of the three. Consider that 27 MLB catchers got at least 100 PA at the position and had a wRC+ of under 80 (Yes, two were Leon and Vazquez.).
The odd man out really should be Vazquez. I've been trumpeting them making a commitment to Swihart, even at least as the backup, for a while now. Leon handles the staff in a way you can't deny. Vazquez's contract makes it a shade trickier, but I think they can find a trade partner. The move is probably to go into camp with all three and move one, honestly, once a team hoping to contend has an injury or something. But I think Vazquez's defensive reputation has been overstated for a long time, in part because his arm can be spectacular. Unless they think this year is a blip for Vazquez that he will recover from, as he hasn't even been that great defensively (Swihart's been better at throwing basestealers out, believe it or not), he really feels like the guy that should go.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on Sept 16, 2018 21:20:55 GMT -5
Keeping all 3 again next year is untenable. For all the talk of how versatile Swihart is, he's started just 12 games at a position other than catcher. He's entered games as a defensive replacement in another 14 and also moved from catcher to 3B in a game. Meanwhile, he's started 14 games at catcher and finished another 11, with most of that action behind the plate coming after July 11. It feels like they've figured out that he's a catcher who can also play other positions if needed, not a utility player who can catch, which is kind of what they needed him to be before Vazquez went down. Unless, say, they're not going to also keep two first basemen or they're not going to keep a fifth outfielder, I don't see how there's room to do this again. For most of the season, Swihart was essentially a Rule 5 pick, stashed so they wouldn't lose him. They almost DFA'ed him once and they probably would've had to eventually if Vazquez hadn't gotten hurt. Given the state of catching in MLB, they can find a trade partner for one of the three. Consider that 27 MLB catchers got at least 100 PA at the position and had a wRC+ of under 80 (Yes, two were Leon and Vazquez.). The odd man out really should be Vazquez. I've been trumpeting them making a commitment to Swihart, even at least as the backup, for a while now. Leon handles the staff in a way you can't deny. Vazquez's contract makes it a shade trickier, but I think they can find a trade partner. The move is probably to go into camp with all three and move one, honestly, once a team hoping to contend has an injury or something. But I think Vazquez's defensive reputation has been overstated for a long time, in part because his arm can be spectacular. Unless they think this year is a blip for Vazquez that he will recover from, as he hasn't even been that great defensively (Swihart's been better at throwing basestealers out, believe it or not), he really feels like the guy that should go. Pretty much agree here. Although perhaps the conversation should include possible return? Some GM has a boner for Swihart like this sit and offers something nice, that might change my mind a little. Actually decent depth at catcher in our system. Rei surprised me in AA by not being a black hole at the plate this year. Nunez and healthy Baldwin.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2018 21:33:44 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree about the depth at catcher. Given the year Baldwin had, marred by injury, there isn't a guy I'd even peg as an MLB backup at the position. We discussed not naming an All-Star catcher in our site awards. The lack of depth at the position is exactly why they needed to hang onto all three. Rei was ok and he is in my personal top 60, but I'm not sure there's more than an up-and-down guy along the lines of a Federowicz there, and I'm not sure Baldwin's a lock to stay at catcher, especially if these injury woes are indicative.
I get what you're saying on return, but the fact is that any of the three could be your starting catcher next year. This isn't like having three guys who play the same position in AA/A+ and looking at what the MLB return will be. The goal is to put the best team on the field next year, and I don't think the three have any enormous disparity in what they'll return.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 16, 2018 21:51:46 GMT -5
I hope Cole Kottam can be a legit catching prospect down the line, but it's way too early to tell.
As far as the current situation goes I think they have to go with Leon right now. Kind of like the Sox did the right thing going with David Ross those last 3 games of the Series (a good Farrell move!) over Saltalamacchia.
The pitchers are very comfortable with Leon so he should be their main catcher in the post-season.
But once it's 2019, the Sox have to find out what they have in Blake Swihart for once and for all.
He looked like he was heading for a promising catching career with the Sox before he was scapegoated for the first week of the 2016 season and then he got hurt playing another position which affected his offense, and then he rusted on the bench, which further helped his offense to deteriorate.
I truly believe there's a guy in there that can hit .275 with a .320 OBP and a .400 SA and can improve behind the plate enough to be a decent to good catcher.
The guy I described can bat 7th, 8th, or 9th and not be a black hole in the lineup like the Sox have had at the catchers' spot for the longest time.
So in 2019 I'd make that Swihart's job to lose. I'd let him play the bulk of the time.
I'd keep Leon because if Swihart flops you know you have a catcher the pitchers like and trust.
Swihart and Leon bring different elements of the game and I think can be complementary for each other.
But Vazquez is a guy who makes soft contact and did so even during his .290 season. His defense is overrated or at least I think it is.
He hits closer to Leon and defensively I think he's closer to Swihart. He's on a reasonable contract and has trade value. He might only return a middle reliever, but perhaps a good one or one with upside. That could be valuable for the Red Sox, a lot more valuable than carrying 3 catchers anyways. I definitely would deal Vazquez and let Swihart have his opportunity starting in 2019.
They will have to get a catcher with options just in case of injury to carry at Pawtucket in 2019 as well.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 17, 2018 0:30:53 GMT -5
Only if the price is right would I trade any of the 3. I don't see how you can go through another season where Blake Swihart gets 100 at bats through the first 2-3 months all over again. The Sox got fortunate this year and was able to carry Swihart all year with the Vazquez injury (which was unfortunate). The Sox need to trade for a AAA catcher with options remaining if you're worried about catching depth. Yes you can. The season has been super no reason why you can't do this catcher juggling again if need be. Blake has to do what the Sox tell him. Too bad if he doesn't like it.Further, Blake just might beat one of them out. If he can't he can compete with 1b, 3b and OF as a super sub. It's not about catching depth. we see Vaz can't hit. With only 2 catchers they likely won't pinch hit for him. Keeping 3 imo makes the most sense unless you get very good value. The price has to be right. The heck with if Swihart is happy or not. as we hear form Cora about the pitchers, unlike last year eh tells them when they are pitching (within reason and depends on the star I expect)not as interested as Farrell was in how they feel.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,830
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Post by cdj on Sept 17, 2018 1:31:33 GMT -5
Food for thought:
Last time I checked using Baseball Savant (for whatever reason it’s not loading for me right now) the arm strength and pop time were as follows
Swihart: 7th best arm in the league, 18th best pop time Leon: 34 and 19 Vazquez: 55 and 91
Now if you make the minimum 10 games caught they each bump up a couple spots.
This was as of 9/6
Leon obviously handles the pitching staff the best. I don’t think Vazquez is particularly good at that, and he’s no longer particularly great defensively in general. Swihart is better in the running game these days. He’s better at the dish. I think there is more upside there- definitely offensively, and now I think the argument can be made defensively. The raw tools and athleticism are there for Swihart to be a very good defensive catcher, with time I expect him to develop a better understanding of how to do things like handle a pitching staff and frame
I go with the two switch hitters
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 17, 2018 11:45:51 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree about the depth at catcher. Given the year Baldwin had, marred by injury, there isn't a guy I'd even peg as an MLB backup at the position. We discussed not naming an All-Star catcher in our site awards. The lack of depth at the position is exactly why they needed to hang onto all three. Rei was ok and he is in my personal top 60, but I'm not sure there's more than an up-and-down guy along the lines of a Federowicz there, and I'm not sure Baldwin's a lock to stay at catcher, especially if these injury woes are indicative. I get what you're saying on return, but the fact is that any of the three could be your starting catcher next year. This isn't like having three guys who play the same position in AA/A+ and looking at what the MLB return will be. The goal is to put the best team on the field next year, and I don't think the three have any enormous disparity in what they'll return. 100% agree. I think what they have at catcher right now is pretty good despite how it looks. There is some real value in not having to rely on any single catcher for more than 80-90 games, especially if they're all reasonably capable of being an average or better catcher, which they've all shown at points. No real reason why they shouldn't go into next year with a planned 40/40/20 split. Brock Holt will hopefully be gone next year so Swihart can easily get a lot of his at-bats elsewhere around the diamond.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 17, 2018 14:47:33 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree about the depth at catcher. Given the year Baldwin had, marred by injury, there isn't a guy I'd even peg as an MLB backup at the position. We discussed not naming an All-Star catcher in our site awards. The lack of depth at the position is exactly why they needed to hang onto all three. Rei was ok and he is in my personal top 60, but I'm not sure there's more than an up-and-down guy along the lines of a Federowicz there, and I'm not sure Baldwin's a lock to stay at catcher, especially if these injury woes are indicative. I get what you're saying on return, but the fact is that any of the three could be your starting catcher next year. This isn't like having three guys who play the same position in AA/A+ and looking at what the MLB return will be. The goal is to put the best team on the field next year, and I don't think the three have any enormous disparity in what they'll return. 100% agree. I think what they have at catcher right now is pretty good despite how it looks. There is some real value in not having to rely on any single catcher for more than 80-90 games, especially if they're all reasonably capable of being an average or better catcher, which they've all shown at points. No real reason why they shouldn't go into next year with a planned 40/40/20 split. Brock Holt will hopefully be gone next year so Swihart can easily get a lot of his at-bats elsewhere around the diamond. Brock Holt has one more year left of control. Lin and Marco Hernandez has option years left. I doubt Holt is gone next year for depth reasons alone. That and the Sox made him the face of their Jimmy Fund foundation practically. I don't see it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 17, 2018 14:58:52 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree about the depth at catcher. Given the year Baldwin had, marred by injury, there isn't a guy I'd even peg as an MLB backup at the position. We discussed not naming an All-Star catcher in our site awards. The lack of depth at the position is exactly why they needed to hang onto all three. Rei was ok and he is in my personal top 60, but I'm not sure there's more than an up-and-down guy along the lines of a Federowicz there, and I'm not sure Baldwin's a lock to stay at catcher, especially if these injury woes are indicative. I get what you're saying on return, but the fact is that any of the three could be your starting catcher next year. This isn't like having three guys who play the same position in AA/A+ and looking at what the MLB return will be. The goal is to put the best team on the field next year, and I don't think the three have any enormous disparity in what they'll return. 100% agree. I think what they have at catcher right now is pretty good despite how it looks. There is some real value in not having to rely on any single catcher for more than 80-90 games, especially if they're all reasonably capable of being an average or better catcher, which they've all shown at points. No real reason why they shouldn't go into next year with a planned 40/40/20 split. Brock Holt will hopefully be gone next year so Swihart can easily get a lot of his at-bats elsewhere around the diamond. I don't see Brock Holt being let go since he has a year left of control and has put together a nice little season this year. Nunez on the other hand I hope they decline his option and move on.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2018 15:00:17 GMT -5
100% agree. I think what they have at catcher right now is pretty good despite how it looks. There is some real value in not having to rely on any single catcher for more than 80-90 games, especially if they're all reasonably capable of being an average or better catcher, which they've all shown at points. No real reason why they shouldn't go into next year with a planned 40/40/20 split. Brock Holt will hopefully be gone next year so Swihart can easily get a lot of his at-bats elsewhere around the diamond. Brock Holt has one more year left of control. Lin and Marco Hernandez has option years left. I doubt Holt is gone next year for depth reasons alone. That and the Sox made him the face of their Jimmy Fund foundation practically. I don't see it. Agree. Holt has been quite useful. Pedroia may or may not be back at full strength next year. There can be room for both Holt and Lin if need be. Hernandez will be back in the minors getting playing time after being injured. Holt can play just about any position and is even showing himself to be a useful pinch-hitter. A healthy Holt is a handy guy to have around as long as he doesn't have to play too much, but he is a good insurance policy for Pedroia. Nunez will be around, too, but he's more of Devers insurance if Devers continues to struggle. Using Swihart as a utility man is a waste of his talent. He needs to catch and that should be his primary position - that's where his bat plays up the most.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 17, 2018 15:21:21 GMT -5
Lets keep the thread relevant to the catcher situation in 2019 and not make this a catch-all roster discussion. Thanks.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 17, 2018 23:24:25 GMT -5
Almost certainly have to dump one. I don’t buy Swihart as a utility guy: he’s got potential to be a great hitting catcher, but not a great hitting left fielder. Leon has too good a rapport with the pitchers to let go, and, ironically, the least trade value. In short, CV is the odd man out. I trade him — maybe with a prospect package— for a bullpen arm. And I don’t mean setup arm, but a Kimbrel replacement. This could mean high risk, but it has to be done. I think the major component of his value as a utility player is as one who can catch passably, maybe even at an average or slightly above-average defensive level eventually. He definitely doesn’t look like he’d be a “good” LF/1b option, but utility players’ value tends to lie more in their representing a small to moderate drop-off (depending on the starter), versus a catastrophic one. In that case, if he’s a split-time C (70-90 g) who puts up a 110 wRC+ (I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt on his age, pedigree, and injuries), he’s an *excellent* utility option at just about any position he can play defensively close to average. And, he’s an above-average catcher. He also provides switch-hitting value. Even at a 95 wRC+, he’s an excellent player to have because of the catching (provided he’s fringe or better defensively). It’s tough to play Leon more than, say 40-50 starts, because the offense is so bad. But if you believe defensive metrics and pitcher-C ERA, and the “intangibles” reports, he’s a tough guy to give up, especially as you say because his trade value is destroyed by the anemic offense. I think keeping an offense-first guy who can play multiple positions, and a defense-first backup, makes the most sense. I’m of a similar mind re:Vazquez, but I’m also really conflicted about adding Ramos. He’d cost nothing in prospect terms, and he’s a clearly above-avg catcher. He’d also be a solid trade chip at the deadline. But then, you’re talking about Swihart losing very valuable development time/PA. Even if a lot of that came from Leon, then why keep Leon?
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Post by telson13 on Sept 17, 2018 23:36:45 GMT -5
The catching situation looks really bad statistically. There are 67 catchers in mlb who have currently contributed a positive WAR in 2018, none play for the Red Sox. Not that I'm a huge fan of WAR overall, but I think it highlights that the catching in Boston has been quite bad this year. There's not much hope for improvement either. Leon has provided negative value in 2 of his 4 years in Boston, including this year. Vazquez was at 1.1 WAR over 99 games last year, which might be his ceiling at this point. That 1.1 was good for 28th best in baseball in 2017. The only internal hope for next year is Swihart, but even though he's shown a high ceiling at times he's never sustained it. I would like to see him get a legitimate, honest shot next year like Chris had advocated for earlier. 4 out of every 5 games until at least the all-star break. However, if he can't do it then we have zero internal options for a league average or better catcher for the next 5 years. That’s exactly why I wonder if they should sign Ramos, go with three (40/40/20 split), and trade Ramos come deadline time if Swihart looks like the real deal. If they trade Vazquez early in the off-season (I prefer prospects, simply because I don’t trust relievers and I think they can be found on the open market), those $ would cover maybe half (?) of a Ramos deal, and his prorated excess salary over Vazquez would be fairly smal ($2-3M if traded in July). They doubly increase their talent return for a small $ outlay by flipping Ramos, and have a proven backup plan if Swihart doesn’t pan out or if there’s another injury. Swihart’s moderate versatility means he can get some PA elsewhere and lessens the “hit” of having three C on the roster.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 17, 2018 23:59:39 GMT -5
For example, Ramos is 31 and signed a 2/$12.5M deal with TB coming off a 3.4 fWAR season with Washington at 29. Let’s say his vale is a little more clear (and a smidge higher) now, but he’s older...maybe he gets a 2/$18M deal from the Sox. He’d be making about $4.5M more AAV than Vazquez, who’s on a 3/$13.3M extension. Prorated over 90 games, that’s a cost of about $2.5M. I think it’s fairly unlikely that his deal would make him difficult to trade, provided he’s solid. The extra year might even add value as a non-rental. He’d almost certainly provide excess value in terms of WAR vs Vazquez (at $8M per WAR), and he would likewise bring some talent return on top of whatever Vazquez nets, if traded. And if Swihart doesn’t take the step forward we hope, he himself on a cheap contract with control years could be traded, and Ramos retained. Ramos hits a lot of LD and GB, so he’s probably not going to benefit much from the Wall. But he could benefit from an outstanding lineup around him. I think it’s unlikely he plays poorly enough to make himself untradable. And if he does, the Sox probably need three catchers anyway. I think hoarding some prospects also gives them capital to make a move next deadline. Try to pick off a few potential starter-to-reliever conversions in the off-season or maybe make a move for a guy like Kirby Yates, or even Andrew Miller (FA), to close.
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