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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 30, 2018 12:06:11 GMT -5
CVaz isn't really aspiring to find the Medoza line. So that's wrong. Also, Sandy is due for another Babe Ruth breakout like he has last year.
If they make the pitching staff that much better, I'm cool.
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Post by libertine on Oct 30, 2018 12:11:58 GMT -5
Yeah, Vazquez did reach it in September once all those triple A pitchers got called up around the league. But if all that matters is behind the plate who am I to say anything else but to wish Blake the best in his career.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 30, 2018 12:16:04 GMT -5
Yeah, Vazquez did reach it in September once all those triple A pitchers got called up around the league. But if all that matters is behind the plate who am I to say anything else but to wish Blake the best in his career. He was injured this year. I'm ok with him. He hit pretty well in the playoffs. Had some really hard outs, too. He may hit any empty .250, but I'm more than fine with his offense. I want the more defense from our catcher. I'm ok if they trade Leon and let Blake and CVaz split time, though.
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Post by libertine on Oct 30, 2018 12:19:41 GMT -5
Yeah, Vazquez did reach it in September once all those triple A pitchers got called up around the league. But if all that matters is behind the plate who am I to say anything else but to wish Blake the best in his career. He was injured this year. I'm ok with him. He well in the playoffs. Had some really hard outs. He may hit any empty .250, but I'm more than fine with his offense. I want the more defense from our catcher. I'm ok if they trade Leon and let Blake and CVaz split time, though. Tbf I think it will come down to who wins the internal argument in the front office. There is Varitek who views Swihart as a future all-star catcher and Cora who loves the way Leon and Vazquez handle the pitching staff.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 30, 2018 22:21:42 GMT -5
Yeah, Vazquez did reach it in September once all those triple A pitchers got called up around the league. But if all that matters is behind the plate who am I to say anything else but to wish Blake the best in his career. The argument that Christian Vazquez is a Menodza-line quality big league hitter is precisely the same as the one that Jackie Bradley, Jr. wasn't much better than one. How did that work out?
If you've actually watched the baseball games, it's clear that CV is a good hitter as a catcher, maybe even a very good one, when his mechanics and approach are right. He has good bat-to-ball skills and surprising pop. He has a track record of some unusually good season in the minors.
His problem is that he's gone huge, long stretches where his mechanics and approach have been awful, and he's been an automatic out.
Oh, yeah, I almost forgot. Last year he had a 132 wRC+ over 240 PA. Unfortunately, after the first 98 of those (122 wRC+; he was 137 over his last 142), he had 105 PA with a wRC+ of 3. Yes, 3. Not 30. 3.
I'm making an argument that as a streaky hitter, he has significant unrealized upside that he can realize simply by shortening the duration of his slumps. I made that argument about Carlos Pena when he was being released by several teams (and the Sox picked him up based on that, then had to let him go immediately before his breakout when they had a roster crunch). I made that argument about Travis Shaw before we traded him, and again immediately after. I made that argument about JBJ starting several years ago.
It's going to be tougher for a catcher to attend to proper hitting approach and mechanics because (especially on this team) they are so focused on their own pitchers and the opposing hitters. But it's reasonable to believe that it will be easier for him to do that with each year.
Here's a catcher's career:
First 1033 PA: 64 wRC+. (CV has 999 career PA with a 67 wRC+). Next 1946 PA: 94 wRC+. Next 1622 PA: 132 wRC+.
Gee, if only CV had been compared with him continually since the start of his career, that might give you extra hope that he could improve significantly as a hitter. Oh, wait ...
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 31, 2018 5:29:34 GMT -5
He was injured this year. I'm ok with him. He well in the playoffs. Had some really hard outs. He may hit any empty .250, but I'm more than fine with his offense. I want the more defense from our catcher. I'm ok if they trade Leon and let Blake and CVaz split time, though. Tbf I think it will come down to who wins the internal argument in the front office. There is Varitek who views Swihart as a future all-star catcher and Cora who loves the way Leon and Vazquez handle the pitching staff. Varitek who did not play a full season in mlb until he was 27; after a half season with a .309 obp at age 26 (Swihart's 2018 age) jason varitek look back by sickles www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/6/2849678/career-profile-and-prospect-retro-jason-varitek-retireslook back by mariners guy www.sbnation.com/2012/2/28/2829604/jason-varitek-retirement-mariners-trade
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 18:21:15 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 18:44:36 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 12, 2018 20:20:55 GMT -5
eric would be disappointed.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2018 0:33:18 GMT -5
I'm calling the Mets about Leon and targeting Ali Sanchez. Top 30 guy, but two catchers before him. Heck wouldn't even mind Patrick Mazeika behind him. Build some future depth in a very weak area and let Swihart know he's the backup. Wouldn't even mind adding a Chandler to the deal is you can get Sanchez. Like having a very good defensive catcher in the system that could be in AA by next year even if he can't hit.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 0:44:13 GMT -5
eric would be disappointed. If they get what I think CV is worth, I'll be all in on the Swihart era.
My rationale has always been about trading the guy with the greatest ratio of perceived (trade) value to actual value.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 3:24:56 GMT -5
eric would be disappointed. If they get what I think CV is worth, I'll be all in on the Swihart era. My rationale has always been about trading the guy with the greatest ratio of perceived (trade) value to actual value.
I'm more inclined to think that Leon not CVaz will be the odd man out. I'm also more inclined to believe that the Sox will prioritize the best two rather than the best return. It's not like any of them is going to net us a Tatis. Of the three, only one isn't home grown.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 3:38:36 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 16:51:59 GMT -5
I would attach Nunez and his salary with a catcher and try to dump him. Maybe you do this with Sandy Leon because he doesn't have much value regardless.
That would open up a extra 6-7 million AAV for a reliever.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 14, 2018 4:23:28 GMT -5
I would attach Nunez and his salary with a catcher and try to dump him. Maybe you do this with Sandy Leon because he doesn't have much value regardless. That would open up a extra 6-7 million AAV for a reliever. I don’t know about that. I guess if they are determined to get under the cap in 2019, but they have expressed that isn’t a priority. A healthy Nunez is an above average bench player on the field, a good Righty bat to back Devers and pinch hit, and run, and a jewel in the dugout and clubhouse, for $4M. He should be healthy. At least to start 2019. Also, Leon may be the best defensive option, best “pitcher whisperer” to help this rotation and pen navigate the WS hangover strategy discussed by Cora. Anyway, I hope they just sign a reliever and trade for prospects. Glad we don’t make these decisions.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 14, 2018 10:45:39 GMT -5
I'd like to think Leon/Swihart or Vazquez/Swihart is the combo to go with next year. Both Vaz and Leon would provide you with defensive stability with the occasional hot bat but I still like Swiharts upside. He's been kind of jerked around the last few years for various reasons largely stemmed around injuries but I don't think he kills you in the lineup or behind the plate at this point if one of the other two guys is getting the lions share. Who knows, he might be the starter by the end of the year, and I still think he could offer positional versatility as well. That last point, might become more relevant if someone like JBJ truly was on the trading block.
I suppose the fact that I almost just signed off with my name and signature is a sign I should get back to work. But in the depths of the offseason one must satisfy he's need to chat about baseball from time to time.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2018 11:39:01 GMT -5
If they get what I think CV is worth, I'll be all in on the Swihart era. My rationale has always been about trading the guy with the greatest ratio of perceived (trade) value to actual value.
I'm more inclined to think that Leon not CVaz will be the odd man out. I'm also more inclined to believe that the Sox will prioritize the best two rather than the best return. It's not like any of them is going to net us a Tatis. Of the three, only one isn't home grown. If none of the three are being over- or under-valued (or they all are to roughly the same degree), that is definitely what you do. But Leon appears to be a gifted pitch-caller and it's possible that he's significantly more underrated than the others.
I'll be surprised if CV is traded, not surprised if they trade either of the other two. I agree that Leon makes the most sense long-term. You don't need both CV and Swihart long-term if they're both 1st-division starters, which I think may well be the case. It would be cool to be able to later deal one at the top of their value, after having developed or found another top backup like Leon.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 14, 2018 11:39:57 GMT -5
Given the potential upside on Swihart and Vazquez I think León is the one you trade unless you're blown away by an offer for one of the first two.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 14, 2018 13:32:01 GMT -5
That Vazquez replaced Leon in the playoffs says what they think of each of them IMO
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Post by unitspin on Dec 14, 2018 14:07:34 GMT -5
Given the potential upside on Swihart and Vazquez I think León is the one you trade unless you're blown away by an offer for one of the first two. Exactly I'd like to see swihart with more reps behind the plate. I think with more abs he could become a more complete hitter. I could see him hitting .270 with 10 hrs and in this era of catchers that makes him extremely valuable.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2018 19:05:58 GMT -5
It's worth listing the seven teams that are reported as interested in Realmuto:
Rays Braves Mets Brewers Reds Dodgers Padres
I'll let someone else figure out what each team has for an incumbent, and whether Leon would be an upgrade.
After Realmuto is dealt, Grandal and Ramos sign. The other FAs of interest are Maldonado, Wieters, Mesoraco, and Lucroy.
I removed defense from bWAR and fWAR, averaged them, added defensive runs according to BP, and pitch-calling runs according to Fielding Bible, then prorated to 400 PA.
1.5 Maldonado 1.2 Leon 0.4 Wieters -0.2 Mesoraco -1.7 Lucroy
Leon would be the 5th best catcher available, based strictly on 2018 numbers. (Interestingly, he and Maldonado are the two guys that bWAR and fWAR agree on, ignoring defense.) He has a 7 run edge on Maldanado in pitch-calling; if it's 10 runs, he's as good.
Presumably the 4 clubs with the biggest need will grab Realmuto and the three good FA's, so it's unclear that anyone wants Leon as a starter. So the trade options would appear to be a) a contender who has a terrible backup catcher, and b) a team not in a position to trade for Realmuto for whom Leon would still be an upgrade.
I'm seriously not looking into every team's backup catcher quality! But it's clear that Leon is way above average.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 21:35:58 GMT -5
If I was the man, I'd be looking to package Leon & Workman for a better Workman.
On an unrelated note to that (I think but haven't looked), the Cubs are said to be looking for a catcher with pitching staff leadership skills. They feel that has been lacking since Ross retired. I can't think of a better fit of the skill that might be available than Leon.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 22:08:13 GMT -5
White Sox have signed McCann to a one year $2.5m deal. One less catcher, one less slot.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 22:21:13 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Dec 14, 2018 23:30:04 GMT -5
Yeah, Vazquez did reach it in September once all those triple A pitchers got called up around the league. But if all that matters is behind the plate who am I to say anything else but to wish Blake the best in his career. He was injured this year. I'm ok with him. He hit pretty well in the playoffs. Had some really hard outs, too. He may hit any empty .250, but I'm more than fine with his offense. I want the more defense from our catcher. I'm ok if they trade Leon and let Blake and CVaz split time, though. My biggest issue with trading Swihart is that it’s sell-low. Before his injury, he hit reasonably well. In just under 400 PA, he was worth 1.8 fWAR and he OPSed just over .710 in 103 games. He was unfairly demoted because, you know, John Farrell. His defense needed work, but he’s always had a strong arm and good pop times. His framing and calling has clearly gotten better. Given his use this year and erratic playing time, I’m inclined to put down the overall 64 wRC+ as a product largely of that, particularly since his performance improved quite a bit after Vazquez went down. He had 6 2b and 3 hr while hitting .250 in the second half, vs just 4 2b while hitting .207 in the first half. I think all the time off probably hurt him to start the year, too. Extrapolate his second half numbers over 400-450 PA (and I think that’s absolutely reasonable given that they were quite similar to his early-career numbers), and you’re looking at .250 with 25 or so 2b and 10-15 HR. And given that he’s still had just 600 MLB PA, he’s probably got a bit more coming. He hits a good number of LD (24% career, though that’s prob not stabilized yet, the eyeball test supports it), so his high career BABIP of .342 is probably less fluke and more just his batted ball style (the good speed obviously helps). He hits to all fields with a 40/30/30 breakdown. What all of that says to me is that he’s probably a true-talent .260-.275/.330/.400 hitter, which is quite good for a catcher. I can easily see him OPSing .800 at peak. He has a plus arm, plus pop times, throws runners out at 35-40%, and is a good base runner despite being a catcher. He’s also an above-average framer. He probably needs a lot of work calling games, and he has intermittently had problems blocking the ball. But I also think all the tools to be an above-average *defensive* catcher are there. And if it all comes together (and I really don’t think he’s all that far away, plus he’s still young for a C), you’re talking an above-average overall C who’s a 2.5-3 WAR player, possibly more. Again, pre-injury he was worth 1.8 fWAR/400 PA, or 2 fWAR per 450 PA/110-115 games...as a called-up-early-due-to-need 23 y/o. I just don’t see any way it makes sense to trade an asset like that at his near-lowest value, especially not for a team trying to limit future expenditures to extend their own players.
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